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neither Delek or GSPE have commercial access to the type of high end proprietary geophysical processing that Exxon and BP can muster. Also.....there is a world of difference between the proprietary BP and Exxon seismic acquisition to the old spec seismic reprocessed by GSPE. AT the end of the day.....the spec seismic used by GSPE was acquired with a short cable designed for supra salt imaging.
It was never intended for sub salt exploration. It's acquisition parameters are wrong for subsalt imaging.....and no matter how much reprocessing is conducted.....it is not a proper data set for sub salt exploration or God help you......well targeting.
Reality Check?????
Ron Bain one of the GSPE founders is gone. He managed the seismic reprocessing, prospect mapping, and first and second GoM lease sale block acquisitions. Mike Neese (formerly BP) the chief Geophysicist for years 1 to 5 is also gone. Canoe is clearly non-commercial; GSPE is so desperate for funding they would be hyping success from here to the moon to raise funds.
Similarly with Tau; any success would be heralded for the positive hype and the ability to raise funding for Corvette drilling.
John Seitz is currently out of pocket some $9 million of his own personal funds keeping GSPE afloat. How deep are John's pockets?? Can he sell more shares of GSPE for another capital raise and further dilute the share value or can he farm out further working interest to raise capital and further dilute the share value??
GSPE has lost its two best technical people......Bain and Neese.
Who will be targeting the Corvette well.....should it be funded?????
Are we feeling lucky??????
The 5 year primary leases on Corvette expire next month. If GSPE or Delek found anything encouraging at Corvette they would be going to the BOEM for a suspension of production and lease extension. Their deafening silence could suggest they came up empty? In any event come end June the leases will revert back to the government or an SOP will have been granted. The answer should be apparent in about 6 weeks.
Going.......Going......Gone
Almost all the original 2014 leases purchased by GSPE revert back to the government in July 2019; having 5 year primary terms.
GSPE can get a lease extension on Tau or Canoe if they can demonstrate they have 15 feet of oil pay in any zone.
If GSPE have sufficient pay to get an lease extension on Tau they can then petition to unitize the blocks with a plan of exploration that satisfies the BOEM. GSPE needs to get a rig on location at Corvette and spud a well prior to end July or they will lose the prospect.
I predict that GSPE will melt away by end Summer
Ron Bain resigned from Gulfslope several months ago after having major technical disagreements with Delek.
also leases are assets anly as long as they have time on their clocks; the majority of the GSPE leases revert back to the government in July 2019; 4 months from now.
Delek had better hustle to get a rig out on Corvette before they lose the lease and they are left with the remnants of the GSPE inventory
Lease Concerns
The majority of the GSPE lease inventory expires in July 2019.
THis includes the central Corvette blocks.
Is this not a concern?
Can a exploration well on Corvette Prospect be spud before the blocks are revoked?
Corvette cannot be drilled before leases expire and are relinquished. GSPE is running out of time and the 2014 leases will revert back to the government Summer 2019. The entire company now stands or falls on Tau being commercial.
Lease Expiry Concerns
Are there not concerns that almost the entirety of the Gulfslope lease inventory expires summer 2019 and revert back to the BOEM?
That would seem to suggest that Tau is the final prospect that Delek has time to drill?
Subsalt imaging Concerns
To repeat my concerns about the PGS 3-d seismic data set.
It was designed and acquired to image above salt targets. The cable length is too short to properly image below thick salt and at Miocene reservoir target depths; it certainly does not have sufficient frequency content to image slope fan reservoir geometries. The seismic data set when reprocessed can be conditioned to have apparent higher frequency but this is algorithm/forward model generated and may not reflect true earth conditions.
The reprocessed (by Gulfslope' Ron Bain) seismic data set may not properly image structures and the migration may not properly (spatially) position structures.
Contrary to Gspex's comments....the Tau structure is not a big structure......it is currently mapped as a narrow three way dip closed structure trapping against a high standing salt ridge????
This type of trap is difficult to properly image even with the best(state of the art) seismic data.
3-D seismic acquisition parameters and limitations:
Does anybody have any concerns that the 3-D seismic data set that was utilized by Gulfslope geophysicists to define sub salt prospects was originally designed to image supra (above) salt prospects. The acquisition cable length may not be sufficient to image below the salt and although the survey was reprocessed there may not be sufficient fold to map structure or define seismic geometries below base salt????
Regarding Graben Post 1056:
1) Distal sands 8 to 10 ft thick do not have aerial extent of hundreds of acres. There maybe decent oil in place however recoverable oil is quite a different kettle of fish.
2)Thin multiple stacked sands are hard to complete and produce:
3)Well EUR in this type of geologic setting is usually sub-par and not economic.
4)Don't know where Graben learned production geology:????
In what reality do you take an oil sample and calibrate it to seismic to determine resource extent?
5)The oil sample is used to determine viscosity and possibly assist with estimating flow rate.
1 Regional geology of vermilion has thick, productive Pleistocene sands inshore from Canoe.
2: Pleistocene sands in VE 300 area are thin, discontinuous distal sands; not of reservoir quality.
3: Seitz et al are desperate for good news; Gulslope and Delek would by now (post petrophysical review) be crowing about finding "quality oil bearing productive reservoir"; lack of any affirmative statements such as "reservoir is of excellent quality (as is oil saturation) and we are encouraged that we may have a commercial development; we are currently reviewing reserves and project economics to determine the best way forward" is indicative that the results are not encouraging.
4: I work in the industry
5: I know the Gulfslope technical team.
6: I currently do not own any Gulfslope stock nor do I intend to acquire any interests in this company.
7: I follow small startups out of general interest; I invest in the larger companies such as Exxon, Chevron and BP.
8) Good luck to you all......I hope that Theta will be your barn burner.
Canoe well encountered thin oil bearing sands. The well is not commercial. The reservoir sands are thin and discontinuous.
Take the post down if you like. But wishful thinking and denial does not make for a development. The productive Vermillion Pleistocene section is inshore from Canoe. Thin distal sands often yield seismic reflectivity.
Canoe may be up the river without a paddle.
From January 10 Q Accountants Statement
The Company has incurred accumulated losses as of December 31, 2016 of $34.1 million. Further losses are anticipated in developing our business. As a result, our auditor expressed substantial doubt about our ability to continue as a going concern on its report for the year ended September 30, 2016. As of December 31, 2016, we had $0.05 million of unrestricted cash on hand. The Company estimates that it will need to raise a minimum of $4 million to meet its obligations and planned expenditures through February 2018
No false information.
Technical staff.....geologists and geophysicist are no longer being paid. All have departed. No further technical assessment is occurring. GSPE is totally broke. All that remains are two organizers: John Seiches and Ron Bane.
Gulfslope is broke.
They have no operating funds.
The staff is not being paid.
The electricity is being turned off.
John has thrown in the towel.
Time is not on their side.