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https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/the-gateway-pundit/ reliability of gateway pundit - low.
Seriously. Google time value of money. Any semi literate financial type will take 99 percent now over 100 percent at some unknown future date.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/timevalueofmoney.asp
Godspeed FranklinC. I've been here a fraction that and am realizing it's time to move on to more productive ways to use my most scarce resource - time.
Good call. Does indeed look like Thursday's 3M AH trade was a massive short cover.
Hot damn I thought there was blood in the streets when it dropped from $15 to $9. CEO & CFO bought. Meshkati and other DD stating this is a great opportunity. Added a bit, and now we're sub $7. Hanging on but can't add. May regret it later, but too much uncertainty with this stock always & can't stomach more adding and losing. Been a long 3~ yrs. I know that's a fraction of those of you pre-BK.
Glad this stock represents much less of my overall portfolio than it once did. Still hoping for the best, but damn this is complicated.
GLTA.
Why would retail buy this company? It’s not on radar for 99 percent of retail outside this mb. Would require big news and by then the price will already be higher.
https://thefly.com/landingPageNews.php?id=2884176&headline=coop-mr-cooper-price-target-lowered-to--from--at-wedbush
Reiterated buy, lowered PT to $13.50. Not as highly rated as Kevin Barker with Piper, but better news to hopefully offer support near-term from this sell-off.
Added 100~ shares to my 2,000~ shares. One day I'll stop adding to this position (maybe). For those of you getting killed in the stock market who are only in this stock, I suggest you stop adding to a single stock and diversify or invest in low cost index funds that diversify for you. While I'm down 40%~ here, I'm keeping up/beating most benchmark. Helps me invest rationally rather than emotionally.
In post 494961 (1 and a 1/2 years ago) you said you were leaving. What happened? Besides, don't sell on the biggest red day in months - at least wait for a bounce.
Kevin Barker with Piper does have a pretty good track record with COOP and other bank stocks...google him and look at his tipranks. Sellside analysts often bring little value, especially in a special situation like WMIH/COOP, but I wouldn't dismiss him as a random chump.
"Piper Jaffray analyst Kevin Barker downgraded Mr. Cooper to Underweight from Neutral and cut his price target for the shares to $9.00 from $15.50. As the company goes through a phase of de-leveraging, earnings expectations will need to come down and the long-term outlook will become more obscure, Barker tells investors in a research note. He believes the stock should trade at a "meaningful discount" to economic tangible book value pending confidence Mr. Cooper can generate ~$1.50/share in GAAP earnings per share. The analyst believes a multiyear process of cost cutting and de-leveraging will result in a "painful near-term reality for shareholders."
Read more at:
thefly
Uhh wow $128 and $8 for millions/billions of servicing rights. Some bargain purchases there huh. Most likely they failed to proofread the 10K? No time to dig thru the prior press releases - were both of those purchases in the millions, or do we not even know?
Seems legit. Thanks for being clear. Hopefully we get a conclusion to this whole debacle soon.
Best to all.
click the windows key in bottom left, start typing snip for snipping tool, click on snipping tool icon, click new, click and drag the area you want to copy. Let go of the click. Then file save the snipped area. Repeat as needed.
I disagree. IMO Hotmeat is often very rational in questioning vague/bold predictions/assertions. A lot of the posters here drink a little too much cool-aid and decide Hotmeat is a bully for not blindly accepting any pro-escrow theory as fact.
Posters who share any capital raise related to any company in the world as money coming to us aren't very helpful. That said it is occasionally hilarious.
GLTA
NSM is 97% institutionally owned. See https://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/nsm/institutional-holdings
Moreover, they've already released an 8-K stating the $6b NOLs will give the newco an additional $1B in cash over the next 10 yrs, assuming they meet earnings projections. Pretty substantial for a co that previously had a ~2B market cap.
When I downloaded the app a couple weeks back it required an account (which I believe meant you had to have a loan through them) to access any features.
Was definitely disappointing - being how much we've seen NSM promoting the product I thought they'd have some good resources for financing/re-financing directly through the app. Great opportunity to attract millennials being squandered right now.
