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sentiment stocks
A play by play would be interesting to analyze.
Pip611,
Shorts committing to long or just positioning some to long is possible. Don't forget that a premium is often willingly paid for flexibility when guaranteed profits from binary type news is expected. Then again we must factor in the next few days or so for the bigger picture to determine the strength of conviction about financing news vs other possible positive news first.
Pip611,
A Wolfpack would have preferred a price below $.62 methinks.
Laser777,
That is the typical MO for this type of stock that has been pressed down for accumulation and short covering to occur right before a dramatic price rise. Institutions have been accumulating and now the rebalancing has allowed those who have been accumulating and those who have covered to play into each other's hands. Institutions will still have these shares along with the shares recently given back by retail traders. This now allows for strong price movement in either direction created by those who have the money or those who have the shares depending on what news comes first. Best wishes.
TiltMyBrain,
Did shorts make a major move because they saw strong resistance to the down side and potential for some sort of good news? Was this the only point in time for a clean exit for some? The buy to cover makes sense but how do you put in the bid for this many shares early enough to get your after hours order filled without tipping off the rest of the market that this is the plan and cause the price to rise significantly in anticipation or was the order in and this tipped off the shorts? Anyone know how this jockeying during rebalancing typically takes place?
flipper44,
This vote now puts Europe in position to break apart to the point where those that remain will be ready to rally around a single man as leader in the not too distant future and Russia to act more brazenly in the Middle East in the mean time. Care to guess where I read this? Madonna's halftime performance at the 2012 Super Bowl which was an symbolic ushering in of the New Roman Era and, later that year, the closing ceremony at the 2012 Olympics, where every nation symbolically bowed down to the rising red phoenix, were our clues from the dark side. The dark side wants us all to be scared of our own shadows as if they are in control. They are just deceivers being deceived themselves. NWBO is still well positioned with a presence in Great Britain, Germany and USA. Best wishes.
ClayTrader,
You appear to be spot on here. You picked $.62 as the battle ground and sure enough, market makers poured in their buys @$.57 on up to where it went over $.62. Since then the price has stabilized above $.62 so we see if there will be a later challenge at the bell or on Monday. This action points to someone having already made up their mind about the future direction of the price because they want to accumulate in a big way. Has someone in big pharma broken ranks? Best wishes.
Sojourner55,
If you were looking for information what weak links would you try to engage. Might someone know who sends regulatory notifications out? Or perhaps someone knows an investigator is doing some finishing touches on a special project. Perhaps someone knows an inspector or 2. Plenty of guesses. Best wishes.
flipper44,
I would think that the share count up to the required vote limit of 20% would be allowed and the rest converted to cash or cash and restricted warrants which could be used to convert to an equivalent number of shares at a later date, perhaps after an official vote. Just a guess at a possible adjudicated agreement.
longfellow95,
The "gentleman from Roche" that Linda referred to a while back in one of her presentations would be a hint at the nod you refer to. Roche is also heavily over weighted in oncology and would have the most to lose if left out of the new oncology products picture. They need to be part of this type of breakthrough combination technology and their anti PDL-1 is seen as having very good potential, perhaps even best in class.
Turtle65,
You still have those celebration plans in the closet somewhere? You know if this turns good like longs all hope you are going to be famous right? Might even get mentioned in a movie. Everybody knows Turtle65 so make sure you pick a good place out to bury the hatchet. I suggest using a Redwing for the ceremony. Made in the USA. Best wishes.
TC Trader,
The key statistics on the Yahoo site is outdated but relatively close to your numbers. They show 30% insider shares held and 43% institutions which leaves 27% in retail hands. I believe the newer numbers will show a higher percentage of institutional ownership by 3-4% but this is just a gut feeling. How current are the numbers you see?
Thanks for keeping us updated from your perspective which is greatly appreciated. Best wishes.
flipper44,
Maybe you are hitting a little too close to home or perhaps someone heard a whisper but today's action is definately recording an eye twitch before the rebalancing is finished. Best wishes.
