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I agree that better science is typically better.... but developing a reliable screening instrument will still be incredibly useful, to direct further more invasive testing... should the science not be as wonderful initially. I like this stock a lot, for that reason... not for the hope that they will develop the perfect quantifying analytical instrument out of the gate
I think many are missing the concept that a device less accurate would still be incredibly useful in the majority of states where THC is still fully illegal. Adding to my position recently. GLTA
Love the campground idea, seems to be the industry culture fit that many competitors are missing currently. Entered a position today. GLTA
I agree. I long term still believe in the company, and think Nasdaq uplist could give additional boost... but I fear that the 3,300,000 options out there with exercise prices at $10 on average or less will begin to weigh this down... as they would add an additional 60-70 million to the market cap at these levels... which I can't justify right now based upon their royalty model and the lack of income coming in for awhile after recently monetizing royalties (which I think was smart... but leaves us in limbo). The avg volume was 5K shares a day at times in the past year... I think that as volume dries up, some will be trapped due to volume, leaving this nowhere to go but possibly down. I still plan to re-enter a position in the future, but at much lower levels (if possible). I'm very happy with my prior investment in this company and wish GLTA
Guess time will tell. Interested parties do not a deal make. Clearly upcoming study results will impact the answer to your question. Too soon to tell without data
Super quiet on here. Looking forward to trial results in the next few months
Been a fun ride everyone. Sold the rest of my shares yesterday. With the price this high, all 3.7 Million stock options previously awarded to company execs etc will likely be exercised. That would raise the total shares from 2 million to 5.7 million. I loved this stock at 7-8 bucks because the options were out of reach and the cap looked artificially low. At 20 bucks a share, 5.7 mil shares... makes this a 120 million cap company. Too much too soon imho. Especially with most of our revenue tied up for several years with the narcan stuff. Will look to re-enter in the coming months... probably a month or two after the next quarterly, when they reveal the number of options exercised. GLTA, hope you did well
I think (if my math is not too far off), results should be expected around oct 16-nov 6 range, based on time from last patient dosed, giving them 2-4 weeks to clean up data, as they stated would be needed during conference call. Agreed that we have come too far to turn back now lol.
It's notoriously difficult to find Nash type patients for trials, getting the FDA to expand the criteria was a strong move. Also shows the FDA is willing to work with them in a reasonable fashion. Some companies have to request dedicated meetings and jump through millions of hoops to get that type of exception approved. They obviously filled out the request form appropriately and with a reasonable counter claim for new criteria. They are getting things done. It's only a startup biotech... I am honestly impressed with how well they are handling things, given their size and the age of the company. Whenever things happen too quickly in the biotech world, bad things follow. They have been transparent and thorough, from what I can tell, all just my opinion. A rarity. Most startups are dumping shares and making promises right about now in the world of Wall Street biotech. Happy Thursday... countdown continues!
Excellent news that we got enrollment criteria adjusted for the lipid drug, regardless of release date. No other holdups disclosed. Looks like we are all cleared for the fun to get started soon
So I didn't want to put this in my other post, because sometimes they delete posts that they consider off topic. But I consider this on topic. If this recent price action worries you, I would encourage you to look at a stock that I consider similar, that recently went through the process. Pick any you choose. One that I followed closely that followed this pattern, was titan. You should look at the historical chart for how titan behaved, in the year leading up to phase 3 data, and the FDA approval decisions and delays. It will give you a great indication for why we are trading the way we are, and what to expect moving forward. Ignore what has happened since that other company's approval, it doesn't bear relevance to our situation. Glta and have a nice week. We are 70-85 days from data. It shall get bumpy. Patience is key. Find a good hobby to keep your mind busy as this passes, you will find yourself second guessing your decisions every time somebody drops the price on this one, especially as it gets closer to the real news... the data. Our float is so low, that nobody will be able to keep this baby down, if data is good. I feel almost certain on that. If data is good, they may decide to raise more money via ligand, and go it alone. That is best case scenario, imho. One can only hope. Seems like a lot of risk though, but ligand has deep pockets. And yes, they have a patent. And plenty of years left of patent protection, thankfully. If you google the compound name and 'patent' you can find the exact info quite easily.
