[fishhunter]

The steady trend up continues. At 80cents, the stock is still half price. Big share buyback will be announced in early January. Should take it up and over $1 in January. $1.50 by May 15th.

[fishhunter]

The run has begun! I keep right on buying, might pause near $1.20….but I think it goes up and over 2.5

[fishhunter]

I bought more JOB today. The fundamentals scream deep value. And December is only 4 months away. Should trade up in anticipation. Looking forward to the mid-Aug earnings report as well.

[The Night Stalker]

winner

[fishhunter]

And I keep on buying more and more.

[fishhunter]

I have now accumulated a large position, it is now free to rise. With no debt, an Ev/ebitda sub 2, it should have an easy run to $1.50+.

[RizK]

The investor webcast today was strong, this should be getting more attention. There's a little risk related to the opportunity for a PPP loan audit, but overall thins are looking strong.

[KeepOn]

Things should pick up here, in the new economy.

[gilead23]

Numbers are in. Looks like a shade under 2 cents normalized, something like .017 I think.

These numbers aren’t really unexpected, and maybe light if anything. Will be interesting to see what the reaction looks like. As well telegraphed as they were I’m not expecting much.

[gilead23]

JOB having another good day

It almost seems like this constant reminder about how great the quarter is without any details is building excitement.

Color me surprised, but I’m not complaining.

[nelson1234]

JOB welp, they sorta preannounced, but they did not get specific on the earnings numbers.

GEE Group Announces Full Forgiveness of $19.9 Million PPP Loans Zero Debt on Pro forma 2021 Year End Balance Sheet....

...its subsidiaries previously received PPP loan forgiveness from the SBA of approximately $3.4 million in aggregate principal and approximately $34,000 in aggregate accrued interest in fiscal year 2021, which was accounted for and/or disclosed in GEE Group's Quarterly Reports on Form 10Q filed with the SEC. On December 14, 2021, the Company and its subsidiaries received notification from PNC that the SBA granted forgiveness of all remaining PPP loans in the aggregate principal amount of approximately $16.5 million plus aggregate accrued interest of approximately $268,000. After giving effect to the aforementioned PPP loan forgiveness, the Company's pro forma balance sheet as of September 30, 2021 would have reflected zero debt. The financial impact of the most recent PPP loan forgiveness will be reflected in GEE Group's results for the first quarter ending December 31, 2021.

.....Dewan further commented, "Later this week, we expect to report outstanding financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year ended September 30, 2021. We are very strong financially with approximately $10 million in cash, no outstanding debt ... The hiring environment and demand for the Company's services remains strong in the current quarter and we expect to continue to deliver stellar financial results and create additional value for our shareholders."

[gilead23]

I think he should pre-announce Q2 2017 earnings next week.

[nelson1234]

what would be amazingly funny is if there was another roadshow presentation and dewak said the same shite about preannouncing b/c earnings are so great.....

[gilead23]

But it would be funnier if both were late. At this point I’m just hoping for a good laugh.

[nelson1234]

seems reasonable to me. But even if the pre announced they still could have an NT

[gilead23]

OK new game. What do you think the odds are at this point that earnings are actually late and we get an NT filed? I say it’s 50/50.

[gilead23]

Sorry to say I’ve dumped a good chunk of what I bought. I’m slightly ahead, and this pumping debacle sans follow through over the last couple weeks has me thinking we are still dealing with the same idiot who nearly bankrupted the company.

[gilead23]

I sent a similar note. I didn’t get a response. This silly little fiasco has me looking at this as something to trade and flip. He basically looks like a pumper CEO. Those types of people rarely run a quality business and build shareholder value over the long term.

I can’t think of a counter-example in fact.

[nelson1234]

Gil I sent that Derek Dewan pfucker an email expressing my disapointment as a GEE group shareholder that there has been no earnings preannouncement in spite of him stating at his November 17 presentation that they'd preannounce strong results in a week; and again, at the Sidoti conference reitterating the same strong results preannouncement talk just seven or eight days ago.

Not that it will do shite, but just for the pfuck of it.

Motherf&^%er.

