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Bourbon...agree with your assessment...these are not random events
Will we see an end of day POP? I say Yes.
JJ...Great observation/question.
Falconer, Xena...we called it...read on...what a concept...ASK THEM HOW THEY FEEL. IMO, todays PR/NEWS on AD was held until FDA speaks about process...now all hands...general quarters...THIS IS NOT A DRILL
Tred...yes, I think that is...
trade...agree but would emphasize that DR M has said (evidence indicates) A2-73 will restore CNS cellular Homeostasis (see falconer for details). We are in the process of validating that claim (some would say AGAIN). There is a distinction between validation of a process and claiming a compound will produce results X or Y, cure, etc. In the classical quality sense validation is the reproduction/repeated method to prove that a critical outcome which cannot be measured/verified like welding w/o destroying it(in this case AD by autopsy) will consistently produce conforming/complying products. "So what you say"? Well, this A2-73 becomes a piece of cake from a trials standpoint. We claim A2-73 treatment will result in a CNS cellular change (see falconer), this process of change will mitigate AD symptoms(among others). So, instead of trying to hit a bullet w/a bullet he is changing the game completely. There will be no debate, the process either works or it does not(see Falconer). IMO, this different thinking is the basis for his "tip of the iceberg" comment. More to follow.
A subtle but critical change from the old school thinking of hiting a bullet w/a bullet.
Hope so.
Bourbon...It mat be that some day we look back on the "Silent Period" as a blessing. B/C it is surer than hell gonna end soon.
October 27, WSU and MS?
Does anyone have a thought on 10/27 conference and what Biogen will be doing between now and then? Like a PR ref. AVXL? OR What? Something to start the ball moving?
Just curious what is plausible-likely based on expertise here. The string of events (10/27MS-10/30PD-11/04PK/PD-11/13RETT-11/14 AD) is going to start before we know it.
Hope I got the dates right.
Curious, will this pattern you predict happen regardless of news on science/trials or other PRw+? At what point does the value of the AVXL brand matter?
XENA...agree...this is the opposite of breakthrough. Or, expressed as a question...What is the opposite of BTD?
[quote Massaging drugs that don't work through multiple phases with forced stats created the failure][/quote]
treden...GREAT POST. Thanks
power...nice catch...
Game on..
[quoteTo incorporate the patient’s voice in drug development and decision-making, the FDA will systematize the collection and use of patient and caregiver data.
https://www.certara.com/2017/10/06/fda-reauthorization-act-fdara-affirms-commitment-to-innovative-midd-strategies/ ][/quote]
Mike...this nails it doesn't it.
Totally agree. My point was, these tools for learning will be used to lift the curtain on a body of knowledge which is critical to moving forward. Possibly to even better understand causes. Not just your father's oldsmobile kinds of trials.
"Biogen currently has several Alzheimer's therapies in development," he wrote. Its Alzheimer's disease pipeline "remains a must-own catalyst
REALLY? WHAT?
McM, you might appreciate this paper. See conclusion.
http://www.cell.com/trends/immunology/pdf/S1471-4906(15)00305-1.pdf
bear-Reyeton....good stuff.... encourages us to think this through.
[quoteIf 11/4 doesn’t provide convincing and substantial data supporting dose dependent cognitive improvement/stabilization over 18/24 months along with further evidence/benefits of “restores cellular homeostasis”, then I will reassess this holding; however if they DO indeed illustrate same then all bets are off and patients/caregivers should rightfully be demanding fast access to this compound. ][/quote]
We have speculated here that Dr. M. radio silence tactic has been implemented to keep the rat pack out of the game. I agree w/that thinking and also expect(as you suggest) that CNS disease patients and families have been through enough already. The "Best & Brightest" have presented no effective treatments until now. Keeping a low profile while going above and beyond while getting data lined up to ensure certainty is a massive obligation considering risks. With luck, the trial and error days are behind us all. So, when the balloon goes up we better be right b/c the line will get long, fast.
Bourbon...good summary.
Many opportunities as you point out. Since Dr. M. has chosen to stay off the horizon (as a target) AVXL SP is not affected by speculation on obvious opportunities in the PR piece. So, the good news is we are not on some daily SP rollercoaster driven by unknown dark forces. Although, it is hard to be credible and be silent also.
I agree with the AVXL plan so far, let the data do the talking
Turner/Debt2 AD has had no shortage of press attention and government support for decades. The the most obvious and unfortunate conclusion drawn is.."SO WHAT?". 99.6% of all attempts have failed to date but the rewards are soo great some keep attempting solutions with minor variations of the same basic clinical approach. Really? C'mon man...it's 99.6% wrong, that is as bad as it gets.
Dr.M. has claimed that if he establishes CNS cellular homeostasis that A2-73 will have some restorative/regenerative effect in patients with AD. AVXL have done small scale trials and preclinical work which presents evidence he may be heading in the right direction. Various trials (>2) are now about to begin on better understood (read measured) CNS diseases which we pray will show dramatic/almost immediate results. This ihub board (team) comprised on many informed posters assesses every fly spec of evidence/information trying to figure it all out. Others feel obligated to periodically attack them. Why? Who cares.
I claim 375 or some multiple means something regarding SP. is it 3.75x, .0375x,375x ? I am going w/$375/share in some kind of deal.
As someone here says...We'll see. Soon.
Yes,
I called one time...I think I spoke w/him directly. He was encouraging me to keep expecting news...that was months ago
An open question on AVXL trades and SP.
Is there any simple explanation for the low volume/SP for AVXL. Is it as simple as the rest of the world (ROW) simply does not think this is a legitimate company/investment(like most small biotech) .....OR....is there some dark side conspiracy to keep the buying public away?
IMO, we have a low profile management policy by design and consequently on any given day we are stealthy. Will there be any kind of PR build up driven from within or will event news be sufficient?
EBZ...excellent point...
bear...very impressive array of top shelf conferences where A2-73 is specifically called out in non-obtuse, non ambiguous manner. That strikes me as unusual for a specific molecule to be identified in such a way in so many indications. Nice to see such open-full frontal declaration.
Attil..Thanks, that is a lot of opportunity...
Gernee...agree w/this am optimistic, good news, the sooner the better for me
nope it was Gordon...genius he was