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Another possibility is gaap Net Income or Adjusted Net Income? One would logically think they made an apples to apples comparison yoy but knowing these guys it could be apples to oranges and could surprise biggly either way.
A couple comments:
1. One would think the $1.4 number is correct, but it might not be.
2. The stock still seems to be driven by stories and potential rather than the numbers.
3. If the 6 month number is 1.4 and there is no other good or bad news then we are stuck at $5 for three more months.
4. Why did they include the 1.4 number in todays filing? That was a choice. Wonder why?
You are right, stock price is the same today as in July, 2016. Absolutely zero shareholder wealth creation in over 6 years! Yes, the company market cap is 30% higher now due to the cap raise but that does not create wealth for shareholders.
I share your sentiment wholeheartedly, but just to play a bit of devils advocate I would argue the company is better today than then for a variety of reasons….higher revenue, more robust products, better owned assets, better balance sheet, perhaps better forward prospects. I also think it is a better stock to buy today than 6 years ago simply due to most valuation metrics being lower.
Friday will tell the tale for me. If they lay another egg then I will exit the stock over the coming months. Simply too many other good deep value stocks to buy right now.
Any chance VirTra announces Q2 on Friday and the stock sees no reaction? Rather remarkable that Q4 did nothing and Q1 did nothing for the stock.
I’ve been through lots of earnings announcements the last two weeks and most every one resulted in a major (some up, some down) move for the stock. Yet VTSI seems oblivious.
There are 3million more VTSI shares in the accounts of mostly new shareholders since the cap raise 17 months ago. Most of those likely near the current $5 price. Is everyone just content to hold? But not to buy more? Or to sell? I never thought daily volume would return to the numbers of 5 years ago.
VTSI needs a jump start! Hopefully Friday is it.
The reason VirTra is such an easy private equity target and easy buyout target is precisely because their main problem is EASY, SIMPLE to fix. Their revenue growth rate is simply too slow, that is the main problem. The fix is obvious and easy, put in place a sales leader/structure/sales org that sells to USA police departments. They could easily and predictably grow at 100% per year for the next 2 or 3 years and have a long term growth rate of 35% if they simply did this. It is that easy.
VirTra has never even tried to SELL systems and training to police departments. Their entire focus is fed gov and the sales they get to PDs are accidental. VirTra has no idea, no clue what it takes to SELL PRODUCT. They do not know how to hire a leader, do not know how to structure a sales org, have no idea how to even approach selling product to public municipalities.
Think about it this way....What would VirTra revenue look like in 3 years if Axon was running it? What would it look like if a guy like Musk took interest? Look at what the POWW CEO did in 5 years....$2mil sales to $300mil and will be over $1billion by the time the company has its 10th birthday. Or think about what the first thing you would do if you owned 100% of VirTra, you would bring on board a young aggressive seasoned CEO and Head of Sales. Done!, Simple! Easy! Obvious!
The enterprise value is roughly $45million.
We are over half finished with FY2022.
FY2022 revenue will likely be a bit over $30mil.
FY2023 likely to be $40mil.
Company is consistently profitable.
There is still potential here, story remains intact.
It remains an easy buyout target.
It remains attractive for a public to private then fix then IPO.
Any seasoned Management team could take this to $300mil revenue in less than 5 years.
If VirTra simply hired a great sales leader and let him perform, the company would explode.
The company is easily fixed, someone will do it and Ferris cannot prevent it.
I will reserve further judgement til next Friday but I feel pretty good about owning the stock.
Interesting. Then the only other explanation that makes sense to me is Ferris is planning to step aside or step back into a lessor role within the next year or two.
I still think Givens was promoted for something he did, not something he will do. No way Ferris gives up his CEO title without a legit justifiable reason. I think we get the answer on Aug 19th.
I also continue to believe that VirTra does not try very hard to sell systems and training to police depts. It is an easy and massive opportunity and VirTra goes at it in an uncommitted way.