Happy Tuesday
Currently No known side effects to either drug, to my knowledge. Sure that will change, every drug has side effects. They are very close in structure supposedly to naturally occurring compounds in the body, hence the lack of extra side effects. That being said, every action in the body has some sort of reaction, so there should be a few 'natural' consequences i.e. Side effects of these drugs, though those remain to be seen.
Price stuff is simple to understand. We are unknown, low volume trading. If someone wants to load up before the trial build up phase, where all the money is made on Wall Street, they would use the lack of volume to their advantage. It's easy for even medium size players to manipulate a stock price, if most people don't know about it, and most people holding the stock aren't regularly buying and selling it. You sell some shares you don't have, tank the price, and hope to buy more than you sold to get it there, to justify the means. Or you use these high frequency trading programs to churn the share price slowly lower, and do it as cheaply as possible. I don't think anyone sold short in any large volume, probably the second option. Again, I truly doubt that anyone who has held this stock to this point would be selling any number of shares, no matter how low the price goes. Hence the fact that they couldn't sell it much lower without risking major losses. I also can't imagine that any institution would sell right before trial results, having held it this far. If they wanted to sell, they would've sold in late feb/early march, before data was initially expected. Everyone has their position by this time. What you are seeing is others trying to enter a position in this stock, as cheaply as possible, so they can sell shortly before data is released, or if they feel confident enough, to sell right after data is released. It's the age old game on Wall Street. I would be much more concerned if the price wouldn't have tanked. It would imply that nobody likes this stock, or feels comfortable playing the game with it and accumulating the shares. So, thus far, the reassuring pattern I look for, is maintained.
Partnering will all depend on what kind of deals they are offered, and ultimately take. I also wonder if they will actually partner on both drugs, or just one. I think they need only partner on one drug, and it seems much smarter and safer to partner on the lipid drug, because of stuff I've already discussed. Share price will reflect how good a deal they get (up front payment amount, which will determine their ability to advance their other drug alone, and royalty percentage). Partnering will give share price a large boost, imho, unless the terms are awful. I find it somewhat unlikely that they haven't already been given offers, given the prelim data and niche market for these drugs, and the companies they are competing against. I really feel that this tiny offering they did recently was done only to allow them time to complete both trials and to shop partners on favorable terms without time constraints or market pressure. I wouldn't be surprised if we don't see partner chosen before year end, nor would I be concerned. Who knows though, stranger things have happened.
The heart stuff is our main advantage. They have great earlier phase stuff showing that it is muscle and bone selective, really good data to support that, just my opinion. Secondly, this is why the population they are seeking approval for is genius. Likely an old debilitated population, with a 2 year chance of death nearly 50%. Heart stuff, if it did happen (at lower rates), I just don't know how likely it would be to occur in less than 2 years. Every person in this group who lives more than 2 years, period, is a success. 5-10 years later heart stuff may in fact be a very acceptable risk, in my eyes. Post marketing will sort out the very long term cardiac risk. I don't think heart stuff will limit our advancement through all phases and approval, for those reasons, and a few others.
The warrant exercise price will always remain the same, whatever it was set at when the warrants were issued. The price that the warrants trade for will change, depending on lots of things, including the underlying price of the security. The reason I like the warrants is 1) they don't expire for about 4 years (options that don't expire for a year trade at much higher premiums, 2) they allow you to amplify your earnings. If the share price goes over $2, you will make 1:1 for every cent the share price goes over $2... not a bad price point. You can buy 2-3 warrants for the price of one share of stock. So if the stock price goes over $2, you will make 2-3 times the money for any movement in stock price, for any money you bet at this point. And if the stock does poorly, you still lose all your money, just like we all likely will with our common shares. In the circumstance, I view them as not substantially more risky than the common shares
Hey all, been doing the real job thing the past few days. Again, nothing unexpected with this drop in price, exactly what I was talking about awhile back. When price moves like this, it's easy to make mistakes, and to get caught up in other people's games. I love the ?buffet quote about stock prices as being yelled by a neighbor, and if they yell something cheap, you buy, yell something rich, you sell. In situations such as these, you will make good money in the long run, if you stop to ask yourself... what has fundamentally changed. The answer here is nothing. And anyone with the guts to insider trade on based on trial data would never do it with this much obvious volume. It's smoke and mirrors. Machines buy and sell. We are at this price for a reason. Anyone skiddish who gives up a share at this price will make the men trading this down a pretty penny in a few months. It's worth the cost to churn this down and shake out shares. 200K avg volume, last 10 days. 2 million shares... in a thinly traded stock with a tiny float. No explanation for that volume, other than intentional manipulation. Unless someone big files a change in ownership percentage in the next 3-4 days and proves me wrong... doubt it. Anyways... greens, I type this stuff on my phone. It's a pain. And the explanation for why a company like ligand facilitates a company like Viking coming into existence... it's a smart move for many reasons, and yes, it happens, but rarely, for good reasons. Anyways, the answers to your questions are beyond what my phone will allow me to do tonight.
