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Getting very close my friends, congrats to all that are still here from the early days! I think it’s possible we get news as early as tomorrow.
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-10147403/Shot-arm-Emma-Walmsley-GSK-circles-Aurinia-Pharma.html
Very vague PRs about upcoming positive developments just don’t fly anymore. It gives shorts the perfect ammunition to pounce, not to mention how the algos respond. Hopefully better and more detailed information comes sooner rather than later to correct this.
Still here, at this point I’m hoping to wake up one day to some amazing news at any point. Seems like we’ve been stuck in purgatory. Obviously the pandemic didn’t help their cause at all...
Looks like I don’t have to pick a fight with AF and STAT news again today...much better article. ;)
Moose, most people assume my name is John Galt and don't catch that, lol. I do like to keep my anonymity because there are some nut cases out there. You can find me on Twitter or ST with variations of this same name.
Jess, As you know I've been in Auph since the $2s and have a large position and hopefully get our exit soon! I was also fortunate enough to load NVAX last January in the $3s and that's where most of my attention has been...what a wild ride. TGTX is my 3rd largest holding with an avg. of $16. Got it that one a little later, but absolutely love that ticker. Once AUPH & NVAX play out I will have quite a bit of my portfolio to redistribute and will happily share some of my thoughts.
I'm happy to see so many of you all here holding down the fort! I'm still very active with my investments so don't every hesitate to reach out.
Congrats to all the long-time AUPHers...what a day! Many of us have been eagerly waiting for this for almost 5 years! Congrats to Aurinia as well for finding a way to get the job done with best label possible!
Congrats to all the long-time AUPHers...what a day! Many of us have been eagerly waiting for this for almost 5 years! Congrats to Aurinia as well for finding a way to get the job done with best label possible!
What do you all think? Thinks Auph takes this one ;)
$AUPH $GSK If you were a prescribing physician for Lupus Nephritis or patient needing treatment, which would you choose?
— JG (@BioLunacyJG) January 17, 2021
VOC: Oral(pill), low-dose steroids, Renal response (40.8%vs22.5% @ 52wks)
Benlysta: IV/injections, no strict steroid taper, Renal Response(30%vs20% @ 104wks)
Jail?! Wth Jess lol. I’m happy to report I’m a law abiding citizen and I’m alive and well, and healthy as ever. Still holding my full position. I’ve backed off the social sites the last couple months especially pertaining to Auph because it’s just been a waiting game. I went after Stat news yesterday over their BS article, and looks like it created a bit of a much overdue positive buzz highlighting the differences between GSK’s Benlysta and Voclosporin. I’m John_Galt or Lunacy elsewhere. Looks like the backlash over AF’s article made its way to him while he’s on vacation because he blocked me. Lol
Strong headline this morning. Would love to see the data behind it.
Should be $200m at $15...details haven't been officially announced yet.
Gotta give credit to the current leadership as well. Greenleaf has absolutely taken the baton from Glickman and ran with it, while sticking to the values we've all come to know and appreciate in Aurinia.
Excellent news today...best case scenario! Very few unknowns left. Incredibly de-risked at this point. Ready for the H2 fireworks.
Lido, I put this out on some of the other message platforms...but if you haven’t seen it. IMO, they shouldn’t even be mentioned in the same breathe as AUPH or Lupus Nephritis at this point, and if ever it’s a long ways off.
“$KZR Neither of the 2 LN pts achieved Complete Renal Response as defined by $AUPH 's Ph2b & Ph3 Lupus Nephritis studies per the FDA (UPCR ≤ 0.5 mg/mg). The current Standard of Care alone will achieve a Partial Renal Response (UPCR reduction > = 50% from baseline) in 50% of pts.”
A couple of us had a long discussion about it with him last night. Much of it is irrelevant imo, “much ado about nothing” to quote a fellow long.
He’s working very hard to try to prove a point that really has nothing to do with Auph’s success. Enjoy the holiday week all!
Phase 3 proved everything it needed to and more for this to be a blockbuster.
Very sorry to hear this...just 68 years old. My thoughts are with you and his family and friends.
RIP Hotrodder!
I sure hope not, as it is a very important drug for both diseases right now.
You're certainly in my thoughts, and you got this brother!!
Hoping for a quick recovery my friend!
It's nice to see the uptick in communication from management, and everything seems to be on the up and up. Hope we see a new 52wk high soon!
This has been and will continue to be a long-term hold for me. Lots of great research in the works...hopefully someone with deep pockets comes along soon to assist in the efforts!
All we need is for Clarence to put out a release mentioning this protects against COVID19...j/k
Hey Floyd, I’m still here...full position, haven’t touched a share. Just been quietly watching...
