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We'll nice work on the Merlin then to all of you. keep up the good work and here's to a very good 2007 ahead. Cheers.
Karl, NY
Chico, this is Karl from NY. We've spoken on the boards in the past about the RSI systems.
I've been trading the TMG system for the past month and I'm "very" happy with Capt'J's work. What I have been doing is trading the system in the Futures Market using the NQ. TO get the same leverage as the Rydex you would just muliply the futures price X 20 and divide by 2 to get the same double 200% return. So the NQ at 1788 X 20= $35,760.00 /2= $17,880.00 per contract.
I roughly average it to 1 contract for every $15,000.00 and you should be safe enough. I have been making some nice coin in the past 6 weeks following along.
The benefits of futures, unless your already trading in a retirement account, is that you get 60% of the returns taxed at Long Term capital gains and 40% at the short term rate.
I use Open ECry futures and they give you a command that you can place a time stamped trade order to execute at 9:30am sharp so you don't even have to be in front of the computer.
A true hands off system. Hat's off to Capt'J, great work indeed. But lets let 1 year go by to see the 100%+ returns before we celebrate too soon.
Best of luck. Why kill your self with RSI or any other systems your working on, that you have to constantly be watching every tick, when you can put this on auto pilot and just go fishing or play golf.
Have a great evening.
Karl, NY
I was reading the following about VIX and M3 Money supply from the Fed that was very interesting and I believe is true also....
Leading up to a dangerous scenario for the markets.. ie "Short oportunity"
"The VIX matched its all-time-low yesterday of 9.88 and went slightly below it. At the end of the day, it closed
slightly above it at 9.90
This level is hugely important for the markets. From a technical standpoint, the VIX is now back inside its
descending channel and if it moves past this support level, it would mean that the next support level is at
a VIX of 5.
This would be absolutely absurd with housing in a slump, the auto makers crying to Bush for concessions,
and an economy that is trying to avoid a recession.
Why has it even gone back down to retest the all time low?
Because of the Federal Reserve. After hiding M3 Liquidity levels last March, they have accelerated Liquidity
at approximately 10% in an effort to stimulate the economy away from a recession. They are now into
an over stimulation modality that will be a big problem when the markets try to go back to a "normal state
of balance".
Keep an eye on the VIX through next week as this is a very important level.
It would be better for the markets to have the VIX move up with a market pull back than for it to go drop extremely low and create
a market blow off condition. Market blow offs have very ugly endings."
Happy Thanksgiving to everyone on the board and thanks for all your advise in the past.
Karl, NY
Yes I understand that. Just wanted to make sure it would work OK with that Market on Open order 9:30am trades.
I think the Market on Open trade turned out to be just as profitable or more so far.
Let me know if it will work OK.
Thanks.
Karl
Hi this is Karl.
Is your systenm on Collective 2 compatible with Trade Bullet automation or is the next day 9:30 am trigger pose a problem?
Thanks.
Karl Hormann
I see. Thank you.
Also what time frames do you use? Do you always use the same times or different time frames for entry/exit?
So basically the rules are the -100 & +100 for the long and short entries + the stop rule, correct?
I want to make sure I'm not missing anything as I follow along with you guys.
Best regards.
Karl, NY
One more quick thing.
Which time frame do you use?
Do you use one to get into a trade and another to exit?
Because I was confused how you mentioned you use 4 times 60 min, 30 min, 15 mi & 5 min.
Thanks again.
Karl, NY
Hi Nocona.
I've been reading everyones posts quietly trying to learn and I had a few questions if you don't mind explaining to us beginer traders.
I see your using the CCI method that you explained earlier to me. Long when it moves above the -100 and short when it moves below the +100 CCI.
1) Do you trade on the 30 minute charts to avoid too many false signals?
2) Do you have a stop loss rule to get out if the trend suddenly changes? I never read about any stop losses.
Thank you very much. I'm trying to nail down your methods and want to be sure I have all the rules down.