I firmly agree with bull's strategy of buying in blocks. Never going all in, not until things are just too good to be true. When I am doing good, I strengthen positions in stocks I feel are underperforming. I'm too impatient with my cash, it keeps me from over committing. When stuff like this happens, I start to free up money in those stocks, especially if any of the money I put in previously to other positions is even or up. These prices are a gift. It doesn't matter who our CEO is... there aren't enough shares traded, to keep someone from easily dropping the price of this stock. We are still unknown. There are way too few shares available to allow anyone to keep this stock down though, once we get noticed. It's just the spot we are at. Time will fix it. We didn't need some high powered CEO to steer this ship. We were given great drugs, and a silent partner with significant industry experience. They need drones and wheel greasers, hence the recent hires, and they hired some talented individuals recently. There won't be a big difference between a 1.00 or a 1.40 entry... this will be a big win or a big loss. Two huge trials reporting, both in niche industries, both without current competition that will matter. Market cap is very low, and would still be, even if warrants are exercised.
They want the warrants to be exercised. That's how they work. Every warrant exercised will give the company 1.50. 10 million or so warrants. They will generate 15 million bucks by getting them exercised. It's always the best option for a company. When things are going poorly, we usually see the opposite. Share prices pushed high enough to get warrants exercised. The market is a funny game.
I don't think they will be able to hold the price near these levels or lower for too much longer. Barring crazy news during the earnings call next week, this will begin to bounce within the next 2-3 weeks, as the run up begins. Now that you've seen the game, you can make a lot of money off playing the FDA approval patterns. There are a lot more variations than this one... but this is an easy one to recognize and play. I bought 15K more shares this week. I offer no promise that anything I say will come to pass. It's all a gamble. But this one feels right. I bet on other people's actions, and other people's greed. I doubt anyone is selling shares this low. Who on earth would hold this stock for this long, and sell now, if they were patient enough and didn't sell in march when the delay occurred. There was no additional delay after march, the last patient enrolled occurred precisely around when they indicated it would occur.
Patience friends. Nothing but time will work this out. I've gotten hammered for awhile before, in similar situations when I committed relatively too much, too early. That's the only way I got better. If the trials go well, you'll still do just fine... more than fine. And next time around, when the next stock comes along, you might just make fortunes by doubling down at moments like these. This is the life we chose... can't help but quote The Godfather. There is no reason for them to dilute after the trial. Not that I see. Partnering makes more sense, if the price didn't move enough to get the warrants exercised (which is doubtful).
Good luck guys. Pass the time well. Nobody can stop the clock. Last patient will finish their dosing very soon, one way or another.
