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Me too with TDA.
As the representative called me about the concentration of only one ticker in my account. He is very admired to the recent jump of AMRN. I told him that a well educated concentration is much better than the Kramer's Diversify.
Trading volume is shrinking big today (from 20M+ to about 7M). A few more days (small downs or further volume shrinkage) would do the consolidative jobs and ready for new jumps.
After the successful RI trial, AMRN should submit quite a few new patent applications to PTO. These new patents will prolong V's commercial life at peak sales even with the possibility of TEVA joining the game in 2029 (TEVA could be one of the bidders for the BO; but I don't think TEVA is as strong as other real BPs -- TEVA is only a secondary BP).
I am not a day-trader. Short-term-short does not make too much $$ and it is dangerous with (recently) crazy AMRN. I am waiting for Nov 10th, and holding all shares going into 2019 for long term capital gain.
Today is options expiration date. There has 6,752 Contract (67,5200 shares) at $20 and more than 1 M shares >= $20. I expect that AMRN will be closed under $20 to make those shares worthless.
There will be a new story for next week.
Bye Bye, Lovaza (Weekly TRx less than 1,000).
That (long-term vs. short-term) is a valuable suggestion. I have prepared for long-term capital gain since I started holding AMRN in 2014. Still add some shares in 2018. I will hold new shares till late 2019 at least (unless a BO).
Does AMRN have any "poison pill" for hostile BO? I believe they need one.
Martinas is one of the triplets with AMRN. Their claim is just a propaganda. Lowering TG 40% in a 2 week trial is just a beginning (many other drugs can lowering TG more) and does not provide any robust signal for preventing CVD. They have do much more than lowering TG and avoid to infringe AMRN's patents. Not a real competition to Vacepa for years yet.
Today, a consolidation is going on. Just the volume is too small (means the majority of big sharks are aside).
We need 2 or 3 more this kind consolidative days before AHA to firm the ground for jump.
I suggest the party provides empty badges to attendants to write down their poster-name (and ones true name if one wants to do that).
Thanks Kev. I heard "529" quite a few years ago and it becomes fuzzy to me. You bring me to it again as I have got a strong push from AMRN financially.
I'd like to set up an education trust for my grandchild. Is that TAX Exemptable or not? TIA
I have being with CVS/caremark mail-order service, paying $80 every 3 month (3 bottles of 120 capsules each) for 5 years now (I have health insurance sponsored by my employer UCSF). It is good and stable, but may not be the best in price.
Invest,
I have a relative who had a MI then got open-heart surgery with two bypasses, and lived 8 more years.
Just FYI
How many longs became Millionaires now? Could you stand up?
First at all, I DO.
I have held the position since 2014, and expand to 150K shares (Common + Calls) now.
From AMRN's PR:
"Amarin's president and chief executive officer, is scheduled to present a general company update at the 2018 Cantor Global Healthcare Conference on Wednesday, October 3, 2018 at 11:30 a.m. EST."
I expect JT will share SOME lights on Oct 3rd (to move the PS north a little) but not ALL.
The company will keep the powder dry for the BUST on Nov 10th.
Thank You, Sam, for the weekly RX #.
For this board, two IDs are most important: Sam81 and JL. In my view, your ID is #1 (you provide the fact), and JL is #2 (JL provide theories).
Congratulations to you for new born son.
I have common shares and a bunch of 2019 Jan $2 Calls (cost $1.88 per share) -- so my Calls are totally covered by Commons even the Calls don't need to be covered.
I would not sell any common shares but plan to do the exercise for Calls in 2019 Jan to transfer to Commons. I think a BO will come in 2019.
I was advocating to buy 2019 Jan Calls quite a few months ago (I did that and have 400% growth and still going north). If you have cash, I still suggest you to buy long-term calls. It will reword you handsomely.
Anybody has the weekly RX numbers? TIA
Glad to hear that you have the RX. It ensure you are on V. By enrolling into RI, you have 50% chance on Placebo!!!
If you have enough info about V and you know your risk of getting CVD, why you wait for enrolling to the study. You should take 4g/d V right away. Doc should issue the RX to you. If not, pay it by yourself (if affordable).
For the MB readers, if you have CVD risks, don't wait. Just take V 4g/d, even pay by yourself (if affordable). Live is too short!!!!
While we are congratulating the "25%" and waiting for AHA November Conference, we still have to watch the develop of RX numbers and the FDA approval process. Seemingly, FDA will approve RI labeling in a few months, but their wording will be the crux to V's sales. The PPS will correlate with the sales of V. From current $12 to Citi's $50, there will be a hard way ...
I did exercise options into common shares a few times previously. Just keep enough cash in your brokerage account and call your brokerage company prior to the expiration day and tell them you want to exercise XYZ options. Some brokerage company will hand out to you a confirmation number. That's all. The options will transfer to common shares in the next business day.
