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What I am stating is that given the volatility driven into the performance history it can be expected again. Other than the TA associated with the chart that I posted is the phenominal market manipulation that has occured. History tends to repeat itself and the chart I posted indicates it is poised to do the same again.
As for probabilities that is the art which is associated with the science of TA. An art of which, with GTE, I am an obvious subscriber.
I wouldn't get too hung up on swing trades at this point. Take a step back and look at the broader view. This is in line with the business plan during a "period of profitability and performance" as expected by many. Look at the run up on this 3 year chart over a 14 month time frame. This stock is wound up tight with the indicators most favorable of a repeat of a 13.75 times run-up of current pps to a share price of approximately $17.87. Never mind the additional potential of splits during that time which could easily double in a 2:1 to an equivalent of $35.74 pps at current position.
I think your tin foil hat is allowing those thoughts of yours to stew up some good estimations. In reading the 8-K and the time line associated with the Russian deal I believe there was a delay for speculative reasons with a tertiary benefit of decreased share price so that Cateham can't exercise their option. Leads credence to GTE protecting share interest by the play. Why give it up if the various divisions are performing well and the capital isn't needed?
3 year chart indicates plently of room for move-up.
Business plans are not dictated by market cap. It's dictated by market penetration, which is very small in this sector of Russia. Given that, the $600M was not far fetched. As a business owner you should understand the concept.
In addition, the ambiguous statements you made with reguard to nebulous documents is entirely that.........nebulous.
Here's a link to the new Engineer's web site:
http://www.heininger.com/news.html
Monday's move that I am referring to is the retailer's flip out in the morning. Meanwhile shorties have limit orders as low as they think it will go and then EOD everything balances out.
The only upside that I see in this theory is that after Monday we should see a basis for moving up from that point. For those that have loaded up on powder to buy, GLTYA.
Thanks for posting the SHO reg. It is very transpearant now that this suit although filed a month ago was timed to have a PR on the eve of this dead line.
The move is very clear now. Shake the retailers on panic Monday and the houses clear the books for the shorties without a change in the pps. Un friggin' believable. I sent an e-mail to the law firm but they haven't replied. I asked if I could recieve the collusion procedural manual they are using so I could make money too!
Very good insight. Followed the thread and the theory would be entirely on the "up-and-up". The only thing I am curious about is if the Russians would be considered an insider prohibiting such action? Although I am sure this type of thing goes on all of the time. That's why there are wealthy investors and retailers.
Very true and look at the ADX being at a point of indecision as well.
This used to be the TA board, but look at it now, it's the tabloid of investing.
The greatest thing that has come of the recent events is that us longs now know what we are up against: A highly concerted effort to drive down the price of GTE to a point that either 1) "they" win on a proven upswing (exactly why the reason that shorts make so much money when they find their goldmine if they cover in time) or 2) the balance of the sector undrerstanding exactly what GTE is trying to accomplish and relishing in the fact that shorts are slamming the price.
When I see articles reguarding the "veil of secrecy" on GTE's plan I am absolutely pleased as I would not want everybody to know what the details of the business plan are as it gives them an edge within the sector.
IMHO the shorts are doing everything they can to keep the institutional investors from being able to touch GTE as they know as soon as that occurs they have truly lost control. Anybody notice that when the PPS hit around $4.50 that it plumeted and that we can't seem to get past the top of after the R/S on the AMEX? Coincidence? I think not. I do have to agree with the other posters reguarding Huff's misconception about what shorting can do to the PPS. I believe that he thought that the 15:1 R/S would take care of everything and that is his miscalculation. But it only proves to be a realization of what the comapany's plans for the world are when it occurs!
I have to agree with JAGGER25 -
I too am of the opinion that this PR signaled a floor and the truest forward step to point that the company is serious about moving forward from R&D.
I don't believe that the company will wish to authorize more shares. To do so would be as a result of the following and I will offer the counterpoint afterward:
1. To finance further R&D.
2. To finance operations.
3. To finance both R&D and Operations through private investor.
Counterpoint.........
1. All of the prior points still must be expensed out! Meaning that it will still prove to the bottom line of the share value rather than taking the expense which will reduce the corporate income tax!
Today's PR was truly a turningpoint in this company.
Great chart Starboy-
If you look at the RSI for the last lows we are at the same levels. My opinion on the shorts slowly covering needs to be expanded upon.........
The CMF is still in the red. The pps is at a position for a good lower bolly bounce. The earliest indicators of the shorts adding actual shares is seeing the CMF slowly turn up towards green.
The ADX is confirming a bear with the rise in the DI- and all other indicators support what we are seeing now as being fact and not market manipulation. GTE has a tendency to hold on MA's. If you overlay a 200MA you can see that we are still well above that and the 200MA has been the only consistent upward trend indicator.
My guess at this point, barring rookie CEO mistakes, is that the bolly squeeze will lead into a 200MA bounce upward on both parts as I am sure the new COB is itching to get some news out. Look for the CMF to level off in the red and start turning to the green. DI- should confirm by leveling off.
