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Volume is doubling every 5 minute candle as CYDY ascends.
The news will strike Mach+ therefore without warning as is will fly in faster than the sonic boom it leaves in its wake.
No ono fell for the absurd rants of the shirts. F stands for FDA and Fridays. This Friday or next Friday the EUA on Leronlimab likely to be announced.
CytoDyn is one of only 3 allowed to finish the trials. I believe also the only one to allowed to finish without modifications. Absolutely the only one to have been granted open-label extension where all placebo patients were then given the Leronlimab.
It is a near-lock for some type of EUA.
CytoDyn end game might result in multiday gap-up runs that might dwarf the June 2020 runs. Breakaway gap and run. Not the usual one gap and fade. No way out. CYDY might gap up way past any reasonable buy/stops with no long call options available to hedge this extreme risk. The only way I can see to hold short CYDY and mitigate risk would be to have 3x or 4x long positions in Humanagen and Relief that should get a sympathetic sharp share price rise when CytoDyn explodes upwards.
I believe the FDA will shift gears from foot dragging on the HIV indication to all deliberate speed on the critical Covid indication. The question now is likely partly ethical considerations of which patients get it first using the current supply. I expect the results and EUA will be announced together and CYDY will go on a share price run of successive up gaps.
CytoDyn has a quirky CEO and has led many to underestimate the value of the company due to set backs.
One should realize the reluctance of the FDA in HIV was due to the novel MOA so very different from current approaches in HIV and only an incremental improvement over current treatments. In critical Covid
only Dexamethasone and the prognosis is poor with unacceptable fatality and ICU rates. Leronlimab may not be a "Silver Bullet" but it is critically needed effective ammunition for doctors and hospitals in the critical Covid patients. Those Leronlimab shots can't miss because of the safety profile.
Good post. Yes I agree this is the most likely. It should be expected that when a treatment is so radically different in approach that it is essentially a paradigm shift that the FDA would take a close look at how to apply the new disruptive solution. The facts of these results if they bear any resemblence to the EIND patients should be undeniable and compelling. The FDA will act to make Leronlimab available for those that need it most. A primary decision initially will be to determine which patients will be given the drug due to the initial limited supply.
I recall one of the Doctors involved with treating
Covid patients with Leronlimab saying that it would be a homerun in Covid.
CVM and if successful NWBO will rise is sympathy. If CVM fails NWBO will also rise as new buyers come in. I M O the great majority of NWBO shareholders are not likely to sell before TLD therefore the only thing lacking for NWBO to rise is lack of new buyers willingly to take risk on long position in NWBO. The believers are here already and not selling. Any new interest in NWBO for any reason prior to TLD could result in a steep price rise.
CYDY will get a huge burst upwards today. Expecting a short cover rally due to the anti-short action in Game Stop and others causing a liquidity issue with the short selling Mafia. They may need to cover short positions in other stocks as they are under pressure in GME AMC KOSS and others where the battle against short positions are raging.
Ah ok.I get it. If the virus is not multiplying not reproducing then it is not mutating. The more it is allowed to reproduce the more chances of mutating. Thanks I knew I could count on you to give the straight answer.
I am no expert but something you wrote made me think of hospital acquired multi-drug resistant super bacteria. Those bacteria evolved in patients given the best and strongest drugs to combat the infections. They evolved or mutated to forms that are resistant to all existing drugs. Might the Sars Covid 2-19 evolve or mutate to a form that can not be affected by the vaccines for the very reason that such a large percent of the population will have the vaccine? Maybe only people at risk of serious complications from Covid should be vaccinated.
On another note if a entirely new virus equal in scope and devastation but so different if form that science needs to start from scratch on vaccines do we go through this process of quarantine again destroying economies while we develop a whole new set of vaccines?
Also do the mRNA vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna alter the natural immune system in such a way that the immune system can readily discern and attack the Covid viruses but now lack abilities against other novel viruses? For instance something as highly contagious and dangerous as TB.
These new vaccines modify the immune system in ways we may not know for sometime and are not like the traditional "dead virus" vaccines.
The human population might breed mutations that do not harm the humans but could spread to livestock and wipe out food supplies for millions of people causing famine. Swine flu is a serious problem in Asian countries many places have soaked rugs one must walk across to kill the virus from feet when entering a a new shore or area to protect the pigs that they rely on as food supply.
Covid vaccine development was all so rush rush that it might be a Pandora's Box.
