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Yeah, i guess i have become quite pessimistic recently, my own naiveness to blame perhaps, in that I expected great things already, but all we've had is ambiguous delays.
It doesnt help that im sick and physically broken, and nothing seems to help, as well as under tremendous pressure at work.
I'll stop posting for a while.
If it gets approved under the insomnia route, it'll be great and I'll be one of the first to be very happy, but until that happens, I am starting to feel that this stock is going to get overshadowed and overrun one day.
Well then, fingers crossed, because 2-73 needs to get on market sooner than late.r
I completely agree with you, especially your last line, in where you say it sounds grossly optimistic - because not all patients experienced insomnia relief, so why are some people under the assumption that insomnia will be a slam dunk?
And frankly, with all the grossly optimistic posts that have come through here throughout the two years, I'd be surprised if more than 25% of them actually came true at all. I'll admit I was one of the optimistic posters, and not a day goes by that I don't regret selling in the teens, and while I still think 2-73 will work, I am no longer 'blindly' optimistic, rather, realistic, in that one day, something good should happen, but at this pace, it might be Rett by the end of 2017, and Alz by 2019, if we're lucky.
He HAS put on a road show. It worked and we bumped up put of the $3's and are now in the $5's because of it. Also likely why Park West bought 5% of the company.
What we need now though, is the actual data, otherwise this'll slow bleed back to the $4's, as every week of delays implies a delay in studies or works on the fears that maybe the data itself is bad.
Fundamentally, yes, it 'should' fail eventually, but because the stock is actually trading on 'non-fundamentals' I'd stay away from shorting AXON in any capacity.
Lol, I also heard someone say that before, then the company went bankrupt. I don't see that as the case here for AVXL, but I do see some 'longer than we'd like to admit' timelines. My peg is 2-73 approved/commercialized for Retts in 2018, and ALZ in 2019.
Anything sooner will be a blessing.
I think announcements of initiation of studies will give us a small pop, but gains will likely be traded out to pre-annoucement levels. Then, as we get closer to calendar finalization of those studies, I'd expect to see a slow climb in anticipation of results.
So, sadly, I think we are right where we are because there isn't any reason for us to be trading any higher. A Retts initiation of an ACTUAL study will be good, but if it's only a P2, then that's what all the nay-sayers will (rightfully) point out, is that it STILL needs a P3 to qualify as relevant news to move and STICK the SP needle closer to $10.
So until that happens, I'd expect a high $5 to low $6 dollar range, with $1 pops that settle back down after non-long-lasting or impactful news.
We might go up if we actually get the 57week study. Hell, soon it'll be a 60 week study. Or PK data from Ariana. Or anything. Frankly, I'm getting tired of all the nothingness.
As slow as things are developing, I'll be happily impressed if 2-73 for Rett's is on the market any earlier than 2018, and for Alz any time before 2019.
I'll admit I was a huge supporter of "2017!" for 2-73 to be approved to damn near treat everything, but seriously, I don't think 2-73 will achieve anything more this year other than positive results from a P2 Rett's study - because I'm getting the impression that 2-73 for Alz isn't even going to initiate till later in 2017 (and that'll take 3-6months) which as damn slow as PK data from Ariana is taking, I hate to say it, but anything before 2020 might be considered the time window for actual commercialization.
I hope I'm wrong.
I was also one of the persons who asked "what if" the vote didn't pass. Please PM me your thoughts.
Its not obvious. Its hopeful. Frankly, since Dr. M has appeared to do the exact opposite of what those on this board have expected him to do in regards to pr releases and such, Im content on just sitting back and letting him do it. And I am no longer waiting or expecting any news any time soon.
The downside of that is that the shorts will get their cake when this tests new lows every day that goes by without another pr, while us logs continue to say "oh oh oh! Any day now you shorts better look out!"
I think we are just being combative to be combative, and like MacGyver's rants about anavex now, etc, generally have no impact on share price or the development t of a2-73, trial dates, etc.
Take all those thoughts you just had and stop thinking them.
As hbanger just said, it's an article, and Anavex was one of a few mentioned in it, that had nothing to do with partnerships (I reacted off of your post re partnership with TPIV) and then I went and read the article, and completely agree with hbanger.
Does anyone have the link to listen in to the investors conference?
yah, a follow-up PR really has to happen. Anything would do, really.
Hopefully it'll clear up somethings like: where are we on the initiation of studies, what is the partnership picture looking like (and maybe that would explain why the f- Dr. M didn't mention Biogen at the last conference but still had the logo up), to whom the preferred shares are intended for, 2-73 57 week study and beyond, and a number of other pieces of the puzzle that would be most required.
