Cytodyn Inc (CYDY)

[jimmy667]

An excellent discussion of the dichotomy between emotional trading based on stock price and rational investing based on risk/reward equations.
Rationally, having completed two trials essentially a phase 2 in moderate Covid and a phase 2/3 (that ended as a phase 2 because designed at a time that less was known) there is a greater probability of unqualified success in the next phase of development as much more is known regarding applying the drug to the indication and therefore the clinical risk is now lower and the reward has not diminished. Where an emotional trader might wring one's hands in anxiety over the now lower share price, a rational investor might see a much-improved risk/reward because new shares will buy the same clinical reward as before CD12 reveal for less money and a now much greater chance of success going forward armed with what was learned in what some erroneous label as failed Phase 2 trials.
In my view, the risk/reward equation for CytoDyn investment has never been better. Really a clinical trial only fails when there is no road to continue to approval. CytoDyn has a clear and relatively quick path to approval in Covid. Then there are those pocket Aces in HIV and TNBC. NASH could add another.
One of the worst mistakes in investing in biotech is equating share price with probabilities of clinical success. Much of the risk has been wrung out of CYDY as it is priced for failure in Covid when it is actually closer than ever to an EUA.
Patience pays in Biotech.