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An excellent discussion of the dichotomy between emotional trading based on stock price and rational investing based on risk/reward equations.
Rationally, having completed two trials essentially a phase 2 in moderate Covid and a phase 2/3 (that ended as a phase 2 because designed at a time that less was known) there is a greater probability of unqualified success in the next phase of development as much more is known regarding applying the drug to the indication and therefore the clinical risk is now lower and the reward has not diminished. Where an emotional trader might wring one's hands in anxiety over the now lower share price, a rational investor might see a much-improved risk/reward because new shares will buy the same clinical reward as before CD12 reveal for less money and a now much greater chance of success going forward armed with what was learned in what some erroneous label as failed Phase 2 trials.
In my view, the risk/reward equation for CytoDyn investment has never been better. Really a clinical trial only fails when there is no road to continue to approval. CytoDyn has a clear and relatively quick path to approval in Covid. Then there are those pocket Aces in HIV and TNBC. NASH could add another.
One of the worst mistakes in investing in biotech is equating share price with probabilities of clinical success. Much of the risk has been wrung out of CYDY as it is priced for failure in Covid when it is actually closer than ever to an EUA.
Patience pays in Biotech.
A T-trade could not be Fife and could not be dilution. It is just required reporting of trades not shown in Time & Sales earlier contemporaneous to their execution. House keeping for regulatory reporting.
I agree. I do not see advances in radiation/surgical technologies lessening the need for cancer vaccine technologies. Rather opposite as advances in cellular vaccine technologies may reduce the need for direct surgical intervention in some cases.
Ok I could not find that info.But Foxconn is a Taiwan company with some factories in China.
This post is 100% correct and can serve to alleviate much of the confusion exhibited by posts regarding these matters. I will save this post and might repost quoting you on these matters if I fell an honest poster is confused on this subject. Well stated. Thank you.
Ok so there was a company ZAP Surgical Systems (ZAAP) that was delisted from OTC stock market @ $0.0004/ share Market Cap $2.6 million and now Zero and still has a web site. This is a competitor to NWBO?
This post is totally confused on all the facts.
I feel both actions of warrant holders selling into rally and more shorting would be irrational moves. Warrant holders would surrender the time value of the warrants and short sellers would be taking unacceptable risks. I would not harbour unreasonable fears. That would be an emotional response that can lead to missteps.
Once NWBO stock has significant future appreciation the warrants might start to trade separately on the exchange. Holders of warrants could then sell them with time value attached and receive more value without the cost of exercising them. I do not know that for a fact but existing warrants I do not believe are something to fear. Additional short sellers are not to be feared as they will need to be bought back at some point if TLD is good. I expect good results on TLD and approval from all of the RAs.
When did the news of this pending publication hit? Same time that NWBO stock started back up? Umm...
Expecting a continued rally largely uninterrupted until TLD or the release of the publication.
When someone says they sold near a low after having previously bought near a high getting back in after before that saying they had sold at near a low. Certainly they must not be making a case that they are a savvy investor to those that remember those previous posts. On each buy or sell maybe ineffectively trying to get others to copy the sell low or buy high timing that they exhibit for the board readers to see.
Or maybe just an example of emotional trading that results most often in the buy high sell low pattern. The posts do show a lot of emotional considerations mostly fear.
Pre-revenue biotech stocks cycle up and down fairly regularly therefore it may be advisable to limit emotional trading decisions. Of course that is easier said than done.
I am buying these dips but I do not profess to know the outcome just that currently CYDY has a very favorable risk to reward ratio at these prices IMO. It may take a lot of patience or it might turn around fairly quickly.
CytoDyn was in talks with the FDA. What do you suppose those talks were about if not EUA?
Maybe if a lot of Doctors that treat Covid would write to Senators and Members of Congress that there could be an investigation or oversight to correct the inaction on the part of the FDA in regards to Leronlimab.
I think the only thing that might help is as many people as possible write their Senators and Congressmen and Congress women and demand or request that they find out what is going on with Leronlimab not being used to save lives in this pandemic. Why the failure at FDA and its DMSC?
"Sidding" is not a word. This post is nonsense for that and the fact it is irrational as well as incoherent.
Adding to the confusion. Why not compare Nader's compensation with companies in Idaho? Another State that borders on Washington State. You read it here on this board from a confused poster. If comparing to Washington State companies the list includes Amazon Microsoft Costco Starbucks Weyerhaeuser Kaiser Permanente. For effect I am sure Idaho and Oregon better to make comparison.