I'm in the market for a house (depending on right home price, interest rates, etc. which are all fairly inflated atm), and will attempt to go through them if it's not a hassle. I'll make sure to report back on my experience if I attempt/do finance with NSM.
Agreed Hotmeat. Trying to decipher the cryptic posts here has gotten so tiring after just a couple years that I no longer bother trying for the most part. Can't imagine the frustration for those of you who have been around much longer.
As Feynman said: "If you can’t explain something in simple terms, you don’t understand it".
I appreciate the efforts and DD a lot of you have tried to do to help retail, but the (intentional?) ambiguity has led me to question the actual knowledge/intentions of many.
LOL - I can't fathom how you seriously believe all of these random notes/capital raises have anything to do with WMIH/Escrows. Throwing darts blindfolded....eventually one is going to hit! Or not.
Good call. That had required info within 25 days. I was hoping for an 8k that would explain our sudden 1.40 to 1.50s pps spike last week, but looks like I'll have to wait.
Looks like he's German. I believe he's trying to ask what happens to escrows after the merger.
To answer - no one really knows. Some are suggesting escrows will still get newco/WMIH shares. Others say no way.
What are you saying here? Jpm had over $24 billion in income for 2017. https://www.jpmorganchase.com/corporate/investor-relations/document/e60a98b9-5333-4004-ab0a-fdb6abf0598a.pdf That being said, a lot of wild speculation going on right now and it'd be nice if people would refrain from posting so the informative posts don't get lost in the noise.
ownership change restrictions apply to the NOLs whether wmih is operating or not.
Thank you good sir. Will be keeping an eye out for your post. A little too busy at work to do my own numbers crunching.
A couple thoughts -
I wonder if we'll see a bounce around 1-2pm EST for margin calls? I'd imagine the bulk of the shorters are institutions, so 4m~ shares short/.50 = $2M outstanding...may not be enough to force the big $ to cover if they haven't already.
If a fair value calculation is significantly higher than the current $1.30~ pps, is the market pricing in a significant chance the deal falls through, or is it more likely the market doesn't understand the potential value from WMIH via NOLs etc. and/or institutions still controlling the price? Who knows.
GLTA! Hopefully this gets to $3+ over the next 6-12+ months.
Yeah you probably know, but for others - note the 6/30 (Q2) at the end of all but two of those. Only 2 say 9/30 (Q3) only add for Q3 is Balter investments at 160k. That said, no material sells for Q3 yet, but 95%+ (and none of the big holders) have submitted for Q3 yet.
LOL ya. I hope that was just a typeo, because that was definitely an LOL moment.
MC / Shares outstanding = .80 = INSIDER TRADING!
In other news, people should realize 95%+ of the 13Fs for Q3 have not been submitted. So stop linking some end of september article like it's anything new. It's almost all for Q2 holdings still.
Only good news so far is according to whalewisdom for Q3 there has been 170k shares added and no material selloffs. That said, that's a very small amount and the PPS indicates it is more likely the funds selling will outnumber funds buying for Q3.
Hopefully we get good news before November, but otherwise we've got Q3 13Fs due in the first 2 weeks, as well as a Q3 10Q..... hopefully we can reverse this painful year+ (and much longer for some of you). GLTA.
Yeah I thought the same thing then looked over the prior 8-Ks. We won't be seeing anymore unaudited monthly financials with respect to WMMRC since the Second Lien Notes have been paid in full.
"Under the Second Lien Indenture, the Company is required to provide, to the holders of the Second Lien Notes, unaudited monthly financial statements with respect to WM Mortgage Reinsurance Company, Inc., the Company’s subsidiary."
Now that "The Second Lien Notes have been fully redeemed by the Company and in connection therewith, the Second Lien Indenture was satisfied and discharged as of October 2, 2017 as provided under the terms of the Second Lien Indenture, which resulted in the release of the liens on the assets of the Company that secured the Second Lien Notes."
Big buy volume (200K~) on the uptick. I'll take it.
You got filled at 1.12 with a market order? Didn't think that was possible for us retail folk... congratz!
