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So Many Risks To ConsiderThe Biggest Market Risk For The Rest Of 2016
Beyond fundamentals, the U.S. Presidential election looms as a short-term downside risk in the coming weeks and potentially beyond depending on the outcome. Markets will likely feel reassured that an uncertainty has been removed come November 8 regardless of the outcome.
The Greatest Risk For The Rest Of 2016 is the following: It is the constitutional referendum vote in Italy set for Sunday, December 4. The outcome has the very real potential to turn what was an isolated incident in the United Kingdom leaving the European Union suddenly into a trend.
Bought some at 2.215 on the 3rd, sold it on the 11th at 2.785. Might pick some up at close to $2 again. Had I gone long on March 4th, during the 'bone head' short covering rally, I would still be hurting.
Yep, 3D blew all their cash buying up the 'competition'. Now they can not buy HP.
Building the Internet of Things, October 2016
Building the IOT, October 2016
Upcoming Events & Speaking
IoT Korea Exhibition
Seoul, South Korea, Oct 12 - Oct 14
Itron Utility Week
Orlando, FL, Oct 14 - Oct 21
IACP
San Diego, CA, Oct 15 - Oct 18
Qualcomm 4G/5G Summit
Hong Kong, Oct 17 - Oct 19
Futurecom 2016
Sao Paulo, Brazil, Oct 17 - Oct 20
MATELEC Spain
Madrid, Spain, OCt 25 - Oct 28
Good overview of the problem: COMPETITION.
Whole Foods Market, (WFM)
28.87 -0.46 (-1.57%)
Dht Holdings, Inc. (DHT)
4.38 ? -0.03 (-0.68%)
Volume: 892,917 @ 12:29:02 PM ET
Bid Ask Day's Range
- - 4.36 - 4.47
Just when you got it figured out, it does the opposite!
They are saying that SDRL can be bought now, with target of $60.
Oil is up, SDRL is down.
Oil higher, fees higher. The most critical thing is bow many tankers are there.
Did SDRL break-out?
Did SDRL break-out?
Volume is not compelling, however!
I missed the buy opportunity back when advised, to, at 7'ish.
I am thinking it may be time now, at 2.10.
That is what I thought, too, when I got out in the mid 20s on a short squeeze a few years ago.
Did you feel the small volume and straight up today just had to be short covering? I did not believe your investment philosophy would allow you to sell a for sure winner, for any reason.
Seadrill - Restructuring Deal Announcement Now Expected In Early December
Seadrill - Restructuring Deal Announcement Now Expected In Early December
Summary
Providing different scenarios for John Fredriksen's potential course of action.
Substantial dilution for existing shareholders basically a given.
Bankruptcy proceedings might be needed to overcome dissenting bondholders.
Expect North Atlantic Drilling to be folded back into Seadrill.
Investors should remain on the sidelines until Seadrill has made its plans public.
I recall looking at AAPL at $2 in the late 1990s...
Double up, buy these same calls:
optionMONSTER's monitoring system detected the purchase of 6,000 2017 January 5 calls followed buying in the same call strike on Friday.
Building the Internet of Things - September 2016Building the Internet of Things - September 2016
The Doggy needs a new pair of shoes!
Seadrill Ltd. - 10-20% Downside?
Summary
Seadrill's shares have cratered ~39 percent in 2016.
Concerns over the company's debt load and a distressed offshore market have hurt investor sentiment.
Recent IEA oil market report has also hurt the energy sector.
How low can SDRL go?
"Given the information available to us at this point, I see 10-20% further correction potential for Seadrill's shares." $1.55, I like it.
One can learn if they aren't stuck in their position.
John Fredriksen/Net worth
8.9 billion USD
2016
https://www.google.com/#q=john+fredriksen+net+worth
Now if he put $510 million into a company that is going out of business, and his net worth falls by nearly a $BILLION do you think he might have done it for his own interest and not the shareholders, mmmm?
I think you will find that the guys with the money are not easily swayed to give it away. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Fredriksen
The Big Dog thinks $510 million from a man worth US$9.7 billion (August 2015) means when you buy in during a short covering rally at $7, he is going to bail you out.
So clear it was time to sell
At a buck fifty, maybe time to buy.
If you can last out through the 'short run'
Followers: 175 Why are we still here? I am off to search for the Doc in Lake Tahoe, soon. I will spend a week this time looking.
Some help from maybe a bail bondsmen, seasoned investors, or a washed up attorney may be useful.
Is this our Doc? Lots of You Tube time
If the dream is still alive, maybe we can bring our crew back together? https://www.google.com/#q=Dr.+Alan+Phan
The Dog wants a bone.
Avoid Seadrill For Now
Summary
Seadrill watched its stock price drop by more than 95% from the start of the oil crash until its lows in February 2016. (If one bought in during the sucker rally earlier in the year, well one kicked their own butt, huh?)