I have got into AMRN since 2014, experienced ups and downs. Did some trading and made some money (just some), and always add more to my position (common shares and ITM Jan 19 Calls -- I was advocating buying Jan 19 Calls a few times). I plan to sell some in coming winter for cash and hold the rest for years.
I believe that AMRN will make quite a few new millionaires.
With 25% RRR, BOs should be on the table, but AMRN may not take any BO in this timing. I guess almost everyone (including MDs) is suitable to take Vascepa. I am not in hurry to sell a single share. I would like to see Vascepa RX numbers (thanks to Sam81) for a few weeks in order to fique out the big picture.
Thanks also go to JL. You are a HERO. I vote you to be the president of this message board. Ha Ha Ha.
Do you know what 35% RRR means?
Hopefully you are right. Then everyone will take Vascepa, and AMRN will be a $100 stock in early 2019.
It is almost certain that AMRN will release RI results on Monday morning.
My guess: (for now)
RRR PPS
5% $2
10% $4
15% $7
20% $10
25%+ $15 for now and a BO offer ($20+)
If RRR > 15% and AMRN keeps GIA, AMRN will be at least a $100 stock before 2029.
JL will be a HERO or a ZERO.
Just a joke, but we will have the answer in days. Disclosure: I am holding a huge long position.
The following except (Dr. Mudoff, a professor of UCLA) interviewed by AF) deserved a re-read at this timing:
"Call Leader 2: I always ask these questions of
experts that I talk to and some like to answer it and
some don't. So I'll just pose it to you. If you had to put
odds on this coming out as a win for Vascepa and the
REDUCE-IT study, a statistically significant, clinically
meaningful risk reduction, zero to 100%, what sort of
odds of success would you give this study?
Doctor: I'd give it about an 85%. I think-
Call Leader 2: 85%?
Doctor: Yeah, I think that the study was done well. I
think that they enrolled patients with high
triglycerides. I think that they had them on
appropriate doses of statins. I think it's a large
enough trial with a high enough event rate that if
there is a benefit of being on EPA, that they will show
it. And I think there is a benefit of high dose EPA, so
I'll give it 85% chance of success."
SharpChart:
An invert Head and Shoulder -- if the right-hand goes north, the arm and fingers will be quite long.
Anyone has any hard evidence for RI data lack beyond guess. No misleading please.
I am owning a large position on AMRN. I am waiting for RI readout to finalize my strategy. I think RI readout, if success, just a beginning. V's label change should follow FDA approval, and FDA may take months (I think 2-6 months) to issue the CRL.
After all, the hard-core for the PPS is sales. In general, V will take 5-7 years to reach its peak sales. So, if there is a spike at the beginning, the PPS will be stabilized (perhaps some set back) within a few weeks and take a correlation with V's RX (sincerely thanks to Sam81 for lightening us every Friday) thereafter.
I may sell a small part of my position on the spike for having some cash. Then to release the rest gradually pending on V's sales and the company's development.
Th best is a BO coming soon after a great RRR.
JMHO
I think the PPS followed the RI readout would depend on RRR, perhaps
RRR PPS
5% $2
10% $4
15% $7
20% $15
30%+ a BO at $25+
JMHO
Volume doubled -- PPS will follow through.
Be patient.
I think the PPS won't hit the sky, even if with good RRR. The PPS will raise in years following the Rx #. A BO will stop it suddenly in 2019.
Z
I will read the RRR closely to define my strategy.
If RRR will be about 7-8%, I may take the money and move; if RRR will be around 15%, I will watch the reactions then make the decision; if RRR will be 30%+ I will add my bet (and I think the PPS will running north for a few years due to the climbing sales -- everybody cares about own heart health -- the number ONE health concern).
I believe that a large number of longs already put their bets on the table, and no way they will touch it prior to the RI readout. Some of them may no touch that money for a while even if RI succeed. Not gamblers, but science believers.
Thank you so much, Sam.
Sam's data keep its own consistence -- V market and commercial is in expansion.
I remember that a few years ago the board discussed what TRx number (in Sam's data)would be indicating AMRN's positive cash flow. The conclusion is 28K.
Now, AMRN's SG&A should be in a higher level (counting on inflation etc). So, 28K TRx may not be enough, but should be close. Positive Cash Flow is a huge milestone. If RI is a success, I am sure the cash flow positive is not in question any longer. I am patient. And the clock is tikking.
AMRN blasted 50 DMA and may top 200 DMA in August.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AMRN&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p44958708737
I believe that the key stone of RI was set up at 2013 AdCom by 9:2 Vote (I have read the AdCom transcript for the n-th time). Such that no need for another AdCom on RI sNDA. I.e., FDA has had enough criteria and authorities to judge RI success or not. Market weighted Jan 18 2019 so heavily, indicating a major event about RI should happen around that time point. JMO