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Coach, it is not DD when AVXL is involved it is called DoDo. The kind you step and say oh - shoot (this is why they now have a poop in a bag program). All the company has is if's and what if's and only if's. Their precision medicine is precision BS, to cover their lack of having completed not one valid trial they talk about everything and how they could treat that. My guess is that if a paper was written saying that mosquitos were shown to cause AD, you would here the next day how 2-73 is a great mosquito repellent, tested in the "outback of Australia. Now evidently if they can get 18+ year old Rett patients to sleep better after a 7 week P2 trial, then the drug will be approved to treat every aliment that infects mankind and certain mice.
Actually it is only days before we know that AVXL will fail again to release data by the end of the year. You have to agree then that if, no results are released before the end of the year then the whole "precision medicine" scam will be shown to be a bunch of BS. With an additional 3 million shares of dilution every qtr that goes by, the AVXL stock price will be back in the 1 dollar range by the end of the year early next year. We will see if they announce final dosing within the next week, no readout this year another failure of AVXL.
Good thing you bought back in at $4.80 should help balance out with AVXL going below $2.00.
The truth is that AVXL is in big trouble and it will be shown soon. You have to agree then that if, no results are released before the end of the year then the whole "precision medicine" scam is shown to be a bunch of BS. Just another piece of bad info from Dr Missleading. With an additional 3 million shares of dilution every qtr that goes by, the AVXL stock price will be back in the 1 dollar range by the end of the year early next year. We will see if they announce final dosing within the next week, if not by your own calculations, no readout this year.
LOL Pure fiction. CC last week didn't predict ANY of the 3 indications would read out this year and that was from the CEO. They haven't even completed recruiting ANY of the 3 trials and it is already mid August. Rett won't be a big PR anyway but there will be no PD in 2019 and no AD in 2020. Those are the facts. Sometimes recruitment is slow. Only nine months if cash, dilution coming at low SP.
Assuming current expected dilution and no results which is probable, what price at end of year. $1.25 or less.
So you are saying that no trial results this year. How about next year any chance before the stock hits 30 cents?
Do you think this stock can be propped up until the company releases any meaningful results in the next year or two. The CEO seems flaky, and looks like massive dilution in the near future.
BR I agree with your overall take. I also believe that most of the warrants will not be cashed in early. There is still 1+ to 4+ years until they expire and unless there is an incentive to exercise, most will hold for bigger payoff.
BR it won't be long now, with the release of positive results,the pain and suffering will be over. Hang in there we are down to counting the days.
I agree, this time the data will be pretty straight forward. I think it is fairly certain that there will be positive results, the issue will be if it is as positive as the 15/16 from the last trial. If not the gloom and doomers will claim it failed despite still having a stat sig outcome.
Not if, but when. Give us a scenario where the results are not confirmed. If anyone can come up with even a remote situation where the trial could fail, you would be the one I trust to give a reasoned argument. Eg. The world ends before results. ??
We will know by the end of Sept, for bryostatin for 2-73 it will be years.
"By the time Bryostatin gets to the finish line the SOC will probably be based on Anavex data"
Total opinion no facts, only hope and a prayer that 2-73 is more than a placebo By end of sept your opinion will be proven wrong.
Posting facts looks like a waste of time. Hope and opinion are the main driver here.
Yes, news out any day now, the shorts have to be worried.
It is obvious that the AXSM effect is in play for all small bio stocks. The good old days of a bio stock running up before results so traders could sell, is probably over. I dont expect the price to get much above $5.00 until the results are announced. Avxl will be in the $2.00 range or less for quite awhile, IMO, then will go down when disappointing poor PD and Rett results are released next year. The good news for us is that we are just "days" away from the results being released.
Geez, we are a third of the way thru the 3rd qtr. We could be days away from a results anouncement.
No reason for anyone to get excited, all the info was already publically available. SA probably locked it to save the embarrassment of the total misrepresention of the facts.
You have to dig for the results, they are hidden in an Australian mag puff piece after the 148 week results. Below is why they do not publish the safety results.
1) Only 25 patients were on the drug for over 5 weeks non controlled study.
"The findings must be interpreted cautiously. The phase IIa study was designed to assess safety and tolerability; cognitive and functional endpoints were secondary. It comprised only 32 patients at baseline, 25 of whom completed both the 5-week, randomized, dose-finding, crossover trial and the 52-week, open-label, extension study. There was no placebo comparator. Instead, the study used three different sets of historical control data taken from other Alzheimer’s studies."
2) 98% had adverse events as stated.
"Nearly all patients (98%) had some sort of adverse event, but most of them were mild transitory dizziness or headache; 76% of the events were grade 1, and 2% were grade 2. There were no serious adverse events. Three subjects dropped out because of adverse events (delirium, dizziness, and a combination of confusion, disorientation, and lethargy).