In addition watch the slow MACD line as it is still above the fast. If this were a dive, both would be pointing south. I'm holding to the bolly and 200MA bounce. This is setting up for a repeat.
BTW run the Ultimate Oscillator on the 3 year.......looking for conflicts here that prove the short slow cover. TIA!
change your settings to weekly and it should show up, by the looks of it you are on daily.........hope that helps
The only thing I see on that 3 year chart is the ADX confirming upward with all of the other indicators showing the squeeze. It's very interesting. Need to run an Ultimate Oscillator to see what is happening...........
The last chart was weekly but I will do the MA you posted some time later.......time to give the kids a bath!
A lot of people were talking about the BB squeeze shortly before coming over to the AMEX in late 2005. If you notice the squeeze is on again now that the MA50 is broken. If you look at the "bounce" that is anticipated on the MA200 with expected PR's in the few months to come you can see where the next outside upper BB is anticipated.
As a note...anytime you see the lower BB completely go off the chart it is an indication of a bull market with no underlying support being found until accumulation begins again.
IMHO this is lining up to be a repeat of late Oct. 2005 to late Dec. 2005 move-up. I still hold to my analysis that shorts are closing or covering a position slowly at this time with nervous retailers trading their money to them.
Well said pit-
AMEX = more reliable exchange = more substantive PR's = less PR's = nervousness for longs due to past history on the OTC = more significant PR's = more significant effect +/- on PPS.
Good job Design!!!
Labador IMO presented the triple low as a negative counting on some savy posters not doing TA. I've been looking at the same but believe the breakout will be above $4.49.
If you stretch out the chart for GTE to a 3 year period you will see more of what I am looking at.
Again, great TA!
Wolfrun-
Reread the post. I never stated that the shorts haven't covered. If I were a short I would be covering now slowly. Be careful trying to put words in people's mouths as you just posted a completely untrue statement.
That's exactly it Cab...the perspective on the pps is relative. What has occured since the R/S is that shorts are able to cover at what would have been an ask at .1437625. Now what MM, even on the OTC, would have traded that price?
Hence it is easier for a short to make money on the AMEX and is the market basis for my earlier posts.
TA wise we are below the lower BB. If I were shorting this would be the time that I covered slowly. The key is slowly because you don't want to put too much pressure on the ask with retailers jumping on the bid.
As lowtrade posted a couple of weeks ago, the retailers are simply trading money and giving it to the shorts.
As to the trend lines.........
IMO, as observed by others, the MM's are playing to whom ever is in the market with the pps. Any movement is greater assurance that the swing will produce greater returns. If the volume is light and the pps is drifting downwards, who could cause this market action?
1. Retailers that took a position back on the OTC covering their initial investment.
2. Shorts on the bid taking out a position for accumulation for long/swing trade.
Looking at the most recent trend lines that I have identified. (Depending on the drift downwards) We are looking at a short term swing position with shorts covering with a cover at around $2.00 to $2.25 and then sell that position at around $3.90 to $4.50. This would make more an easy short swing for a 100% profit. I'll offer an example below:
A short sells 1,000 shares in December of 2005 on margin for $4.00. The margin account is now in debt for $4,000.
The short is covered in mid February of 2006 at $2.75 or an actual cost (money placed in the account) at $2,750.
The short then sells that position in early March of 2006 for $3.50 for a profit of $750 or 27.2% in three months.
Perform this well four times a year that is a compounded annual return for 100+%.
So, IMO, what we are seeing here is another accumulation period for a short covering a position for a three month 25%+ return. The only thing that could sweeten the pot is the PR trump and the like. 2006 from a business plan perspective is a repeat of 2005 for the shorties rather than the retailers. What we all need to do here is put our heads together to confirm through TA.
Wolfrun-
I have to completely disagree with you. The pattern indicated by "Justfrank" is simply another tool to indicate another OTC type short term swing. If you notice his trend line does not capture the volume candle in the first to second third of the graph and second anytime the pps broke the MA10 and then spiked above the MA20 it singled a swing entry on the MA10 and then exit on the MA20. RSI and ADX both confirm in such instances.
IMO we are still dealing with OTC patterns with AMEX influences such as SHO and the like. It is simply a 15/1 variance on the pps.
Reading "Justfrank's" chart from yesterday (4/4) it simply is more tools for the TA trader to use for an AMEX swing. To me this is signaling a buy on a 15% to 100% swing.
Hmmmmmmmmmm...........just what the "Shorties" ordered!
Low, I've been looking over GTE's 6 mos. chart and it is rather evident that ADX is simply an emotion monitor for a day-trade like swing.
More specifically the aroon(8) has just turned positive with the MACD slow finally crossing the fast. I'm curious if a PR next week will push this over given the spinning top and 200MA bounce possibility.
I still think GTE is a reliable a BB swing. I've been working on exit confirmation on a swing looking at the BB and the other indicators. Most of those that I communicate with do consider the short squeeze influence but feel that it only is within the MM service parameters for those customers.
What's your take? TIA
Last year's annual meeting. Sometime in the summer/fall of 2005.
