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I'm interested in accumulating but that move from the $6's to the teens on no news of significance gives me pause as to where to start accumulating. It doesn't help that the trading range over the last few weeks was ushered in by a mysterious unexplainable spike to $28 on no news. Seems to me the years this stock has spent grinding around low single digits means the average entry price of current investors is much lower than even today's price. The decision of where to locate buys on a buying ladder given the unexplainable action is a tough one.
I was in a software dev. job at IBM when mgmt started using the Jack Welsh nonsense. Top talent saw the handwriting on the wall and left early even though their jobs weren't the ones threatened. Products suffered and eventually the entire Networking Hardware Division collapsed.
The one place I would like to see that mgmt method tried is in government jobs. People of questionable character who think they cannot be fired will end up doing anything and everything.
"What about all the dementia warehouses? What about all the bus drivers who shuttle patients? What about all the day clinics? "
Well, as Nancy Pelosi once said, if they cant find work they can "become a photographer, a writer, a musician, or whatever."
The period for that short interest number ends prior to the Fast Track designation and ensuing volume surge.
Interesting comment on Reddit on institutional price limits
like the much reported $5 limit...
"This is indeed a real thing, though it is going away as information becomes more readily available. Before the advent of computers calculating accurate market cap for a stock on the fly was difficult. This is why the DJ is a price weighted, rather than market cap weighted, index. My understanding is that the $5 rule was a product of an era when market cap wasn't as easy to calculate.
At this time most institutional investors have guidelines in place for the size of companies they can invest in, irrespective of stock price. Before BoA Citi did their reverse stock split there price was under $5 for over a year IIRC. Also the minimum for small cap investments for institutional investors that I have seen has been around $250 million. It just isn't feasible for an institutional investor to invest in a company smaller than that."
That saying comes from Niels Bohr
"Nah, they are just being sloppy "
That doesn't explain why they refuse to reply when people have emailed them repeatedly for clarification.
The term "American Exceptionalism" as is commonly mentioned in the media has nothing to do with the physical characteristics of Americans. It refers to our system of government with people living under a free republic with constitutional restrictions on what the govt can do to you.
These TA posts pose more unanswered questions than a History Channel Ancient Astronaut special ;)
Alzheimer's Research News....
https://www.sfgate.com/science/article/alzheimer-cure-human-sf-gladstone-brain-gene-12822737.php
It'll be interesting to hear what kind of questions (and questioners) are entertained at the end of this call.
Well said. And I would add the apparent inability of anyone with tough (and obvious) questions to participate in the Q&A at the end of CC's adds to a growing lack of confidence.
They drilled through a number of them before it got stuck at 3.90.
Someone wants the price down to a certain level and they keep drilling through large bids as if money is no object to get it there (just like they did back in August, and it popped above $5 within a month). Can't stop'em but you can make money off what they're doing.
"I don't think that's a fund you see. "
That was my point, it isn't professionals.
Rare to see a 50k bid advertised like that. Professionals hide that kind of size.
"Why bloodbath, there was no huge runnup"
Not only was there no run-up but we had a decent base above $6 back when expectations were better for trial start before the end of the year. Then it collapsed to our present $4 range. I would argue that deadline slippage (whether it happens or not) is currently priced in.
Looks like they buy it up when shares are available and then whack it back down when trading thins out and they can take it down easily. Exactly what a short trying to cover might do. Nasdaq SI shows shorts have been covering gradually since March.
It seems abundantly clear to me from all the failed AD P3 trials that just starting a P3 is no indication of the odds of success so I dont know why the start of the next phase would cause investors to pile in and take the stock permanently a lot higher. Does the market really think the odds are significant that Missling will bail on any further action to turn 2-73 into an AD treatment (i.e. not start a P3 )?
"those $4.02's were cancelled."
That should be illegal. I'm sure the SEC will look into it and issue a report in about 6 months saying it was all cosher.