3) There is no published results for the actual trial.
An Extension Study of ANAVEX2-73 in Patients With Mild to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease
The safety and scientific validity of this study is the responsibility of the study sponsor and investigators. Listing a study does not mean it has been evaluated by the U.S. Federal Government. Read our disclaimer for details.
ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02756858
Recruitment Status : Active, not recruiting
First Posted : April 29, 2016
Last Update Posted : May 17, 2018
Sponsor:
Anavex Life Sciences Corp.
Information provided by (Responsible Party):
Anavex Life Sciences Corp.
Study View No Results How to Read a Study Record
No Study Results Posted on ClinicalTrials.gov for this Study
About Study Results Reporting on ClinicalTrials.gov
Recruitment Status : Active, not recruiting
Estimated Primary Completion Date : November 2020
Estimated Study Completion Date : November 2020
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/results/NCT02756858?view=results
Unfortunately for AVXL, it will take them at least 10 years to finally prove that 2-73 is just a placebo.
Good points, the rest of the AD companies have a much steeper hill to climb because of the mis-diagnosis. Not as big of a problem in the moderate to severe. The fish tool will be huge.
IMO, the SP is based on the predominant assumption that AD is too difficult for a small bio company to have a solution. Few people are willing to risk a failed trial no matter what the previous trial showed. Most seem to believe that there will still be a great buying opportunity after positive results between the P2b and a P3 with less risk.
Yes, there is much less appetite for speculators to play small bio stocks these days for a number of reasons. IMO, your thesis that AXSM is the current model for small bio stock price movement will be proven true for NTRP. The difference though is that AD will draw much more attention than Migraines. Thus I believe the price ramp up leading into a P3 trial will be steeper.
Yes, my guess is that some of the transactions are spreads. Bet that someone bought 250 Oct 5's at $2.80 and sold the Oct 10's at $2.10. If the stock closes over $10.00 on Oct 16, they make about $100,000 on a $17,500 investment. If the stock closes over $5.70 it is a break even transaction. Anything over $5.70 is a profit trade up to the $100,000 max profit.
Also if the stock is less than $10.00 they can just buy the 25000 shares at $5.00 and own them at a net cost of $5.70 going forward.
Her premise was that the current trial will fail. I think what you and others pointed out is that her rational is faulty. I doubt she lets us know when she figures that out and covers her short.
What is speculative and irrational are your original claims. If 2-73 is so easy to manufacture why is it $.60 per pill, that seems very expensive for something that still has no valid trial data. Of course Anavex needed to produce $1m worth to cover the next 3 years of failed trials.
Most anybody can do the math on the value. It is est to cost $50k to $60k per year per patient. At $10k per year looks like a steal even if it only reduces cost by 50%.
https://www.nextavenue.org/how-cut-caregiving-costs-alzheimers-disease/
Gee, go by the results reported.
You are totally wrong. If you take the monthly dosage of both, it takes 1.5 grams per month for 2-73 and 40ug per month of bryostatin. That is a 37,500 to 1 difference. If it cost 10 cents per pill it could cost $225,000 per gram of bryostatin to cost the same as 2-73. At .60/pill it could cost over $1m and cost the same.
Worst cause est are $100,000 per gram, so if true bryostatin would cost half of 2-73.
" Both slopes are clearly not pointing up, at all. There is no improvement over baseline, and that's even without using a placebo group. They are claiming that scores have improved when clearly they have not. "
Yes, also there is no way to determine which of the 8 patients in each group have AD, and whether they are MCI or mild, which have different rates of cognitive decline.
Absolute gibberish.
All those claims gave been debunked multiple times.
Sounds like the same failed logic of the "Amyloid" proponents.
Saying that over and over will never make it true. Zero trial results to prove anything.
Cysol, you have to understand A-273 is not an AD drug, it is a "sleep" aid and AD placebo pill
The other point is that the 850,000 covers options that have already been granted and priced.
Not much about bryostatin, nothing new just that they believe that if confirmed that it will be very exciting. Farlow had to leave before the bryo questions and Sabbagh said he was not involved in the data analysis so did not know, but did say that because it treats moderate that he is hopeful.
They got a question about Anavex and both said they knew nothing about it or the company. Guess they are not into sleep aids and probiotics. LOL
Exactly, the only reason to watch the stock price, is if you are planning to buy or sell. If the stock goes down because of a failed trial, then is the time to be worried. So keep your eye on the data, you will sleep better.
Based on what? Herd mentality. So if the stock was being run up right now, then you you would buy because the herd is buying? It is about the science and the past results. Good news is we will know in a few weeks.
He is probably her "scientific" expert.
Thanks to both ITT and you. I see there was some "coaching" given to the sweet lady.