Might a better solution be the traditional vaccines that do not modify the immune system along with effective therapeutics like Leronlimab that block viral replication and is not virus specific?
Lots of questions about these new vaccines along with some disturbing news of serious AEs in a small number of subjects but how large will those AEs be when administered to hundreds of millions of people.
It seems to me that Fauci has chosen the most slippery slope to climb to approach this problem.
Add a couple of not widely known but no secret either facts. Likely counterfeit shares several hundred percent sold short, phantom shares. Then the fact that some RICO connected hedge funds have big clients many offshore that are Russian Mafia, NY Mafia, Drug Cartels and possibly even Terrorist groups laundering money at same time damaging USA Companies. Now think who could have the billions of "care free" funds to finance an Operation like this. Lets call it "Operation Roaring Kitty" is it really funded by a bunch of young playful Reddit kittens?
The Short selling Mafia flash crashed the entire stock market in Feb 2016 with a HFTrading short attack on Boeing. Why did they not chose Apple if they wanted to crash the market? That made it not only a threat against Main Street USA but also a credible threat to National Security of the United States.
This Operation did not start until after the Inauguration even though the threat should have been known since 2016.
So who is really behind Operation Roaring Kitty? Maybe it is Janice Joplin's Group?
To that I say...it is about time!
Since it went right back up it was most likely a naked short selling high frequency trading attack. Legalized Racketeering in the Stock market as these big HTF trading firms own the Congress. They are by far the largest political contributors. So you vote for your politicians then they are bought off by the Wall Street Mafia (legalized) so Wall Street really runs the country and they control and oppress with the very money they steal from main streét people by market racketeering.
That is dead on, on all points.
Peet's whole bean is definitely my choice in coffee as well. I would be honored to have a cup with you some day.
As far as flipping for Alpha I have learned to invest in leveraged ETNs and let the professionals at Credit Suisse do the flipping for me. That way I can enjoy my Peet's and market returns with little stress.
Market talking heads say Gold and Silver do not generate income. They are the ones that need an education.
There was a time that I used covered calls in AVXL to collect extra juice on the stock. As a said before this recent rise I thought that time has passed due to Congessional stimulus and the resulting rolling short squeezes in the market.
It is said that in later stages of a bull market "the market climbs a wall of worry" I believe what could happen is the market climbs higher on the short interest "insurance premiums" paid by hedge funds by the classic short hedge for the goal of wealth preservation of the clients.
So for a market top would need capitulation of those short positions just as a market bottom needs capitulation of a lot of long positions.
Short interest in XBI and IBB are currently astoundingly high as they climb higher and higher. As for the whole market Berkshire Hathaway currently has extremely high short interest, so I expect the market to keep climbing that "wall of worry." Therefore I believe the bull market in biotech like AVXL and many others will continue for some time.
Yes that is a worthwhile strategy and I have accumulated stock that way. Selling both the puts and the calls for the same date. The only thing is it locks up capital until expiration. Over the years there have been a lot of Short attacks in AVXL so I preserved capital to buy the short attack. I learned early on when AVXL was on OTC that the short attacks could be relied on for accumulation.
There have been lots of mornings in AVXL that were very similar to the stop loss running short attacks like CYDY had this beautiful Monday morning. Any stock consistently bashed has these types of great opportunities for discount accumulation.
I have a feeling the "Vampires of the Short Cabal" are not done trying to suck some blood from unsuspecting AVXL retail with the very visible to market maker stop loss orders.
Good point. Most people get that backwards and trade in ordinary accounts instead of retirement accounts where the tax implications are much more favorable. I suppose the rational is "I don't want to risk retirement money" To that I say then why risk money AND get taxed on the gains and limited deductions of losses in normal accounts. My point was all my AVXL in normal accounts is LT cap gains at 10X so I would be a fool to flip.
Think of the low bar set by the FDA in the case of Remdesivir. In 3 weeks EUA could be granted even if results are trending toward Sat Sig. That was the EUA test that justified Remdesivir EUA. Good results it is a lock for EUA trending to Sat Sig could also result in EUA.
Looks like it was a preplanned short attack with the SA article as cover. I have seen this play out in Anavex Life Sciences over the last 5 plus years. Look at AVXL now. It was under constent short attack just like CYDY and NWBO.
This is the same as the Citron attack June 30th.
Read the SEC rule. A company has 3 days to publish by way of an 8k any materially adverse events. ...Does not say positive or neutral events.
