Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Sorry inaccurate from memory. The Stock was Celator symbol CPPX which in two months rose from $1.68 to $30.25 on May 31st 2016. But it did so just as I described in two breakaway gaps. First on was 10x and the second one a few weeks later from the teens approx $15-18 to $30.25. But shot as high as $36.
Ok I will go with that. It might then cause a double breakaway gap like CPPX about 10 years ago. First gapping from $0.36 to $18 for a few weeks then gapping again to $36 on the buyout.
If you are not knowlegable on such deals I would suggest you research the 2018 deal between Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals with JNJ which resulted in an increase in Arrowheads Market Cap to rise from $200 mil to $7 Billion in 18 months.
I am expecting a similar result with NWBO within 18 months. Been there done that with Arrowhead and Anavex. For reasons often expounded on this board BP, especially Merck, can not afford to NOT partner with NWBO.
Pity the small thinkers. I know for a fact that he is a successful trader and battle hardened as well. I have been with him in a very similarly HFT short seller controlled stock that finally broke the grip of the short sellers and rose from $1.26 to $30 plus in 18 months. That stock still trades in the $10 handle 800% up from the short selling induced lows of Dec 2018.
Oh I agree my comment was the minimum that NWBO would need to up list to a major exchange for that they could sell to BP and much smaller slice say .045 (4.5%) of the shares or 60 million shares at anywhere from $2.5 to $20 resulting in cash to NWBO $150 M to $1.2 B. Thereby no SEC SC 13D required. NWBO could then covertly do a surprise up list to NASAQ. One could argue that once NWBO is temporarily trading as NWBOD during the days of transition it would be very hard or impossible to initiate new short positions. What better time to drop the Bomb and finally announce the BP partnership/investment? Cash position shored up and short sellers grip and control of NWBO's share price and ability to raise cash in the market destroyed in a one - two punch.
Sound reasoning and correct deductions. This post is Golden. Only variance I have is current value to a BP as $15 B to $30 B based on compatible recent deals but I would be happy with $12 B to $15 B for a smaller portion of my shares and wait for higher prices to further diversify.
I believe that one of the reasons that the larger market, that is institutional investors, are not seeing this and investing maybe because NWBO is trading on the OTC and does not have an investment grade balance sheet. Once these impediments to Institutional investing are removed they my jump in with both feet allowing the impatient retail to sell with a tidy profit to Institution and set up NWBO to grow to a mid Cap biotech in the medium term of 5 years or less. Long term might be astounding. Those shareholders buying at current prices are as venture capital with a very favorable risk/reward ratio. Once the risk part of the equation is reduced to investment grade the stock prices will be geometrically higher but risk/reward ratio still favorable as the long term outlook will be greatly improved. It will just take a lot of money to establish a meaningful position in NWBO. Which the Insitutions have. Invest later to maintain and grow wealth, invest now to establish wealth but with a higher risk that is unacceptable to those wanting to maintain and grow wealth.
A BP partnership with an investment is the preferred shares that values NWBO at $2 a share or more would almost certainly gap the share price close to $2 overnight. From there it might run up hard and fast even with zero shares sold short. Anyone that continues the short selling game with NWBO is playing hot potato with wet dynamite.
The question of what price the BP would pay for the investment shares may depend on the Journal Publication. I do not expect that investment to come before the Journal or some other development that substantially raises the share price. The price that NWBO should agree to should be enough the generate more than $20 million in shareholders equity so I see the deal as the BP paying Cash of a minimum $25 million on signing together with a sizable purchase of the Preferred shares. This would give NWBO the ability to up list to a major exchange which is absolutely necessary to ensure long term survival and access to market capital of which NWBO has been denied partly do to the actions of HFT short selling entities. NWBO needs to have its shares radically revalued upwards by a Large Breakaway Gap to break the grip of these short selling entities so NWBO can obtain fair access to the Captital Markets, the ability to raise further funds by issuing shares in the future.
if some BP or Large Investor buy a big chunk of perfereds and sets the NWBO price permently above $2 as you say then how would that not cause a concomitant short squeeze. If there is s huge short position it would cause a huge squeeze. If no meaningful sized
short position then no meaningful sized squeeze except that the shorts that do exist could be wiped out.
Gary, I agree with this and is not only possible but highly probable. Merck is already in bed with NWBO with the Keytuda combo trial therefore Merck has seen NWBO naked and executed Non disclosure agreements. We will soon see if this was a one night stand or leads to a meaningful relationship.
Does any one have a reasonable calculation of the time line to see TLD from the Keytruda combo trial?
The preferred shares used for a BP partnership or Large Fund purchase at a much higher revalued price/MCap might generate the $20 Mil shareholder equity and share price to allow up list to a major exchange. This might cause a break away gap and dramatic run up in the share price as NWBO continues development on both regulatory and manufacturing fronts. This could quickly transform NWBO to a mid cap biotech on a major exchange.