It's pretty common to see a stock dip a few months before a big decision, shaking out the weak. Typically bigger guys trying to get shares. There is strong buying every time the price dips, the trade history is pretty revealing. Management has always diluted with private placement offerings and always disclosed quite openly. If this were dilution it would mark a completely new chapter with this company's approach to capital generation. I don't see any indication that this is dilution. Within a month this will all be over with, just a waiting game. These run up periods aren't for the faint of heart. Once you've done a few of them, a lot of this feels familiar and is less nerve racking. Mostly a pattern recognition game. This one is fitting the pattern well thus far, I only hope it continues along the path
Bull I couldn't agree with you more. Thanks for the post
Agreed. it's hard to hide even slow accumulation in this ticker. reasonable assumption that someone is accumulating. too many days of this pattern to be retail. I added some more shares 2 days ago, things are falling into place as expected thus far, hopefully will continue. wouldn't be surprised to see us dip lower at some point, per typical stuff
Nice to see volume consistently higher for longer than we've seen in a very long time. I don't think we will stay at these levels for much longer if volume stays close to even half of what it continues to be. I think their offering was timed just right. Old news now, with the show about to start soon. Countdown continues
Tough question. Phase 2's on average are about 30% chance of success. The more niche the target population, the higher the success rates. Cancer drugs drag the numbers down overall, so going in based on general probability, with no additional info factored in, maybe 40%. When you throw in that phase 1 data looked reasonable, the fact that they've had a patent on this drug for 10 years and built a company around advancing it... with numerous drugs in the pipeline that could've taken priority, the fact that the trial wasn't halted or revised, (an obvious but important fact), all the management talent they've been recruiting recently with marketing and pharma industry experience, the fact that major insider ownership has remained solid, their reluctance to dilute with multiple easy opportunities, the ease of which and terms to which recent debt has been secured, and the fact that this drug has allegedly existed (and survived) in the bodybuilding world (competing with testosterone nonetheless), and the clever niche they've pursued, and the fact that they have kept data from prior studies under wraps with the way it was analyzed and published... i don't want to seem overly confident, because crazy stuff happens, so I hate to give a number. I have also been wondering if it's coincidence or not that their lipid drug will release data at the end of the year. If they knew this was moving slow and wanted their best shot at a winner to come first (lipid market is really tough to enter, per previous discussions), they would throw lipid data back. There is more to the lipid timing convo, but I'm in no rush to share all my theories, but all good stuff though. If I were managing your money, I'd tell you 50/50 on this, so you didn't hate me after, knowing that the real game how well they chose the primary endpoint... not long term... just short term for the first set of data. I still think secondaries could easily get us approved and wouldn't panic if primary was close. They ended it with less than the 120 enrollment top number. Leads me to guess (key word guess) that it was either a resounding failure, or they had enough data to have the study results be sufficiently powered without waiting for the total number. I think it's a really good sign, but I'm again totally guessing. My brain is thinking 80/20 chance of a successful exit for any shares I want to unload when data approaches, now that they defined the release time frame... it's a pretty easy 2-5 week window, no more guessing, traders will like it, that's why we kept pace with the recent news data, and a 65-80% chance that the trial will be legitimately successful, not marginal stuff. With shares staying cheap, and back to back trials, I'm thinking 80% chance I would make decent money at some point between the two. And that's just math, bad math, but math. Two phase twos, each with a 30% chance of success. To a pessimist, that's still two chances at a 30% chance, still no better than 30% if you hate the drugs. Being an optimist and liking both their drugs.. that's a 1/3 chance followed by a 1/3 chance... hey that's 2/3 that something might happen. Again, that's a horrible assumption and I'm joking a bit, but these are both coming off strong phase 1's with a large company putting this in motion with years in the making ... less likely to hit the desperate biotech tricks that desperate one drug startups play with their trials. Oddly I'm less nervous now than I was months ago. Maybe I'm losing it. Glad to share the ride with ya, best of luck
Yeah my mobile barely lists the amount of zeros on the ask. I'm gonna need a screen extenda! Nevertheless, I'm in. Too much volume
Until is shown that addiction patients will return for follow-up appointments once an implant is out in them, we will be in limbo. Docs won't touch it until then. A second option would be for courts ordered programs to start using this, or for people in prison to enter with goal of detox. Not much sympathy for those populations at this point, let alone govt funding to pg for this. Still priced out of most addicts actually affording, with prior auth problems lingering. I will eventually re-enter, but not until they get closer to something with a new drug. The tech will be an easier sell to the FDA the second time along, assuming that no unforeseen issues arise, which still seem very likely from a medical standpoint alone, financial pitfalls aside
100 days from now, give it take a few, I'll be rich or poor. Kind of like vegas on steroids, pun intended. Countdown has begun. Place your bets
Conference call said they were asking for modified guidelines and had submitted request that should be due for response anytime now, if I'm not mistaken, and that with reasonable accommodation for LDL criteria that they should not have problem with year end. Unless u know something I don't, or the FDA tears them apart on a novel compound with no known side effects to date, we are good to go.
Feel free to post a link and tell me otherwise if I'm missing something
Checked my email. Looks like results in Q4. That explains the small offering to recently to tide them over until those results. I wasn't expecting anything until sept anyways, a month or two later will put those results directly on top of the lipid data. Going to increase my position some more if we dip on this
Volume this morning. Not a lot, but enough to indicate that someone is entering a position. Playing the run ups to news is an easy game, probably just that. A reassuring sign. We are 1.5 to 3 months out. I added some more common yesterday, coincidentally. Will try to add more this week if I exit portions of some other positions reasonably. Still buying common shares at these levels.
