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You said ever thing and nothing. Perfect job done.
The PDUFA was set up as May 24 2022 (only 40 days away), but this stock is keeping dropping. Not a serious concern, just wonder when it will be turning. I expect it will be around $15 in May.
To make a long story short, I just admit that I have had holding and trading AMRN since 2013, profited a significant SOME, and then lost quite SOME by Dr Du's judgement.
Fortunately, I bought some TEVA shares, as a hedge, at $9.46 per share (now it is topping $13). And I have posted that idea on this board previously.
Now, with the ANDA approved by FDA, the generics is entering the market.
I am interesting to see what would TEVA react.
Perhaps, there will be an injection by the court, then all generics will back to sideline. Otherwise, TEVA would follow others launching its own version of generics.
The PPS of AMRN shares is calm for now. Any significant drop of AMRN PPS means that generics are all in.
I think buying TEVA shares would be a good hedge for AMRN shareholders.
Although AMRN will appeal soon, but whether AMRN will prevail is still in everyones guess.
I think the PPS of AMRN may raise somewhat to about $12 in the near future, but the uncertainty of the resolution will bring fluctuation in. And COVID-19 makes the situation mudier.
I have solidly been with AMRN since 2013. Now, I miss the clarity. I do not have the encouragement to take an all-in, though I still have a big bid on the table.
If nothing critical adding on COVID-19, next week is so critical to AMRN. Judge Du's decision on ANDA challenges will define the marketing phase of Vascepa,
I expect a favorable decision. The market may show some hesitation before the decision. But a jump on a favorable judgement will release a huge amount of energies.
And, this year's Tax deadline delays for three months -- just like spear a huge amount of gasoline to the fire. Originally, the Apr 17 Options looking shacking, but it will be a hot spot now.
I agree.
COVID-19 will be calm down in weeks (at most months), but CVD will accompany with human being forever.
Someone said that AMRN's SP will be $20 for Feb and $30 for Mar. I have no doubt abut $30 for Mar due to Judge Du's attitudes in the hearings. But there may be a time shortage for $20 at the end of Feb (only one week to go).
Any comments?
Seems to me that AMRN may bottom around $17.5 (26W low). it may bounce around the earning (Feb 24), but how high? The end of March is so important to show the strength of this stock (winning the patent fight is a must to go further in a long marketing road).
Be patient.
A typical cup&hadle (in sharp-carts) formed between 7/7/19 to now. Tomorrow will be the begin of the jump.
I have followed AMRN since 2013. I owned a few K shares at that time. Since then, I read and re-read 2013 AdCom comments of panelists for about a dozen times. I was certain that V will become an important "Cadio Candy". I have kept vesting on AMRN year by year. Now, 6 years later, I am concentered on AMRN, with about 100K common shares and a few dozens K shares of options.
Alike many others, THE Sep 24 2018 made me a Millionaire (first time in my life). Make a long store short, I am kept going. ......
I predict that V will be a blockbuster in 2022 by the following linear progressing:
2019 $400M+
2020 $600M+
2021 $800M+
2022 $1B+
With a non-linear pattern, V could generate $1.5B+ in 2022 (becoming a blockbuster in 2021).
However, Amarin could be BOed in early 2020.
I suggest to set September 24 to be THE AMARIN DAY due to what happened to AMRN on September 24, 2018.
I am a trader not an expert.
Trading options is eyeing on potentials. For instant, AMRN has the potential but needs time to realizing. Such that I decide to buy long-term calls. I have accumulated 2021 Jan 15 Calls since 2014, and it awards me 100% return now (I am holding the calls and commons, and would not exercise it now).
What is my view on today's 16:0 AdCom vote result?
It means that we could see a new 52W high and 100M volume tomorrow. It is a powerful short-squeeze. I expect to see $30 SP on Christmas. It is a clear signal of de-risk for AMRN stock. The possibility of a partner or a BO is insight. I plan to take 10% of my AMRN stock off the table to support a merry Christmas and a happy new year for my family. Glad to be an AMRN shareholder.
Thank you LB.
Thank you LBL.
Could someone post the link for observing 11/14 AdCom?
TIA.
Could someone post the link for observing 11/14 AdCom?
TIA.
A golden-cross is formed, just 6 days prior to THE AdCom. I think we have a good chance to see $20 pps around THE AdCom.
I don't think so.
AdCom will have a profound discussion on Vascepa's label with a positive outcome.
Seems to me that the PPS will stuck around $15-17 for now, then moving to $20 pre-AdCom. I don't see anything wrong towards an approval. Usually, PPS would drop right before an AdCom. But with the depression in AMRN PPS, I expect no serious drop in AMRN PPS prior to AdCom. I don't see anything wrong with 11/14 AdCom. The excellent RI results could provide 9 YES and 2 NO for 2019 AdCom. I expect a jump in PPS on positive questionnaire 2 days before AdCom. I expect to see some rumor about BO post AdCom. PPS may go crazy on approval and BO rumor.
Be patient and stay tune. We have waited for 6 years. Now, only one month to go.
I am at the same area as you do, but my insurer is HealthNet. My copy is $80 for three month.
You paid $680 for 3 Mon's V, seems no discount from your insurer (you paid full price). It's OK. But quite many insurers give discount to their customer certain discount on V for preventing CVD. Why not change to another insurer? I am interesting in the case for finding out why V face some headwinds.
