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A lot of longs may remember the 6,500 PUT just prior the 2013 AdCom.
This time, the 9,500 $17 CALL should be setter by a PPS a bit higher than $17 at least for a while -- probably in the morning. I'd like to watch the close of the day. If PPS keep higher than $17 at close, than higher PPS may follow through. If not, the PPS will struggle around $17. Since AMRN's $420M financing resulted $18 PPS, I guess we will pass $17 tomorrow. But $18 definitely be a barer to be broken.
I hope the PPS will be higher than $18 prior to 11/14. Then we can expect $20+ at the Yearend. I am conservative -- one step at a time. But Vascepa will bring $30 or $40 to us.
Strange things happening with AMRN: a death cross happened in March 2018 and the 50d MA kept below the 200d MA till late September, and then BOOM 9/24/18 changed the whole dynamics.
Quite many (including Analysts) fear about the coming death cross. I would like to point out that AMRN has its unique dynamics. Followed a short death cross, AMRN will B O O M again.
With RI results, the briefing of 11/14 AdCom would not be a death penalty for AMRN shareholders.
He could short at $18 and now covered.
In predicting future PPS, the realistic way is based on current PPS.
Current PPS is $16.27. $75 would be 5x. A bit high to me. I'd take 2x for early 2020, and take 3x for late 2020. If the market beat me, I will be glad to take higher profit.
Beyond 2020, I don't feel comfortable to make any prediction with a company like AMRN -- in a fast changing phase.
One step at a time. And take a solid step before you jump!
I believe that the 11/14 AdCom will do a huge promotion for Vascepa, and serious BO offers will fellow the sNDA's approval. You may double your current money in 2020 (9/24/18 helped me breaking $1M, now I am planning on breaking $2M in 2020).
I AM one of "little people". I accumulated my money by treadings followed 2013 AdCom. DD + insistency make me here. I am ready to double my current money in 2020.
I am the owner of 726 Contract of 2021 Jan $20 Calls. I did that is because of I thought 2021 is far away from 9/28 PDUFA and 11/14 AdCom. With RI results, I thought it is safe to take this action.
Additionally, I have a bunch of common shares with moderate costs.
It is possible that Amarin becomes a Lame Duck from now to 11/14 AdCom.
I doubt that Amarin will do any influencial action prior to the AdCom.
One event I expect is the PPS returning to $18 prior to 11/14, because the $18 PPS was the result of that $400M financing.
My point is
BUY, BUY (with current PPS $15).
You may double your money in 2020. But I suggest to do deep DD with coming AdCom.
2013 AdCom: whether allow Vascepa flooding to the market without RI results
Answer: 9 NO, 2 YES.
2019 AdCom: we will know the questionnaire on 11/14. Probably it is about Vascepa's new labeling. We should pay attention to every detail of AdCom's questionnaire, roaster, and every detail of discussions.
So far, investing on AMRN provide significant reward. But much more could fellow 11/14 AdCom.
About AMRN's PPS, my guess: $18 at end of October, $22 on 11/14.
Don't say Bye-Bye to AMRN, say BUY BUY.
I think, some Phase IV (post marketing) requirements will be added onto the label expansion. Those requirements are important scientifically, as well as commercially. Fortunately, AMRN has enough cash in hand to handle those additional requirements.
Now, we are waiting for the Questionnaire.
For 2013 AdCom, the questionnaire was on whether to open the gate without RI results.
I guess: this time, the questionnaire could switch to how wild the gate should be opened with existed RI results --details of Vascepa extended labeling.
I expect to read the questionnaire in the first week of November.
FDA is in hesitation.
They granted Priority Review then decided to schedule an AdCom.
I think: at first FDA thought data is enough for an administrative decision; but Vascepa is too important a CVD preventing medication involving millions of lives.
An AdCom is the best for Vascepa's future, IMHO. Any AdCom cannot turn the gold to copper.
Any reaction from Steve Nissen? I doubt he will cry out this time.
MO will always be an issue. But 25% RRR and 20% CVD death reduction are weighting too much comparing with any possible MO effect.
Be patient. Nov 14 only 65 days away.
