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When AMRN PPS goes from $4 to $15 on 9/24 and keep going, today's hitting action is in planning and organized. There is nothing to do with "mineral oil".
However, 25% RRR just too significant to be hit down by hate hit (mineral oil only produce 3% bias). The PPS may go down below $15 on 11/16, but will recover with good RX numbers (thanks to Sam). Whenever the weekly reported RX number (by Sam) overcomes 38K (now is about 31K), AMRN's cashflow should be positive, and any further hit piece could not shack the tree again.
Looking into the options chain, most of In-the-Money Nov 16 (4 days away) Calls traded with large volume. SELLs? Not likely. Exercised? With a dip? Most likely, adding positions to have some sort-short-term gain. Even "short term", a gain is a GAIN. I followed them and bought 100 contract Nov 16 $15 Calls.
In a CVOT study, using mineral oil + statin as placebo and V + statin as active. If mineral oil blockading statin absorption (reducing in-vivo statin) should cause LDL surge in-vivo and cause CVD surge. If so, how can FDA approve this kind of study design? How can AMRN execute this kind of trial? Nonsense to me. But todays volume is about 40M shares traded. Some MMs are intentional blow polluted airs and fake news to shut out the good news of robust SEs of RI.
Here, "mineral oil" issue comes again. The theory is "mineral oil MAY blockaded statin in-vivo absorption" - we heard that a long long time ago in PK studies. It is easy to prove or disprove by just do a small study in two group of subjects (a dozen or so subjects in each group). One group take statin alone, and another group take statin with mineral oil, for two week or so. This small study should be done by who advocate the theory of 'mineral oil blockade in-vivo statin absorption.' But we have not seen those data. WHY? WHY? WHY? It is not about rocket, only mineral oil and satin.
CV death RRR is 20% (one in five).
Any person with CV risks and known RI results but doesn't take Vascepa to reduce the death risks would be a fool. PCP doctors and CV doctors who doesn't pay attention to that or doesn't prescribe V to risked patients is in crime.
Anybody knows the RRR for CV death? TIA.
25% RRR in PE and 26% RRR in SEs, Monday's morning may be pushing the PPS near $40. JMHO
Any examples in history? The "competition" may not favorite that.
"Triple digit" means $30B in Market Cap. Seems OK to me, but right now, the sales of V does not close to that range. Sam's data may be just for institutions, and now is a bit higher than 30K weekly. I think a triple digit BO should be happening after the weekly institutional RX breaking 40K or so (after AHA, the increment of RX should be heavy).
It is much easier (i.e., much cheaper) to push PPS to $22 in AH than in regular treading time. Smart MM.
Some analysts expect that AMRN will be BO at $30. I really doubt of it. AMRN won't sell themselves for such a price (about $10B). They should operate the company for a while to see the real sales with both PE and SEs in the label (perhaps a label change in mid 2019, but could be have a PDUFA date set in early 2019). Such that a BO speculation should be in force in 2Q19 or so. After that the timing seems correct of talking the BO price.
AH is already 20% up now, and keeps moving north.
The market treats AMRN very tight (about $4 PPS prior to 9/24). No delivery, no PPS raising. But 9/24 told us, with a good delivery, a good jump is coming right away.
I believe that the market hasn't treated AMRN by potential but by delivery since AdCom. So, I predicted $25 for 11/9. Seemingly, the prediction is a close one with two days away.
But this attitude will change after AHA due to those SEs should be taken as deliveries (will be included in the new label). If the SEs are as expected, then PPS will fly, and then RX # will play a bigger role thereafter (25% RRR and SEs guarantee much much higher RX than before). PPS will be above $30 at the beginning of 2019.
It IS a waiting game!
Waiting to see the robustness of SEs' improvement. If SEs' improvement to be in highly correlated with 25% RRR of PE, then AMRN will fly.
Where will be the PPS on Nov 12th market opening? Everyone's guess.
My guess: above $25. Reason: 11/11 AHA presentation will report robust SEs correlated with 25% RRR in PE as expected. Today's drop is just a waiting game.
Thanks Circuit. You said what I want to say: "leverage".
E.g., I bought 800 contracts of 2018 Oct $2 Calls for a bit less than $2 in Oct 2017. I have exercised those options (paid $2 per share) into 80,000 common shares this Oct (as the PPS is around $20). And long-term gain is expected for those shares. Everyone can see, what is the leverage of that trade (allowed me to buy doubled amount of shares at that time and have long-term gain Tax advantages as I sell those shares later).
