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It wasn’t clear to me that the combinations she suggested were DCVAX. She referred to immunotherapy. She only called it DCVAX when referring to the trial. Is it possible that NWBO doesn’t own the work she is doing currently with immunotherapy?
I listened to the whole thing. My takeaways:
1.) Stopped taking new patients in 2008 for financial reasons
2.) Linda is disappointed with the overall curve (looking at 2 year stale data) but she is optimistic about the tail of long term survival.
3.) data locked a month ago, she is “anxiously awaiting data”.
4.) She said that it was the company’s decision not to unblind the data 2 years ago (and in my opinion she sounded slightly annoyed)
5.) I’m guessing it’s some rule, but I noticed that she actively avoided saying the name of the company.
6.) I saw the 47% 3yr number, but that wasn’t the new data. That was something we’ve seen before, and I’m not sure what it was referring to.
7.) Linda believes that glioblastoma is not one disease. It’s several. And she seemed to infer that the trial might only be successful for a few of them.
Overall this was neutral in my view.
Nothing has changed from a risk standpoint. If the pain of losing everything is greater than the pain of missing out, then you should sell some until that evens out. If your wife is mad, you probably bought too much. This is still an OTC stock. Anyone with more than 3% of their net worth in this stock is out of their GD mind. They absolutely might cure cancer and be worth $30B, but that is reflected in the price. I’ve still got 8,000 shares at around $0.31, and am willing to watch it go to zero, or someday be worth $250K. If I lose everything, my wife won’t even notice (or care). If it goes the other way, maybe I’ll get laid.
I realize we all think the company will get something done in September. But looking back at the PR language gives me some concern (emphasis mine):
“...the company CURRENTLY anticipates that Trial results will be ready for reporting APPROXIMATELY SOMETIME AFTER Labor Day in the month of September. “
“Approximately sometime after...” is perhaps the most ridiculous use of descriptive language I’ve ever heard professionally. It reminds me of when I was a kid and my friend used to say “Probably definitely” All the time when describing some event that he thought would happen.
I don’t think anything happens in September. I’m still long, because I would be enraged if top line came out after I sold everything (FOMO). I do think we could still have a positive top-line result, or even a breakthrough type result, but it doesn’t have to happen in September.
“Couple weeks” = a couple months
“Several weeks” = a year at least
Do any of the folks here know whether the use of steroids to manage swelling where measured/controlled for trial participants? These steroids can act to shut down an immune response. Previous immunotherapy trials for GBM have failed (speculatively) due to the impact of steroids. Does this trial control that? Would be great to hear that the treatment arm was separated into those that received these steroids, and those that did not.
Thanks,
MIT, Stamford, NASA,... I like this guy’s background. I also like the percentage of shares owned by management. These guys are looking to get rich with equity, not just selling shares to bag holders.
JJ,
It also doesn’t explain why they refused to explain the reason for the hold. Who are the people with warrants (for stock, not arrest), and what price are they at? Is it possible they hired Innes to help get them green? Either way, I guess that’s bullish.
I’m gonna stick with it as long as Linda L is involved.
I sold out last year because Linda L disappeared. But I came back in when the blinded update still had her name on it. I’m in with an amount I’m willing to lose, and I’m just gonna ride it out. Sleeping at night is hard when you own this stock, but it’s even harder when you don’t. Fomo.
Innes was an advisor for HNW retail clients. I’m worried that he was just hired to sell stock. His background isn’t PR. It’s selling investment products to retail HNW investors. I’m long, and will stay that way until we get news, but I’m definitely concerned.
Is this guy any relation to Sir David Innes Williams? He died in 2013, and was the founder of the Imperial Cancer Research Fund. I can’t seem to find much online related rob UBS or Oppenheimer. I wonder if he worked with Gary Brinson...
One of the proxy items is to vote on giving a few board members some stock options. This is what happens right before big news. Everyone involved needs some chips on the table so they can participate. Probably about a moth from news? I bet we got .27 today, but back down to .24 before next leg up). But I’m dumb money (as is evidenced by my willingness to post on this board).
Just sold. I’m out.
I made this decision because I can’t trust Linda P, and neither can Linda L. Linda L is nowhere to be seen or heard nowadays. She’s the reason I bought, and her absence is the reason I sold. I bought at $0.25 and I sold at $0.19. Not a great outcome.
Just read something about Nate Bilinski from Feb ‘18... Multi-year DCVAX survivor. Google him. I still have hope for this treatment, and this stock. Hope isn’t a strategy, but I’m not selling.
BS. A 22 year old intern could update the most critical section of your website. I have to admit, of all the question and warning signs, this one has me closer to the door than any other. The phase 3 trial is still listed as recruiting. They are not treating this company like it’s a going concern.
Why does Phase III trial status say “recruiting” on NWBO website?
Where’s that boyscout with 3 million shares who doesn’t like models in hot tubs? This is chance to go down in history as the world’s greatest activist investor of all time. He can 1.) pay for this kid’s DCVAX, go on local TV when they hear about this great story, publicly ask Linda to move forward for the sake of this boy and others, and then we will share that footage like it’s HepC.
Why can’t they continue to measure the long tail after the data is unblinded? I don’t see why they can’t keep tabs on these 100 or so people to see if they are still alive. This makes no sense to me.