[gilead23]

You’re right I thought the 1.6 was after interest, but it was sans interest. I need to start writing down more instead of just going on memory. So it would be 1.6 plus whatever ebitda is incremental probably about .02.

[littlefish]

They had $1.6 mill op income pre interest expense last Q IIRC. I had a little bit less than $600k EBITDA more for this Q (think I was going with around $400k IIRC) but even with $600k wouldn’t that be $2.2 mill op income, or 2 cents EPS?

You make a good point with wages and how that may cause job turnover. I would think taking temp jobs at times with flexibility might put more professional staffing people in the realm of, say, traveling nurses. They sometimes take months long assignments, then take months breaks, then rinse and repeat moving around. Some go hardcore, but many use it almost like a part time job if they can manage without benefits in between assignments.

All IMO only.

[gilead23]

My thought on 3 cents was more of a rounding up thing. Figured take op income from last quarter and add say 600k in ebitda and take off 500k in interest and you are there. That would mean they would be rounding that ebitda down. Highly unlikely, but possible I guess.

Personally I think work from home is a good fit for the recruiting side.

First it keeps those employees happy. A lot of people prefer at home work.

Second is the money saving side

Third this is the one group of employees you don’t have to worry about sandbagging working from home. They get paid by producing.

Inflation might come with more gross profit by maintaining gross margins as you suggest, but it’s gross margins on a dollar that’s worth less which is a wash. Also you wind up needing more working capital for the same level of business. Where I see inflation benefiting them is in job turnover. Wages at an existing job are sticky. They don’t give you a 10% raise when market rates go up due to inflation. I would expect with inflation and a labor shortage there will be lots of job hopping and the recruiting side has good margins.

[littlefish]

He says it just before the 5 minute mark in last week’s presentation.

I agree and expect some sequential continuation of good numbers with the slight weight of holiday season in upcoming Q although he said it already looks strong and we’re about 3/4 the way thru the Q (even more if include holiday impact).

I also agree the secular trends are well set up for them and glad they started in on some fully virtual offices to blend/augment the base. Less lease space and more supply side virtual employees and recruiters is a good thing if customers are up for it (more and more customers are, due to worker preferences). Wage inflation also looks to be sticky, which should be a net benefit going forward assuming spreads are consistent.

I could see them making about 3 cents this Q only if the $1.2 mill loan forgiveness is rolled in. Otherwise, I’ll stick with my 2 cent estimate. At least we’ll know fairly soon one way or other finally and the gross profit/adjusted EBITDA numbers he gave sounded pretty specific.


Now if only they’d listen to us little shareholders and get a buyback fired up along with some insider buying… I hope people bug them on those 2 points.

All IMO only.

[gilead23]

I’ll have to go back and listen to the exact verbiage, but yes that would leave him some wiggle room. I still think 2-3 cents is probably a decent bet for normalized numbers but probably towards the low end of that. To wind up higher they would have to be understating the annual ebitda and rounding down. That just doesn’t seem in character.

The improved interest expense should help the bottom line and they are suggesting some sequential ebitda improvement so I am working on the assumption of improved sequential numbers on a normalized basis.

The exact top line is probably less important than the bottom line anyway. I still see it as more of a 3-6 month trade although the track record was there with acustaff. Their industry tailwinds here should be huge which I really like.

[littlefish]

He said they’d be “closer to $150 million” not that they would post $150 mill. The $52 Mill GP sounded more precise and accurate. So did the $12 mill adjusted EBITDA (both those numbers sounded more certain to me).

I still want some decent pressure on them for a buyback and insider buying at these levels. I haven’t tried contacting any of the larger holders yet and was going to see what happens when they finally get numbers out first.
IMO only.

[gilead23]

As far as the loan I’m assuming that wouldn’t factor into revenues ebitda or margins. I was figuring a clean .02 to .03 if what he said yesterday is accurate. I really would have liked to hear his take on that acquisition.

I can see pretty clearly why it was a mistake. I wonder if he can.

[gilead23]

It would be crazy though to say they are going to report 150 million in revenue and then not do it though wouldn’t it? I mean the quarter has been over for 2 months. Pumpish or not it would take some real balls to not at least hit a number you can round up to that.