The good news in Q1 was the recovery in gross margins to historic levels. That was the one bad thing in the recent Q4 report. The other good news in the Q1 report was the reduction in cash on hand as that suggests Q2 and Q3 should be pretty strong....or perhaps they simply picked out some really expensive draperies for the new offices.
It would be nice to know if most of the Q1 6.8mil revenue came late in the quarter as that would also help explain the cash on hand.
I'm wrong all the time on this stock, but it feels to me like Aug 19th is going to be very special in a good way. Buckle up.
This is still an excellent buy.
I appreciate the guidance as I need all the help I can get. Today is only Aug 5th so there are a full 10 days of trading before the 19th and that seems like an eternity with the two pending announcements. I guess at my core I have to believe that Givens was promoted for a reason, a real reason, something that he has already delivered. So, even if the two earnings reports both suck I am clinging to the hope that they announce some big Military thingy.
As an aside, I think my call buying only has about a 20% chance of working out profitably for me. Maybe even less cuz even if I am correct about Q1 and/or Q2, maybe the stock moves in a way that surprises me….in a bad way.
Yep, you are correct and I am very familiar with options….so I know I’m playing with poison.
Usually I sell covered calls or buy calls but typically only with liquid stuff. Normally I would never buy such short duration calls but I did so because of the extraordinary unusual situation facing Vtsi. Between now and Aug 19th end of day VirTra will have two more earnings reports and a conf call. That is only 11 trading days away and Vtsi is hovering near the strike. I am only risking $1050 at this point which is why Inequate it to gambling.
I made the bet because if Q1 on Aug11th is either a $10mil or 20cent quarter then the stock will be $6.5 immediately in my view and my $1050 is worth $4500. If that happens I close out the calls.
If Q1 on Aug 11th sucks then I keep the calls and pray for a Q2 miracle on Aug 19th.
For me it is worth the risk and provides me with $1050 of amusement. Actually less since it is in a taxable account and I could use some losses.
Since all the “activists” are either too smart or too stupid to act, I think I will contact the Ammo, Inc CEO and tell him to consider buying VirTra. He could drive VirTra revenue to $300mil in a heartbeat. They already have some of the same customers and are in sister industries.
Thankyou, I appreciate the reply…..and I sure hope you are wrong! I bought more shares today and 30 $5 call contracts for Aug 19th. Tiny bet but gives me my Las Vegas taste without having to travel there. Had to pay 35cents since no sellers below that number. Will try to buy more the next few days. Cheers. Bought a bottle of Gentleman Jack today, not bad but I’m still on a Crown Royal vanilla kick.
Sharpchicity…..In light of what VirTra reported and discussed yesterday what are your new estimates for Q1 and Q2? Thnx
I hadn’t even thought about buying options! I might just buy some 5 calls myself. 2 more reports between now and expiration, that is crazy, could be pretty fun. Good luck!
Thoughts on this?….Q1 revenue and EPS will be spectacular. At least that is my guess. If Q1 was only ok or even subpar there is no way they would report those numbers without a conf call. They must feel good enough about Aug 11 to know the cc can wait til Aug 19 with the Q2 report.
Ferris was so careful yesterday not to discuss specifics of Q1 and Q2 that it was shocking to me. And Givens came across as supremely confident and was recently given a crown on his head….gotta be a real reason other than he talks a good game.
I guess I feel like the stock remains a strong buy and is likely to go up biggly between Aug 12 and 19th. Anyone selling today is a fool.
I bought more JOB today. The fundamentals scream deep value. And December is only 4 months away. Should trade up in anticipation. Looking forward to the mid-Aug earnings report as well.
Greetings All. I think GEOS is a good stock buy right now sub-$5 and that it is also a timely stock buy meaning a buy today does not mean waiting forever. There are some pretty savvy investors who have entered the stock lately for all the right reasons. GEOS should trend back up to the 7 - 10 area on its own with no further news. If they do land a whale contract, then could go up much more.