What other therapy can do wonders? “The answer could be one of the many experimental treatments being tested in clinical trials across the country.” “There are dozens or hundreds of trials, many of which are focused on immunotherapy.”
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/to-your-health/wp/2017/07/26/these-experimental-treatments-target-brain-cancer-like-john-mccains/
They chose not to mention DCVAX or NWBO at all in this article...
IMO, FWIW, GLTAL, LOL, TTYL
Would this be good for DCVAX? Or would it mean that experimental drugs that are further behind in the process would get a leg up over NWBO which has been going through the tough patient slog of approval?
It’s clear to me that Glioblastoma is the disease that is sparking the Right to Try campaign... between Biden, McCain, and others, lawmakers are really moving here. What’s not clear to me is whether DCVAX is one of the drugs they are talking about as being on the shelf ready to try. Has anyone been following TOCA? Tocagen has some preliminary results, and are presenting to the FDA in 2019. Maybe their drug is the one people are looking to try? I’m getting nervous here. If there are 3 experimental drugs on the shelf that you have the right to try, you are gonna try the one that is affordable, has the most promising data, and the most high profile patients (like McCain). There has to be some way to find out what McCain is using... you know it’s not SOC.
sorry Eagle,
Read the rest of my post. I was just being sarcastic about the way people use “imo”.
The article talked about lymph cancer.
Could this come to market before DCVAX direct? Looks like it could be a category killer if it works. And way cheaper to make.
My wife would be Ok with hot tubs/models if I had that kind of cash. I have 50K shares (now at 0.28 avg) making up about 6% of my retirement savings. Hoping to get done with this whole work thing a few years early before my kids become a-holes.
Smokey, You have enough money to bet $1M+ on a single OTC stock? What are you doing on this message board? You should be in a hot tub with models right now...
Is anyone at the conference? How do I get news on this?
Kaffee: Did you talk to Les?
Jessup: I did what I had...
Kaffee: [interupts] Did you talk to Les!?
Jessup: You’re God damn right I did!!
I actually think the Mike Pence tweet from earlier is interesting... Given the situation with McCain, it seems pretty likely that Pence is talking about drugs for Glioblastoma. Imagine if data flies next week and it comes out that DCVax is the drug that sparked the comment/movement. We would get a whole news cycle talking about NWBO. The stock would rip, until the next time Trump opens his mouth to take a sh**.
I’m long 50K shares (which is a lot for my middle class existence), but I think we wind up back under $0.20 if next week is a dud. I’m in at $0.27 average now, so it won’t be a disaster.
We’ll see.
Just got the NEJM blast email. No articles referencing NWBO in the heading... but there was an article about a patient with Glioblastoma. Maybe there is a comment in the full article.
Help me understand how/why someone would go short a $0.17 OTC stock?
The most this stock could fall is 17 cents. The most it could gain is infinity.
With stocks like this, you are either long, or it isn’t even on your radar.
We get it... Blockchain, he’s so hot right now, Blockchain... I’m all for speculating on blind herds and momentum, but why do we always have to talk about “shorts” getting “squeezed”. I only know a few people with the balls to short stocks, I know zero people with the balls to short OTC penny stocks, and I know negative people with the balls to short OTC Blockchain stocks.
Maybe I’m wrong. Help me understand this.
I’m gonna change my name to Mike Blockchain and see if that makes me get lucky more often...
(I actually thought Hypatia was a cool idea and owned a few shares)
Insurers willingness to pay is something to consider (although with a big enough survival benefit, they will pretty much have to).
Friend of mine has a child with mild Hemophilia A, which BMRN basically cured with gene therapy. The rub is that insurers probably won’t pay to cure him (once the drug is approved) because his mild form doesn’t require prophylactic factor replacement. He is essentially cheaper to treat rather than cure. So someone with severe Hemophilia A gets cured, and someone with mild Hemophilia isn’t ever allowed to play sports. Go figure.
Gene therapies (cures rather than treatments) will completely change the healthcare landscape over the next 10 years. Our payer system is completely incompatible with the concept of cures.
I actually have some exposure to AMRN (but not a lot). For larger more liquid names I like to use puts/calls for binary exposure.
I try to own a basket of these. 95% probability of bankruptcy Ian fine is the 5% upside is high enough. I don’t have to hit them all.
Thanks for the responses! Very helpful/interesting to hear different thought processes around these price targets. Good luck all.
If expected value isn’t positive, I will hold. If it’s VERY positive, I might hold more!
No it’s not. Do the math. Expected value.
My currentguess is $8/share. But it’s the variable I am least confident in.
What about the IP? In a home run scenario (use for other solid tumors and quick adoption) how much of the upside would go to Cognate (picks and shovels) vs NWBO (inventor)?
I didn’t ask for judgement about my odds (that’s just, like, my opinion man). I asked what the best case scenario shareprice would/could be. I’m long, so I’m a bull (if you want to think about it that way).
Again... Given public/available info, what is the SP potential in a best case scenario over 3 years?
To each their own Rogers. I’m a binary trader for my biotech holdings. I try to ignore things I can’t measure/control. 5% chance of success is fantastic odds if it means a $50 share price. Less so if success means we get a buyout for $2/share.