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That's about right.
Blast from the past. Good times :)
Should be a lot but it won't necessarily be reflected all at once. NW has several things to do to graduate to the big leagues.
The reason the post I replied to was garbage is that the investment strategy that I was "accused" of implementing is a dumb strategy. If you follow securities laws, it doesn't have a positive expected return because of regulatory limitations and borrowing costs. I understand no one has 100% assurance that what I write here is true, but you don't need to. I practice profitable -- not unprofitable -- investment strategies. That's all you need to know.
As far as a going concern, yes, NW is one and has been one for most of the last decade plus. If they get a UK approval, they will most assuredly not be one much longer.
Last point, I don't see a financial restructuring, but if there is one the warrants will be treated worse than common. We all know the priority: secured debt, unsecured, pref, common, options/warrants. It is true that holding a warrant, or any unusual security, represents an option to renegotiate terms. But it's always give something to get something. Warrant holders have to come to the table with significant new capital. If NW fails to receive approval, it will be very hard for me to mitigate downside (e.g., I could infuse capital and get a zillion shares, but I couldn't practically sell them). If NW fails, I'll be riding over the falls with the rest of you.
Offhand I don't know what it is, but your guess is reasonable. As you know, you can issue a derivative on anything... stock returns perhaps, but is there anything else that you can think of that has a monetary outcome for NW?
I think the reaction to MHRA submission should be quite positive because we won't be waiting on NW to get the next milestone complete. The toughest issue with NW is the failure to timely execute. Bulls are tired and bears are, honestly, I don't understand you guys at all. What's the point? NW doesn't seem a big enough company for all the effort. You're not out here to save us from our foolishness.
I agree with your assessment and that's why I've engaged with him at times. Recently I've been incredibly busy with an early-stage AI company, I'm my bandwidth for banter has declined. If fact, I'm going to pivot and go work on their pitch deck now.
I'm sorry I neglected to answer your question. I have absolutely no concern about discovery.
I haven't shorted to stock in years. There was a time when I did -- but not as some arbitrage against some warrants/convertible -- but simply because I thought the trial was in trouble and the stock was going down. I shorted only what I could borrow. At that time, he only long NW security I held were non-convertible promissory notes.
Once I realized that DCVax was showing survival benefits and there was a possibility of a successful trial, I covered my short and then started to purchase equity. From this point forward I never shorted stock. It's not because I think there is anything wrong with doing so, it's that one can't do it profitably unless you are (i) manipulating the stock through predatory behavior, (ii) are a broker dealer, or (iii) willing to break securities laws.
I don't violate securities laws. It's 100% clear to everyone who works for me that skirting rules means immediate termination. When I was an active hedge fund manager, the SEC would periodically contact us requesting information. I was high profile enough that I had to give testimony once. They never found a single thing wrong. I don't want to sabotage my own peace of mind, so I avoid doing stupid things like that.
Sorry for sounding preachy but this board is so full of baiting, misrepresentations, and faulty thinking that it's hard to read.
So, no, I'm not the least bit concerned about discovery and, if the NW matter survives, I expect we will press our own suit since, on May 10 2022, I can show damages in the tens of millions of dollars.
I would be happy to have an honest conversation with you but are you willing to do so as well? My guess is that's not's not what's on the menu.
I'm just trying to keep the ratio of valuable / garbage posts moving in the right direction. Flipper -- though he was somewhat negative on some of my recent posts -- provides insight. I have no issue with posters who disagree with me or my position, including those that present a bear case.
The issue is whether you're just stinking up the place with inane garbage.
I allegedly didn't think to ask.
Flipper, you have my vote and respect. Stick around.
I don't think it's a reason to sell the stock, but I'm not thrilled about.
I think I hold more than you at this point.
Just to be clear, I've lost paper profits right along with other shareholders as the stock price has declined.
I still have unrealized gains since most of my position was established around $0.20 per share and below when Adam, and other bears, were telling us what idiots we were for being long.
Yes, based on a UK regulatory approval. Without that it's tough. With it, it will be a whole new world.
True. Had a number of those as well.
I don't blame you, or other shareholders, for being frustrated. I have many frustrations too but, after a career of dealing with early-stage companies, I've developed a certain tolerance. I've had several big winners where I had to first cross the hot coals of frustration.
