Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Remember 411 (April 11th) deal of 2M shares 2019 Jan $4/$7 option spread? (If AMRN PPS < $4, both seller and buyer miss their premium.)
It starts brewing?
THX Sam for the RX numbers.
In my view, AMRN should raise V price followed a successful RI (reducing CAD risks) to distinct further from cheap GL (increasing LDLC). I am an AMRN shareholder and a V taker since 2014.
Today's trading volume is up a little and share price is flat. I expect this random-walk pattern will be here for awhile.
Seems $3.75 is the major resistance ahead. If the SP can top that in May, then $7 in Sep will be expected.
FFS?
H
Please read the transcript of JT on 5/2 CC (SA has it). And this subject has been discussed on this board recently.
For the R-I trial, the null hypothesis is zero RRR and the alternative hypothesis was 15% RRR originally. The low PS suggests the doubt on that alternative. Recently, the company (JT) has changed the alternative to 8% RRR. JT didn't mention the corresponding p-value to that 8% RRR. Seems p-value for R-I depends on the definition of what is the "p-value" for a complicated CVOT as R-I. Perhaps, there should be a set of p-values instead of a single one. The continuous low PS doesn't expect too much. But current low PS could be an artificial one made by some hedges.
The 2M shares of $4/$7 options spread, traded on April 11, is under the water now. The premium for that spread was $1M and I have no doubt that nobody intend to throw their hard earned money into the water. I am looking for some actions in coming months.
September will be the "deadline". Fortunately, there should be a "2Q Earning" in August. I am holding my shares and waiting for the August CC and the September SHOWDOWN.
Let's take one step at a time: The pps of AMRN would be topping $3.6 by end of May.
THX BB for the information.
Thx BB for informing the board.
Most of us don't understand the details, but we know Amarin has to overcome certain obstacles for moving forward. Please keep doing your good work and making some explanation for us sometimes.
I believe that JT and company did some home work and found something lower than 15% may be enough to be the threshold of RI success in terms of CVD. However, the higher RRR is the better clinically and commercially.
About RRR, JT in 5/2/18 CC:
"If we've got positive statistically significant results on an outcome study that's a world of difference versus what we're selling on today. So our trial design around 15% relative risk reduction we're seeing tremendous excitement on PCSK9, at least by the cardiologist community in particular. And they're expensive and we've got a profile that's affordable, well tolerated, placebo like safety profile. Our marketing surveys was suggested that of physicians that anything from sort of 7% to 8% up, would be viewed as being a well-received result. We're aiming for higher than that, I think the data suggest that will be higher than that."
Somebody pumps RRR > 30% on this board. If result RRR be really > 30%, It is really GOOD. But JT pointed out that "anything from sort of 7% to 8% up, would be viewed as being a well-received result."
Expecting too high leads to deep disappointment. "Pumper" could be real "dumper". From someone's history, he saying "buying" may mean something else.
Be patient, just wait and see.
#3 Flip/Flop or FUD: This MB has some, posting frequently trying to influence others.
Thanks Sam for making us informed.
I remember that KIWI posted quite long ago: "just bet what affordable". Yes, I count on the risk/reward ratio. And I know V's efficacy from a few patients.
You know, the major fight (shown by options) would happen in 2019 Jan. For sure, I expect my holding could be profitable in coming Fall, but I don't want to miss that fighting.
My Guess:
In May 2nd CC, Amarin will announce the completion of the trial and lock the data. Then the pps will start to move to $4.
We know some poster on this board be flip/flop for years. Why not just leave him alone. Talking too much with him = encourage.
Today's pps closed at a two-year low. Can it go lower? The probability is against it but still possible (as a small probability event).
Does V has certain efficacy (CVD and/or others)? Definitely YES. Will V succeed in RI? That's a $64M question. Who knowing the answer would sell ones house to go Long or Short.
Every trade has a seller and a buyer. Some big deals were already on the table, particularly by Options. The option deals on April 11 involved 2M shares of 2019 Jan $4/$7 spread (the premium only was above $1M, and nobody wants to throw own money into water). Some smaller deals followed (e.g. 2018 Sep $7 Calls). Reading the trades, my impression is some big boys need to push the pps beyond $4 in May and continue to approach $7 in September. Anyway, May is only one week away -- let's wait and see.
An Evening Star!!
When will be the FINAL final-visit?
Volume is up above average in two consecutive days. I expect pps > $4 in May and > $7 in early September.
The strategy post readout should depend on how strong the RI results. A very strong results (say 30%+ RRR), one may sell a little even add some. If it is 15%+, the strategy could be "half and half". Below 10% indicates a fuzzy future.
JUST my two cents.
