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Apparently the script is flat w/o RI results. Amarin is all about Vascepa (so all about RI now). The potential of V is huge -- sky is the limit.
It is prudent for the company to add the $70M cash on hands. In fact, I believe the company will offer again (say $100M) followed RI success (RRR 25%?), but the PPS will pop big at that offer.
Anyway, we have to wait to the 3Q revealing.
We were all expecting a secondary private offer. Some said prior to RI readout, and others preferred a follow-up to RI. But no one expected such an early timing (way before the commence of the final visit).
Anyway, the Offer provides a relief to anxious long-term share-holders. I don't think March has too much attraction. Attention is, now, focusing on July/August RI readout. We can sleep better till Q3 :)
Last week's 12M shares pop to about $4.5 attracted quite many shorts. Today's dip is a cover.
If RI results are good, I expect FDA will take a full length (10 Mon) to review it for THE "political" reasons.
JL
How to get a copy of that William O'Neill's book? Could you post a link for downloading the copy?
Thanks.
Anything closed above $4.47 (multi-year high) is great, in views of nothing new in today's PR.
Repost #119974:
Friday, 12/29/17 04:14:43 PM
Re: None
The 52-Week high, $4.47, could be playing as a primary resistance till March.
Another trade of 1,900 contracts (190,000 shares) 2019 Jan $3.50 Calls at $1.80 followed through that 2,000 contracts. Seemingly, some big one sold common shares and bought Calls.
G,
It is definitely "RI First" for AMRN. The a) and b) are in the second class comparing with RI. JMG
My guess the unblinding (for review) would be around early April.
After JPM Conference, seemingly AMRN doesn't have any significant EVENT coming out soon (2017 results are almost known -- will be officially reported in Feb). Such that the PPS may keep a random walk around $4.xx into March. The onset of RI completion would be in late March, and would be publicized in July (I expect the submission of RI sNDA in July, and resubmission of a revised ANCHOR sNDA around that time -- perhaps with law-suits). Label changes may happen in late 2018 or early 2019. JMG: Just My Guess.
Rafun,
[/pi]-Value is primarily associated with the standard error of the random variable RRR and sample size playing a basic role. Now, the sample size has already been set, such that the standard error should be primarily subject to how well the CVOT is designed and executed. I believe that all longs are very patient (in back-mirror views of 2013 AdCom), but shorts are a bit panic (RWE is against them).
12%, 15% or 20% RRR? That is a random variable. What we have to watch is the corresponding p-value. A pretty small p-value gives you the security about that RRR. Be patient, 2018 is here.
Thanks Sam.
I think that your numbers are from a consistent source, such that the numbers can reasonably demonstrated a trend. By your numbers, Early 2017 TRX was at 18K level, and last week (early 2018) was at 22K level. It's about 22.2% increment on TRX w/o CVOT data. That is ionic.
With a successful RI (JT showed confidence on JPM conference), I am looking forward for a BO (around 2018 Year End) by PFE or GSK. Right now, the sentiment is "WAIT and SEE" till March.
From July 2017 to now, the daily chart demonstrates a Cup & Handle or a Reverse Head and Shoulder. Anyway, AMRN is ready to run and running high, Technically.
G
It's an advertising tool?
There are so many statins with a wide range of differences. Some statins may have interaction (good or bad) with V. A fixed one may not fit all ("one size" doesn't fit all). Better leave it to MDs to decide which combo (V capsules + S pill) is fitting "you".
I am a strong supporter for V but not for THE combo.
The patented V + S Combo may not be sold well as it involves such amount of daily dose (4 * 1000 mg or 8 * 500 mg EPA alone) -- Combo used to be aimed eliminating Pill Burden. A 10 mg S pill would not be a significant burden for 4000 mg V capsules. JMO
I am buying (and bought) in-the-money calls.
HDG
THX. Amazingly, you have so many weapons.
THX
I don't have a chance to know the details of FDA's CRL about ANCHOR sNDA. CRL is a Complete Response Letter. "Response" does not mean deny or disapproval, and the company has never announced withdrawing the ANCHOR sNDA. So, ANCHOR sNDA is still existing. Any clarification about ANCHOR sNDA status? The fair thing for FDA is taking 10Mon review but adding ANCHOR to the label in 3Q18.
Any outlook on RI sNDA submission, and review (subjected by RI SPA -- 10 Month? 6 Month? or 2 Month?) Does ANCHOR will be approved first after the completion of RI (as AdCom 9:2 voted in Oct 2013)?
It is well coordinated that DTC program and trials for potential expending of label are companying with RI. Anyway, higher RX is the life of Vascepa.
The 52-Week high, $4.47, could be playing as a primary resistance till March.
That was with Eric Coleman (on behave of FDA) and 9:2 AdCom Vote(hijacked by FDA).
However, Reduce-It will set up a precedence for competitions.
I remember you, Keystone, as well as others: speedrunner (Ma -- U of NM), docofinvestments and poor kiwi. I got in after AdCom, then traded a few times, and still hold 150K common and options. My username on Yahoo was differed from current one.
All about R-I (AdCom voted 9:2 would be a keystone for this stock), and 2018 is around the corner now. Currently, the market force against AMRN is artificially huge, but the direction could take a U-turn in one night. I always said here: be patient -- The morning sun has just got out of the dark clouds.
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to all.
Beside composition patents, quite many Use Patents (methods of use) should be on Vascepa -- just by knowledge, don't want waste time to get all the details.
Percentagely, R-I should have more death than JELIS. R-I population is much sicker than JELIS'.
BTW, I sold a lot of Dec 15 $4 Calls (covered by COMMON). I thought about Jan 2018 Calls, too hard to make any decision at now with concerns of yearend effect and new year effect.
AMRN Options -- Dec 15 Calls
Open Interest
$4 14,319 Contracts (over 1.3M shares)
$5 17,138 Contracts (over 1.7M shares)
Perhaps, some players sold $4 Calls and heighted by $5 Calls, but some others did the opposite in against. However, even $4 is a push to current PPS. Two forces are fighting each another
Looking at Option Open-Interest, Dec 15 Calls show some higher interest in $4 and $5.
Thanks Sam. Weekly scripts are sweet.
The guess of next weekly script for everyone is:
TRx exceeds 25K or NRx exceeds 10K?
I did an experiment on my self, a few years ago. In simple, the answer is YES -- Total LDL and TG outcomes are fine with lower dose.
mm/yy___V g/d_____TG___TLDL__HDL_Dosing
May/13_____0______327__104___51_(w/o V)
Sep/13_____2______520__210___37_(starting V 2g/d)
Dec/13_____3______303__130___54_(starting 3 g/d)
Mar/14_____1______194___95___44_(starting 1 g/d)
May/14_____1_______89__119___37_(maintaining 1 g/d)
Sep/14_____2______167__135___50_(starting 3 g/d)
Current____3______131__116___49_(maintaining 3 g/d)
AMRN's PPS is sleeping deeply with snores. Only R-I outcomes can wake it up. Usually, as a BIO, 6 months would be the time of ......
"TRx: 24,765
NRx: 9,480"
ALL TIME HIGH!!!
There are 2,749 Nov 17 $4.00 Calls. May not be enough to push the PPS.
$3.53: a TA play?!!!
Cash on Hand at the end of quarter:
1Q/17: $96.1M
2Q/17: $85.5M
3Q/17: $79.1M
and positive cash flow anticipated at 2017 end.
Such that no dilution is in sight.