Have a great trading day.
Karl
Can you get the CCI using Ensign Charts. That is what I am using right now for charting?
Thanks.
Karl
Thank you very much for your help. I really appreciate that. This seems to work better then the original RSI5 method you were doing earlier this year?
Have a great weekend.
Karl
Hi Naconna.
I've been away from the boards for a while and just checked back in and see you have changed your RSI 5 to the CCI12 hourly. Quick question for us newbies.
Where can I get the CCI 12 readings and what is the hourly short and long signals?
Sorry if you mentioned it in a previous post. I can't seem to find it.
Thank you.
Karl
Grips of the Bear Market. This is the only way to explain the slow deterioration of pricing. Short is the way to make money it seems. Playing the bounces just hasn't worked lately. Any one else on a trade? Karl
Hi Nocona this is Karl.
I have been following your RSI5 hourly system from the past few months. I want to get something clear.
Now we have a short signal based on your system.
Would you ignore that short signal and make exceptions, or do you follow it exactly by the rules of your system?
Because that would mean we are now short at this moment.
Thanks.
Karl
Funny clip.
Thanks for that.
Karl
RSI5 on Sell signal now. Hmm always seems to be early lately. But it just did come off a prior win. Anyone else Short on the RSI5 method by Noconna?
Thanks. Karl
I think TC like other timing services are detecting a bottom and are going long but don't see the worldwide problems that can create an abnormal event. This type of event is not typical and who knows we might go straight down another 5% before it's over. Could be a first.
I started buying gold today. Don't trust this market at all, even to the downside here.
Karl
I'm buying today. I am actualy investing in Gold for the first time in my life right here. 1st buy at $567.00. I've been watching it slide down since $725.00 and now it looks attractive as it is below the original price of $615.00/oz that I wanted to initially buy at 2 months ago before it skyrocketed over $120.00/oz straight up.
Many problems for the country ahead of us regarding real estate, debt, trade deficits, etc..... starting to accumulate here.
What's everyone else's thoughts about it here on a down day.
Karl
Gold -7.45%! WOW. And they say there's inflation. Overblown worries. The end is near I think.
Karl
Yes I can imagine. I was too young. Today I think that could never happend because of the trading curbs but this steady day after day errosion is what your seeing now. It's a buyers strike. Who the hell want's to buy with world markets acting the way they are. There is no catalyst yet.
Karl
Crash of 2006 is upon us. If we go like this for another 2 weeks we would have hit the -20% mark on the Nasdaq in just under 2 months. Pretty comparable to the crash of 1987 except we did it slow and steady. Unreal. People are just terrified of the Fed at this moment and nothing else matters.
WOW. Karl
I agree. It is totally a lack of buyers. But that leaves this market at a perilous point. We are sitting at the lows and if there is any other sort of "miss" or scare then we could be set up for a panic mini-crash. I bet there are plenty of stops in place just being systematically hit and liquidated. Just no one want's to buy here.
Or we can get the flip side, if there is a good news break futures could skyrocket forcing all shorts to cover & people who sold off to chase higher in fear of not getting in on the up move.
So it will definitely be a volatile week, the question is now which direction. We are so oversold on the down side I see the odds for an upmove here but then again that's what we have been guessing the past 3-4 days also and see where we are now.
Best of luck. Karl
Brazil Market -5.95%! World markets are in a state of panic/fear. It's a buyers strike and who knows what might spark any buying interest at this point. Oversold means nothing any longer. Going to cash on some positions at the close. Trying to guess this bottom is very dangerous.
Fed might say something stupid again tonight.
Maybe a good idea to buy some puts for a quick gamble.
Karl
Still oversold. If you look at the following chart:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?c=qqqq,uu[h,a]daolyyay[dc][pc5!c20][vc60][iub14!la12,26,9]
on the daily the MACD is extremely oversold still. The 5 day line has now crossed up over the 20 day line which is bullish with the RSI turning higher.