Yes, I agree.
Just a few and that was in trade for something else. It was a fair trade. As I said, I excised warrants and invested in new securities. I used up a prepayment that I made in December.
With respect to your shorting comment (though I assume you know better but decided to say it anyway) it makes zero sense for someone with tens of millions of shares long to short stock when the short rebate is negative.
A UK submission and combo trials are independent. One is not waiting for the other.
surprise, surprise
A UK approval changes everything. Approval would mark a paradigm shift. Combos / other solid tumors / strategic partnerships / acquisition.
Not saying it will be, but some disappointment on reimbursement is not that significant.
Did people give up on the first solar panels because the margins were too low (they were)?
I'm on the edge of my seat.
Yes, the reason for my original post over the weekend was to confirm that the UK filing will happen shortly, but I also felt I should take responsibility for misjudging the timing.
I knew I would get a bunch of inane comments and this board didn't disappoint.
You've all seen evidence that there is significant support in the UK for DCVax among doctors, patients, charities, and politicians (the environment). Regulatory approvals are determined by people who make judgements on the data in the context of the environment. It's clear the UK is a very good venue for us, and we have a good chance at approval.
Yes, I figured out it was my mistake. I hadn't been on these boards so long; I was a little rusty.
Unfortunately, the NW board has declined a lot. They're starting to eat their own.
You're 100% right on the regulatory landscape: compound pharmacies will not be able to legally sell off-label Bevacizumab, once Lytenava is approved. But the transition won't happen at once.
First, there will likely be lawsuits that claim Lytenava isn't the same as off-label Bevacizumab (after all, it is a Bevacizumab biosimilar). Until the lawsuits have played out, there still may be some competition from off-label. But insurance companies (via step edit programs) and doctors will bear higher risk if they continue using off-label.
Second, the FDA is responsible for compliance. The FDA will have to prioritize this regulatory breach over others.
But, overall, I think there will be a strong current toward Lytenava over off-label Bevacizumab. A great return from here doesn't require very much market share.
p.s. I mistakenly thought you sent this message to me on the NW board. Obviously, you didn't.
Hey all, I'm gonna go do something more productive. Talk later.
Just answer one last question I saw before I leave. Yes, my warrants were expiring. I've could have negotiated an extension, but the company wanted the cash. I sent in additional cash for the purchase of new securities. No warrants attached to the new securities.
In all fairness, almost no financial investor would send funds and then agree on terms. I can get away with it because (i) NW knows I'm good for more, so there is an incentive to be reasonable, and (ii) since it's my own capital, I don't take on fiduciary risk.
I've had discussions with Bigger and other large investors on this topic. So far each of us has given guidance to NW on how to improve governance and communication. These issues will be pressed much harder after a UK approval.
I should have been more careful with my answer. I sent the company $$ at December end and then finished my transactions in 2Q and sent additional capital. Was there another 3M or was it mine? I remember answer responding to questions about a $3M tied to a possible strategic transition, and I said I had "no insight", because I took that as a different $3M. To answer your question carefully, I need to go through each recent 10K/Q and reconcile. If it was super important, maybe, but I don't think it's worth the time. There will be combo trials in collaboration with established pharma and academic institutions, in my view, but I'm mostly focused on the UK.
This board is Lord of the Flies reimagined.
Yes, that's fair
I have only one principle here. What I say is what I believe at the time. That's not a guarantee.
I hadn't been on this board for a couple of months, and I just thought I should let people know I'm still around. No more complicated than that.
It's clinical stage bio. People should not bet the kids' college funds though I think the odds are in their favor.
I've talked to the company several times about talking with their shareholder base more. They reference how so many people are gunning for them and use that as an excuse. I think they're wrong.
I thought what was being discussed was some strategic investment and I had no insight into that.
I already did this years ago, if you want to check. I could show recent sizable wire transfers.
But it's not like I'm on here often incessantly pumping or bashing the stock, so why do I have to beg for your approval?
I've given some explanations like that, but I don't believe them. I just think this Northwest and they can't get anything don't quickly.
I thought we were yin and yang. We need each other.
yes, part of my invested capital went to warrant exercises.