It was 9:2 voted by 2013 AdCom. I am ready to see the votes by 2019 AdCom with RI results. Safety never be a problem. RI should evidence for efficacy (25% RRR, and 20% reduction of CVD death).
I believe the future Vascepa sales will correlated with the 2019 AdCom details. Be Patient.
"Fair Value" is often a topic wrt any equities. But what is the real "Fair Value"? I don't think there is any definition can be acceptable by all kinds of invests. Different interests NEED different angles to read out that DEFINITION. In the day before and after 9/24/2018, if there has a real "Fair Value", then different investors had different read-out. who is correct or who is wrong only can be judged by the afterwards events.
Now, we will face a similar situation on 9/28/2019. Even way before that events, the $460M offering already did a test: The company got $460M new cash, but with the new shares the company diluted $1200M values.
9/28 is coming soon, what will happen? My guess: the PPS will be upwards two steeps and then backwards one step. In early October, PPS would be higher than $18 but lower than $23.5. If expanded label satisfies investors, PPS should break $25 for going into 2020.
In 2020, the stories will focus on sales and profits -- we will move to a new playground.
I take Pravastatin 20 mg (it has 10 mg and 40 mg available as well) together with V 4g daily.
My recent Total Cholesterol was 172 mg/dl, HDL Cholesterol was 55 mg/dl and Serum TG was 82 mg/dl.
Five years ago, my TG was about 500 mg/dl, LDL was much higher and HDL was much lower.
Last year, I was so pleased of reading the RI results, particularly that CVD risks reduction (25%).
With $460M more COH, the company's future is as good as my blood test results ;)
Today's GAP DOWN will be over filled by 9/28 (I am looking for $25 pps around that date).
A candle in the evening would be bright. I add some.
Thank Sam as always.
By re-reading the documents generated by 2013 Oct AdCom, I firmly stand on "enoiugh said (with 9:2 Vote) about the conditions of approving RI". NO additional ADCOM for approving RI is writing on the wall.
Many "hoper" are hope a dump to enable them buying more cheap shares right before 9/28. they will be disappointed.
Deal with a stock having huge potential, the must is to buy it early. One good strategy is buying in-the-money Calls with the expiration term as long as possible. E.g., buying 2021 Jan Calls as early as it is available on open market. As you identified a good stock, buying in-the-money long-term Calls will make you rich.
From 11/18 to now, a Pan and Handle has been formed. A long break-out is in performing.
Typical Short Squeeze.
The squeezing will continue towards 9/28.
If we can see $30s in late July, then we will see $50s in September. I am very conservative. (in AMRN since 2014)
AMRN has all the potentials, just how to realize it (everyonesguess).
The closer to the PDUFA, the louder of the noise -- big SHORTs are desperately struggling to avoid their $Ms lose. Seemingly, an AdCom would be needed to punish those desperate loser. JMHO
I still believe that the PPS will be around $25 on 9/28, overcome $30 at the yearend. And a partner or a BO is expected. (AMRN may insist GIA, but Shareholders will push for a Partner or a BO -- anyway, AMRN is toooooo small for handing a historically multi$$B product, Vascepa).
Thank you, Sam.
Your tireless efforts provide a comparable platform to knowledge us the current level of Vascepa sales.
Roma was not built in one day, but Roma is standing firm.
We will be there.
Thanks.
When we walk, one step at a time. Sometimes, we jump, but not very often.
Vascepa is a very nice product (my family has 4 members taking Vascapa), but AMRN is too small to push the sales hard enough. The small company cannot support you jump and jump and jump, unless a flying BO. But currently, it appears that no BP will pay big money for buying AMRN now (otherwise, the PPS wouldn't be about $20 now). Many of us have already made $Ms. So, be patient, we will be richer even by walking.
This September is not last year's September.
At current time, a $30 BO would be good enough (around $24 PPS on Sep 28).
For higher valuation, Amarin needs to develop new indications with Vascepa. JMHO
Greedy makes one blind-like!!!
Thank you Sam, as always.
My guess: AMRN will be $30 after 9/28/19 and in 3 digit at the beginning of 2021.
Be patient (taking Vascepa and preventing CVD for sure).
New FUD, Old FUD. "Mineral Oil" and "2g/d" were brought into the pot once again.
