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I assume 'eventing' referred not to dying but to progressing as a result of psuedoprogression, which appears to be a relapse but is actually a sign that the treatment killed the cancer cells.
exwannabe:
Well, I for one am sorry to see you go, if you are going. For all that I did not always agree with you, you are one of the VERY few people on this board posting the 'contrarian' view who actually appeared knowledgeable on a wide range of topics relating to NWBO and the industry.
I think it apropos that of the comments to your post, most can come up with nothing better to say in reply to thousands of posts over many years than to point out a typo. Or was it a typo? Perhaps a final last clever deception to draw fire not to the content and methods of your posts but to something petty and insignificant.
Good luck!
Ike
Here is a real-world example of someone getting treatment others have no access to:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/06/24/nightmare-scenario-book-excerpt/
You really think if a billionaire makes a few calls they won't get what they want? I can assure you that Elon Musk does not have a PPO. Rich people don't need Medical Insurance, they pay far lower rates with cash as needed. That is why Universal Healthcare is 'communist' because rich people would need to pay for poor people's care.
TIL:
Joe Biden is a Billionaire.
Joe Biden has owned NWBO since 2015.
NWBO released TLD showing efficacy in 2015.
HappyLibrarian knows Joe Biden personally.
Man, Best. Day. Ever! Thanks HL, another quality post.
But you think the billionaire owner of a company that owns DC-Vax won't get his/her friends and relatives on it even if it is not available to the little people? You can't seriously believe that 1%ers use the same US Healthcare system as the other 99%.
It is absolutely possible, maybe even probable. But by waiting, NWBO management has put themselves in a much stronger position to get a better financial deal for stockholders and to ensure that the technology survives.
You can do good and make money at the same time, it just rarely happens. Usually it is make as much money as possible and then become a philanthropist to buy a legacy and some indulgences into heaven. Look at Rockefeller, Carnegie, Sackler . . . not a conscience among them.
Google, their "don't be evil" motto sure didn't hold up. The list is nigh on endless.
I assume you are joking.
Go read The Jungle and tell me that the people who owned Meat Packing plants were vegetarians.
The point is to buy it and shelve it BEFORE results. By holding out until results are published, NWBO is making a killer acquisition nearly impossible, as you suggest.
But for years now people have been pining for a buyout, saying NWBO management was stupid for thinking BP was only useful for their checkbook, talking about how BP could push this through to approval quickly, that they had more experienced management, that it was good for patients, etc.
With BP, you can never "[f]orget about the financial implications" because that is all that exists for them. They only care about bad press if it actually causes negative financial implications. If letting millions of cancer patients continue to die makes them more money than curing them, you can make a pretty safe bet on which way they will go.
So do I, I just try not to set unsupported deadlines.
Nice recap flipper44!
Every time someone talks about a buy-out I think about this sort of thing. Yeah, the big pharmaceutical companies have money and expertise. They can push through to approval. They have the management expertise to run the company after approval. But they are NOT in the business of personalized therapies. They are in the business of shots and pills. Mass produce, mass market, sell as much as you can regardless of need, efficacy, or side effects.
You need look no farther than the Oxy market to see how this all plays out. If BP bought NWBO earlier what would be their incentive to get it across the finish line and create a new Standard of Care? They can make far more money far more easily with patients getting radiation, chemo and a bunch of useless treatments, and treatments to help mitigate or mask the side-effects of those treatments, than they could by actually curing people.
The longer NWBO holds out and the farther they make it on their own, the more money BP will need to shell out and the harder it will be to bury DC-Vax in the Closet of Actual Effectiveness.
So yeah, maybe we could all be using our $5-$10 per share buyout money right now and wonder why no one ever hears about that dendric cell vaccine that had so much promise. Or, maybe we get to be part of financing an actual cure for cancer and walk away with a much higher amount per share in the coming months.
Perhaps the reason you are confused is because you are making assumptions about the company. Assuming that they are stalling results, hiding bad news, running a scam. If those things were true then they would absolutely be shouting about producing and selling DC-Vax in order to pump shares, divert attention from no TLD, make more money.
But what if . . . I know, this is a stretch and maybe you should sit down for it. But what if the company is actually, dare I say, (Dare, Dare), NOT a scam? What if they are actually in possession of a breakthrough technology and on the cusp of publishing the results of a long and successful trial?
Consider that they have not announced the changed endpoints, even though we know about them. They did not announce the MHRA certification of Sawston until after its publication was discovered. It almost suggests that they are holding tight to good news, not bad news and that they might even *gasp* have some sort of plan for rolling out news in a way that is most beneficial.
Just something to think about.
Because that is not how shorting works.
Short sellers do not just sell 200 million shares of the stock and keep selling and selling and selling to keep the price down, at least in most cases.
Option 1: Look at today. The market has been open for 2 hours, there is ~750K volume, and the price has dropped from $0.76 to $0.72. Right? No. There has probably been about 100K in volume. First, every trade an actual individual makes probably shows up as two trades for the same amount. One trade from the seller to the MM and one from the MM to the buyer at a higher price. So that covers 200K of trades. The rest are shorts selling shares to one another or to themselves.