Even as I’ve been incessantly bitching over the last few months I have often mentioned that I was continuing to buy the stock. I did so cuz I did not want to mislead anyone. One reason I whine so much is because I cling to the hope that Ferris and the BOD will learn something from my posts. It was also good today to hear Givens speak, kudos to Ferris for allowing him to do so.
Normally I would have puked all over the zero eps number for Q4, however, they explained it well and it made sense. They also made it clear that Q4 was an anomaly. So kudos for that bit of “forward” guidance. Easy to provide that sort of color when Q1 and Q2 are both already complete.
All that said, if the stock was $15 today, I would be terrified for tomorrow, but with it at $5 that is only a $35mil enterprise value, about equal to this years revenue. And since Ferris guided eps for 2022 to be much higher than 2021 I think the stock is a good buy and a timely buy.
And he CAN TALK!!! We have a (co) CEO capable of public speaking! Remarkable. Sounded to me that 2022 will be a banner year on both revenue and eps. Perhaps $35mil and 70cents. Stock will be fine.
24.4mil for all of 2021, Q4 was 8.6mil and breakeven
You can try, but they WILL NOT take your question unless you are with one of the analyst firms covering the stock, like Roth (yuck). Ferris is fearful to take questions from private investors which is rather sad since they are a tiny insignificant company that should simply be grateful someone (anyone) buys their stock and cares enough to listen.
By the way, another "tiny" Arizona company called Ammo, Inc. had sales of about $3million in 2017, this year their fiscal 2023 they will top $300mil. About half of it is organic and half is due to their purchase of gunbroker. In 5 years they will (easily) be north of $1billion. They are profitable with no debt and a great balance sheet and forward prospects. I don't bring this up to pump it (POWW) because the stock has been a dog since inception (though it is breaking out today which is why I thought of it), but I do bring it up to point out that one can grow quickly and profitably if the CEO has a brain and is smart/savvy.
As a stock and a company it should be even easier for VirTra to grow as compared to Ammo, Inc since VirTra has legislation and macro at their tail rather than in their face.
Givens has been with VirTra long enough for someone at that level to have several concrete examples of successes that would not have happened had he not been hired. And at that level, success means only one thing, massive new revenue.
Givens has done NOTHING extraordinary to date. We are all shareholders and follow closely. Can any of us name one thing Givens has done that is "special" or "extraordinary" or "above and beyond"? NO. And its because he has done nothing more than contribute as a warm body.
Will Givens lead a portion of today's conf call? He damn well better as he is the CEO, as is Ferris. Or are co-CEOs not created equal? Someone needs to ask about that as well since it is extremely unusual and rare.
And where is the date for the Q1 release?
And where is the date for the Q2 release?
Their prepared remarks today need to be excellent and onpoint. They've had 8 1/2 months to figure out what to say.
If it can power over 5.10 then a major breakout is underway. It has hit this level 2 or 3 times but can’t get through. Maybe today?
I love owning Nnbr and trading the swings. Nice percentage moves and a deep value stock.
Strong technical trading day today, could be nearing a huge upside breakout. Q2 report should be the catalyst.
Back in 2008 or 2009 when I first bought Vtsi shares my biggest fear was that a single great salesperson could sink/destroy the company because I didn’t believe VirTra could handle any sort of volume.
Flash forward 14 years (half a generation) to today and VirTra clearly does have the resources and infrastructure to support massive volume…..yet they are still afraid or too stupid to hire a great sales guy or sales leader.
Now my fear is that VirTras potential will never be realized because of a proven inability to judge, recognize, and hire top talent at all levels. They refuse to evaluate themselves objectively and their is no accountability.
They need a new BOD and a new CEO in order to fix what is wrong.
Your last question is the best one since many companies do that. Usually within a week after the quarter ends they issue a PR with “preliminary unaudited” numbers. Then a month or two later they file the Sec form.