ROTF...LMAO.....I just checked on the GTE TA board and some cat named "pitbull" just wrote a first (that I have seen) I-Hub obituary............
Well just read GTE's 10k and letter from the CEO. Finally, I get their focus........."to provide a private world-wide-web". I have to think about this one over the weekend in developing a strategy for 2006. The CEO's statement may sound simple on the surface but it does have some huge ramifacations as to a back-up or underground to the current web.
Of coarse they pretty much cut and pasted the strat. statement from last year about this time with reference to the second airship.
Haven't had time for OTC stocks lately so I need to give some thought on GTE for some solid swings in 2006.............
I'ld be happy with (3) 25% swings this year on GTE given that it is currently trading in at what I averaged in at.
With GTE, IMO the shorts are having a field day. Sort of a bad kharma for all of the PPS run-up on the OTC related to simple PR's. Personally this current channel bottom is right at my entry point so I'm not too worked up. There is still a lot of time left in 2006 to exit on a volatility spike for at least a 25% gain.
TIA everybody. What's the inside track, opinion, on GTE? I still have a position but have been ignoring it since the promotion. Looks like a major short squeeze from the pseudo-TA.
Recently I have 'a friend' that originally turned me on to GTE convey that 2006 is either the year to truly hold long or dump on a PR spike.
Has Steve been able to retire yet? LOL. One of my co-workers recently retired and is now an 'option day trader'. We've been having coffee once a week so I could learn the ropes with options. VERY RISKY............!!!!!!!!!!
Hey Lap......
Long time no 'post' LOL. Sorry I've been away for a while. With a new promotion at work I haven't had the time lately for active trading/posting. Getting settled in now, so I can enjoy the fray once again!
Thanks for the chart........
I still believe that there is a swing analysis pattern to follow. If you go to the 6 monthly chart and run a simple 200MA and 50MA with a BB 20,2.0 you will see that when the PPS is in a BB squeeze and then breaks the 50MA and upper BB within the same month, the PPS will signal an exit outside of the BB within a 3 to 4 month run. The exit is singaled with a candlestick pattern of spinning tops and bear tops. What we need to look for is other indicators for an entry and exit to confirm.
IMO what we are looking at is wider swing patterns with a difference of weeks on the OTC to months on the AMEX. The only unceartainty I have at this time is the effect of the RS on the charts with the exchange change and bold statements by the CEO for performance within 2006.
Running this out I am seeing on the bottom channel with the PR trump effect of around $3.05 within the next couple of weeks. All IMHO!
I completely agree with Low and Mide in that for those that have been following execution expect more in the MBO (management by objectives) approach to SH information.
The upside I saw in today's e-mail is that it is an attempt to create a buzz on the street (no double meaning to Cramer's business). This could very well be IR's attempt to let current share holder's rest assure and load up on a relative channel bottom. Which in effect could create a street talk on the stock.
This being the first attempt by IR on this approach is worth seeing how it plays out. A little pressure on keeping this information for those on the mail list is definately worth while though!
Incredible find pit! This was very well put together with the teledensity data at the end of the statement. This confirms IMHO that the short attack was staged to buy competitors to GTE more time in these emerging markets.
I read a statement once by Bill Gates that he was more concerned with the small and nimble competitors rather than the 800 pound gorillas for their adaptability.
Look like GTE is getting into the driver's seat in this market because of their nibleness.
Keep in mind that options are equally diluted with the O/S shares with the exception of class A warrants. There you will find the paper trail.
It's amazing how this subject keeps coming up. Bottom line is the PPS won't catch up until the EPS does. We're looking at 2 years minimum before it is driven in that manner. IMO the best situation we are hoping for is two fold:
1. A pattern that will enable a retailer to spot a swing trend for what ever the motive.
2. Splits in the speculative move up and for those that purchased post ADGI days on the OTC to see a significant enhancement in position value in the same manner that the "Vegas investors" have expierienced. (I use the term "Vegas investors" as a tongue-in-cheek as I wish with this stock I was as aggressive as those of you out there reading this having a position since then)
I just read this for the second time........incredible information!!!!
Any organization after 9/11 or Katrina are looking for individuals with those qualifacations. Most of us are on trunked systems or alternating PL's and in search of replacement technology.
On site programming and platform support from WiMAX is the logical technology is steering to. If you're unsure of the jargon "dB" refers to decibles which is something your lawn mower puts out. In this instance it is the stability of the WiMAX platform since the antenea hardware has not caught up with the software.
Essentially they are looking for somebody that has expierience in taking the "tin can on a string" located on the earth's surface that knows how to connect it a higher band width for data transmission. I have 2 former military members on staff with expierience in this area.
This is nothing special.
Exactly my sentiment Low.........
On the BB who do you play to? Retail volume generators.
On a higher exchange who do you play to? "Ask" with significant influence on the CMF, no doubt the institutions and fund managers. Hence the conflicting buy signal you posted recently.
IMO what we are looking at is wider swing time lines and we should restructure the TA to look at indicators utilized by managers that don't have the time to look into short term sentiment driven indicators.
Ever played with the "ultimate oscilattor"? It may be the time to pull this one out.