AVII77,
Thanks for laying ownership all out straight. I had not read your post before responding earlier. Best wishes.
flipper44,
Until those warrants are exercised by NWBO, and that takes some cash to do, retail ownership is important as it can go either for or against Linda's or others strategies.
austinmediainc,
If Mr. Woodford is an insider or signed an NDA, then might it also imply that NWBO insiders are prohibited from buying stock until the NDA info is shared publicly? The company has the right to obtain funding but insiders are generally restricted as to when they can buy and sell. Linda has some options to finance by way of Cognate but those options would have restrictions due to her relationship with both companies. I have no idea how those details would be worked out if that was the route chosen. Best wishes.
vator,
The cards have been dealt. The hands have been played. Some have folded but the final bets have not been placed and the cards aren't all on the table yet. Best wishes.
Turtle65,
Mr. Woodford did buy at the higher levels and both you and kabunushi are pointing to the probable reason NWBO did not do a major financing with another party when the price was near it's high. Creating a sense of financial security and perhaps dependency before pulling the plug on financing is another way to attempt to gain control of a company. A ramp up of expenditures through manufacturing build out and hiring quickly escalates cash burn rate. Then when the cash is cut off and people need to be paid the amount of time needed to cause bankruptcy is reduced if delays continue and favorable financing is unavailable. The "death spiral" is quick. By iclight's own admission Cognate should have some cash on hand right? Will Linda go "all in? Stay tuned. LOL.
maverick1,
Well stated and I fully agree. NWBO is doing its part to bring change even though many shareholders have been put in a tough spot from a lack of clarity about the situation which may be due to a request from authorities. Best wishes.
hope4patients,
That would be very interesting. Mr. Trump with small and microcap bios vs Mr. Biden and big pharma. I would love to see the "This is what's wrong with politics holding back innovation in America" challenge. If Mr. Trump had a big winner before the election imagine the impact. Personally, I wish a more self disciplined and less self centered person would do this because Mr. Trump does not appear to view the presidency as the highest position of national service to the One who has authority over all. Then again our country has changed and does not value this quality in a leader as much anymore.
The 2 greatest symbols of U.S. economic power were brought down and the symbol of our national defense was damaged almost 15 years ago. Another symbol was protected by the selfless courage of the passengers on another plane led by a man of faith and devotion to the defense of freedom. If he could do his part then we can do ours. "Let's roll."
The way I see the current situation one of at least 3 possibilities will occur. The first is that a decision might come soon from regulators with regard to the separate pseudo arm and or entire group. The second option is that Linda needs to buy more time but is being watched carefully so decides to essentially go all in with her stake in Cognate as collateral. This might be enough to get to the end of the main trial if data looks good. The third option, which is the one that the current share price has been and is factoring in is massive dilution. Many supposedly believe they know the trial is a failure and what Linda will do. Is there a surprise in store for them or not? Be prepared.
vmlg17,
Any validation gives hope that this therapy and Direct will be utilized beyond a subset of patients since mesenchymal subtype is found at some point in the vast majority of cancers. The valuation banter is just another way to create doubt about the true implications of this therapy. Potential use of this basic format in regenerative medicine is also in the mix and has been since the early understanding of the MO of DCs in general and Direct specifically began to come to light.
The SAB is going to be looking at how to best move forward with the entire underlying potential of the basic modality of this treatment. The fact that Linda's other companies focus on stem cell research and have a planned presence at Sawston points to some pretty important crossover implications that is related to the potential success of the DCVax platform.
Pyrrhonian actually led me to do research in regenerative medicine with regard to heart muscle repair in ischemic (low oxygen) regions when he was talking about the potential of another company's product. His comments were in regard to damage repair mechanisms that can be deployed after a heart attack and this crisscrossed with notes I had taken earlier related to NWBO. When I researched this apparent crossover application I realized that NWBO is on to something way bigger than almost anyone can possibly fathom.