One addition- I am looking at two obvious exit points to unload a total of 50% of what I own. I will still hold a large amount... just hedging my bets.
Also, sarm addition secondary data will likely be released right before the lipid data run up, which is perfect. If sarm prelim data is satisfactory in September... Exit point 1- sell 25% mid November to early December (lipid run up). Exit point 2- sell 25% more, four to ten days after lipid data.
I'm still long on this. Business is business though I suppose. Hope this helps.
Stock will gravitate near the recent offering price, likely the reason we are so near and below 1.15. It will take steady buying or 300-400K volume days to move things much beyond that range or close to it perhaps. It's just still too far away from news. Regular traders don't like to sit a day more than they have to. No reason for them to enter before august'ish time frame in any sizable numbers, and some will enter just before that if they are following it more closely and want to flip during the run up. The stock never moves much, it gives flip traders a little more security waiting until closer to news. They will view the time frame from now to august as unnecessary risk, in case something unforeseen happens before the obvious thing we are all waiting on. Their earlier phase trials, even if updated in a positive light, still won't make most people want to jump in, not with such a huge pivot point approaching. It might make some more patient to enter a little early, but not enough people to move us. We can only reasonably expect the primary endpoint when the prelim stuff comes out. Secondary endpoints could still be huge, even if primary is lackluster. It will be tough for many to enter on only prelim data, for that reason, and they may wait it out for news. Which is fine. Good news will really move us due to the float and insider ownership. I don't know where the up side really could be. My favorite part of our situation is the back to back news coming, as previously discussed. Usually good news is a pump and dump. September data will be followed by imminent lipid data, so we may not dip as much, and could see a steady rise between data from the first and second trial, which is a really unique situation for a stock with the low of a market cap. All depends on where we are at the end of august. I think it would be easy to see 100% plus move if we stay closer to 1.50-2 range. If we are lower than that, the move could be much larger, as it will appear as an unknown stock and attract more attention. People hate chasing. I hate prove targets, it creates this magic ceiling. For that reason, we may peak around 4-5. Phase 3's are a ways away. If data is stellar, I think most of the money will be made later next year. I tend to be overly conservative. I don't see any reason why we couldn't hit $10 or so shortly after second data, if people notice and insiders hold their shares, as they have shown they are willing to do... but I won't bet on that. I own enough of this to make me ecstatic if we see $4, that's why I like the warrants. $4 price will give me 600% gains with my $0.40 entry average. I will start selling some around 3.50- $4, not a ton, but enough to allow me to double down if we correct without reason. I really believe in this, but I've also gotten burned for being greedy a few times. Phase 2's are a different animal than phase 3's. all bets are off. This is way off the radar. It's a big positive. I really think the endpoint is buyout. I feel our product is likely to be much better than much richer companies versions of SARMs. I really believe that prices are so slow because of the vast insider ownership. Hedge fund guys and bigger fish hate situations where their hands aren't in the pot. Few know ligand. They are in it for themselves, as are our directors. It's hard for big fish to justify throwing giant chunks of money at self sufficient companies. We will make most of our gains when average investors take notice, which will happen in phases. The sarm is our biggest drug, but average investors have no clue what it is. Everybody in America has high cholesterol haha. The cholesterol/lipid data will be a magnet for regular investors, which will pull in the bigger guys, they can't resist a stock once regular guys are gambling on it. Whatever I hold through lipid data, I won't plan to sell much, unless we really move. I will re-evaluate exit points, if both trials do well, only after they meet with FDA and spell out a timeline. They missed this data deadline, but they are a startup and new to this. If they miss a second one, I will still love the stock, but I will move some money away. They have been consistent with their earlier phase data releases, so I'm really not worried, I just worry about things that will worry other investors. Happy trading
Excellent news today with update on gummy sales. Added some to my position
Generally agree mkt caps don't mean as much here, within reason. Expecting a 10 mil cap on a company with a horrible track record, no product, and another billion shares they will do anything to unload... wonder what your mentor was citizen toking. Lovin the game. This may have been a play 5 years ago when no competition existed. There are almost 100 stocks with their hands touching or closer to product. Much easier speculative plays with caps under 10 mil. Easy come easy go. Diversify your bonds bro
Are they calling it the CitiToke version .01BetaTest now ? Cuz I know you can't be talking about share price! A .01 share price would give them a mkt cap of 11 million! They don't handle product, and they don't even have a demonstrated working product. Keep it locked and loaded LOL
What! Good volume?!? A share is .0015 - that's Point Zero Zero One Five. LOL. For a thousand bucks I could get 7 hundred thousand shares! As an FYI, expect volume to keep picking up, the closer it gets to zero! When it gets to .0008 again soon I will get 1,250,000 shares for that same thousand bucks. The higher the price, the lower the volume, in general. Welcome to the wonderful world of investing :)
Looks like the authorized shares number is now 2 billion with a B - billion. Look for many more shares to be sold, before the next inevitable R/S. how do you lock up a float of 1 billion shares, exactly???