Also if you switch to 3 year history chart and check the last time it was this low we had a 20+% ralley. I doubt we are getting that type of rally this time but we should get a run higher into the end of this quarter.
I think odds of sucess going long here are quite good.
Karl
What indicator got you into the short trade and what date? I was long the Nasaq since last wednesday so I'm still holding long but it is just about giving back most of the gains at this point. Very disappointing. Karl
So the selling continues today. Very very low volume. The charts still look bullish so I don't think we should be worried about today. But Nasdaq down -1% is not great. Anyone else's take on today? This board has been quite today. Thanks all.
Karl
So are investors slitting their wrists yet? I see blood everywhere and the headlines read "Bears having their way!" lol
We must be getting close to a bottom with those headlines and fear. Karl
With the Woodies CCI you have to spend all your time in front of the computer or only a couple of hours during the day? I would figure it's a time intensive trading activity. The RSI5 is kind of nice because it is less maintenance.
Thanks and also good luck with Woodies site. I might look into that also.
Karl
I have a few long NQ contracts open that are getting a killing from last week. But all my retirement accounts and regular accounts are still short from 2 weeks ago.
It's just this market seems to have no support and since we didn't hold the bounce today I'm afraid we are in for a really nasty flush out. That's my feeling. Not too good.
I hope I'm wrong but it does not feel good here. Karl
CRASH ALERT! Feels like this market is ready to implode. Watch out. Just my feeling. Karl
I agree. But on my futures chart it still did not go into the buy territory so I am holding off. Maybe we might get another pop tomorrow morning and that might do it. We'll see.
Karl
Sorry. I meant it has not triggered a sell signal yet.
(typo)
Karl
I follow QQQQ futures (NQ) and it has not triggered a buy on my screen yet. Some how the futures trigger for the RSI5 method works better then the regular QQQQ stock as I have been getting better entry points on signals. So I am still waiting.
Karl
$SOX not even participating in this bounce. $SOX up only .59% after declining over -4% yesterday alone. No strength at all in this market yet.
Karl
That's the one. Look at Home builder stocks and how they have imploded. That is a good indicator of Real Estate health and from the looks of it real estate could be in for much more pain. So if home owners start to pull back and save that could start a recession. That's what might spark the continuation of the bear market along with other factors which are too long to list.
Have a nice nite.
Karl
That's the one. Look at Home builder stocks and how they have imploded. That is a good indicator of Real Estate health and from the looks of it real estate could be in for much more pain. So if home owners start to pull back and save that could start a recession. That's what might spark the continuation of the bear market along with other factors which are too long to list.
Have a nice nite.
Karl
I feel were in for an oversold bounce. I mean we've had some rediculous selling in the past week. But once we relieve that oversold bounce, I think we are continuing the bear market that started from 2001.
Karl
World Correction...
The Saudi stock market down -50% since March!
India was down -10% intraday today
Chinese market, by Greater China Fund(GCH) -28% since May 11
Those are corrections! Karl
Semi's -12.6% Correction in Semi Conductor index in past 2 weeks with a total loss of -18% from high in February. WOW.
That has to be the kicker of this correction. What does -18% constitute? A bear market in tech or a flat out crash spread out over a couple of months.
I think retail investors are jumping out the window right about now. Karl
I know. It is a short's paradise! I've been short my retirement account and most of my trading accounts the past 2 weeks and I'm just looking for the signal to cover and go long. I don't want to buy with all this weakness yet even though it's way oversold. Unbelievable 2 weeks for sure!
But I read that smarl money is starting to go long here so that might be a short term signal for a bottom. Along with the extremely high put/call ratio.
Karl
Can the Nasdaq closer lower today to make it like 10 in a row!!! Wow. What a meltdown. Maybe that's what's in store for the real estate market also. People who bought in the last year and a half are going to know what it's like to owe more on a house then it's worth. Maybe that is what the stock market is pricing in right now. Disaster.... Karl