A comparison to CEOs of similar sized by market cap prerevenue biotechs would be more pertinent.
But I get your point. Nader is overpaid. I would be happy if they would make him a severance package. He has largely out served his usefulness to CytoDyn.
This guy could be a good CytoDyn CEO. What would that news do to the stock price and therefore do for Nader's wealth? And ours.
The trial structure was not botched. The trial started early in pandemic with what we knew then. The information gained in this trial should result in approval from this next trial. The only thing botched was inexperienced investors unreasonable expections. The trial was a success as a step along the way to approval. Even BP trials all led to terminal failure. The CD12 led to green light for final trial to approval.
Three gaps down and RSI 25% spell capitulation and down move exhaustion. On Nov 10th when the stock fell to $1.63 RSI just touched 30%. Never in 35 years of investing have I ever lost money on stock purchase of lots I bought when RSI was below 30%. They are very rare events and super sweet buying opportunities.
The last one I loaded at one of these low points was a 10 bagger in 24 months. (25 baggers at the high- and sold a lot of 5 baggers lots in 6 months)...still no approval.
From the low of $1.63 on Nov 10 2020 CYDY increased 429% to a high of $7 on 12-22-20. Easy 3 to 4 bagger in 6 weeks and one did not have to buy at bottom or sell and top. In 11 trade In days Dec 7 to Dec 21 just two weeks CYDY went from $2.30 to $6.28 open on Dec 22nd.
Wash rinse repeat. The next two weeks could be chock full of position news resulting in a repeat of this massive upswing. This is not advice. It is just what I am doing taking profits in other stocks and buying more CYDY. It a few weeks I might sell a few CYDY at double or triple and greatly raise my position in those other less volatile stocks.
Buy when there is blood in the streets even if it is your own. This maneuver is hard to do when all stocks are down like last spring but when the market (retail at least) misunderstands an event it is time to grab the golden fleece.
Victory favors the bold.
CytoDyn science is advancing even as the stock price declines. I liked it at $4.20 I love it in the $2.20s.
Yes it was an excellent result in the CD12.
To have it turn out well enough for approval in the first try would have been pure luck since it was designed before CD10 was complete at the start of the pandemic. Now they know exactly what they need to do to get approval. One quick clean clear shot by the excellent marksman Dr. Rahman.
The big money knows it too.That's why the smash and grab ...short and buy up cheap ...to grab the diamonds from retail's display case.
The PR of the results was written as it was for legal reasons because technically it did not meet Stat Sig on the predetermined primary endpoint so they felt they could not sell hard. That was the Securities Lawyers writing that PR. They need better lawyers writing those.
CD12 was absolutely the best trial for any medication in Covid19 yet. It was designed at the start before anyone knew much about Covid19 and before they knew how to apply Leronlimab to Covid19. It was really a Phase 2/3 exploratory trial that could have by luck gotten approval. All other trials failed completely Leronlimab now has a clear path to approval. Rarely ever do any first Phase 3s even for BP lead to approval when the first Phase 3 is a new indication. The ones that do are already approved drugs and the trial is for a new indication or label expansion.
Leronlimab now is more valuable because even though not approved yet it has another successful trial and a much larger body of knowledge and evidence and experience with extremely fragile patients. Think of it like undeveloped real estate in a prime commercial location. The value and income will not be derived until it is developed and the office tower or shopping center is built. The undeveloped lots are extremely valuable unique and irreplaceable. No one else has it. But there is no income yet. The plans must be drawn up and certified by engineers and architects ( clinical trials) then the zoning and building permits has to be issued by the legal authorities based on those detailed engineering studies and environmental impact statements. (FDA or other Reg Approval) What is the highest and best use of this valuable undeveloped real estate (drug)? HIV or Cancer? What can be built or a corner of the lot to help fund the rest of the development? Acute Covid, Long Haulers, and Post Viral Syndrome?
CytoDyn does not have a problem with the real estate (drug) it is a fantastic well-positioned valuable lot.
CytoDyn does not have a problem with the engineering or architectural plans. The clinical trials have been great so far they just need some minor revisions.
CytoDyn does have a funding problem. They need to concentrate on that one little corner development for the Covid related indications to get cash flow to fund the building of the CytoDyn version of the Petronas Twin Towers. (Built according to the Islamic Architectural Tradition to reflect on the glory of God even though a commercial building). Twin towers of Cancer and Nash paid for by Covid cash flow is the vision and it is a brilliant one.
