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We will probably never know who actually pulled the trigger. A consensus or not. But, the close timing to Dr. Gottlieb taking control, the nucleation/cluster of BP trial withdrawls from the Amyloid Thesis shortly after that, the timing of this guidance doc soon after along w(MY GUESS)...the FDA said they will no longer support (spend $$/limited resources on) trials that needed many, many years and which to date produced nothing of consequence. BTW, they were already aware that AD testing based on cognitive criteria was highly suspect. If individual sponsors pulled out, so what, other BP would continue if they had promise. In fact, other BP would love to be the last man standing, if they had a winner. IMO, the FDA told them if they keep going, the FDA will not protect them any longer.
In other words Amyloid thesis AD trials presented a big expensive effort that was about to blow up in their collectives faces. IMO, this is only one piece to the FDA's troubled pattern. We will probably never really know the truth but my sense is they are all politicians at the end of the day.
Talon38
https://www.fda.gov/downloads/Drugs/GuidanceComplianceRegulatoryInformation/Guidances/UCM596728.pdf
This guidance document provides important insights into the context w/in which the AVXL trials are playing out. I am not claiming mine is the only reading to use but it is at least a start for me to make some sense out of what is going on.
We recognize that the AD treatment efficacy," on the path to overt dementia" has check points which trial sponsors have debated.(are the stages even real they say?) The trial debates seem to trip over cognition vs functional diagnostic criteria. We have seen clinical observation text stating they are not sure there really is stage 1, it goes from there. My limited understanding all along has been w/o knowing how to measure AD then we are doomed to multi year trials in an effort to prove some science. So far this trials practice goes no where but it is all there has been.
The brilliance (I claim) of the AVXL trial plan w/PDD and RS is it should show the MOA (thx XENA) demonstrated in these should show/demonstrate FUNCTIONAL (sleep, spasm, movement range, etc) results which are more easily and accurately measured early on a time line. The end points will demonstrate this plan and (IMO) RWE/RWD will support along w/caregiver reports and anecdotes. So what you say, we already knew that. So, before the dementia curtain starts to come down on AD patients valuable time is lost, we have to get that back while we try to develop biomarkers that really tell us something. IMO, that is what is going on right now while we wait for the trials to start. Since AD stage cannot yet be measured w/confidence (functional) until it is too late the PDD/RS trials are vicariously on the point while the AD debate of function vs cognition rages for stage 1,2. The early choice of these two CNS disease trials as indicators (along w/other choices we do not know about) are evidence of a good plan.
Stand by, we are going to actually learn something about CNS diseases, then comes applied knowledge.
Biostockclub and Treden...Sounds like we are each on the same thought process path. We might ask, "when is sooner better?". When I read and re-read a previous post which showed the PR from Barcelona it hit me right between the eyes. BTW, that post ( I will look for it again) made It clear that the extensive, multi year trails process for CNS has allowed us to go w/o any clue/chance (unless a miracle happens) of finding AD (other CNS diseases). The effectiveness criteria are at least subjective and it takes an excessive amt. of time to declare results (3 yrs+). How can that be called a problem solving/discovery process? My assessment of the current AD (others as well) trials process is that not much can be learned, certainly nothing one can take back to the lab for plan "B". If Dr.G. had not spoken up the BP Amyloid Thesis trials for AD would they likely still be ongoing. When we reflect on the history we have to conclude that it is no wonder that no effective treatments for CNS diseases have been developed. PM and the levels of detail below even A2-73 facts must be studied.
Hi Treden, of course you are correct. I have no idea who is talking behind the curtains. Also, you are correct about the massive potential that AVXL presents.
I am basically a process guy, all work is done by processes. Processes give off evidence (passive/active) which we can pick up on if we pay attention. IMO, it is far to easy for these guys to hide. CNS diseases are overwhelming the public but we keep it hidden. I want us to call these guys out so that we know what is cooking. For example, the multi year massive trail process for CNS diseases has produced nothing, nor does it protect anyone, it is a failed concept which any thinking person would witness after say 10 mins of analysis. This trial process is still up there as some kind of gold standard for "how to" , it is a bad joke and we all suffer b/c of it.
Agree that from time to time silence is a good thing but enough is enough. Get this out in the open, if there is a breakthrough then great, if not, why not?
whippin..thanks for posting this exceptionally well done report. My highlights of points that stuck w/a true representation of AD stage measurement capability status.
http://www.alzforum.org/news/conference-coverage/which-are-right-tests-satisfy-new-fda-guidance27 Nov 2018
It is almost impossible to throw a rock and not hit someone who is directly(immediate family member) or indirectly (neighbor-friend) impacted by some CNS disease. Over the past few years as an AVXL investor I have become more informed as to the scope of these diseases and have also had direct and indirect CNS diagnosis impacts all around me. So my awareness is up and the events have increased. What a friggen shame that so many people are impacted by these CNS curses, it is WW. Every penthouse and mud hut WW is potentially included.