The 52 million in gross profit was also awfully specific to not hit it.

[littlefish]

One would hope the management team would see the obvious benefits to a share buyback and insiders being pushed to buy shares down here before doing anything else externally structural (like acquisition) to the company.

They do have about 1 cent added to upcoming numbers from the PPP loan they had forgiven (I think $1.3 mill off top of head) if I recall correctly but still think your revs estimate may be a bit high. The CEO does tend to overstate it seems. How can he be 10/10 bullish yet fail to buy shares at 52 week lows, for example.

I’m getting frustrated with the management team though at this point if they don’t get a buyback started and have some insiders start buying. Having the questions screened out by the Sidoti guy didn’t help.

All my opinion only, short on time.

[gilead23]

Implied numbers from Sidoto conference

On yesterday's investor conference they suggested annual revenue and gross profit would be 150 million and 52 million respectively

That implies Q4 revenue of 43 million a sequential increase from 38 million in Q3 and gross profit of somewhere around 15 million versus 13.8 million last quarter.

There may be some more SG&A in there for Q4, but they should also lose some interest expense which would hopefully balance that out.

I think that puts them somewhere between 2 and 3 cents EPS for Q4. It wouldn’t surprise me if they got to .0251 and rounded up to .03 in an earnings announcement.

We will see, but he continues to be over the top bullish in investor presentations.

[gilead23]

Don’t really care if there is a goodwill write off or something, but being super anxious to release early with still no info while the stock drops on big blocks smells.

I jumped in on the terrific environment for hiring, improving numbers, and bullishness on the last investor presentation.

But perhaps I was wrong and this is the same clown car management team that grossly overpaid for an acquisition and almost bankrupted the company.

The market seems to think so, and it’s making me second guess myself.

[norweger1979]

Sure not reassuring from mgmt and clearly not building confidence!
It was liquidation galore 40k blocks up to 100k+ just plain BID hits. Feels like some 1 time item in PR coming ugh

[gilead23]

And still no earnings release as promised

[norweger1979]

1st trading hr = 1.4mil + volume

[gilead23]

It’s so dumb. Just keeping quiet would have been fine, but if you put it out there you need to follow through.

The results are what they are whether they released last week or next, but I think management has a credibility gap they haven’t fully repaired going back to the SNI acquisition, and culminating with the dilution event.

This is a minor matter, but it doesn’t help rebuild that.

[littlefish]

Looks like they dogged it. With the investor call next week, I really would think they’d have it out by then to chat up with potential attendees.

I’m looking at this as a 6-12 month project, not a news event run, but would feel better short term with gaining back some of the lost value this week. They’ll need to work on building investor confidence more moving forward but have time. Hopefully the selling is about done. Seems like selling volume has lightened a bit lately.

All IMO.

[gilead23]

I figured they might do it this week to avoid the holiday. Tough week to release earnings as it turns out.

[littlefish]

I’ve definitely missed some hours of sleep the last week getting up early thinking they may drop.

[gilead23]

Really bad look that the numbers aren’t out yet

Pro tip: don’t tell people something will be released in a given time frame and then not do it.

[norweger1979]

Interesting industry and one that I was going to stay out forever after RSFF (resolve staffing) went under with hyper growth but lacking financial strength and eventually collapsed.
But like Buffett went back into airline industry after digging through JOB and hearing/reading tons of evidence about worker shortage and employee retention and starting wages advertised $20+ for jobs that used to be college kids pick ups for play money.

This can be a very successful turnaround /growth play and I put chips down for the ride BUT any excessive M&A action or talk about takeover and synergistic benefits and I’m OUT! This company needs TLC on attention to in-house efficiency

Anyway, picked up boatload today and you are certainly right about a possible big tax loss seller BUT that pendulum will swing back in the other direction again too ;)

[littlefish]

Been a long time, hope all is well with you and your loved ones. I think this will be a good one once people see a couple more quarters out of them. People are still afraid of the old warts they have so it will take more concrete evidence for them to finally catch on I guess.

Good luck, all IMO only.