Early investors and new investors buying at these current prices might be in the position as the venture capitalist are to investments successful pre-IPO Biotechs.
The Preferred Shares might be an instrument to allow Parntering and up listing simultaneously. I am venturing on a break away gap and substantially increasing my position for a very long term hold.
The question investors should ask themselves is what is the current fair market value of NWBO accounting for both the risks and potentials if NWBO was trading on a major exchange. NWBO seems extremely undervalued given its potential and how far along it is in manufacturing. This situation can not be sustained indefinitely. It may be that there are large short selling interests that are HFT trading constently buy-cover and then reshorting small portions of their short positions many times a day to suppress the prices to keep their large short positions in the money. They have the tools of HTF algos and a large pool of short shares to dictate the share price.
NWBO needs access to Capital which the short sellers have been restricting that access for years. To gain access to Capital NWBO needs to partner up with a BP together Preferred Stock investment by the BP at a much higher price thereby Gapping the share price and breaking the short sellers rolling short selling grip on the stock. This should be followed very quickly by an up list to a major exchange the allow institutional investors to buy into the newly valued venture.
I imagine the stock based compensation was a huge factor in attracting such high caliber talent. One would think they negotiated to be paid in stock. The stock base price at time of award forms the cost basis and appreciation would then be taxed at LT Cap Gains rate If held for a year and only when they sold it. Amazing tax benefits.
Ask the rank and file at Microsoft that were paid partly in stock when it was a young company how it turned out for them. Those that held were all mega millionaires. That was an important reason for Microsoft's ability to get the very best software engineers and the brightest from Stanford and Berkley. Which was no small factor in the mega success at Microsoft.
Leronlimab to treat Monkeypox. Think about LL MOA. Look how all the Monkeypox testing Companies are running as well.
Michael Bigger?
Brilliant if the goal is to squeeze the Stock price to the buyout price or partnership with investment price. Or even to squeeze it to an uplift price with the minimum stock holder equity value requirement being met by the capital raised through selling the preferred at a much high cost after the event that causes a drastic upward valuation of the stock.
Is the NWBO ship approaching the Harbour? On the horizon flashes of light are seen in the darkest night. As dawn approaches the tide is rising. S.S. Northwest Bio may indeed be weighing anchor now to come to dock in the safe harbour. For Yee that have waited so long hark your ship approaches.
100% agree.
As Mark Cuban says "Diversification is for Idiots" I would say more precisely that diversification should be used to preserve wealth. Jerry Jones became a billionaire on a single investment. The Dallas Cowboys but he had to start with millions. Now the Microsoft multimillionaires just started out working for Microsoft and taking part of their salary is stock so the company could use more funds to grow. Those software engineers saw what was happening and so being in on the ground floor bought more and more stock in Microsoft only because they were privy to the inner workings. One stock- clear vision of the Company.
I see NWBO as a Company with clear vision - laser focused on the goals. Being privy to the knowledge shared on this board and blessed by the fruits of the short sellers bitter attacks I have been able to parlay earlier biotech successes into a concentrated position in NWBO.
The biggest mistakes I ever made in investing was selling to early for small 100% profits. Other mistakes were getting in too soon. Gilead sold too soon. Plug Power and Ballard in 20 years too soon. Now starting to bear fruit. Disruptive Companies invested in at the right time. This time I feel is right for expanding NWBO holdings. I watched for eight years and was tempted by the prices in the teens but instead of buying low and selling for 100% I waited until is stated jumping and accumulate d over a few years. Still buying and liking Michael Biggers style on this ONE STOCK.
My goal is to hold NWBO until it is paying quarterly dividends in excess of or multiples of my cost basis. Generational hold periods create generational wealth. I inherited a certain blue chip Dow Bellweather stock Holding where my parents cost basis was under a dollar. I got the allowed no taxstep up in cost basis but their cost basis was under a dollar. It was paying dividend of $4.72 and traded at 150 x their cost basis. They never paid taxes on that gain because they had it in a trust that passed to there children tax free. Besides that one Blue Chip stock they had no other individual stock just small mutual fund holdings. The one correct stock held for long enough time can result in generational wealth. Buying only Microsoft in the 1980s or 1990s would have done even better or NIKE in the 1970s.
When and if NWBO is successful many will sell along the initial hockey stick parabolic move. As Windows was a paradigm shift in computing DVAX-L might be a paradigm shift in cancer treatment. Microsoft is well beyond the initial indication of PCs. NWBO might expand well beyond brain cancer.