CD16 is a clear path to realize this vision of cash flow. It is readily achievable and we have the right Architect in Dr. Mahboob U. Rahman M.D., Ph.D., FACR
May God help them achieve this daring vision for the betterment of all mankind.
Seeking Alpha is just a forum for anyone to post and get paid for articles. They like sensationalism on controversial stocks.
There are some good authors on there that have specialities like Energy Sector or Dividend Stocks and so forth. It also has a lot of short sellers with questionable veracity. I have been a member over the years but only for specialty areas like those above a complex investments like ETNs that really need a specialist. The random posters on Seeking Alpha are low quality. One has to pay extra to the authors to get access to the specialists work. You will know who to follow after much study.
Short sellers generally always misrepresent the facts to further their short agenda. There are a few decent balanced biotech writers there like Brett Jensen but mostly the value of Seeking Alpha is the specialty areas. SA is not strong on biotech writers. The Specialists are licenced and degreed professionals with impressive C.V.s and of course you pay for their work.
The author of that has no credibility or training and credentials to form a basis for his short opinion. Anyone can write for Seeking Alpha. He is just a random short seller trying to bolster his short book and earn amateur pay from Seeking Alpha for his essay. For all we know he was Timmy Sykes or Andrew Left's Pizza delivery boy.
I am thinking the price push below $2.50 may have been naked short selling if so those might be covered in the afternoon or over the next few days. So they will not have a failure to deliver event recorded. Games Market Makers play to accumulate cheap shares and make trading profits. Close at $2.50-2.65 possible.
Market Makers shaking the tree to dislodge retail shares before the launch of product sales in a few months. I have seen the exact scenario many times. It should be expected.
Anyone not holding or buying here may want to consider if pre-revenue biotechs are an appropriate investment for them.
This looks like a good time to accumulate more shares of CYDY to me.
I am looking to take profits in other stocks and increase position here before the next run up.
The trial was a limited success the next one will likely result in product sales. Also product may be sold overseas soon while the US trial is recruiting. The next news could come any day and trigger a run up with extra fuel from short covering.
CytoDyn is a possible 10 bagger from here. So for new money or addition accumulation each dollar driven lower allows more stock for investment dollar. So for every dollar shirt sellers made short term; long term holders for new shares might make $10 or more. I hope the price is pinned low for months. I do not get emotional about low share price or need increasing prices to give me confidence that I am making good investment decisions. The lower the better. Dollar cost averaging for shoving more shares into 401ks and Roth401ks.
The price decline wrung a lot of risk out of CYDY just at the time the company became more valuable on an unrealized fundamental basis. Lower trial risk going forward and lower price to buy more shares or the pay the tax and shove into Roth401.
The bomb went off already time to move in and clean up to grab shares. Biotech always have these risk events. Now it has passed, time to step up share buys. I am seeing more risk in blue chip techs now than CytoDyn. I think I will scale out of fully valued stocks and into this undervalued Gem of a developing company.
CytoDyn won just delayed but the price is like it failed. What is not to like about today?
Investing is about rational decisions and banishing insecurity and emotional doubts. CytoDyn just became more valuable but at the same time the price became cheaper. A Rolex for the price of a Timex.
Make no mistake the dark pools are churning with Whales chomping at the bit to take a position in CytoDyn after these results. Pressure the stock price and accumulate is the order of the day...sooner or later one will take more than 5% position and file an SEC13g.
The Market Makers control the day to day price (vertical axis)but the long shareholders control the long time line (horizontal axis) and all that is necessary is patience and confidence.( Buying the dips helps.) Expect volatility as the whales feed off the shares of impatient and fearful retail. That is what the shrill shrieks of "CytoDyn is a scam" are all about.
CytoDyn has a remarkable and possibly disruptive drug in Leronlimab.
Dig in! We got this.
Excellent post! Thank you. My thoughts exactly. The value of what was learned in the trial was astounding. It was a smashing success and should lead to fast (fast in biotech time..not get rich quick time..) full approval for inclusion into SOC for acute critical Covid.
I also agree with CytoDyn's Brazil angle...time to get in the Conga Line and dance with a Brazilian CRO and Pharma Company.
The results of CD12 added $5 billion to the value of CytoDyn. It has just not shown up in the market cap....yet.
Let this sink in....all the BP drugs and trials have failed. Only Dexamethasone has shown reliable utility for Covid....it comes with a high price...organ failure.
CytoDyn drug did not fail...it showed remarkable signal...the trial was flawed in several ways as it was designed in the early days of the pandemic. It needed a larger N of critical and a different design.