Market acceptance of Avanex potential should cause a market cap increase to $5 to $7 billion or more. That might and should happen before any approvals, in fact I think that it is happening now. It could be slow or it could flash over, to use Nidian's apt description.
But that is hard to predict as far as timing.
I usually look for biotechs that are either ignored, misunderstood or actively bashed. Arrowhead and it's gene silencing tech was ignored and Wall Street pumped gene editing tech. Sage was ignored, depression was too tough a nut to crack. Anavex actively bashed and shorted , all the BPs had failed so Wall Street said it would fail but pumped AXON. (Oppenheimer had AXON on its conviction buy list! haha)
Northwest Bio was incessantly bashed and shorted down to sub $0.30 but may be on the cusp of completely shifting the cancer treatment paradigm.
CytoDyn is and was incessantly bashed shorted and ridiculed but may have the most useful and widely applicable mAb in history.
If I had the time I would like to back test a number of stocks that that ignoramus AF of STAT News actively and incessently bashed. AVXL was a favorite AF target now it is 10X from December 2018 lows with at least another 10X to go. CYDY and NWBO the Ignorant One's other favorite targets are both up 10X from around a year ago with at least another 10X to go for both of them.
I had to do hard work to find Anavex, Arrowhead and Sage. But AFs consistent bashing of Anavex led me to CytoDyn and Northwest Bio. Up big time in all of The Night Joker of Biotech's three favorite targets. It seems one can get the best clues on the Companies to do deep DD on just by keying on the what AF is most vehemently and incoherently attacking.
Another AF back test; I found out long after the fact that the CEO of Arrowhead Research was on AF list of worst Biotech CEOs back in the day.
How ironic that three companies that AF wrote the most negative articles on might end up being One Hundred Baggers.
To quote that other dweeb Anavex basher, JFinn in Dallas, "You can not make this stuff up."
I would say that it would not be smart or intelligent to trade options for profit, for me at least. I will use them in the classical way which I believe is to mitigate risk in individual stocks.
If one wants to profit on derivative trades there are ETNs available where professionals from Credit Suisse, for instance, do all the options trading in the fund. I suppose some might like the gambling thrill of options.
Not me but I do not flip stocks I spent over 5 years accumulating. Plenty of others to flip for ordinary income tax treatment. At some point Anavex will take the steep trajectory to present fair value which I think should be $3 billion plus right now just on present developments as a Company with several registrational trials recruiting.
In December 2018 when AVXL was trading below $1.50 I liquidated my blue chips opened a soloK and loaded all into AVXL at average price of $1.37. I placed a present value of the stock at that time of $36-$42. AVXL is currently being revalued hard to guess when it happens. When the happened to another one of my under the radar biotechs Arrowhead it 5X'd in just a few months;$13 to $70 plus within 6-8 months.
Sage Therapeutics even mooned higher $30 to $180 in eighteen months. Both Arrowhead and Sage started a steep assent well before any approvals.
Possibly but that would not fit their M.O. of what they discuss on CNBC which is options trading. They like volatility for the options trading. I suspect for their investment accounts they would go with less risk as they have a lot of exposure to risk with options trading. Starting with this Friday AVXL now has weekly Options so perhaps that along with inherent volatility in biotech that would be a draw to AVXL options. Long term prospects of a Stock to options traders beyond the expiration horizons may mean little to traders of those derivatives. Options trading as regular income is more akin to day trading where the company is no more than a "ticker."
Actually touting of AVXL by CNBC gives me pause rather than refreshing my positive convictions regarding Anavex.
People in China do not watch the news because they know it is propaganda. Back testing of CNBC leads me to believe that, unless they are reinforcing FAANG+M where a huge percentage of the market is hiding, CNBC is unreliable at best. IMO CNBC besides wanting to gather eyes for its sites and broadcasts to further its interests in advertising revenue may also engage for propaganda.
While I do not actively engage in market timing this CNBC article gives me a reason to wait before further accumulation of AVXL. I do not need reassurance from any media or analysts regarding my investment choices but rather I believe when analysts speak or promote as they are only "talking their book" and there maybe quite a variance between what they offer the public as free analysis and what they provide to Institutions and Hedge Funds for a price.
Cassava might be ripe for a short. If Anavex falls in sympathy I will buy it.