Seadrill has a large young fleet which should be key for getting good contracts. However, the company is also struggling under more than $10 billion in debt.
The company's September 2017 debt maturity will likely require issuing a significant amount of equity. This equity dilution will hurt present investors.
Sometimes it takes a while to bring results!
Kopin's Whisper Chip: Positioned To Enable Flawless Voice User Interfaces For Millions Of Users Globally
This analyst thinks they will dominate:
Derrick Zierler
J Mintzmyer: CPLP is likely to see a 2x+ dividend growth for FY17/FY16.
I also expect 50-100% stock price increase by next summer.
Is A Seadrill Bankruptcy Imminent?
Is A Seadrill Bankruptcy Imminent?
"I've seen Seadrill's (NYSE:SDRL) chart a thousand times. At an initial glance, the word "sell" comes to mind."
SDRL has to survive until then, too.
Kinder Morgan: 2 Reasons To Stay Long
Kinder Morgan: 2 Reasons To Stay Long
Summary
Kinder Morgan is taking aggressive asset sale moves in order to lower its debt, while it is entering into JVs to share development costs, which is a smart move.
Driven by asset sales and other debt-reduction moves, Kinder Morgan’s net debt-to-adjusted EBITDA is expected at 5.3 times this year, down considerably from its earlier guidance of 5.5 times.
Kinder Morgan is increasingly focusing on projects with higher margins, such as the South Mainline expansion that will lower capital costs by $250 million and increase production simultaneously.
Driven by its capital and debt reductions, Kinder Morgan expects its distributable cash flow to exceed its capital expenditure for 2016, after the payment of dividends.
Conclusion
Therefore, in my view, Seadrill isn't a safe investment in the near term. Its revenue and EBITDA are expected to decline significantly this year. Moreover, the company is highly leveraged as discussed above, while its contract backlog is also declining, reflecting a weak revenue outlook. Hence, until and unless an end-market recovery take place, investors should be wary of buying Seadrill shares.
Is There No Hope For Seadrill?
If you bought on the sucker rally, and you are sure you know it ALL, what can I say?
Where do you see short interest rising? Short % Increase / Decrease -0.95%
If short interest is rising, there still must be a reason for them to cover. I see nothing right now that will cause them to do this.
What am I missing?
When oil is not moving that is very bad for tankers. All they can be used for is storage. Which I am guessing commands less daily fees. What we need is for the glut of oil to disappear. The aging boomers, do not buy oil, do not drive, do not consume as much. That is a recession, by itself. Take away a little more and that is a depression.
On top of that there are a lot of tankers available. DHT has positioned itself well to last into 2017, 2018 when I see J Mintzmyer is feeling things might turn around.
Read what he says: J Mintzmyer
mulligan43, if DHT can pay a dividend it will be much easier to wait things out.
Why Kinder Morgan's Future Outlook May Be About To Take A Beating
Why Kinder Morgan's Future Outlook May Be About To Take A Beating
Summary
Since hitting their low point on February 11th, Kinder Morgan shares have stormed higher an impressive 57%.
While this mega-rally is partially justified by a partial recovery in energy prices, as well as management's impressive recent acceleration of its turnaround plan, a major threat remains.
Learn why ongoing political opposition to Kinder's planned expansion of its largest project: the Trans Mountain Pipeline, could spell the death of Kinder's long-term investment thesis.
Which is why only high-risk friendly deep value investors should consider this fallen pipeline blue chip.
Seadrill: More Troubles Ahead?
Seadrill: More Troubles Ahead?
Summary
Stock price is not moving in tandem with the oil price anymore.
Operating expenses can be reduced further but major decline in expenses is coming from the rig operating expenses.
Concerns about debt maturing in 2017 are valid and explains negativity about the stock to some extent.
Any major equity issue will seriously affect the investor confidence in the management.
Nah, I have no position. I just knew when it shot up like that, it was short covering.
As well at that positive SA, there are others authors who take and equally bearish position.
If it gets under a buck, it might be worth gambling on.
Several on SA say they will short it above $2. Those are the ones who are forced to cover when it shoots up in price, for whatever reason.
This company is VERY good with the PR to raise the share price. True value is another matter.
J Mintzmyer: Nordic American Tankers Is Substantially Overpriced
Nordic American Tankers Is Substantially Overpriced
Now:-?A buy under $3.50
Summary
Seadrill Partners LLC released its 2Q'16 results on August 25, 2016. Total operating revenues were $418.5 million in 2Q'16 down 5.7% quarter over quarter.
SDLP and SDRL will have to wrap a few common facilities in the refinancing and recapitalization plans SDRL is negotiating, right now.
I recommend SDLP as a cautious buy on any weakness under $3.50.
For your DD
NAT DD