I still believe the preferred shares are for an obvious 'sweeten the pot' type deal with a partner (probably BIIB, but who really knows) - and the reason for the media blackout on PR's has more to do with allowing the partner to buy those preferred shares as a 'lower price' than what they would be if Dr. M released all the PR's he's got ready to release.
Hell, has it been considered by anyone that Dr. M might have told the partner that 'you will buy these shares' because we need xyz aspects of your business model, and i'll wait on releasing data so the price is fair, but if you don't buy these shares, I will release data and go it alone - it may be harder, but we'll get there.
It's all interesting and frustrating at the same time. I wish I knew what the hell was going on so I could understand the silence.
Agree with several other posts, in that tomorrow's meeting will be only about getting the preferred shares voted through, everything else is just standard information.
If we get the preferred shares though, I would expect some PR's regarding updates to everything we've been waiting on.
Its ok if it takes a week to jump 1000%, i can wait :)
ha! it would give me the exact same amount of $! Apparently we would be equally well off :) and I would simply invite you and any other AVXL'ers in the Colorado area over for drinks and a grand ol' barbecue :)
I agree a 10x multiple would be good, but as reiterated several times, anything less than $125/share (~$5B buyout) would be a Bernie-Madoff sized rippoff to the shareholders.
Personally, I think a $10B buyout should be the minimum.
I like it. Fingers crossed.
Can someone credible (bc I swear this is starting to feel like ymb more and more) run a worst case scenario of if we do not get the 51% votes approving the preffered shares - how else would ANAVEX be able to 'share' vested value in a BP's opinion, that would satisfy said BP's desire to fund/partner?
This is a premium article, cannot access. Can you copy and paste it?
The FDA has given the green light to an at-home test that can detect a genetic risk for a number of diseases including Alzheimer Disease. There is no specific cause for the disease and there is no cure. So would you want to know?
“Yes,” says Penny Howie of Forney, without hesitation. “We're so busy and we forget things… and you don't know if it's because you're so busy, or if there is something wrong. I think it's exciting.”
But, for now, Howie is worried. Her family has gathered at a Dallas doctor's office to learn if her father is Alzheimer's latest victim. According to the Alzheimer's Association, another patient is diagnosed every 66 seconds.
“It's very scary seeing the man that raised you, that loved you, deteriorate at some point,” she admits, with her voice breaking and a tear beginning to form.
As genetic testing becomes more accessible, Howie says she would want to know if she has inherited an increased risk for the disease.
“I think it would make me take better care,” says Howie, “keep my affairs in order”.
A California based company, 23andME, Inc., has secured FDA approval to market the at home genetic tests. Still, local Alzheimer's experts are urging caution—and encouraging patients to discuss the testing with their doctor, first.
“Do your homework beforehand,” urges Diana Kerwin, M.D., Texas Alzheimer's & Memory Disorders, “is it going to affect you from getting disability insurance? Long-term care insurance? Is it going to cause you to be anxious? Is it going to cause your family to anxious?”
Dr. Kerwin says knowledge of genetic risk factors can be helpful if it encourages patients to make healthier lifestyle choices in a nudge toward prevention. However, she also says it's important to remember that a 'risk' is different than a diagnosis.
“We have patients that do get Alzheimer's and don't have the genetic marker and we have other patients that don't get Alzheimer's and have that genetic marker,” says Dr. Kerwin, “so it's not a guarantee and people really need to understand that.”
As for what will come next for her father, Howie, says they haven't figured that out. But, stresses that faith is a constant in uncertain times.
“Just because we have the faith doesn't mean it's not scary, we just know he'll be there for us.”
http://newscdn.newsrep.net/h5/nrshare.html?r=3&lan=en_US&pid=24&id=YPb353a8bMC_us&app_lan=&mcc=311&declared_lan=en_US&pubaccount=ocms_0&referrer=200620&showall=1&mcc=311
ADXS is handling things in-house, AVXL is likely going to outsource manufacturing and distribution.
How many shares does Dr. M and the board hold, out of the 41m? (I'm at work and cant do full fledged research).
We need 22m shares to vote 'for', can skmeone run the numbers?
But yes, I think you have valid points, but the most obvious issue is usually the most likely, and I think Kings' is just tying off loose shares. Its their job to get everyome voted, so they are doing their job. I got a call some 2 months ago from them - so I dont think they are being desperate, just diligent.
Effectively, you are correct.
The vote is to give a % of shares to another company in some sort of partnership deal. Otherwise yes, you are absolutely correct, why make them 'preffered shares' when they could just re-dilute with 'common shares'?
Ipso facto, this has nothing to do with dilution or raising cash, and everything to do with a partnership.
homestreet, glad to know I was able to help, but my credit and thanks must go to others as well, as we have all come together to help each other through these interesting times.
I just hope Anavex can bring 2-73 and the rest of the pipeline to the masses sooner than later, and put all the doubts, FUD, and everyone's arguments on this board behind us.