My convictions that analysts are not entirely forthright was recently confirmed and reinforced by the analysts proclamations and the subsequent price action in Sage Therapeutics. Sage was trading at $86 in November, Biogen did a partner deal that included 10% stock at twenty percent premium price $103. It does not take a Wizard of Wall Street to know that was an excellent deal for cash and spreading development risk to Biogen. Big time Wirehouse analysts panned the excellent deal and cut price targets for Sage. Over the next week or so SAGE traded down to $68. I suspected the Wirehouses were lying to the public while advising accumulation to their paying clients. I added SAGE in the low $70s and sold in the mid $90s in about six weeks. Never touching my long term position or having a care in the world for what the analysts say positive or negative. BTW as soon as SAGE rose into the $90s the Wirehouses changed their tune back to positive then SAGE sold off again although not as much.
IMO it is better not to listen to analysts or the likes of CNBC except to deduce possible manipulations.
I believe that AVXL has a good chance to rise 5x from here within the next eighteen months. However I think if CNBC is touting AVXL that might not neccesarily be a good thing. I see no reason that all of a sudden Wall Street shorts will quit F'ng with Anavex. But I intend to hold and maintain Standard Operating Procedure....buying the dips!
Wall Street did not have a hoard of shares of Anavex from an IPO to sell to the public so Wall Street does not pump it. Instead Wall Street borrows shares and counterfeits shares and loan them out for a fee to hedge funds who short sell them while bashing the company. These hedge funds use the money they receive for shorting the shares to buy the shares of Companies that Wall Street is pumping. All on extreme margin as high as 50-100 to 1. That is why worthless companies like Axovant were high market cap until they collapsed on failure and why Anavex will be undervalued until it finally succeeds irrefutabaly.
They did the same thing with Mortgage Backed Secutities packaged bonds leading up the 2008 but in that instance they invented Collateral Debt Swaps - unregulated securities that were short derivatives of MBSs then when it all failed like they knew it would they covered all the shorts and went long stocks that everyone else had to sell with the tax payers Ben Bernake helicopter money that they received from the Wall Street extortion/blackmail of a new well meaning but naive Administration with the head of Goldman Saks the Wall Street Ring Leader Hank Paulson on the inside of the Administration. The threat of the blackmail/extortion was the Wall Street banks telling the Administration to give them Trillions because they were "Too Big to Fail" so instead of printing money to distribute to help Americans pay their mortgages they gave it to the Wall Street Banks who then used it to buy bonds from the Government who then paid interest to these Banks on the money the Government just gave them. The Banks of course foreclosed on the mortgages or re- financed them at less onerous terms then they originally created with the predatory adjustable rate no-docs/income proof mortgage loans.
The only decent thing they did was bail out GM but they put up a mighty stink about that Paulson and others were insisting that GM be allowed to fail. GM eventually paid back the loan in full.
Yea people forget the first one failed but SAVA says now this open label seems promising.
It is ok to do open label as long as the Company is a Wall Street sponsored one.
I was not aware of that. That lessens that scenario considerably. I looked at the science of SAVA thought it was not necessarily bad but I always thought it was partly Wall Street hype on the finance side even if the scientists were working on a valid thesis. But as long as the money press is working so well....then they can hype it some more and the participating institutions can later "distribute" the shares to the retail market. You know the ones that think Wall Street gives them the straight shot and buy what the media touts.
Well well, that is a whole load of gingipain!
Unfortunately for any naive or late to the party SAVA share buyers, experience tells me prior to the upgrade by Maxim there was already an agreement for a secondary stock offering by SAVA.
One only gets one guess who the underwriter will be and it does not take any guess work at all.
Anavex will get no upgrades as Anavex has IMO a much more equitable financing facility. That is good as gullible investors will not be take advantage of AND for truly committed long term shareholders the lower the price of AVXL until it is fairly valued the better as it allows further accumulation as the risk is lessened by fundamental developments.
It is frankly insane to short any OTC stock approaching a potential catalyst as it can gap up blowing past and buy/stop orders to mitigate losses and can not be hedged with long call options and no premarket to exit before the open market blast. The author can not have a very large short position in CYDY no one could be that stupid. He is likely just a poser who is writing the article for the amateur level payment Seeking Alpha pays for articles.
Avavex also has patents on all the known ways to manufacture A2-73. The original patent is unnecessary for anything whatsoever.
A3-71 may or may not be better than we do not know yet. Anavex would know better. They have it in the clinic in phase 1 and will proceed with a Phase 2 in FTD as Red Shoulder outlined.
I am fully satisfied with the way Anavex is proceeding. Other companies may or may not see relevance in the chromatin hypothesis. I imagine some already are studying that it is not a trade secret.
