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Update from Madagascar Graphite JV Partner Cougar Metals
From their Quarterly Activities Report:
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20170501/pdf/43hx6x7y86r9c3.pdf
Back-of-the-envelope valuation for DMNKF
Friend of mine interested in purchasing shares asked me to come up with a valuation. Told him that there aren't enough data points/numbers to do it properly, so he asked for a "reasonable, educated guesstimate" instead. Maybe the following nonsense that I sent him will be useful to some of you.
Using a basket of 27 graphite companies' market caps, I got an average of CAD $ 27.22 M, and rounded down to US $ 20 M. I omitted MC's of companies like Magnis, Mason, Syrah, etc. to be as conservative as possible.
Using 120 M shares, as an estimate of the DNI OS 18 to 24 months from now (around the time that Vohitsara production should begin), 20 / 120 = US $ 0.167
US $ 15 M = two years of gross revenues for DNI from Vohitsara at 10,000 MTA, with an average basket price of $ 1,500/mt. (Rounded down from 12k MTA & $ 1,600+/mt used in the DNI presentation.)
So, at some point after the PP/dilution is completed, I expect DMNKF to eventually reach a range of $ 0.125 to 0.167 PPS, on Vohitsara alone. (DNI.CA = ~ C$ 0.165 to ~ 0.225)
May even have to wait until the PEA is published, around October, before there is enough recognition/revaluation - who the hell knows.
Also, the wholesale business generates ~ US $ 500k profit for every 2,000 MT shipped, so if GLK alone ramps up to sell another 8,000 MT wthin the next two years, that's an added $ 0.02/share to the above range.
Again, this is a conservative valuation, with all non-core assets (Alberta/SBH, Attawapiskat, gold royalty, et al.) at zero.
This range is subject to change on numerous factors: drilling results, private placement subscription %, new acquisition(s), possible uplistings, offtake agreements, sale of SBH, etc... way too many variables at this time.
Trying to be as realistic as I can.
Hey rrten,
Van Eck has announced June 17 as the date to begin their latest rebalancing, based on a final list due out by the end of May.
This article pulls in information from different sites, and includes two tables showing potential additions & deletions, with GORO on the latter, but towards the bottom.
http://www.pinnacledigest.com/tsx-venture-investing/gdxj-etf-rebalance-coming/
Also:
GDXJ additions: http://themacrotourist.com/images/2017/04/AddsApr1917.png
GDXJ deletions: http://themacrotourist.com/images/2017/04/DeletesApr1917.png
You can get the daily share numbers directly from the source:
https://www.vaneck.com/etf/equity/gdxj/holdings/
Since the announcement, there has obviously been a lot of front-running, so they have been forced to sell shares anyways.
If you know how many GORO they held before the announcement, you can do the math.
They say that the size of this rebalancing could be as much as $ 2.5 billion. That's easily a week's worth of volume of every company in the index!
Two other things to consider:
1.) Without Van Eck buying some of these juniors, and "juicing" them from time to time, who is going to step in after the rebalancing?
2.) They are also screwing with JNUG, and if enough traders decide that it is no longer worth the trouble, because of the swaps, futures, etc. involved, that will add to outflows in GDXJ.
I've been out of this sector for a while, but maybe after the carnage is over, I might look into one or two companies. Maybe something from C28's list, since I know he does his homework as thoroughly as I do. When I invest in a small company, I want to know the CEO's colonoscopy results! LOL!!
Enjoy your weekend,
Luke
C28, they are entitled to their opinions.
However...
CPTMatt wrote:
Hello, Traderfan,
I read your post in a more literal fashion - sorry.
My background is in science, mathematics, and engineering, so to my warped brain cells "another round of financing" = an additional round of financing than the one underway.
Cheers,
Luke
No, it is not "another round". It is the same financing that was announced on April 05.
From this morning's email by DNI CEO Dan Weir:
$DMNKF: Email update from CEO Dan Weir:
$DMNKF PR: Drilling Has Commenced/New Graphite Zones Discovered
http://www.newsfilecorp.com/release/26359/DNI-Metals-Drilling-has-Commenced-New-Graphite-Zones-Discovered
Email update from Cougar's Managing Director:
Graphite Market Expected to Reach $18B+, by 2022
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/graphite-market-expected-to-reach-18769-million-globally-by-2022---allied-market-research-2017-04-20-102033110
$DMNKF JV Partner Cougar Metals Madagascar Update/ASX Announcement
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01848779
Uptick Network: Featured Interview with CEO Dan Weir
https://upticknewswire.com/featured-interview-dan-weir-dni-metals-inc/
Yup. Here is a list of >250k CSE-only volumes for DNI:
Date Close Volume
2-Mar-17 0.08 1989600
13-Apr-17 0.06 1114050
13-Mar-17 0.07 713115
10-Apr-17 0.06 702625
16-Mar-17 0.07 512000
12-May-16 0.04 472400
17-Apr-17 0.06 471659
16-Dec-16 0.04 457040
19-Aug-16 0.04 433000
14-Mar-17 0.07 417011
6-Apr-17 0.06 365000
5-May-16 0.05 343000
12-Oct-16 0.04 342060
19-Apr-16 0.05 328935
17-Oct-16 0.04 323050
16-Feb-17 0.04 311755
25-May-16 0.05 306800
9-Jun-16 0.06 284000
7-Apr-17 0.05 275000
27-Mar-17 0.07 275000
24-Feb-17 0.06 273500
5-Apr-17 0.07 260000
Hey C28,
I didn't feel like spending a lot of time on this, so I went here:
https://www.google.com/finance/historical?cid=835343&startdate=Jan+01%2C+1980&enddate=Apr+17%2C+2017
and had Google make me a spreadsheet that went back to 1980, and read it in descending sort order.