Seemingly, quite many longs have already taken a hedge position.
I haven't do that and wait for 11/14 AdCom. I originally has a plan, but wait for the AdCom to finalized my plan.
Currently I am watching the PS trends. Can Monday's trades follow Friday's U-Turn? If so, who high the U-Turn can reach?
I don't agree the consparicy theory. I think FDA is doing a good job of handling the most important Heart Medicine.
Be patient and keep head up, my fellow long-term longs. We have waited for 5 years, 6 weeks is relatively short.
The generics can employ the deny tactics but they have to worry about the treble damage. Now, we are still waiting for the approval of the sNDA, such that let us focus on 11/14 AdCom first, and then let us focus on the approval. With the approval, I think most of the intruders will seek a collective settlement. And Amarin will do what they can do legally.
Or, Amarin has to go to the court for a case of patent infringement (I think Amarin needs one) -- the generics would try to dismiss Vascepa's patents anyway. I believe the court will lead the case to a settlement but generics have to pay certain damage (may not be a treble).
JMHO
Yes, I agree with the similarity btw DNDN and Amarin in exclusive of the end of story. The RI data are so strong, and CVD is such a killer, such that their ending store will be totally different.
Any trade has a buyer and a seller. Some big money are shorting AMRN along the way, but some are loading their truck. Perhaps, some of them are doing both at the same time for swing trades.
Make the long story short, we are close to the end and the light is already visible.
The share price was going down for a while, but the AdCom is only 7 weeks away. There has no large room for shorts to keep daily down.
For us long-term longs, we have prepared well to face that situation (violent prior to an huge BINARY event). With excellent RI results and a very stable financial position, Amarin built up on strength, shorts shacking the tree is nothing else than making noises.
Shorts may try to press the SP to $13. Let's wait and see. Volume will lead the way out the crux. I expect to see multi-dozen M volume before the PS going upwards -- perhaps in late OCT or early Nov.
We wait for 5 years. why not to further wait for a few weeks.
If the AdCom goes well, the share price would goes around $30 in two or three months.
BP is waiting for the AdCom as we do. So many issues could be affected by the AdCom, BPs have to know the details before they can make a reasonable offer. Purified EPA is a new drug, one may have different conclusion based on different angle.
Stay tune and be patient.
PS begins to turn to upward, but the Death Cross continues to be formed -- no matter what, the 50d MA will keep tanking for a while, so does the Death Cross. I expect a Golden Cross will be forming around 11/14, and hope this Golden Cross will be a prolonging one.
I don't think so.
Big boys are usually very active around a binary event like AdCom.
The Death Cross is officially formed today. But it will be a short one -- gone around 11/14 AdCom.
Thanks to Sam, as always.
I enter the game after 2013 AdCom --guided by JL and Sam. I am concentratedly holding a load of AMRN Common Shares and Options (primarily 2021 Jan $20 Calls). I am waiting for 11/14 AdCom to refine my game plan. I may hold the majority of my AMRN shares until the end of AMRN.
BTW, a Death Cross is forming faster than I expect --perhaps in a few days. Now I expect a Golden Cross will be formed around 11/14 AdCom.
We have been with patience for a few years. Now is the time to begin to make a new plan for the retirement..
Anyway, I believe AMRN made and will make hundreds Millionaires (including quite many long poster on this message board).
When do you expect the next golden cross will happen?
Seemingly, a Death Cross could be formed in next week or so. But this one will be a short-lived one. I expect the coming Death Cross will end before 11/14. The last Death Cross was from Apr 2018 to Sep 2018.
It meant a delay is highly possible. Such that no approval (even a tentative one) on 9/28. 11/14 AdCom may discuss the details of that amended sNDA (with new label). And the approval may come at Jan or Feb 2020.
My Planning:
1) Alert 9/28 to see if anything from FDA (except the approval of the sNDA, I expect nothing else significant)
2) Expect the questionnaire come out by 11/14 (I expect the 11/14 AdCom will focus on the label expansion).
3) Won't sell a single share prior to 11/14, and make a new planning followed 11/14 AdCom.
4) If 11/14 AdCom results favorable Label to Vascepa, I will continue to hold all my shares till the end of Amarin (I expect a BO, but I welcome a solid GIA).
About the "death cross":
Looking at the chart, a new "death cross" is forming and could be formed soon, but it will be a short-lived one.
After the $420M financing, the giant shorts (probably, they were the major buyers of the financing) shorted the stock to $13, then pulled it back to $17 or so. These treading earned them money in the scale of $100Ms paid by retailers. Now, 11/14 is about 60 days away. I expect to see those kind of treading repeat again with reduced scales towards 11/14.
However, the clinical data may change the treading pattern. If EVAPORATE data confirming RI, then the shorts will lose their shirts.
Seemingly, tomorrow will be a up day for AMRN. Hopefully, the PPS will close above $17.
If the 50 dEMA keeps topping 200 dEMA, we will dodge a "death cross". It will be helpful of increasing longs' confidence.
Wait to see anything happens on 9/28 (maybe nothing significant, I guess). Whether the PPS will break $18 in October and approach $20 prior to 11/14 are in regards.
I hold my shares tight -- won't sell a single share till doing DD with 11/14 AdCom.