None of this is reason for Anavex to change course. I have confidence in the Company, they have not failed anything yet.
I did not think you were trying to create FUD. I was merely nipping it in the bud before it was insistently hammered on again by those that would try to dissuade new investors with that specious arguement.
Possibly part of the value of A3-71 is conveying a sense of futility to competitors looking to knock off A2-73 when Anavex has A3-71 in the pipeline. But that is a fanciful notion in it's self. Other scientists will continue to expand knowledge in the areas they are focused on just as Anavex is focused on it's lead compound which is A2-73. At this point A3-71 is a distraction that may or may not turn out to be valuable in the future.
Anavex affirmatively states in SEC documents that they have patent protection on A2-73 currently until 2033. One should be able to rely on the Companies SEC filings, one should not rely on what is said by posters on a message board.
Anavex says so in the SEC filings. This particular piece of FUD was extensively debunked over many months on this board back in 2015 and 2016. It was constantly harped on by the fudsters back then and it has no basis in fact. The expiration of the original patent is irrelevant and immaterial as it has been superseded by many more stronger and specific patents.
A3-71 has not been shown to be superior in clinical trials and Anavex is not so stupid to pivot to A3-71 when they have a perfectly good drug they already know so much more about. It is a complete logical fallacy to think one drug might be superior just because it is more potent. A3-71 has not been clinically tested, just now in Phase 1.
Anavex has more patents on A2-73 and they are focused on developing A2-73 and rightly so.
A2-73 is has full IP protection to 2033 this is from a whole suite of use patents.
The expiration of the original patent is irrelevant as that patent has been superseded by a comprehensive suite of new patents. At this point the IP protections of A2-73 are likely superior to the IP protections of A3-71.
Anavex is constantly expanding its IP protection. It is a non issue.
Patent and IP protections are fully secured. It is the last thing anyone should worry about. The patent expired boogie man is always paraded for FUD anytime for the last 5 years that Anavex makes advancements. Just to pre-empt further unreasonable fears Patent protection also extends to MS, Epilepsy and many others.
Anavex already has a patent or pending application for use of A2-73 for cancer and many others.
Avavex has a full suite of patents and the IP fully protected.
Patent protection is a non issue and the company constantly works at securing further protections. One of the Directors is a world class international patent attorney.
From reading the Quarterly reports I got it that a research firm (NSABP)is running the TNBC trial drug combination with Keytruda and Generex is paying that company. I could be wrong but read the first paragraph at the top of 44 of the 10Q filed Dec 21, 20. Generex total cost is about $2.1 mil and they have paid $500k so far. I am thinking NSABP is in control of that trial and Generex can neither slow it down or speed it up. All payments are made by Generex on a milestone basis to NSABP.
Patience on that one.
Yes. Excellent. This new chromatin MOA of blarcaesine seems to be a unifying thread an Unbroken Chain throughout CNS spectrum. Amazing as all the notes are hit perfectly in a beautiful harmony.
Go Anavex!
I have a question as relates to Anavex AVXL and cannabinoid.
What would the stock be in the cbd space that compares to Anavex in your opinion?
What is your opinion on the products from cbdMD?
Go AVXL.
Fan Fiction of course. LOL
Enjoy.
i definately agree. That is my read as well.
One would have to deduce that there maybe tens of millions shares sold short much higher on the spike day as existing shares held short buy/stops were hit then rolled over to re-short much higher. This combined with no further share sales would create a dynamic rising price as these short sellers would start slowly covering to take profits on the re-short to mitigate losses on the original short positions.
Some trigger that re-spiked the price into the $20s might re-ignite a short buy/stop rally again raising the trigger zone again.
Entrenched short positions seem to be similar to sweating dynamite in some market sectors. Short buy/stop rallies seem to be set off by the slightest shock even delta hedging by Options MM buying common shares to balance Call Options risk.
These are big players pushing this phenomenon. Lots of multimillion dollar Long call otm near term options. I saw a $105 million order go through for 47000 otm call option single strike the other day. That is a 4.7 million share delta for options that had less than one week to expiration. It is almost like the New Administration is bypassing the RICO forfeiture statutes and going directly to the Market to seize RICO funding. As crazy as this sounds it did not start until after Inauguration. As they say truth stranger than fiction. The only other thing could be computer algo trading in a pitched battle between hedge funds. It is definitely not Reddit other than as a smoke screen amplified with Media Propaganda.
Long only, Cash Reserves and no options, crypto and nimble to the max seems to be the only way to ride it out.
Weird.