It's all good buddy, we've all been at that point from time to time. It is extremely stressful to have a large position and to have slow progress. Don't let it discourage you from posting, a board full of only positives all the time does none of us any good. I definitely appreciate your posts. I have dealt with stock scenarios like these for the past 5-10 years, they still stress me, but less over time, and much less when they fit with the patterns I have seen before. If I make more than 15-20% on a stock, i sell 20-30% of that position and I buy one or two new things, or hold the money for a bit if I can't find anything worthwhile. When stuff like this hits, which unfortunately always happens, it allows me to sell something I bought that's even, up, or not down a lot, and to add some more back. Kind of a tiered buying and selling approach. The market is insanely manipulated. Someone has a good reason for this to be low, and will profit significantly in a few months for every person they can convince to sell at these contrived prices. The trading pattern on the day or two we slumped says it all, followed by the minimal volume at these levels that have followed. They are struggling to shake shares loose, understandably, so I don't think we will stay here too long. Then again, sometimes when this common strategy fails, they try to sink the price lower to get people to really panic. Others that haven't been through the FDA game once or twice before will sell at predictable intervals before trial results at large losses, when these manipulation tricks happen. The old buffet quote 'be greedy when others are overly fearful, and fearful when others are overly greedy' has really done the most for me in this big psychological investing game. It can be really difficult to find the bottom when this stuff happens, and maybe we haven't seen it, so I just make it a point to pick up more when things dip, if I'm able, and to try to keep doing that if it keeps moving down, assuming my original premises have not changed. I always lose when I chase on the way up. VKTX is by far my largest position at this point, I understand 100% where you are coming from. I assure you that this is not a day trade for me, and that it's not a side bet in my portfolio. We shall share the same fate in a few short months. I'm lucky enough to have my day job keeping me way too busy at the moment, which makes this easier for me to reason. I try to do most of my research during even times and up times, to try to convince myself to sell. The more I dig when things get tough, the more I worry. Have a nice weekend, and again your posts are always welcome and appreciated
Totally understand your position and frustrations. If the trial was awful I think they would have asked for more than 3-5 months worth of capital. It looks like the offering was given to ligand and insiders, if I read the filing correctly that was just put out. That's hardly bad news.
My guess is that they burned more cash than expected finishing out these trials and moving the rest of the pipeline. Their burn rate has been phenomenally low given the amount of stuff they are juggling, I was expecting reality to catch up.
If burn rate has been higher, it would put them too close for comfort to get to end of the year both trial results, without a partner. Trial results would have arrived when we all would have known they were cash strapped, and everyone would have expected an offering and price would've reflected as much. They wouldn't get a good partner deal if they were desperate for cash.
This gives them time to finish both trials, and to rationally evaluate partner options without fighting a time clock.
There is no way they would have gotten a great partner deal this early. They aren't allowed to discuss ongoing trial results with a prospective partner, so it would have been a blind guess negotiation on a larger pharma's part. Just a lottery ticket.
With good results, they will have multiple bids and will be in a favorable negotiating position. I would have been pissed if they partnered before data, and it would have led me to believe that their data was marginal and that much larger or longer phase 3 would be amiss.
I also was pleased to see that the other competitor SARM had a favorable side effect profile thus far. Problems there would mean problems here.