Hopefully as a byproduct, we can also continue being rich :)
Ha! Yes :)
I had them for sale this AM, but this pr will likely keep the SP around $6 - so no point selling them. (I bought 3k at $4.80, but I think I'll keep them till we hit ~$10).
Gentleman's agreememt, if you stay quiet, then I too wont post anything until after the SHM.
I disagree with you that 'it wasn't as good as they hoped,' because the data already WAS as good as they hoped and better at 12 months. (You're basically saying 'they wouldn't go to the baseball game if it rains' but last week, they went to the baseball game and it also didn't rain) - in essence, your argument is rooted in an illogical loop of disregarding facts.
Here's the only scenario that makes sense - because the data was unequivocally good as indicated in December release (Seriously, can we put the 'bad data' question to rest already?)
Anavex put the poster in place as a holder (because they had to submit for it ~3 months ago) - they had 5 or six type holders. Then they got a deal of sorts with a BP, probably Biogen, to exclusively license 2-73 for MS.
Dr. M tells them they can use 2-73 for MS, but they CAN'T use 2-73 for Alz or Retts or Parkinsons, (Because Retts and MJFF have already funded 2-73 for those indications, so to cancel 2-73 for those clinical's would be in poor taste) or that Biogen can partner with those other indications, but it'll be a tighter licensing deal. These negotiations go on for months. They reach a conclusion in March-ish, and due to stipulations, 2-73 has to be held under wraps until the official contract announcement which alone can take MONTHS to get right and signed off on. In the meantime, or maybe per Dr. M's specific request, Anavex has engineered a protection plan with the poison pill to protect the company from uninvited accumulation, knowing that once the cat is out of the bag, there's no f-ing way they're getting it back in.
Why Biogen? Because they've lost 20% of their stock value and BILLIONS OF DOLLARS in recent months due to failure and poor outlook. Biogen is on the verge of desperation and will buy or license anything to save it.
There may be other partners, but they are not on the radar. Maybe there will be a partner per region (Asia, US, Europe) who knows. To speculate would be simply speculation for the sake of having something to talk about.
Worst case scenario, the April SHM is in regards to raising cash to go it alone - but if that was the case, he'd have released data to keep the company in the spotlight and keep the share price higher (if cash raise was his intention).
So, IMHO, a 'PR moratorium on 2-73 is likely due to a BP partnership,' which should be explained better after the SHM.
Otherwise f-it, I (and no one else) has any idea what the hell is going on and we are all just a bunch of badgering ladies at a bake sale trying to tell ourselves that our brownies are the best or your apple pie is not, or how you would have made the muffins with choclate chips instead of blueberries for one reason or another, and oh by the way, how do you think next month's quilting-fest will go?
Short answer: not really.
Long answer: Not really, because there was nothing revealed to swing the stock either way. The only inferred positivity was Saturday's poster on the McGill study on 3-71 indicating reversal of brain damage due to AD - but as we've all seen with 2-73's roller coaster, it doesn't mean anything until it means something. The other two poster/speaking events were non-impactful in my opinion.
Hopefully some sort of PR is released tomorrow to buoy the stock, otherwise I'd expect a drop of sorts.
I dont understand the question
Agreed. And if nothing substantial is revealed to explain the votes before, during, or immedietly following the SHM, i would expect a mutiny of sorts.
There's nothing that says they are for sure in talks with a BP - but there are more than a few indications that something good is on the horizon:
The poison pill, the sudden silence on 2-73 when it had showed 57week data that all patients improved, the MTA to Biogen, pending Retts and PD MJFF studies, nearly doubling of institutional ownership, and those if those could all be considered bread slices, there have also bee other breadcrumbs here and there.
So long run, I expect good things, but short term, Im expecting a drop.
Due to no new "cookie cutter" data, this will easily be bashed down Monday with some spin that "Missling is hiding bad data and is simply conducting smoke and mirror activities to keep the investors in the game until share holder meeting for dilution request, - and Alz has a 99% failure rate, and Anavex is no different."
Not going to pie, i was expectig SOME good data this weekend, but fucking nothing.
Im keeping my core, but closing out my margin account and buying back in. Might see us test high $4's Monday if coordinated bashing occurs - but $4 is a great re-entry point in prep for SHM because SOMETHING is up (partnership talks, etc) but the immediate 76hrs doesnt look fun.
There will likely be NO 2-73 related AD updates until or just after the conference call / partnership announcement.
Two reasons,
1) any positive updates will drive up share price - and the partner may not want to pay the inflated price.
2) partner may not want to reveal that they are in negotiations bc they do not want a bidding war to start for AVXL/2-73 and have Anavex get a deal that it cant refuse by a different BP.
Therefore, a moratorium on any 2-73 related data until after April 18th.