If I could ask one question it would be this: How much money did your top performing regional sales manager earn in 2021? I know they wouldn’t answer but if they did you would understand why nothing gets sold. It would be a number of about $80,000 including commissions and incentives. As a result VirTra only gets 3rd tier talent.
2021 Q3 was $6.1mil and 12cents which stunk.
2021 Q1 and Q2 both sucked.
Too lazy to find Q4 of 2020 cuz VirTra website sucks.
Point is, all the year over year comps are easy.
So even though I’m down on Ferris, Givens and BOD, the stock should have a quick easy run to 10+.
This and that....
1. Its been so long since VirTra reported that I truly cannot even remember what we should be expecting in terms of revenue for Q4 or even this year 2022 for that matter. Maybe that's a good thing? Hard to disappoint when no expectations. That said, I do recall thinking that last year's Q3 or Q4 should be pushing $10mil so if $10mil doesn't happen in Q4 then maybe it did in Q1 or Q2. Best for the stock would be to see Q4 same as Q3, then have Q1 at $8mil and Q2 at $11mil. Then VTSI would be back over $10 pretty quick. Hell, I'm just happy today cuz BELFB is going up.
2. Much of Baltimore, MD looks about the same as the bombed out cities in the Ukraine except those Baltimore neighborhoods are more dangerous. I never prayed so hard as I did last Thursday afternoon driving with my wife and kids through certain areas of that town. I had fire power along, but two clips of 15each would not have been enough if we had gotten a flat tire or engine died. That said, the inner Harbor area of Baltimore was really really nice. Safe, tons of restaurants, nice boardwalks, etc.
3. By the way, no police cars or presence at all in the bad areas.
4. Here in Central WIS the big healthy employers in manufacturing, hvac, woods, food, etc. are handing out 20 - 30% raises like candy.
5. I think the recession is already over and the stock market will BOOM UPWARD like crazy for the next couple years. Higher gas/food prices are here to stay though.
6. VirTra should be making hay right now. Cities and Police Depts again are truly flush with cash. More money than they know what to do with. Absolute FACT. Just look around the country at how it is being spent, mostly stupid stuff. Too bad we don't have a CEO capable of capitalizing on the current state of the USA. Our co-CEO ohs will break their arms slapping each other on the back for getting all the way to $30mil this year. What a crime. It should be $300mil and any of us could hire the people to make it happen.
7. Fire Ferris, Fire Givens, Fire Burlend, Fire Mulcahy, Fire the BOD. This company needs a restart.
8. Where the fred are the activists? Were they again all talk and no action? I was lead to believe we would have seen the alternate slate of Directors by now.
9. Ya all need to buy SUP, it's going crazy higher over next 3 years.
Well, now we know! What an awesome Q2! Off the chart revenue, earnings, ebitda, backlog! This will keep marching up. Fair value is $45.
They will still not be in compliance since Q1 was due May 15th.
I just can't get past the fact they said nothing about Q1 or Q2. I also doubt if they announce Q4 on Aug 2nd. I guarantee there will not be any Q&A when they do hold a conf call.
Q1?…Q2?….These guys are idiots. When will Q1 and Q2 be announced? Q1 was due May 15, Q2 is due Aug 15. What a pathetic PR, at least give us the schedule for results.
Just lovely, every stock in the world is up huge today and VTSI is down. Thanks a lot Ferris-n-Givens and the do-nothing BOD.
The only reason I keep buying shares is I think they will fail in their attempt.
Bottom line for me is I hate that Givens and Ferris have apparently teamed up. I believe they will intentionally delist and then force the company private at below $3. Neither one can stand owning such a tiny part of the company.
You are absolutely right. That would have been an obvious thing to do, a smart thing to do, and a shareholder friendly thing to do.
So since they decided not to include such verbiage, the obvious answer is probably the correct one.