These prices are like Christmas morning to me. I freed up as much as I could on short notice this afternoon to add on to my position, common shares look great in this range. If prices stay here I will continue buying significantly. It's free money to me. The markets are fickle. We are 2.5-4 months away from data, that's an eternity in the biotech game. This should move significantly when results get closer, probably late august. I will most likely be easily able to see my sub-$1 shares of common at 1.25+ at that time, probably more. Maybe I'm wrong, but this has been a steady trend I've played with other biotechs. I made a lot of money on a biotech about 2 years ago that dipped during the summer lull that had FDA pivot point approaching, and didn't need to hold it through news.
Truly I feel nothing has changed. I continue to believe that management will only be selling themselves out of profits if they play this wrong, and that this was a very prudent move. When they stop selling shares to their proxies, and start selling them to us common grunts, I will start to reevaluate my overall sentiments.
They don't say if the dosing is monitored/observed or not. Dosing regimens and techniques cross all spectrums, anything is possible. We usually worry about observed dosing the most with other kinds of drug trials than this, or drugs with highest side effect profile etc. I don't think the way the meds are given will make difference in our case, who knows
Study says dosed once daily. It takes a good amt of time for the drug to clear- always nice to have a drug that can be dosed once a day. 12 weeks I think of patient dosing. I don't think the recent updates on data collection on the trials website means we were delayed further. June (or even July) data is spot on with the last earnings call. From what I can tell, the June date we are talking about is when the last patient gets dosed. Trial summary says they will monitor people for 3-7 weeks post that. So for example primary completion date late June/early July + 7 weeks (followup monitoring) = late august/early sept. They said on the call I think that it will take them 3-4 weeks to do final data cleanup (reasonable). That puts results, if everything takes the most time and data analysis doesn't become a mess, puts us in sept/oct range. The closer this date gets to the lipid trail release at end of year, the more potential upside, imo.
I don't know anything about the sites or what has chanted, if anything. Trial is nearing completion, maybe they never used some of those trial sites and its record keeping, maybe they are closing it down, maybe there was other stuff going on with trial sites to explain our slower enrollment, nobody knows until the conference call after data, and by then it probably won't have the same relevance as now.
Still have a good feeling about this one. Have a nice weekend all
Evening all. Wanted to give my thoughts on the offering.
My initial reaction was similar to what others have posted. Read it this morning, bought more shares. Maybe I'm crazy.
I'm just having a hard time convincing myself this is awful news. So 6.5 million shares possible dilution or so. Fair exercise price means this increases the float by an automatic 6.5 million shares in the longrun, assuming warrants get exercised. The price hadn't had a ton of trouble staying above $1. Maybe that will change, but I don't think 6.5 million extra shares is enough to scare away traders when data approaches. Our recent competitor with news made significant one day gains on preliminary data. Our trial even if delayed should still be further along. I like ours a little better, hard to compare them though. Gains didn't last, but that won't keep anyone from doubling up on our stock that was wise enough to bet on the first one. I think the other stock's recent movement will really bring our stock to a wider audience. Anyone who googles SARM is going to find our company fairly easily.
In my opinion, the upcoming earnings might put them closer financially than they thought, ?possible explanation for slower recent trials. Maybe not. If they waited to offer, their financials would've been bad... doesn't really both me this close to two trials of data, could assume an offering was coming, they waited this long to partner, this would buy them time to find a partner, they probably wouldn't get half the deal now that they would get in a few months. I'm glad they didn't partner and went this route.
If the data stinks, why would they only raise $5 mil? I've seen stocks sell tons when they are facing hard times. I found that reassuring. If price really moved past 3.00, and warrants were assumed to be cashed, OS would still be ?under 40 million. Two good trials and $200 mil cap by end of year is fair, still a $5 stock at that point.
Good to know it's a private offering. Maybe someone will sell them reasonably like the last warrants were traded. Maybe someone will take a bigger stake. I still like the 1.50 entry point of the old warrants. As the data approaches, I think people will start to notice, especially if they noticed other sarm news lately. So yeah, bought more.
Any criticism welcome, convince me otherwise and save me some money!
Ouch saw that one coming. Lol "news" - timbererrrr
Just realized that they refer to it as the BETA TESt 2.0... because they only found exactly 2.0 (two) dispensaries to accept this free garbage PR scam trial. Nobody wants their dispensary linked to a fly by night penny scam, with actual money being made. As previously referenced, the reputation of the dispensaries (all two of them) says it all.
Give money to the poor if you want to throw money away.