Hey all, been doing the real job thing the past few days. Again, nothing unexpected with this drop in price, exactly what I was talking about awhile back. When price moves like this, it's easy to make mistakes, and to get caught up in other people's games. I love the ?buffet quote about stock prices as being yelled by a neighbor, and if they yell something cheap, you buy, yell something rich, you sell. In situations such as these, you will make good money in the long run, if you stop to ask yourself... what has fundamentally changed. The answer here is nothing. And anyone with the guts to insider trade on based on trial data would never do it with this much obvious volume. It's smoke and mirrors. Machines buy and sell. We are at this price for a reason. Anyone skiddish who gives up a share at this price will make the men trading this down a pretty penny in a few months. It's worth the cost to churn this down and shake out shares. 200K avg volume, last 10 days. 2 million shares... in a thinly traded stock with a tiny float. No explanation for that volume, other than intentional manipulation. Unless someone big files a change in ownership percentage in the next 3-4 days and proves me wrong... doubt it. Anyways... greens, I type this stuff on my phone. It's a pain. And the explanation for why a company like ligand facilitates a company like Viking coming into existence... it's a smart move for many reasons, and yes, it happens, but rarely, for good reasons. Anyways, the answers to your questions are beyond what my phone will allow me to do tonight.
I firmly agree with bull's strategy of buying in blocks. Never going all in, not until things are just too good to be true. When I am doing good, I strengthen positions in stocks I feel are underperforming. I'm too impatient with my cash, it keeps me from over committing. When stuff like this happens, I start to free up money in those stocks, especially if any of the money I put in previously to other positions is even or up. These prices are a gift. It doesn't matter who our CEO is... there aren't enough shares traded, to keep someone from easily dropping the price of this stock. We are still unknown. There are way too few shares available to allow anyone to keep this stock down though, once we get noticed. It's just the spot we are at. Time will fix it. We didn't need some high powered CEO to steer this ship. We were given great drugs, and a silent partner with significant industry experience. They need drones and wheel greasers, hence the recent hires, and they hired some talented individuals recently. There won't be a big difference between a 1.00 or a 1.40 entry... this will be a big win or a big loss. Two huge trials reporting, both in niche industries, both without current competition that will matter. Market cap is very low, and would still be, even if warrants are exercised.
They want the warrants to be exercised. That's how they work. Every warrant exercised will give the company 1.50. 10 million or so warrants. They will generate 15 million bucks by getting them exercised. It's always the best option for a company. When things are going poorly, we usually see the opposite. Share prices pushed high enough to get warrants exercised. The market is a funny game.
I don't think they will be able to hold the price near these levels or lower for too much longer. Barring crazy news during the earnings call next week, this will begin to bounce within the next 2-3 weeks, as the run up begins. Now that you've seen the game, you can make a lot of money off playing the FDA approval patterns. There are a lot more variations than this one... but this is an easy one to recognize and play. I bought 15K more shares this week. I offer no promise that anything I say will come to pass. It's all a gamble. But this one feels right. I bet on other people's actions, and other people's greed. I doubt anyone is selling shares this low. Who on earth would hold this stock for this long, and sell now, if they were patient enough and didn't sell in march when the delay occurred. There was no additional delay after march, the last patient enrolled occurred precisely around when they indicated it would occur.
Patience friends. Nothing but time will work this out. I've gotten hammered for awhile before, in similar situations when I committed relatively too much, too early. That's the only way I got better. If the trials go well, you'll still do just fine... more than fine. And next time around, when the next stock comes along, you might just make fortunes by doubling down at moments like these. This is the life we chose... can't help but quote The Godfather. There is no reason for them to dilute after the trial. Not that I see. Partnering makes more sense, if the price didn't move enough to get the warrants exercised (which is doubtful).
Good luck guys. Pass the time well. Nobody can stop the clock. Last patient will finish their dosing very soon, one way or another.