Most all the other BP trials ended in terminal failure. Most drugs need to have several Phase 3s on the way to approval.
Most of other drugs are not getting that chance.
CytoDyn has a fairly quick and sure path to approval. I can not stress enough the immense value of the knowledge gained in these two prior trials in designing this likely last trial for acute Covid. Then there is the long haulers trial...again Leronlimab is ahead here as well as one of the only drugs in the race.
If this were a scam there would not be a cacophony of shrill voices calling it such.
This is a disruptive drug for a possible multitude of indications. The company has a eccentric CEO .....Steve Jobs was fired at Apple. Everyone thought Elon Musk was an dreamer in the early years and that his vision would never succeed.
Say what you will about Nader but the man has vision.
How many metals did Edison test before he found tungsten?
The short sighted see CD12 as a failure. It is but one step along the way. Nearly all Biotechs face stumbling blocks. Where so many warn of danger is the time and place of opportunity...on the path to success.
If there were bad facts to face we would not have a lot of posts about bad fact to face. This is like Anavex Life Sciences was over the years with a lot of people like Adam Fraudstein saying it was a scam. That one has been a 10 bagger for me in just a few years and no approval or revenue yet.
If there are a lot of people warning you not to buy or hold the stock it is a indication that there is extreme fear of the disruptive nature of the technology.
Buying the dips and exercising proper patience pays off extremely well.
A modest or medium position held for 5 or more years can make one extremely wealthy.
Yes I agree. Also they are getting requests from Companies wanting to do trials with Leronlimab in other indications where that Company or Companies would pay for the trials and all CytoDyn has to do is supply the Leron. I hope one is Anavex to trial Leron with blarcamisine for ALZ.
Smart money buys biotech on the inevitable speed bumps. Patience pays off big time.
Stimulus passed the Senate after already passing the house. Market might leap on Monday. That won't hurt either.
Only 140 patients with a new endpoint of shortened time to release from hospital or ICU. Naysayers are kidding you that this is bad news. This is fantastic news and can be easily and quickly done. Could be a lock to approval. If the mantra is to sell the good news because the catalyst has passed; it might also be to close the short positions on perceived bad news as the drop has happened and the next news might be fantastic and surprising good news without notice.
We might get a drop and pop on short cover rally.
If you are so sure of your predictions of low $2s then maybe you should sell all at the open Monday then short sell half as many and buy back before your predicted bounce to mid $3s? What do you think? Let us know how that works out.
I agree with this post. The original post made assumptions based on a misunderstanding of security laws.
Secondly there is no science backing the assumption that as infectivity goes up that potential for fatalities from the virus goes down. Further there is no science backing the assumption that infectivity is rising. A more reasonable assumption is that SOC is improving.
Most importantly share price reactions can not be accurately forecasted. Price has often gone down after PRs but is not predictable in magnitude. Yes selling the news is a thing and fear mongering is a thing as well.
FDA reactions are not predictable especially without the full data which the FDA may have but we do not.
Share price will have no bearing on or indication of future Regulatory actions. Frequently the market behaves opposite of what is expected.
The original post is just on persons emotional response and opinions. Trading on emotions whether fear, greed or FOMO is usually not advised. Smart money sells into strength and buys on weakness.
My opinion is CytoDyn is a long term winner and that Leronlimab is a very important emerging too for Covid. We will see if the FDA, based on the full data, believes a EUA is appropriate. Safety of Leronlimab weighs heavily in favor of a near term EUA.
I am a buyer on share price weakness and a holder on strength. The past week the CYDY price as the IBB XBI QQQ traded in lock step down. A reversal this coming week in Tech and Biotech might be a positive influence on CYDY.
No they have not allowed a 90 minute webcast with Q&A. I am expecting some heavy weight analysts on this call.
Cancer drug company Five Prime bought by Amgen for $38 or $1.9 billion. Last year it traded as low as $1.75. NWBO should be a much bigger bang. Cheer up. We got this. I am expecting share price of NWBO to trade up and beyond $20 this year and $40 in 2022.
No not Bracillidin. That drug is a anti-viral.
Maybe you were joking?
CytoDyn has to be on US Corona Task Force radar already as it is the only drug to finish S2C Covid trial without modification plus OLE is ongoing.
I would imagine the total existing stockpile is spoken for already and contingent plans being made to facilitate a ramp in production.
What was the other company/drug with the G Simulating Factor MOA similar to Lenzilimab that just failed its trial?
Might be a reason the stock is fading? What do you think?