The problem with the question is it assumes the results are either good or garbage. What about results that just lack clarity? People have pointed out how as the updates progressed, previously given detail was dropped (e.g. dose dependency). What if the latest results are not showing dose dependency and that is why no update has been given, and that has lead to this selloff? Would that apparent lack of dose dependency be what you would consider "garbage" results that would send big names fleeing from the BOD? I would think they are much more science focused than results focused regarding a small n trial.
What they're required to report are material events that are not a matter of opinion or interpretation. If the FDA had halted the trial due to unexpected deaths, the halt would be a material event not a matter of opinion . This trial is not even powered for efficacy so what might be considered "bad" efficacy related data showing up since the last update would not have to be reported. The only requirement is that they can't selectively disclose it if they decide to disclose it.
Interesting thoughts. Have you asked the company for the reason? It seems to me if what you say is true, they could (without commenting on the current state of trial participants) at least be expected to say something like "In order to protect the integrity of the next trial we will not be disclosing further P2 data". They have to know that giving no explanation at all makes it look like the data has gone south.
When they set a pattern of giving updates at a major conference and then stop participating without explanation as a trial is concluding it sends a bad signal.
It was unexpectedly good news (i.e. data) that drove the stock from $4 almost immediately up to $6. If anything makes investors begin to think that particular snapshot was an anomaly then all those gains are on shaky ground. Skipping the biggest conference of the year is hardly a sustaining action.
Has Missling said Ariana results would be made publicly available? Seems to me it could contain valuable information that Missling would not want a competitor to know.
Maybe someone fat fingered a buy order. All it takes is one wrong keystroke. If it's news on the way then apparently only one guy knows about it and he only wanted 4k shares.
I bet that seller wishes he still had the 8k shares now. .30 left on the table. Impatience never pays off.
... and maybe they could hire some cheesy promotional firm and end up getting investigated and/or sued all over again. I think Missling is doing just fine avoiding the temptation to pump the stock with fluffy PRs. The stock is doing just fine considering how in the dark we are right now regarding when the next AD trial will begin. The longer term chart is still moving from lower left to upper right.
We sure could use a visit from orveko_inc to
get his take on all this patent activity.
It doesn't matter if the combo is worse than 2-73 alone. As long as the combo ends up being better than the current standard of care it could become the new standard of care.
Good post. I like the healthy skepticism. Investor bias can easily cause one to generalize from evidence that is only anecdotal.
I get all I need out of a simple daily chart with volume, the 50 and 200 DMA's. All I use it for is avoiding greedy chasing or fearful bailing. Since your analysis does not include probabilities of support/resistance levels holding or failing they are essentially just interesting discussion items.
"very specific about the details on price action"
you said...
"I would say the channel bottom is 5.00
or if higher, then maybe 5.15/5.30/5.40
and if 5 dollars fails.... we're looking at 4.80/4.70-4.50 area-4.40 bottom base area. and if that happens, we're looking at a possible range pattern of 6.50 to 4.50, "
So I guess you were "specific" that the channel bottom is 5.00 or maybe 5.40 or if that doesn't hold then 4.80-4.70 or maybe the bottom will be 4.50.
"I could be wrong of course. but so far,on track"
given that you don't commit to where the next direction change will happen, only the various resistance levels where it COULD happen, I don't see how you could ever be wrong. I guess someone could nit pick if a change happens in between resistance levels.
I really don't see why 99.9% of retail did not vote. I dont have a lot of shares and even so they called me multiple times to get me to vote. You didnt even have to go to the web or send in any forms, just tell the guy on the phone how you wanted to vote. If I was pursued then I would have to think all those with the same or more shares were called (more than once if needed).
"the powers that move price know where they intend to take it."
If the "powers" really do have power, they can take any of the TA support and resistance levels (e.g. 50DMA) and cause "fake" sentiment changes via brief violations of those levels to either get people to sell or buy to their own detriment. I wonder how many sold today when the 50DMA was violated. Now its back above that level.
So what's it going to do now that its hit 5.70? bounce or keep dropping? and what good is TA if it doesn't answer that question?