Dale would serve his shareholding best by getting representation on the BOD to help engineer the turn around. HGEN reminds me of an old saying attributed to Baron Rothchild "Buy when there is blood in the streets even if it is your own." The mistake was and was a common mistake by many companies including Merck and J&J but absolutely devastating to smaller companies was trying to contribute something to the Covid War when not on the inside of the Washington/Pharmacutical corruption game as perfected by Gilead under Donald Rumsfeld. Gilead seems to behave like a Racketeering Organization that just happens to have Rx Drugs as its racket. The Remdesivir fiasco certainly makes Gilead look like a RICO. When Washington is in with the RICOs it is best to stay out of the way. Merck recognized it and bowed out early. J&J was the only approved vaccine produced by Company/Private finances. Now the J&J vaccine is being "Sun-setted". The others were all funded by Washington and directed by bureaucrats with financial rewards to benefit themselves.
We already had the "news" change in management is causing a shift from negative sentiment to positive sentiment. This is much better than some passing news that might cause a temporary spike followed by drop back to the trending lower on the same overall negative sentiment. Positive sentiment should bring slow steady price appreciation which is the best for LT investors. Traders prefer the pops and drops to buy and sell.
That is right. Do not fight a wounded Lion when it is backed into a corner. Shorts may gloat but if they do not back out now they could get mauled.
So many 100000 share buys on Time & sales I could not count them all. CYDY is under massive accumulation by institutions or there is massive short covering by big players.
Two huge block trades of 289000 shares and 236000 shares spotted @$.75 ten minutes before the close.
Nice post Doctor. An FDA or other regulatory approval does not equal wide spread adoption. If a Company has a tool then first they need to convince the users of the tool that it has utility. So ultimately the goal is to convince the front line of Oncology Care Providers that the tool has utility. Therefore the Journal Article is paramount whether or not it comes before or after regulatory approval. Regulatory approval does not make something "State of the Art" but rather the the adoption of the Art by the Artists makes it so. Regulatory approval is crucial but adoption by Physicians is where the "Rubber Meets the Road." Why file for regulatory approval before those that will use it are asking access to this new technology. The Journal Article while not necessary for approval is crucial for adoption of the technology.
Nice post. Set the trap and forget about it.
Yes. I think there is evidence of that kind of periodic pumps and dumps by Hedge Funds and Family Office type funds going on for years in many small cap stocks.
And a believe that is some stocks the sell point at a certain level where they start the dump is done not just for the short term trading opportunity but also to condition retail and other investors or traders to join the dump at the levels they capped the spikes at times before. I have thought for a long time that was going on with NWBO. It is a Pavlov's Dog type of market psychology. These naked short positions are likely very long term holdings as in ten years.
Thanks for bringing that up. I am sure LP is aware this as well.
$.8144 was a glitch
NWBO trading $.8144 premarket on 1.2 million shares. Up 19% What's up or is them is bad info.?
There are two classes of shareholders the powerless common and the privileged warrant and option holders. Management as the privileged are myopic to the plight of the common.
One might surmise these progression are made to benefit the members of the Country Club NWBO wa.st j*
I totally agree with that and would add that management does a less than stellar job of financing.
That is exactly correct. The true value of these small Biotechs are disconnected from the market price due to the fact that short sellers do damage to the company by offers to sell short the naked float at times that the company is trying to raise capital by selling actual newly minted shares. This can depress the price to extreme levels and in many cases completely destroy the company. The trick is to value the company through
DD and to slowly accumulate over many years with expectations one should be prepared to hold for at least 5 years to realize that value. An important aspect of choosing a biotech is not only the Tech, Science, and IP but also the ability of the company to navigate and survive the regulatory desert, the long stretches of time that money is tight and price suppressed by phantom counterfeit shares being sold short to compete with actual shares being sold by the company to raise cash. I place a 5 year price target greater than $40 billion but the market cap could explode upwards on any day with out of the blue news like a partnership.
Boeing traded under buck in the 1970s.
If one has conviction in the direction of the science and likelihood of approval should one not celebrate the low price and accumulate more stock in NWBO?
NWBO at $.69 is like well Boeing at $120.00 . Lots of value in the markets these days. Buy Boeing and wait 5 years or buy NWBO and wait 5 months.
All I can say brother is you are a Prince. I appreciate all you do as a voice of reason to negate the FUD. Logic should always rule for long term investments. Why one should ask that one little company should be the target of so much negatively? Indeed, who owns the Ox that will be gored?
Agreed and NWBO does not need a French-Algerian Mafioso to bring value to to the platform. Although Brad was being facious with the Biogen comment. No one knows when NWBO will be fairly market priced. It could be reflected soon as Monday and as late as sequential quarters of increasing earnings after RA. Good God. Boeing is trading at $127. A duopoly that plans 50 years in the future. NWBO a monopoly that trades at under $1.00? Wow quarterly dividends might exceed that in as little as 5 years.
Silver Star! NWBO is under cowardly mortar attack. The best they can do is dig in until they are reinforced by the journal publication and subsequent regulatory victories.
That Fire sale will not happen Brad. We will fight on.
Thank you Biosectinvestor for being a voice of reason.