momentum2play,
You ask how could this trial still be blinded with all that has happened to other companies with regard to illegal access to data. The answer might be as simple as no one knows how to interpret the data yet, blinded or otherwise. We know that Dr. Linda Liau indicated that all patients appeared to be living longer than expected and that eventing was slower than expected for their high end (she mentioned 24 months) and much slower than the original expectations from the protocol. When the resizing was done an astute commentor, I don't remember who, said that one of the main reasons a trial might be resized is for unexpectedly slow eventing. The interpretation of this slow eventing, ascribing benefit from treatment vs additional options with regard to OS and perhaps different PFS between "early" and "late" treatment (in the trial before and after automation), not the raw data itself, is what I believe may be keeping this trial blinded and the company needing more money to finish the trial than originally and subsequently planned for. The extended need for money has been the pile driver on the price. This is a known factor in a place where enigma abounds. Best wishes.
flipper44,
Whether or not negotiations may be delayed, NWBO seems well positioned in Europe with both mainland Europe through Germany and Great Britain. Delays seem more related to data updates than any possible EU split that would not fully occur for at least 2 years after the vote. FDA may try to accommodate EU timelines to some extent but an ethical issue could always supercede that so in my view I don't see the possible split as an immediate issue. Governments and their agencies are also generally reactive and seldom proactive unless they have trouble getting the votes they want for a specific agenda.
exwannabe,
While what you posted is true, there was a doctor at the helm who seemed to have misinterpreted the Swiss response. No big sanctions by the SEC or fall out wit FDA. Linda Powers (a lawyer) took over after both of those incidents. Context helps remove bias right?
Chris,
I wish you the best on your effort and want to thank you for taking a strong interest here. I hope your article is well received because of informative content and an obvious balanced approach to the risk/reward nature of NWBO's current situation. I would really love to see Seeking Alpha being accused of censoring authors that are not taking balanced approaches to their articles. That might help stop articles like what Phase 5 put out from gaining traction.
TiltMyBrain,
I don't base my judgments on the clinical trials site because it is not always well cared for. Sometimes the available evidence can help determine better timelines. We know manufacturing expansion activity has been going on. We know approvals for manufacturing are needed. We know manufacturing changes appear to have been demanded by Germany. We know changes need to be approved. We know NWBO has been submitting data to regulators on what appears to be an ongoing basis. We know what sentiment stocks has suggested about trial progress could be possible and we know eventing for PFS is possibly slow and OS is unexpectedly slow based on Dr. Linda Liau's comments. We know that there is strong evidence that mesenchymal GBM patients respond to DC treatment and that UCLA can determine who stands to benefit most from treatment. We know the separate pseudo arm has more mature data than that from just the 2015 patients in the main trial. Add this all up and something has to give this year. Throw in the fact that Germany is now well beyond the "normal" time frame for their HE negotiation process and a manufacturing change makes sense as does late eventing. Put this together with the current ongoing institutional accumulation and Mr. Woodford's cash set aside for undervalued biotech and the signals are in place for the accumulation typical for this type of situation. This does not mean the very near term immediate cash need will be addressed after any favorable news which might be announced which is why institutional accumulation is usually done over a critical period of time. Best wishes.
flipper44,
NWBO can not promote or even appear to promote their product and announcing huge manufacturing build out and full automation may "appear" to be promoting approval as a foregone conclusion. Getting their news out really is up to us because their hands are tied by this invisible rope. How would all those "investors" involved in lawsuits against the company try to spin it? How might some "big pharma cozy" regulators react to this "self promotion"? I think we already know the answer to this.
Maverick 1,
Nice job. Good to see someone has their eyes on the manufacturing capacity and Great Britain's national priority designation barometer. Best wishes.
exwannabe,
For me it's not so much that I think the trial must end but rather that if the pseudos or mesenchymal patients are doing so well that there can be no denial then a resolution with regard to them must be reached and relatively soon ethically speaking. NWBO has learned a great deal about their treatment during the course of this trial and the flexibility built in by trial design is a major reason for this. Linda has said NWBO planned for this trial to go to the very end of schedule and shown she is in no hurry to get there. This has been used against her to great effect but as I see it she does not want to give regulators any reason for concern about this trial other than for positive ethical reasons due to benefit within a subgroup population. The parallel trials seem to make this abundantly clear. Best wishes.
