A swing trader with a bit of day trading for education and profit
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Good hunting. I don't play the VIX. Just too volatile for me. BOIL is all I can handle, which by the way I am up 26.3%, so will be watching my 50% profit point.
Also pulled back on my investments Friday. Sold all of my FNGU and all of my stocks except for AMD GOOGL META. My investment in FNGU was 9.5% (I screwed up the initial calculation, should have been 10%). I once owned 6 FNGU stocks for 6% investment. As on now the gains are the same, but I still have 3 open I could lose money on.
For TQQQ I pulled back to the appropriate investment level for my 125% investment level. Still fully loaded with SPXL
62.8% SPXL (60% at buy)
54.9% TQQQ
3% other FNGU stocks
.6% BOIL
121.8% securities equivalent
56.9% MM etf's
178.3% Total investment ($234 cash)
This is an amazing way to invest. Just over 120% exposure to stocks, but 178% investment in total.
I have decided that for the next cycle I am going to raise my investment to 135% (from 125% + stocks) and not buy any individual stocks. Just too much work. I will double FNGU investment to 20%. This will also affect my IRA acct as I never did go above 125%, I will raise it also.
I am using Microsoft's Edge for my internet browser. When I load Zerohedge, ads appear to the left and right of the text. In about 15-30 seconds, the ads on the right disappear. Then in another 15-30 seconds, the ads disappear on the left and I am left with a full screen of text. I like it but it time it happens, the text goes back to the top of the page, so I have to scroll down to where I was reading.
Anyone else seeing this?
AS the old song goes, "What a difference a day makes". A little gain each day is adding up for the week.
We have moved all the funds we don't need to trade with to GSY. Way better stable returns. See Jaws chart.
Excellent summary. Boy does GSY stand out on the chart. Yahoo.
No sell signals yet but watching my charts carefully. Worse thing I see is 3 down days of NDX BP%.
Here is a summary of the dividends for the big 2
. $ Ex Pay
SPY 1.745531 9/20 10/31
SPXL 0.19251 9/24 10/1
QQQ 0.67686 9/23 10/31
TQQQ 0.230214 9/25 10/2
No only are they doji's they are dragonfly doji's. I consider them positive. We have only had 2 down days in the last 12 trading sessions for a total SPY gain of 5.9%. Each day we march a little higher. 60m chart has a nice trend line.
I am going to take the rest of the day off and celebrate. I feel so good.
https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/seems-magic-sam-altman-says-chatgpt-will-bring-unimaginable-prosperity-fix-climate
I pretty much use 10ema the same way you do 9ma. I had a close above 10ema on the 5th, M12 and M3 both looked good, so I bought near the open on the 6th. Twice prices have closed back down below 10ema, but it is still very early in the cycle plus again M12 was continuing to climb and M3 never closed very much below zero, so I just waited to lose more money, but it didn't happen.
You posted back on 9/5 that you had a buy signal. I looked the next day (9/6) and bought. Looking good.
This should truly be interesting to see how well this etf will do.
https://www.zerohedge.com/ai/future-finance-fintech-startup-launches-ai-etf-emulates-buffet-druckenmiller-and-tepper
What a roller coaster of a month this has been. The first week saw a sharp drop in all the indexes and a full recovery the second week of the month. This past week added a little bit more to the gain. As you can see FNGU is doing the best (1x gain) of the 3 indexes.
So I went to cash on 9/5 and then back into the market on 9/11. So for this cycle and this month, my index holdings are up 2.7%, 3.0% and 4.3%, so I have a positive month going when I add in the losses for the first week. But the losses for the first week were part of the last cycle and it was also a good cycle.
We will see what happens next week, but for me, the worse case would be a BE or a slight profit, but I would like to see the market continue to rise a bit more before turning. I can't tell if we are still in a solid w3 or if it topping, so only time will tell, but I actually like which I see in the QQQ chart. The SPY chart looks even better making a new ATH last week.
For sure gravestone doji's would be a concern. I only see spinning top doji's on SPY and QQQ, so not much of a concern. The fact that the day held I consider very positive.
I went 100% long with SPXL TQQQ and FNGU on 9/11 and just added since then. 9/11 was the first close for each above 10ema and prices have not dipped below since.
As my chart shows I went long at EOD 9/13 at 26.77. I was busy at the close, so got just a little bit better price than the close of 26.85.
The chart below is my 60min trend line chart for SPXL (TQQQ is a carbon copy). I was very encouraged by how well the TL held during regular hours and then saw it immediately start to climb AH. It is truly a mystery to me why the market did this AH and then the big jump at 4am.
I was quite unsettled at the close yday. The day had started off good, but by the close, I wasn't sure what was going to happen today. I set one stop and had a whole list of stocks to sell with NDC (next day confirm). I watched futures after the close and by 8pm, it was clear something major was about to happen.
I am fully loaded at 134% and 127% for my two LT accounts and 178% for my short term account, so this is by far going to blow away by record day from 8/15. I just hope that this post doesn't jink it all.
As you can see from the chart, SPY (based on closes) had formed a triple top, whereas based on candles, it had set a new ATH. In my mind this thing could have gone either way, but I like the way it went.
I am getting to really hate etf's that under $10. Take too many shares and even small changes are big %'s.
Big move on NDVQ, -10.7%.
I WROTE THIS YDAY EVENING, BUT DIDN'T HAVE TIME TO FINISH IT
I listened to Charles Payne while I was eating lunch, and he had a very different take on reduction of interest rates.