So I bid $0.75 on 1000 shares, it is filled and then for the next hour short sellers buy and sell shares to one another for $0.748 and $0.746, and maybe back up, and then down and down, and up, and back down, and then someone buys some at $0.74, same routine, eventually they have gotten the price down to $0.72 without actually changing their position or spending any real money.
Option 2. News comes out, and lots of buyers show up, the shorts sell shares into the enthusiasm, raising the price as they go. Stock goes from $0.60 to $0.85, several millions shares are sold. Then, over the next week or three they walk the price back down to $0.70 (see option 1) and buy the shares they sold back for a gain of $0.10-$0.15 a share. Do this for 10 years. At any given time they might only have 1 million shorted or borrowed shares.
In the first case, it is all about keeping the stock price low. This reduces enthusiasm for the stock, especially when combined with a smear campaign. It also costs the company a lot more to raise capital. In addition, it allows the shorts or a potential buyer to acquire a cheap position in the stock. Finally, it can have an adverse effect on the price of a future buyout or allow institutions to buy the stock cheap after news. This option is mostly about trying to destroy the company or acquire it for a fraction of its worth.
In the second case, it is about short-term money. The shorts likely have no idea what the company does, nor do they care. The company and stock fit a profile and they automate the shorting using algorithms that can predict human behavior. People tend to buy when the price rises and sell when it drops. They make assumptions about the future based on past-performance. They panic. They create stop-loss triggers that can be manipulated by, for example, dropping the price from over $1 to $0.005 for a few transactions. While the shorts can get burned in the second scenario, the risk is minimal and over dozens and hundreds of companies they can average out losses and come out way ahead.
That is why thinking NWBO is trying to orchestrate some Short-Squeeze is not based in reality.
RE: Sir Pumpernickel
We had some truly incredible entries this year for Stupidest Argument, but I am leaning toward the latest entry "NWBO will have to run a second Phase III trial for DC-Vax L in order to gain approval as the new Standard of Care."
I am at a loss. Where do people come up with this stuff and more importantly, why are we even talking about this ridiculous nonsense? Well, at least the bar has been set pretty high (or low, depending on how you look at things) for next year. Can't wait to see what idiotic drivel people come up with when attacking TLD.
Thanks StonkMaster, nice article!
How many people who own no stock in a company and are not paid to post, post hundreds or even thousands of posts on stock bulletin boards?
Thanks as ever for your thoughtful and complete analysis, Senti. You and your posts are always such a welcome sight here.
:)
The problem with timing the market is that you need to do it twice. Even assuming that you have a 50/50 chance of guessing when a stock will go up or down, that means only a 25% chance of timing both properly.
I did really well timing TSLA this year but that was based on some pretty predictable things, although you never know if outside forces are going to wreck things. With NWBO, it is very hard to predict the timing of things, and the risk of missing out on a huge move is much higher. I have not sold any NWBO since first purchase other than about a year ago I sold and re-bought shares to log some capital gains. As you say, much more concerned about missing out on the payoff than on making some small gains here and there.
I just did. It was in the post you are responding to. They just spent 14 months since datalock without wasting time responding to attacks. If instead of doing the things they have been doing, they wasted time responding to pointless allegations in the vain hope of keeping the stock price up for shareholders at the expense of patients, then two years is a pretty conservative estimate.
So, you are thinking that NWBO is only doing one thing right now? I think it is pretty clear that they are doing quite a few things and adding unnecessary things comes at the cost of things they are doing now, without any of the benefits.
Same thing every time. For everyone screaming that NWBO should be providing more information, watch the price over the next couple of days. Without a string of PRs, the shorts are going to eat all of the enthusiasm for this milestone. The path from Datalock to Approval is far too long and NWBO simply can't cheerlead enough to maintain the share price over any sustained period.
Hope you grabbed some. 700K shares purchased in first 90 seconds. Up to $0.85. Should be a good day.
EDIT: Wrong share count.
I expect the same. Short of some other news in the next couple of days, maybe we hit $1 or so but we will likely be back in $0.60-$0.80 land again by next week.
Correct, although I don't know enough about the certification process to know how broad the certification is. I assume that it is broad enough to produce DC Vax-L and DC Vax-Direct. No idea about other drugs.
Sawston is the location of the facility. The facility is owned by NWBO. Advent is a contractor used by NWBO to produce DC vaccines. Advent is now certified to produce DC vaccines at the plant in Sawston. Meaning that NWBO can now produce ~10X as many vaccines as they could from their London facility.
Meanwhile, they are working on incorporating Flaskworks into the facility at Sawston, which would increase production capacity by orders of magnitude.
Who to believe?
scotty3371:
Yeah, dumped between hedges. Very few actual shares are for sale. I put in orders above ask and no takers. Eventually the price moves up with 1000 shares sold here and there and hundreds of shares purportedly sold below my bids.
RE: MI Dendream
RE: reachjo