sentiment stocks,
I agree with both of you. There were 7 personality types Disney chose for their dwarfs in Snow White. As I recall they all loved Snow White enough to risk their own lives to go after the witch together.
beartrap12,
If the MO of a therapy becomes well understood or at least we'll recognized and UCLA's test accurately recognizes responders then open label data can be used to confirm benefit. This then becomes an issue for an ethicist intervention but since Germany has already approved it for use in all GBMs for the HE program , FDA just needs to decide if they agree with Germany's assessment and allow it for compassionate with a confirmation trial along side or perhaps even upgrade their decision to expanded label extension. One way or the other Germany will have the advantage. There will be medical tourism from a delayed label extension from FDA or reimbursement advantage for their own citizens with that already pretty much negotiated except for perhaps final price of DCVax depending on cost/benefit ratio.
Looks like this concept could be used for scaffolding in regenerative medicine.
Steppenwolf Speaks,
Turtle65 hasn't lost his hay, he just let others play with it for a little while even if he didn't mean to. The problem with hay that hasn't dried out long enough and gets stacked in the storehouse, like counting on chickens before they hatch or treasure not yet retrieved, is that the continued drying process concentrates the heat to a point that autocombustion can occur. Good thing Turtle65's hay is insured against that problem. That doesn't mean he wouldn't mind seeing those who took his hay doing a little lost chicken fire dance.
sentiment stocks,
Nice job working the puzzle! I had always thought there might be enough blinded evidence or even open label evidence to get a regulator involved from an ethicist recommendation while the company remained blinded for at least a subgroup which is what the pseudos were basically targeting. Keep up the good work. By the way, glad you liked the locust discussion. Best wishes.
Doktornolittle,
That is a good reminder but just to clarify, circulatory DCs are known to seek out inflamatory signaling pathways as do migratory cancer cells, at least by by all appearances. If "activated" DCs are drawn more to the same sites as migratory cancer cells then this is where certain immune system interactions can take place as DC signaling modifies the environment. This then leads to identification of cancer antigens, perhaps by various modalities, depending on the type of activation. DCs and macrophages are looking for dead or dying cells. If inflamatory signaling is not coupled with dead or dying cells then DC antigen presentation is impaired. Only certain immune cells bumping into metastatic cancer cells or drawn to congregated DC signaling might have a chance to identify and destroy these cancer cells before they move out of the circulatory system and attach to tissue. Many metastatic cancer cells do appear to be killed this way but escape occurs anyway in most cases. A certain type of DC and its proper activation might help with circulatory and binding site recognition of antigens by regular T-cells without the need for migration to the lymph zone by the DCs. I don't want to get too specific here for obvious reasons but NWBO has mentioned how DCs can be activated in some of their documents and some types of activation would allow this to occur.
iclight,
Tell Dr. Linda Liau, Dr.Prins, Dr. Subbiah and all the others associated with this company including those who just joined by way of the SAB that the science is lousy and they will probably smile, laugh or shake their head without any other response.
You have yet to explain the importance of CXCR4 while I have said and or implied that the price of these shares will continue to drop as the attacks mount until news is finally released. You have about 3-4 months max and perhaps much less. Feel free to make the most of it. You can mark my words. Linda won't quit and the science won't fail. Best wishes.
flipper44,
I wonder if someone being asked by their broker if their shares were available to lend out has anything to do with this phenomenon.
flipper44,
Looks like neo antigens are exposed during transition and perhaps early stage of invasion. When a certain binding process occurs it causes certain antigens to become submerged and sends immune cells packing. Activated DCs can help keep this binding in check where inflamation signal or naturally occuring higher levels of this signal at site is occurring so immune cells have extra time for search and destroy.
threefoot,
L is the closest to "being ready" for commercialization as far as we know. Big pharma wants quick turn around if possible and if UCLA's biomarker analysis can be approved for patient selection and a trial endpoint can be reduced to just immune response then you have a very quick turnaround with L. Much more is unproven and relatively unknown about Direct which is why the SAB is going to be helpful at putting the best minds together to work on proper anticipation of MO and, therefore, trial design. Best wishes.