Took me less than a minute! You can download it yourself from the link. This doesn't factor in CSE volume, of course. Just OTCBB.
Then again, they claim that today's volume was: 476,485
C'mon Google, get your sh!t together.
Later, bro!
$DMNKF 511,485 shares traded: Highest. Volume. Ever.
Another 199 consecutive days like this, and I can begin using my technical analysis charts on this f*<#&r!
Time Price Volume Market
11:12:20 0.0566 8 OTO
$DMNKF $DNI.C Vohitsara/Madagascar Graphite Project Update
Quick summary, from an email exchange with DNI's CEO:
Rig cleared Customs last week, and is en route. Should arrive tomorrow.
JV Partner Cougar's drilling crew arrived a few days ago.
Madagascar crew already organized.
Vohitsara/Madagascar Graphite Project Update
Quick summary, from an email exchange with DW:
Rig cleared Customs last week, and is en route. Should arrive tomorrow.
Cougar's drilling crew arrived a few days ago.
Madagascar crew already organized.
Good morning, nick2554,
Hello, gemstar66, and welcome to the board!
Wha... huh? [Hits Snooze Button] Zzzzzz...
LOL, C28!
Tesla's Kurt Kelty: "will source graphite [..] locally"
This morning's email from DNI
For those of you who did not receive it, here are a few key sentences:
DNI Metals Private Placement Video @ InvestmentPitch.com
http://www.investmentpitch.com/video/0_mh5srbnp/DNI-Metals-CSE-DNI-has-announced-a-Non-Brokered-Private-Placement
Also available at:
Under pressure...
Wouldn't surprise me to see this trade back to 0.035 CAD in the short-term, especially if Industrial Alliance shows up once a week to whack the bid, like they did yesterday, and for several weeks late last year.
I think DW would have liked to conduct this placement at 0.13, the half warrant per Unit is very telling to me. Timing was awful, but maybe necessary?
What we need now is a 100% subscription (or damn close to it) on this placement, and a PR on the acquisition of the lab, which will immediately add over 3 million in assets, plus a steady stream of revenue through rental income.
Between the lab, profits from the wholesale division, Vohitsara, Alberta/SBH, and the remaining cash from the placement, that's over 8 million for the 80 million OS, so eventually the share price should find its way back towards 0.10 CAD. I don't think a quasi-book value market cap is unreasonable. It may be ridiculous, but not unreasonable.
Have a great weekend!
CSE Form 9: Proposed Issuance Of Listed Securities
http://thecse.com/sites/default/files/CSE_Form_9_-_Notice_of_Issuance_of_Securities_April_5_2017.pdf
$DMNKF DNI Metals Inc. Announces C$2.5 Million Financing
http://www.newsfilecorp.com/release/26055/DNI-Metals-Announces-C2.5-Million-Financing
Benchmark Minerals: Graphite trends to watch (Li-Ion Batteries)
http://benchmarkminerals.com/downloads/Rawmaterialimpactoflithium%20ionbatterysurge-BenchmarkMineralIntelligence.pdf
Cougar Metals: Capital Raising of $1.15m Successfully Completed
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01844956
DNI Metals Inc. to form Mauritian Company
http://www.newsfilecorp.com/release/26000/Tax-Convention-Signed-Between-Canada-and-Madagascar-DNI-to-Form-Mauritian-Company-DNI-Saprolite-Graphite-Advantage
$DMNKF $DNI.C Toamasina/Vohitsara Drilling Program Information
Primary program is designed to test the 700 meters of strike between Trench 04 in the north, and Trench 06 in the south of the Ampositrabe-Vohilava Trend, or "Main Zone", across a width of 300 meters, using a 50m x 50m (25m line offset) collar pattern.
Plan shows a total of 133 holes, on 17 lines, covering 900 meters of strike. Estimated primary program of 105 holes at an average depth of 30m, for a total of 3,150 meters. Program will vary depending on results in the field.
For a visual summary, see Figure 11 on Page 33 of:
http://dnimetals.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/REPORT-NI43-101_Transaction_Vohitsara-v.160301_FINAL-1_SIGNED.pdf
Toamasina Port Development/Expansion Project
Good news for DNI's future plans in Madagascar:
https://www.jica.go.jp/english/news/press/2016/170324_01.html
Good morning rrten,
thank you for the kind words, I appreciate it.
Hey C28,
Hello RickeyBobby,
$DMNKF JV Partner Cougar Metals Raises $1.15 Million
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20170329/pdf/43h3y6863j4g0x.pdf
$DMNKF JV Partner Cougar Metals Raises $1.15 Million
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20170329/pdf/43h3y6863j4g0x.pdf