Thanks, Sam81.
The script data provide the unarguable rationales for the options traded on April 11 (2M shares of $4/$7 spread Calls --the traders paid $1M for the premiums only).
The floor of PPS should be becoming $4 in May (PPS has been below $4 for most of time in recent 5 years), and, with successful RI, $7 should be becoming the new floor in September.
I am anxiously waiting and seeing.
I believe those 2M shares of $4/$7 spread calls bring fresh air into the old pond of trading AMRN. $4 used to be approaching the ceiling of recent 5 years PPS, and now the spread suggests it will be the new floor. And $7 becomes the batter ground of the binary event RI -- if RI OK then $7 will renew the floor. If broken the $7 ceiling can help some old longs, I hope it coming sooner.
$30 PPS would be approximate to $10B market capital. It is not impossible, but it need an almost perfect RI and a full speeding AMRN expansion. And $10B MC may be underestimated by 5 more years from NOW.
Five years from 2013 AdCom, still remember 9:2 NO votes with most panelists' final encourage statements for the future. And the "future" is almost HERE.
Disclosure: I am not a "bag-holder", but an accumulator.
Big Moves: 1M shares on Jan 2019 $4 Call, and 1M shares on Jan 2019 $7 Call.
Every trade must have a buyer as well as a seller, such that a BigBoy sold $7 calls and bought $4 calls and another BigBoy bought $7 calls and sold $4 calls. Since AMRN currently traded around $3, those tradings (2M shares) were all bullish. It is expected that AMRN will be above $4 soon, very soon.
What AMRM doing is spread the acknowledgement of Vascepa prior to RI read-out, and only MARINE is FDA approved.
Seems MGMT shows a high level of confidence. But 2013 October AdCom still FUD investors (some "investors" are still engaging in the FUD). Such that HIGH POTENTIAL accompanying with LOW PPS is the current phenomenon.
I believe the PPS will be ultimately going higher before RI read-out (RI still is too big to be ignored). But perhaps we have to wait till early 3Q.
The onset of the 1,612th event should be happening in these days. And AMRN should PR it. Be patient.
Seemingly, AMRN PPS is entering into a bottom building process. This process could be a prolonging one (due to no new news). The 1,612 Case may be onset soon. But "so what". The "onset" itself has no directions. And the PPS "bottom" may be broken in April or May. Currently, I won't sell any, and nor buying.
Thank you Sam, for your sincere input. Without RI results, RX only can show slow and steady forwarding.
I am careless about current PPS -- the MGMT built a $3.24 base, but big boy has the power to move to below $2.82 in early 3Q18.
I still believe RI will achieve a positive RRR with p < 0.0462.
Vascepa will have many indications beyond CVD. Company can off-labelly promote two new per year. But the company should be vary seriously careful and better to be with solid evidence.
May could be a boring month adding to March and April. But June could bring some warm whether to AMRN.
Having a good weekend.
By Jim Cramer in Lightening Run
Amarin Corporation PLC: "I used to like this stock. It is a real speculative stock. I mean, I'm talking about a real speculative stock. As long as you're willing to recognize that you can lose what you invested in that one, I'm OK with it."
Let's see if any reaction in tomorrow's trading.
I would like to mention that the rate (no matter placebo, active or composited) is a random number. Don't argue about 5%, 5.2%, ... Even RRR is a random number. With the sample size of 4,000, the standard error should be small. So, I expect RI to outcome a RRR with statistical significance.
Please read the Transcript.
Hope is alive. RI read out would be THE ironic determinant. As I said previously, we don't need 30%, 20% or even 15% RRR -- we only need a positive RRR with a p-value less than 0.0462. Or p-value be less than 0.05 for a few secondary indications.
Investment is always a risky business (even no safety concern with V). Be patient or just leave the table.
I don't think so. We may still have a bumping road for a few months.
With $80M offering, "a massive buy back" doesn't make sense.
If RI succeeds and V profitable, AMRN should employ all cash flow for extensive commercialization of Vascepa in different indications. Still a long way to go, about 10 years to approach the peak.
But, first thing first, we need to see RI results, before we can make any reasonable judgement,
As a disclosure, I own a bunch of 2019 Jan In-The-Money Calls.
Skeptic is taking off even in some long-term longs. Since 2013 Oct AdCom, more than "four more years" has been gone. We don't need 30% RRR or 20% RRR by RI. We need any positive RRR with a p value less than 0.05 (some one said 0.046). Sure, higher RRR and lower p value will be much helpful to the promotions.
Someone predicted a 70% chance of failure, but without any evidence. If someone just want to cry out. Please do.
RI results are still everyones guess. Be patient. Let's wait and see.