You trying to tel me this is a reasonable response to a beat/meet ER with continued high rev growth and profitability?
It certainly has been pleasant in Auphland since the readout. I think the majority of the tutes were waiting to jump on-board if/when the Ph3 data came back successful. It was quite a huge catalyst that was just too risky for most. The data was better than we could've hopped for, and everyone knows it now. The smart $ that has been entering post data could easily get a double or triple on their investment this year.
You're not going to acknowledge the CEO exercising and acquiring shares today? Extremely bullish sign. You're always very quick to point out when they cash them in, even when they're pre-arranged.
Nobody like seeing unrealized gains go away, but it's temporary and we've been thru this many times. As always, I'm in for the long game...haven't touched a share...
It sounds like Dr. Shapiro and the good folks at Univ of Alberta have come up with a new strategy to attempt the islet cell transplant without AAGP affecting the surrounding anatomy...nice to see the trail starting back up again.
Still here, not going anywhere. I'm pretty confident they've already received several offers since PH2B...no they don't have to disclose it.
It's not even close...
https://twitter.com/TomSilver39/status/1207696155506688000?s=20
You guys use ST...I can’t believe you!! ;)
This is from Auph IR, shared with me by a fellow long...
"auph applied for both method of use and manufacturing patent. The patent for composition matters can not be extended beyond 2027. Once auph is allowed MOU patent, generics can not use auph trial protocol, so they need to run clinical trial from the beginning with different dosing schedule. 2 P3s will take good 8 to 10 years to finish line. All we need is MOU patent, not necessarily manufacturing patent."
I personally don't see any generics going thru this process, especially with how difficult it is to manufacture VOC. Management seems very confident when speaking about potential generic threats down the line, and I think their confidence is justified.
Jess, you and I along with a couple others have been pretty consistent in our belief the last couple years that we would see an even more compelling data readout than the PH2B trial. There were some considerations to seriously consider. Mostly for me, was more pts enrolled that had previous MMF use. I wasn't as worried by a more diversified group, but it was something to consider.
End of the day, we felt the Aurinia team knew what they were doing when they put together the trial protocol. It doesn't often play out exactly the way they draw it up with these trials, but it sure feels nice knowing we assumed correctly. The efficacy is strong, but the safety data blew everyone away. Only allowing sites that could provide reasonable SOC, was the game changer.
Cheers!
That's my opinion as well. I'm fine with the other scenarios too if that's the path it goes. The trend the last few years is to make companies bring the product to market and show adoption before a buyout, but the potential here is so large for such an unmet need that I can absolutely see a deal made before commercialization.
For the record, I'm fine with an offering if it's done right. I don't think it's something that should be feared. ARRY was a great story. Got in at $3 and road it to the BO at $48 this year. Offerings were done along the way, but it didn't stop us all from huge gains.
Jess, first and foremost the important thing right now is to get VOC it's first FDA approval. As we know Voclosporin is a CNI and analog of Cyclosporin. Cyclosporin and CNIs are used to treat a number of conditions. What we know about Voc is it's a bigger and badder CNI without the toxicity and dosing issues.
Voc will be priced in the range of $50k-$85k per yr/pt IMO. It can fetch this for LN because of the seriousness of the disease and the toll it takes on the healthcare system. They don't want to cannibalize their LN market. VOS is a different story, because it's an ophthalmic solution and can't be used off label at a lower price and taken orally.
VOC should be able to be used off-label if the docs are willing to put together a strong argument for it. But at $50-$85k a year, it doesn't make sense for just any indication that a CNI is used for.
BP should/will buy VOC out and can spend their endless R&D $ to further test and develop all the uses...and there are many.
All my opinion of course...
Honestly, if I was in control of those holding for my employer and there was a set amount of $ I had for that particular ticker...I would've cashed a small % during the run-up to buy protective puts for the remaining core. Risk management. You obviously are betting data is good, but have a backup plan in case another anomaly happens like the Ph2b death scenario.
Jess, did yesterday’s pop force BR to start bagging groceries at the local grocery store? That one had to hurt pretty bad for the shorts caught with their pants down.
But if they cash out they won't buy back in, so bad decision imo. Games might be played short term here, but this is going much higher. Depends on if their pride gets in the way of massive gains.
New filing out by ILJIN. They trimmed about 1mm shares, still holding about 13% of outstanding.
Nice thoughts on this Cool. I'm with you...
Ended up being 40% of the trial was black/hispanic, 15% % 25% respectively. Seemingly having no impact on results. Additional data at future conferences will shed more light, but it's a non-issue at this point imo.
Assuming they don't drop an offering AH tomorrow, this can definitely run for a few days just like last time.
Haven't sold a share. Holding out for much more than $15.
$15m of $40m