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I'm still here. It's been seven and a half years, but I'm still here. Avg cost around $10
And not one mention of Aurinia in the PR.
Additionally, no official PR from AUPH when they PR'd the news for England.
Interesting.......
Please go to Stocktwits and read the open letter to shareholders. Tough to deny.
Who cares about last year? Not the market...
The reason we're below $10 is because THIS year's guidance is only 20-30% above 2022.
And 20 to 30% is a far cry from 194 percent! It shows there's no real ramp.
However, analysts (Cantor) are saying this could be a beat and raise type of year...
I'm not sure there's a more intriguing small pharma out there. Too bad I only have 50 shares. If AUPH gets bought out before this one, that'll change.
>90% institutionally owned with only 36m shares outstanding.
Huge potential. Could easily see $50/share with the way LIVMARLI® is selling...
We are on pace to destroy decent numbers from Q4...
380k volume AH with a close of 9.05
Gonna be a fun morning. I really want to kiss single digits goodbye.
Glad I increased by position by another 1% this last two days!
Thanks Jess, and this is from Voc's three year study:
Lupkynis ....53% complete renal response at 3 yr ...expensive but an oral drug
Belimumab ....62% complete renal response at 2 .5 yrs
I'm going to need a link for this.
From what I recall, Lupkynis achieves a higher percentage of CRR and the efficacy of Benlysta trails off sooner.
Increased position today by 1.5%
Been adding slowly since Feb 2017.
I hope this ends soon.
Isn't Benlysta off patent soon? Wouldn't GSK like Voc?
Kiwi: There's too much pointing to a buyout here to doubt that it will happen. It's more of a "when" than an "if".
It sounds like you're hoping against the event.
I increased my position this morning by nearly 1%
Definitely can't sell here...
Drug-Drug Interaction Study to Investigate Effects of Voclosporin on Pharmacokinetics of Simvastatin (Statin-DDI)
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT05306379
Is it true that Aurinia is receiving closer to 100k per year than 65k? Has anyone else read that? I'm referring to the annual cost of the drug.
AH volume of almost 200k. It's very simple: Aurinia released news of Peter granting himself nearly 900,000 options at 12.01
The bottom is in. Everything that Peter does from this point forward will be aimed at getting maximum profit out of those 900,000 shares. Whereas, leading up to the granting of options, everything that was done was aimed at lowering share price to get those options cheap. The bottom is in.
Greggors, where have you been? It's pretty clear that $35 is now top end for buyout.
Follow what Peter has done in the past. He sold Succompo near all time highs, and he'll sell AUPH near all time highs now that he has 900,000 additional options that he can exercise at 12.01
He never wanted share price to run to $30 on a leak (unless he was doing Neil a favor). Yes, Peter might have really wanted to sell for $50 last fall after the leak, but clearly BMY and others weren't willing to pay 6-7B. Peter wasn't going to sell for low premium (there might have been a low 40s offer, MAYBE..) so he took matters into his own hands.
1. Executed shelf offering
1a. Lied about not needing to use it, hit it hard.
2. Pumped "aggressive" guidance at Leerink (trapping retail btw).
2a. Delivered anything but aggressive guidance on 2/28.
Because of that, the stock is at $11 instead of $22,and of course he has made NO effort to defend share price.
Additionally, ILJIN has bought 200k shares for cheap, and everyone got options at 12.01. Pretty sweet deal...
So here we stand. AUPH will now be sold for roughly 100 to 200% premium based on stock price between $10 and $17, and now everyone will be happy to be done with this thing. Note the top end there is $34. See Succampo. Peter's execution is identical.
Whoever doesn't back up the truck on Monday morning, is either totally foolish or has a wife. I predict a frenzy on Monday with extremely volatile price action on high volume.
I hope Peter was pissed when he found out ILJIN is buying heavily again. Maybe they "light a fire under his ass".
Let's be honest with ourselves here.
It's also the percentage of patients discontinuing, and Peter's failure to adequately explain why. Worse than that, he blamed the patients in a way. I think that was the part of the call where we went from $13 to $11 or so.
Can we all agree that Peter has to go? Not only does everyone in the industry disagree with his definition of "agressive", he blamed patients during the Q&A!!
He essentially said that the patient clientele, being mostly composed of African American and Hispanic women, is unreliable! Can you believe this guy?!
So you're thinking $85 to 90...
Back to some fundamentals for the fun of it...
Are R&D costs expected to drop after the completion of A2?
Are we getting a payment from Otsuka next year?
What is expected Q4 rev? 20-25 million?
Could we hypothetically break even next year?
Newbie, it's called "having a bit of fun" with self deprication. We know how ridiculous we are, so why not make it official with a meme.
I've thoroughly enjoyed the past 18 hours!
KZR? Seriously? They started with 14 trial participants and ended with five...
What did Aurinia have 300+ before it was over?
You must have upset some long timers here with this statement:
Many of us (certainly myself) bought into the hype of 18-20 million in revenue for Q3.
In reality, Aurinia did what it needed to do by meeting expectations. The numbers prove that GIA is not the appropriate strategy for Aurinia no matter how great a drug Lupkynis is.
The company will be sold.
Hopefully for $45+ but perhaps for $40-44 if necessary.
Break even status will quite honestly be an extremely difficult endeavour otherwise.
Today was a necessary reality check for me.
I'm wondering if the VA contract money sneaks its way into Q3 revenue. Any thoughts?
That could be a nice surprise...
Is the bid still up? Would you mind keeping us updated on that? haha
The share price hasn't jumped more because "Mr. 7500" is back. Large blocks being sold to hold price down. Mr. 7500 was a consistent seller all summer, and he's back!
Big money gotta get in. Pulling out all the tricks!
Sorry to derail, but is AMRN done as a company? I see 614 million revenue and I think that sounds pretty good.
It was the loss of patent by an ambigous ruling that did them in it seems. What's their path forward?
65,000 is what Aurinia hopes to clear for each patient annually.
Betaville is a financial blog authored by Ben Harrington who has apparently broken news on big acquisitions before. You can subscribe for just $12,000/year. He ascribed AUPH takeover talks as a level 1 (out of three) rumor. Unsubstantiated at the moment, but he hears chatter. His three levels are uncooked, rare, and well done. haha
Anyway, Bloomberg picked up on this later in the day.
Lots of smoke folks...
Did y'all see the rumor today from the UK paid subscription service?
BR, surely you can do better than that...I'd hope...
You linked an article that was written by a bot.
Did you bother to read how bad it was? It's not even sure of the facts! haha