Reading about the symptoms, the ages, kids just learning how to walk. Just tragic and all the while IMO our culture(s) have tended to keep their stories private. It is real and the impact is massive.
If AVXL has an effective treatment then we can bet it will be massive and no little company is going to be allowed to manage the deliverance once the facts are known. For most of us this cannot move fast enough nor become known quickly enough. Sorry, but this is not a drill, not one bit of humor. Carry on.
Nice, amazing knowledge base. Thanks
https://www.ksat.com/news/alzheimers-vaccine-could-cut-dementia-cases-in-half-researcher-says..."once ... has started it's too late". huh.
Thanks to you and to Xena for additional information. I am now even more convinced that facts and information seen over the past couple of years regarding CNS diseases points to numerous broken processes. Certainly, those issues will not be resolved here. No wonder Dr. M. and staff are on the paths they are on. Speed is essential.
If these curves are to be taken as factually accurate then is there any information on causes? (Heart/lung/blood/obese)? I live near a city where the moron mayor has declared the place to be a "sanctuary city". This is a completely irresponsible political act for which he legally cannot held accountable. I can only imagine what staff at the local hospitals and clinics must have to tolerate with who/what ever walks through the door demanding treatment. Not making a political debate but as long as the data includes apples vs apples baseline then the curve says the U.S. must be charged too much for ineffective treatments. The wheels are coming off the U.S. healthcare system which is unsustainable due to corruption (IMO). Thanks for the facts but who needs anything else to piss them off.
If the curves are correct then well done to Chile/Scandinavian/Swiss and Japanese friends. Suggest some graduate student do a thesis on applying all the US rules to a hypothetical case base from Sweden or Chile client/patient base and see what the curve looks like. There has to be an explanation for this.
Note: areas highlighted and underlined are basically word for word what Falconer and other posters have written here. Nice to reread, even if you already knew.
Maybe redundant ref PDD Spain trials:
https://www.pdlink.org/phase-2-trial-testing-anavex-2-73-recruiting-parkinsons-patients-with-dementia-in-spain/
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2017/02/when-evidence-says-no-but-doctors-say-yes/517368/
Best wishes to all our friends here w/special wishes also for our loyal friends outside the U.S.. Very best to all.
I plan to carry a more positive attitude for as long as I can manage it through the holidays, could be days, weeks or more. My thinking is positive that Dr.M knows he has the CNS goods. As mentioned here, AVXL would be unable to attract and retain people like Dr.H.H. and others unless Dr.M. presented a strong/convincing/objective case for the science.
I also believe he will partner up when we are in a position to get what makes sense, not push our luck. He will be better positioned for that after PDD results and certainly RS. The power of the AD trial is doubtless the cherry on the top. So, depending on who he is dealing with (one partner or multiples), we will either see sp escalations which track each event or an initially larger sp as each result is presented.
Having had some experience dealing w/BP executives I feel the last thing these people want to do is be seen as failures after years of efforts in pursuit of the Amyloid Thesis solution (for example). Dr. M. has his work cut out, as each result is developed/verified and documented consideration must define HOW effective A2-73 is proven to be. With each positive result the price/discussions will escalate also. After decades of brain bleeds/swelling, projectile vomits and other results being called acceptable they have a tough place to bargain from. Great if all patients benefit in some measurable manner with end points being proven/met. Not sure how good we are at grading on a curve or defining success in previously untreatable CNS diseases. We'll figure it out.
So, I am certain we will present an effective treatment for CNS diseases. We want to keep an open mind for pass(scale 30-100) on results, (0-30) not so much, unless we learn why. The $300 number seemed right to me.
WOW is correct...the courage of those looking at facts is gratifying when truth starts to surface there will be no place to hide for some. well, it's about time. A very useful program for an otherwise dubious congress would be to look at this cost saving opportunity. Obvious massive flaws, as you have suggested in the past...congratulations.
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2010/11/lies-damned-lies-and-medical-science/3082
"no science proof against us yet" Read on.
When lives are on the line science must verify facts. Contradictions must be understood. When "Amyloid Thesis" driven researchers continued to ignore contradictory evidence they were doomed. This paper provides some thinking on why they might have done so. Dr.M. has said he is not driven by the need to prove an hypothesis. Will AD patients who do not respond in a currently measurable way be treated as A2-73 contradiction to his thinking or as simply being on a different part of the curve which we must all certainly be on? Contradictions are tough things to deal with as they present the interface where unknowns must be acknowledged and discovery happens. Not really up for debate.
same here