Monday or Tuesday ask was $100. Now only if that was the bid! One day?! Baby steps for now....$15 would be amazing
Lvl 2 on a nickel tick stock like this is pretty meaningless. I've watched huge bid and ask walls disappear on relatively small volume (i.e. 200k ask at 1.20 gone after a 10k buy at 1.15).
Am I reading it right that they've downgraded the probability of completing a QA from 90% to 50%? Ouch... this has been a real rough ride. Not sure how that probability was magically downgraded now and not at year end or Q1 end. Pretty disappointing.
"As of June 30, 2017 the following variable assumptions were included in the binomial option model: expected stock price volatility over the term of the convertible preferred securities was estimated at 50%, as compared to 40% as of December 31, 2016; the risk-free interest rate was estimated at 1.1% as compared to 0.6% as of December 31, 2016; the probability of the Company consummating a Qualified Acquisition was estimated at 50% as compared with 90% as of December 31, 2016; and the anticipated timing of the Company consummating a Qualified Acquisition was estimated at 6 months from both June 30, 2017 and December 31, 2016."
Appreciate the DD as usual LG. One thing - I believe GAAP accounting often allows/requires revenue recognition prior to cash being received. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revenue_recognition
So this revenue recognition does not necessarily mean the money has been realized, rather it could just be realisable and JPM is still awaiting the cash payment.
How many people were in the court room? I'd imagine a lot if any big money is on the line for escrows/new Co. Thanks again for your efforts!
Tax reform/cuts need house and senate approval. Moreover, passing the senate would require 60 votes (all 52 republicans + 8 democrats). The only other option would be reconciliation, which requires a simple majority and the plan to be budget deficit neutral. Seems highly unlikely a 35% to 15% corporate tax rate cut would meet the criteria....any magical GDP growth likely wont offset the $5+ trillion projected revenue decrease over 10 yrs. Also, any plan passed via reconciliation expires after 10 yrs.
That being said, corporate tax rates could be in the 25-30% range when all is said and done. Much better for us than a worst case 15% scenario, which appears to be mostly priced in right now.
Was going to post a WSJ article, but to avoid a paywall see:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/trump-to-unveil-proposal-for-massive-tax-cut/2017/04/26/2097fe42-2a94-11e7-be51-b3fc6ff7faee_story.html
If anyone has good sources for odds on the current "plan" passing, I'd like to see them. I can't imagine it's over 20-25%.
Couldn't get a small 1.50 limit buy order filled during the last 1/2 of the day :( Hopefully I can pick up a few more shares on the cheap, as I do see this slowly moving up due to any corporate tax rate change being much less than initially anticipated by the market.
I believe they said they don't want to just do any M/A for a quick profit. They (and KKR) would prefer something that makes sense long-term.
Working for a public company, I know a lot of execs (at my company at least) could care less about the current stock price. If they do a good job and execute their strategy the stock price should eventually follow.
They said everything they needed to at this meeting and I came away feeling okay. Disappointing to hear they will no longer share the 2015 acquisition target with us and the recent KKR acquisition is out of question ($4b is too big :(, they have to be 80% owner in new company per NOL limitations, so it makes a joint acquisition like the current one more difficult), but the 1.75/2.25 floor remain intact and they're working hard to get us an accretive M/A.
I believe KKR has every incentive to make a deal work. Don't the section 382 ownership change limitations make this an unattractive target to take private as the NOLs would be seriously limited/nullified? Feel free to voice your opinions/disagree.
GLTA.
Sorry if this has been pointed out already and I missed it:
"In addition, the model requires the input of an expected probability of occurrence, which we estimated at 90% for both December 31, 2016 and December 31, 2015, and the timing of a Qualified Acquisition which initiates the mandatory conversion, which we estimated at 6 months from December 31, 2016 and 12 months from December 31, 2015."
Been lurking for close to a year now. I know I'm just a baby compared to most of you, but I've been hoping and hoping for the M&A. While it's been a rough 6 months (is it all MM, or has the uncertainty from the election and chances of lower taxes potentially lowering the deferred tax asset from the NOL led to the power PPS!? At this point I believe we have to give the later some credit), them reducing the 90% probability time frame from 12, to 9, to now 6 months in the 10-K gives me a little more hope. GLTA.