It looks like just the options did, I'm not having any issues buying on regular margin. I think this indicates that all the people in the know, to include the financeers, know something explosive is brewing.
For damn near sure, 2-73 has been licensed out to Biogen for MS (90%). Due to no recent relevant release of information (because of a Non Disclosure Statement) about 2-73.
2-73 for AD is also licensed out, 50%
Biogen may have struck a deal to help with the Parkinsons and other indications as well through 2-7370%
2-73 will likely remain an Anavex only compound for Retts. 80%
Whoever the current partner is, may have struck a 'first to decide' deal in for 3-71. No BP would put time and effort in with 2-73 and leave 3-71 non negotiated. 70%
If even 2 out of 5 of these are spot on/PR'd, then we will be in the $20's.
Three scenarios coming up, and the investor’s call will say it all.
1.) The good – Investor’s call will indicate positive development on all fronts, FDA movement, Retts, Biogen, and partnership type news. 52 week data with PK analysis is revealed and positive. We stay cash buoyant and keep on keeping on –the end of the month reveals even more data on 2-73. Some mention of Japan/Asia or Australia is extrapolated on, and as a side note, 3-71 future potential is mentioned but is not the primary showcase, something along the lines of ‘if 2-73 works this well, just wait till you see 3-71!’ Only the truly nefarious will be heard speaking ill of Anavex, stating some obscure mention of unreliability of a ‘32’ patient study, while the institutions that are gathering shares by the millions silence them by action and gains in share price. We will have the ‘poison pill’ ready but not use it, because a Partner says ‘the hell with it’ and ponies up serious cash ranging in the Billions.
2.) The medium – Investor’s call will be vanilla, the primary purpose is to raise our limit from 20% to something higher. The purpose of this raise will be ambiguous at best, likely to stave off a hostile bid, but no details otherwise. There are several ‘tip of the iceberg’ assurances followed by a lot of conjecture by those on Investor hub. We have witnessed several of these investor calls already and while ‘we’ think they are good, the general market doesn’t seem to give a flip. Non-flipping-giving will continue, and us on the board will be reassured in the science but maybe not the share price. The Board will not tell us too many details for reasons unknown, but reasons may be implied or concluded to. The zealous of us lot will continue to motivate the rest of us to keep the faith, typing in CAPS and EXCLAMATION POINTS!!! while the realists of the lot will understand something is brewing but not be terribly excited or impressed (because let’s face it, a crappy PR is about as good as no PR), and the nay-sayers will have their moment in the spotlight, to which the zealous and realists will shrug and buy shares when the price falls below a certain threshold none of us wanted to see coming but maybe 123Tom mentioned as a resistance point in the FIB scale. Some institutions will sell, others may add quietly, the rest of us will wonder what the hell is going on and what are we really going to see at the end of month conference (more of the same? Nothing on 2-73 and only some preclinical posters on 3-71?)
3.) The bad – Investor’s call is uninspiring, giving indication that we need to raise money because all potential partners are playing hardball (because they want us to fail so they can pick us up on the cheap and desperate, or because 2-73 PK data is indifferent at best and poor at worst) and potential partners are not giving us the conditions and terms we feel we deserve. So we need more funding, either through warrants, LPC, or increasing the % shares available on the open market (which results in a perceived or actual dilutive ‘go it alone’ scenario). No PR’s are shared, and the end of month Conference deals only with 3-71 and generic preclinical studies with 2-73 that is a rehash of old news. Investors are befuddled and feel misled, like the stop-market inducing drops in summer of 2016. AF and JF and all the other Mafia cronies dance around the bonfire in glee while touting AXON and 99.99% Alzheimer failure rate, while we on I-Hub ruminate on having to wait another year or two at the earliest.
SO, the scenarios are good, medium, bad. I would love for it to be scenario 1 and all of us dance in joy, but I think it’ll be scenario 2 at best. What makes it worse is that I know 2-73 works without a doubt, so the science is sound, but the business aspect of what is going on is hyper tricky. It’s like Dr. M is in a mine field surrounded by barbed wire while juggling bowling pins and balancing on a unicycle. I’m sure he CAN do it, but it doesn’t mean I don’t say ‘oh shiii….’ whenever a pin is in the air or the unicycle starts to tilt.
I’m saying 90% scenario 2 with a 8% for scenario 1 and 2% for scenario 3. I want 2-73 to work and Anavex become the next BP, desperately so, but 2 years of up and downs on manipulation to stumbled PR roll outs is starting to wear on me.
With that, this’ll probably be my last post until April. I’m exhausted.
We have the poison pill because someone wants to acquire us on un-friendly terms.
I don't doubt 2-73 works, I'm just saying if these conferences don't 'wow' as people are expecting them to, then it'll be a fizzle and not a pop.