[littlefish]

I was modeling that number I think after reading KFRC earnings report IIRC but I likely should bump it up due to the presentation given by CEO. I think KFRC did have sequential gains in either IT or F&A IIRC but am a bit constrained on time right now to check. I do remember other pro staffing companies’ Mngmnt sounding quite bullish for next year and going out a ways.

I think there is a lot of focus on this Q4 report where I personally think the CEO’s bullish stance is more at looking forward a ways but Q4 should be good too to start their turnaround (that started last Q). RHI mngmnt said they saw a 3-5 year potential growth runway, ASGN mentioned strength starting to get going and looked to last. I think KFRC also mentioned momentum building. All 3 of them broke to new highs while JOB has been hitting new lows. Those other 3 I think are even hitting all time highs even though that movement has been more over outlook than earnings (earnings beats for them but not crazy high beats).

All IMO only.

[gilead23]

Just curious on this

"I personally think revs will be $38-$40 mill this Q based on what other companies are reporting."


Are you seeing much flatness in reveues? I've seen some pretty good sequential numbers in September from a number of staffing companies

RGP,STAF,MHH,RHI,BGSF etc

Exceptions like KELYA and AHEXY, but mostly I'm seeing pretty good sequential numbers. I would rather think 40-42 on comps, but I do tend to get optimistic.

[gilead23]

Speculation here but my bet is they decided to wait until Monday thinking nobody is going to read a release Tuesday or Wednesday of Thanksgiving week.

If they really do have exciting news to report next week is better anyway. Hope Thanksgiving is good for you regardless.

I YOLO'd some at these prices too. I think job switching is going to be a trend for some time which will benefit them. I'm surprised to see it pummeled today, but is what it is. I apparently should have waited a little longer.

[norweger1979]

Thank you for your shared DD and gileads too. Bought good size bags yesterday & just now during drop…
Have a nice holiday, hopefully with some recovery in share price today first ??

[littlefish]

Trust me I’ve been babysitting this and it isn’t a bunch of hack sellers. I’m sure some gave up on the new low but there is a big seller that has been pushing it down for awhile now.

I’m still buying more today. YOLO I guess. Gonna be a tough holiday around the house unless we get good. news today or tomorrow. About time for Dr appt. have a good one.

[gilead23]

My thought was you might see sequential improvements to put them north of 40 million. Hard to believe he is acting this bullish over flattish sequential revenue. It's kind of credibility destroying TBH. I was hoping for maybe 42 but that is a guess. I think his comments were irresponsible if there isn't at least some sequential improvement.

As far as movement I think what you are probably seeing today is people who bought anticipating a big PR today who didn't get it.

Overall I see this as an improving numbers story driven by industry growth, and a favorable economic backdrop, but also a quick hit on earnings numbers. If they can scratch out a couple cents a share that alone should push it up nicely.

[littlefish]

Very much interpretation on my part but that was with lots of hours of going between annuals, Qs, etc… The size and scale of company just wasn’t there.

I’m getting kilt near term on this, getting an ulcer as it is my biggest position easilyr :). But just about all the bigs in the professional staffing space have been running to new highs while JOB has completely cleaned up their balance sheet and showing it’s best health since Dewan came on in 2015 and is hitting new lows inexplicably (well large tax loss seller without a big buyer may be the reason). The bigs are running higher off outlook more than earnings, although their earnings have been decent (say KFRC, RHI, ASGN for example). I listened to all of their calls and/or read them after the fact on seeking alpha.

I personally think revs will be $38-$40 mill this Q based on what other companies are reporting. But again I see this as a growth story moving forward, not a play the hype from CEO comments. The CEO said they’re running about at 2019 levels which was roughly $38 mill Qs. The comment about rivaling 2019 or other years leaves too much soft wiggle room for me to extrapolate a $45 mill Q. I don’t think he is misspeaking but think people are hearing what they want to hear from a very bullish CEO. I think the 10/10 bullishness comment could be more accurate from our perspective though looking forward. I think he is looking out going forward more than just the one Q which should be strong per his comments (again though I’m going with $38-$40 mill simply because he mentioned running at 2019 levels.

This big seller has broken my spirits but I’m certainly not backing away given what Ii think is substantial upside.

All IMO only. Good luck.