If so, why FDA granted PR. Some said an AdCom will come fist. But with granted PR, what AdCom (assuming one) should do: advises on whether a PR should be granted? Non-sense. A PR IS all set.
The PPS will be way above $20, IMO, prior to Sep 28 (the PDUFA day).
I don't think FDA would be a "RISK". Although, I got hurt from 2013 AdCom. I believe FDA handled Vascepa application well, and it pushed AMRN reached the finish-line by completed the RI trial (what if FDA gave the benefit w/o completing RI?). FDA is regulating thousand Pharma-Bio. If FDA is in such narrow-minding to against such a tiny company, they would be too busy to play and to be miserable in their daily life.
For RI sNDA, my attitude is wait and see. Anyway, FDA will set up a schedule for Vascepa sNDA and apply it correspondingly.
About AMRN PPS, when the goose is still flying, don't get ready to eat it :-; be patient (fortunately, we don't have to wait for too long).
Collected all info, seemingly we can mark "September 28" on our calendars: Vascepa sNDA should be approved prior to that day!!!!
I don't expect another AdCom is necessary. If you re-read the material of last AdCom (2013 Oct), you should see that things have been all set for treating today's situation: FDA should grant the Approval based on RI results, just WHEN. I have waited for more than 5 years (holding all my shares). Waiting for another few weeks or months is a potato. Our DAYS is coming and coming soon.
Right now, the guessing games are including the followings:
a) When FDA will take the actions on V sNDA? 45d is out. 60d? 74d? ...
b) What kind of action? Priority review (2m or 6m)? or a normal review (10m)? I expect some kind of priority based on RI.
c) What is sure would be the label expansion base on RI at the end of the review.
Facing those uncertainties, the fluctuations of PPS will be here for a while. Holding your shares tight and waiting for the label expansion. A long-term capital gain won't hurt!!!!
The following is a statement from CVS Caremark:
"The following prescription included in Order #xxxxxxxxx has shipped. You can expect to receive it via UPS Standard.
Rx beginning with VAS 1GM CAP
Rx #****
There are no generic substitutions available for this medication."
Such that DS may not so threatening.
Hmmmmm
I am the one who authored the Pharmacometrics section (PK/PD -- with non-linear logistic analgesic model) for Ibuprofen NDA (the company named Sterling) and went to FDA defensing the NDA in early 1990s (Sterling was BO by PFE immediately followed FDA's approval of Ibuprofen).
Seemingly, AMRN will be BO by BP immediately followed V's sNDA approval.
Thanks, Keystone.
The #s consist with Sam's.
Hopefully, a bid war will help us -- V is so good, an acquisition is seemingly inevitable.
As an Ireland company, a BO must be voted by shareholders (quite a few years ago I voted "yes" for BO of Elan). Can we receive the ticket in May? Hard to guess. AMRN may be stubborn enough to GIA. However, GIA takes a longer way to achieve the peak but makes more for shareholders.
I love Sam's data.
Not because it reflects current RX (no matter what kind of system, errors always there), but its consistence, i.e., reliability or comparability.
I am following Sam's data for about five years. It is a clear picture of what happened, and also provides a space to extrapolating or modifying.
I like the data Raf posted. If it is close to Sam's, then RX numbers has a bigger move (then previous) last week.
Data is a gold mine. Digging it, my could get rich. However, you could keep your hand empty if the market treats you bad or you are too ......
Thank you Sam.
As a fact, I made $M from buying (long-term + low strike) options of GOOD STOCKs.
The key is "GOOD STOCKS". And, I believe AMRN, with Vascepa and RI data, is a GOOD STOCK. Before 2021 Jan, a lot of good things will happen on AMRN. I even don't know whether the symbol "AMRN" will exist till then (we all know that a buy-out is in sight).
Sorry for "2012“, I mean 2022.
OPTIONS is not an angel nor a ghost. It is a tool of investing, and you handle it. Handling well, you earn.
The worst is anxiety -- anxiously to earn hugr without hard homework.
For a good object, longer term and lower strike (means more premium) usually give you good rewards.
For sure, AMRN is a very good one (if not the best). But for AMRN options expiring in April, I don't think one can make something huge. But with enough longer term, e.g. 2012 Jan $20 Call, I expect the return will amazing you.