His comment was that interest rate cutting does not cause the market to fall, recessions do. So there is nothing that says just because the FEDs are staring to cut interest rates that the market will fall. If we go into a recession, then it will fall.
So then the big question, are we going into a recession. Somehow this economy seems to keep ticking along. I would have to say that the likely hood of a recession is less than 50%, which means the market could be very good.
So I am back to my usual comment, don't worry about what could happen, just trade what you see on the charts.
I had very little time last week to look at my stock charts, so I missed some good buys. However today was a pull back day (I think, we will see tomorrow go up), so I took advantage of it and bought AMD, GOOGL, META, NVDA, and TSM.
AMZN MSFT NAIL and NFLX were all good buys, but I will not chase.
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I will probable upgrade based on NQ's comment. My concern is that all their effort is now going into Windows 11 and so I worry about security issues.
Good to know. Thanks
Really good article. Just a few highlights:
* Relative to where they were at the 2000 highs, European stocks are worth about half what they were nearly 25yrs ago in real terms.
* “US stock market cap is over $50trln, dwarfing China at $11trln and Japan at $6trln,” he continued. “For over five decades, the US has produced the next generation of great global companies.”
* Fueling an entrepreneurial culture, that is the source of America’s prosperity, strength, power.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hedge-fund-cio-europes-collapse-healthy-reminder-americans-stay-true-their-system
My ASUS laptop is now about 5 years old. Of course, Windows is always getting upgrades and each time it wants me to upgrade from Windows 10 to 11. Should I do this? Anybody using 11?
Here is a good article about AI. I would summarize as, it takes a good 5 years for any new technology to find its footing, just like Apple's new iPhone. AI just needs more time. But personally I think NVDA is to AI as Apple is to smart phones. They are not going anywhere. There sales and profits are outstanding.
https://archive.is/mgHWV
I believe Nvidia will peak, fall, and eventually make way for others to follow in its path.
I am not sure I believe that. Making AI chips is much more sophisticated than making routers. But time will tell. Maybe eventually everybody gets replaced.
Yes just got home about 3 hours ago. Six days of wheeling. Hardest trail we did was Holy Cross, near Leadville, which is rated 9 (out of 10) and a Jeep Badge trail. I could show you videos of us climbing rock faces and making our way over 2-foot boulders, but you have seen plenty of those just like you posted. What doesn't get posted is what we see at the end of the trails, the views are unbelievable. We were above the tree line every day.
The second picture is a view of Lake Dillion in Frisco/Dillon from the top of Breckenridge Peak 10. The ski area only uses through Peak 8.
As you know I am not a gloom and doomer, but I do like history and as they say, history repeats. It will be interesting to see what happens this time.
There is one point that does worry me about AI, which would of course affect NVDA. I am not into AI at all, so I don't know much about it, but in my mind I cannot think of a single application for AI other than writing term papers for HS and college kids. I recently read an article that said the same thing. So if that is true where is the profit in AI. In fact that is the question, where does AI make anybody any money. That money that is being spend for computer systems is mind boogling. And I read that it takes a lot of money (electricity) to train your AI brain. There must be a plan, but I have no clue what it is, but I am not much of a visionary. I once said internet live streaming would never happen.
But you know me, I love dips, the big the better.
Do we need to be watching GUSH closely. The high was on 4/5 and it is down -38.5%.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/oil-facing-physical-shortage-crisis-api-crude-draws-9-past-10-weeks-cushing-hits-tank
This year there will be 4 of us. Perfect size. Three is a minimum for the trails we are going to do as we often use 2 wenches for bad situations.
But I don't expect any issues. One trail is a red, but I think it is an easy red. Moab trails are rated 1-10. I now like doing 7's and maybe an 8, but no more 9's or 10's. I have nothing left to prove. I just enjoy hard trails where the driver can pretty much figure out the line. If I hit an obstacle that needs a spotter ever now and then that is ok.
Yep going to enjoy a week of wheeling the Jeep in cool Breckenridge CO area. Have a good weekend all.
I will take a look, but why not trade both? Tech will come back to life when we least expect it to.
I am mobile and web site messed up. I just responded to a 2023 post.
Thanks for heads up.
Here is a vote that we set a new ATH.
https://archive.is/FMDNK
Good to know.
I get the volume comment. You are probable right.
TLT is just an etf like any other.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TLT/
https://www.etf.com/sections/features/tlt-demand-surges-will-it-be-next-100-billion-etf
Volume has nothing to do with it. It is all based on yield. I will glad to go thru the numbers if you want me to.
I updated my MMF chart for the month. I made three changes to the chart.
The first two were the addition of GSY and TLT. GSY is a favorite of Jaws and for good reason. For the last two months GSY has run .70% and .64%, which is much higher than what SGOV is running at about .45-.47% a month. GSY is returning 50% more than SGOV. I moved half my funds that I had out of FLOT on 7/1 and the other half on 8/2. Interest rates are falling, so FLOT is not the place to be. I have now moved all my funds I don't need for trading into GSY. I would have put all of my funds into GSY, but GSY is very hard to trade AH.
The third change was to swap out the 3mo avg running APR for the absolute yield for the month. Since I deal in yields all the time, for some odd reason, the monthly % yield makes it easy to understand the price movement in relation to the market.
GSY has had two bad months this year, Feb and Apr. It shows up on the GSY chart as a slight change in the slope of the trend. Of special interest is the higher slope that GSY is now running which is reflected in the yields.
I also added TLT because with interest rates falling it should be a good place to put some funds. It has now had 4 very good months, but dropped pretty bad last week as interest rates have made a short-term rate jump.
SWVXX continues to be the worse MMF on the sheet.