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TC65:
Jon:
benny
Quote from recent PDD trial PR:
dia76ca....yes, it is a leap but so is microbio investing...your rational and cup half full tone is appreciated. Along these lines, M plays his cards close to the vest, which adds to the sense of risk.
IMO, the FDA and other such regulatory bodies would do well to expedite these trials and to verify that good form is being continuously applied by all parties. As you point out, they obviously see the interest of their countrymen/patients as their primary obligation. Safe and effective treatment in this CNS disease domain is long overdue. Some of us see the PM process as a learning opportunity (unlike previous dark days of trial and error). Many would like a one size fits all solution but will accept custom treatment based on DD and solid clinical practice/data. Uncertainty on time base tends to add to the analysis of investor risk. B/C the past has produced continuous failures some have given into picking through results looking for signs of goodness and lies. There must be a clinical term for our behavior.
IMO, the next news will come from either BP or 3rd parties/regulatory when they have studied the AVXL results and plans. AVXL will defer to others for their expression of belief/interest in the meantime. I expect that to happen soon and that conclusions will be favorable.
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(SSBN-623), thanks for your service. VS-28-Task Group Bravo.
Thoughts on what's next, excluding new trials discussion.
We have seen a backing away from their BIIB AD-BAN PR blitz as they typically do. (see recent AAIC week) Cannot say if that is part of a plan, real or imagined but it is a change.
We would look for follow up analysis from investment blogs and other sources w/comments on A2-73 trial performance reported at CTAD and planned coming events. Silence there will also tell us something. So, maybe the rest of the world is unaware of any significance associated w/CTAD 2018. Are AVXL results seen as just another micro claiming big news while crickets await next trial cycles?
My sense is we read the smoke signals while plans move forward for PDD, RS and AD. Maybe good news will come from potential partners, or a regulatory body, we need to keep a watch for subtle signs as evidence the rest of the world is awake and cares. This all translates into +sp.
My private hope is that someone with legitimate RWE/RWD starts to be seen and heard. Radio silence is not what I expect. A long time ago I was pretty good at finding a periscope in rough seas on radar. One has to practice to look for something that should not be there. When I found a possible we have two levels of alert. Level 1 is possible but must be confirmed ..call it a "SPOOK", level 2 is a hard find of likely Periscope which should not be there we call that "BOGEY". Both sightings in this case will be considered as positive indications. So, call spook or bogey.
I try to understand why something is missing or ambiguous. If I can convince myself AVXL are protecting IP or a strategic move then it helps. When ambiguous comments are subsequently contradicted I get very nervous. So far there is not a lot of that. Like falconer, I also look for contradictions in claims or evidence, so far so good. For example the whole Amyloid Thesis thing was riddled w/contradictions. Areas where any claim of efficacy could not be claimed with any integrity.
Dr.M. said that Safety was key and of course he was right, so far so good. That will remain key.
Please everyone...Calm Down, we have not come all this way to get unduly alarmed. Risks do exist everywhere and this investment is risky of course. The antidote for risk is informed discussion leading to knowledge, which is what we are doing. I Hope.
"The Pen and The Sword,...in accord'. Miyamoto Musashi.
steady T, Investor, Biostockclub, others....great work. Thanks for your insights and assessments. It all helps the process of learning. Isn't it great to have the this kind of data. The Amyloid Thesis guys were not so generous. The PM process and the open work culture will continue to enable open team thinking and interaction. The output will be greater than the sum of the parts.
I am hopeful that the analysts at the big investment houses will do similar work and that they will recommend continued growth for AVXL. Expect some of that to show this coming week in sp growth. If the Amyloid thesis work is being put aside then resources in BP may look seriously at A2-73 and other AVXL CNS disease possibilities. Someone has to tell then that it is OK to want AVXL to win. If Dr.G. and the FDA brain-trust are half as smart as we think they are they will at least comment on these CTAD results positively.
Yes, more trials must be run and more discoveries will occur in the process but at least now it is a matter on WHEN, NOT IF CNS diseases will be treatable. What a concept.
These are the kinds of PR-News that we need.
Maybe it is just that simple, the rest of the world does not follow AVXL's every single minutia move-story....HUH, GO FIGURE...maybe some of us should get a life and just waaaaait. NNAAAHHH
Me Too..on this .."
investor2014: Congratulations for a very well done assessment:
Summary discussions? What's next?
Biostockclub, simply brilliant and a lot of work. Thanks.
Agree Talon. I am looking for G or M or W to trigger a political/scientific avalanche. When WS gets it they will be all over AVXL SP . The good news is, it looks like a process of discovery which will lead to effective CNS disease treatments is being recognized. A Fleming moment awaits.
Ggator328:
Talon, funny you should ask.
We should all note this day as Kitty Hawk or some equivalent (Fleming moment) event, first AD treatment that is effective on AD patients following 3 years treatment. This is both a political and medical milestone day.
IMO, if Dr.G. was on his game he would jump on this and use it to declare Precision Science wins it's first battle. Dr.M. will second that. This type of trial is unique b/c people actually can LEARN SOMETHING from the trial, other than pass/fail.
Also, if the WS BP analysts were anywhere near as smart as they claim they will recognize that effective immediately the FDA will jump on this and accelerate every A2-73 trial and run the PM flag to the top of the pole. G & M have both a political and medical victory, all they have to do is say so. Dr.G. started it, Dr M collaborated and they won. PM is a giant success as a trials process. DECLARE VICTORY.
And, all A2-73 trials now be accelerated as it promises to be an effective CNS disease treatment like nothing else ever.