Tough question. Phase 2's on average are about 30% chance of success. The more niche the target population, the higher the success rates. Cancer drugs drag the numbers down overall, so going in based on general probability, with no additional info factored in, maybe 40%. When you throw in that phase 1 data looked reasonable, the fact that they've had a patent on this drug for 10 years and built a company around advancing it... with numerous drugs in the pipeline that could've taken priority, the fact that the trial wasn't halted or revised, (an obvious but important fact), all the management talent they've been recruiting recently with marketing and pharma industry experience, the fact that major insider ownership has remained solid, their reluctance to dilute with multiple easy opportunities, the ease of which and terms to which recent debt has been secured, and the fact that this drug has allegedly existed (and survived) in the bodybuilding world (competing with testosterone nonetheless), and the clever niche they've pursued, and the fact that they have kept data from prior studies under wraps with the way it was analyzed and published... i don't want to seem overly confident, because crazy stuff happens, so I hate to give a number. I have also been wondering if it's coincidence or not that their lipid drug will release data at the end of the year. If they knew this was moving slow and wanted their best shot at a winner to come first (lipid market is really tough to enter, per previous discussions), they would throw lipid data back. There is more to the lipid timing convo, but I'm in no rush to share all my theories, but all good stuff though. If I were managing your money, I'd tell you 50/50 on this, so you didn't hate me after, knowing that the real game how well they chose the primary endpoint... not long term... just short term for the first set of data. I still think secondaries could easily get us approved and wouldn't panic if primary was close. They ended it with less than the 120 enrollment top number. Leads me to guess (key word guess) that it was either a resounding failure, or they had enough data to have the study results be sufficiently powered without waiting for the total number. I think it's a really good sign, but I'm again totally guessing. My brain is thinking 80/20 chance of a successful exit for any shares I want to unload when data approaches, now that they defined the release time frame... it's a pretty easy 2-5 week window, no more guessing, traders will like it, that's why we kept pace with the recent news data, and a 65-80% chance that the trial will be legitimately successful, not marginal stuff. With shares staying cheap, and back to back trials, I'm thinking 80% chance I would make decent money at some point between the two. And that's just math, bad math, but math. Two phase twos, each with a 30% chance of success. To a pessimist, that's still two chances at a 30% chance, still no better than 30% if you hate the drugs. Being an optimist and liking both their drugs.. that's a 1/3 chance followed by a 1/3 chance... hey that's 2/3 that something might happen. Again, that's a horrible assumption and I'm joking a bit, but these are both coming off strong phase 1's with a large company putting this in motion with years in the making ... less likely to hit the desperate biotech tricks that desperate one drug startups play with their trials. Oddly I'm less nervous now than I was months ago. Maybe I'm losing it. Glad to share the ride with ya, best of luck
AI