And you have to take standard errors of random variables into account. So the results will be reported at AHA may apart from your numbers.
I believe those standard errors may be quite large due to the CVOT aspects.
Just for fun, JL, do you trade options?
"Diversify" is a cry in trading stocks. But definitely not for trading options.
As for AMRN now, "diversify" may not be a good advice on holding AMRN no matter commons or options.
Concentrated to AMRN make you rich on 9/24. And another opportunity is on 11/11.
A TD Ameritrade staff call me about my concentration on AMRN. He try to alert me about it. I asked him to look at the chart on my account to see how am I doing. He admitted that "your account has been flying since July." Yes, 9/24 make me 500% richer than before by concentrated on AMRN (July is the time I added AMRN shares to my limit at that time).
Seemingly, some funds have taken a Tax Deferral into action (paying TAX in 2020 instead of 2019).
Thanks. Your summary save me a lot of time.
Can someone post what is the highest bracket of Capital Gain and what is the corresponding Fed Tax Rate(short-term and long-term) ?
With a significantly upward stock, buying In-The-Money Calls is a good way to gain. I played Nov 16 $15 Calls and Dec 21 $20 Calls. The first one has gaining 6 digit (will close position soon) and the second one has gaining 5 digit now. The gain is more than my original capital prior to 9/24.
If I expect a stock going up, I usually buy In-The-Money Calls.
This time, I bought quite many shares of Nov 16 $15 Call in Early Oct (cost a bit less than $6.4 per share). Hope can make some handsome $$ around Nov 16th.
Perhaps kiwi would be interested (he always interesting in others'):
As now, my common shares (accumulating since 2014) gain 500%, and my option shares (purchased in early Oct) gain 30%. Large position for both. My impression (by kiwi's posts) is that Kiwi traded in small position for a few times, right now he may own a small position, or nothing. Seemingly, he is always in FUD -- lack of determination?
Just my guess.
Shacking the tree.
Nov 1st is only two day away. And Nov 11th is on the horizon.
God Bless you, Tellison.
And AMRN will reward you BIG.
Seemingly, AMRN's PPS is in a three-stage JUMP:
First Stage: 9/24 300%; ($15+)
Second Stage: mid Nov another 100% of 9/24; ($30+)
Third Stage: early 2019: about another 100% of mid Nov. (a BO above $60)
If my guess is true, AMRN will break 1200% of pre 9/24/18 level in less than 6-month.
AMRN will make you to be a millionaire soon (perhaps before the yearend of 2018).
Even I hope AMRN stays on GIA, but a BO is still possible with a notable probability (I am waiting for Nov 1st CC to have a clue). Never mind, both ways will make us rich.
Thanks. 11/10 is a Saturday.
So guess the close price at 11/09 close. My guess: $30 (+- $0.50).
Wise guy.
But, shorter the prediction less credit. The correct one-day prediction only gets 1 point. A right prediction n-day before 11/10 gets n point. So, if my prediction matches 11/10 closing price (+-$0.50), I get 28 points.
A Guess Game:
What is the price at Nov 10 market close.
My guess: $30
I believe that AMRN will change hundreds long-term longs into Multi-Millionaires.
Today's trading pattern indicates institutional buys (constant small orders in hours). Need to see an increasing volume at close.
I think after September 24, 25% RRR, more and more investors are interesting in AMRN, and they want to view others' knowledges on AMRN and V. So, they are searching into iHub for any valuable input. I believe iHub is primarily composited by knowledgeable longs (perhaps a few shorts as ignorable minority).
On Nov 10, I am mostly interesting in the Reduction of Cardio Death. Anything above 10% is huge, and it will lead to a quick BO, even a bidding war.
Devil is in the details.
My suggestion:
You may start 4g/d V with your regular aspirin dose and observe for any bleedings. If bleeding is obvious or significant, then stop V or reducing V dose. If bleeding is not significant, then gradually reducing Aspirin dose to about baby dose (you may try to stop aspirin after a while with your doctor's consent).
JMHO
Looking back to 2013 AdCom, I believe that FDA did a right job there. W/o FDA's push, AMRN may just stay with the TG lowering label to avoid spending several Hundred Million (we, AMRN investors, proudly paid for that; we deserved to be rewarded) to accomplish RI.
I am a long here (since 2013 AdCom). I feel like that I have accomplished something.
I still remember some old friends on Yahoo board. Keystone Investor, ..., and specifically Speedrunner (Ma at UNM -- because I am at UC).
Every long survived from AdCom (I read 2013 AdCom documents quite a few times and firmed my decisions) should be very happy now.