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Wondering if Heptares deal attracts speculative hot $$ to AVXL.
http://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/allergan-and-heptares-announce-global-rd-and-commercialization-partnership-for-novel-treatments-in-20160406-01166
Also wondering if the Motley Joker hit piece was the first salvo in a renewed FUD campaign.
Contrary to the bald faced unsupported assertions of that MF article it seems as if AVXL has been rapidly developing A2-73. Given an additional two year time frame and continued success it is certainly conceivable AVXL could sport a $2-6 Billion market capitalization within that very short time frame.
FLETCH & XENA IBB XBI AVXL are BREAKING OUT! Along with the market as a whole. XENA you have been looking for forensic evidence that AVXL is being accumulated by Institutions. You might see some evidence in the charts of AVXL XBI IBB $INDU and SPY. Why? Because the Biotech ETFs and Market Indices indicate the flow of Institutional or "smart money". In the past AVXL did not follow the market. NOW IT DOES! Indicating the price of AVXL is following the pattern of Institutional Investment. Look at the patterns of each of these on the stockcharts.com Gallery View here: (just substitute the tickers in the Gallery Veiw box and pay attention to the P&F chart for simplicity)
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?s=avxl
Finally Fletch for a near textbook Cup with Handle in final formation stage look at current Dow Bell Weather BA. Why is this important to AVXL? Because the failed short attack on BA Feb 10-11 resulted in the current tradeable low in the broad markets and AVXL has not come under sustained short attack since. From 2-11 to 3-21 renewed interest in BA lead the DOW back up same as it lead it down prior to 2-11. The Biotch sector IBB and XBI lead the markets up prior to the most recent correction then lead it down and now are both FIRMLY BREAKING OUT.
GO AVXL! Evidence seems apparent to me that now the share price of AVXL is closely correlated to Institutional appetite for equities and Biotech in particular which tends to confirm XENAs thesis that AVXL price is now driven by the Institutional longs.
ALL THE CHARTS ARE LOOKING SUPER! Go AVXL and good luck to all!
Ascending Triple Top Breakout 4-5-16 run to 6.5-7.5 poss. we have not had one of these in a while last time got a $1 pop. $6-7 is where is should have held after the Oct-Nov 15 parabola except for the concerted short FUD and NSS/HFT attacks. Pay close attention to the P&F Chart featured here:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?s=avxl
All we need is follow through on volume above $6.
Good Luck to All and GO AVXL!!!
Follow through on volume 4-6-16 might indicate a breakout. Three white candles anyone? Or is this just a peak following the uptrend started 2-11-16? I wonder if there is some speculation that there may be a PR coming in conjunction with the GS Alz Symposium on Monday? Today's price volume action seems to indicated that there will be a follow through tomorrow. I hope to see it. Nice action today great gains without going parabolic. Good Luck to all and GO AVXL!
We should all ask ourselves if we are Speculators, Traders or Investors especially vis-a-vie AVXL as we approach a mini-binary event.
Clearly, frrol expresses sentiment of a level headed investor. Not to put a value judgment on any particular style, however one might assume to be an investor in AVXL one might need to possess an abundance of CBD's patience and perspective.
Speculators are looking for the homerun and might be heavily basing their thesis on probability that the 12 weeks results are well received by the market. Speculators need big wins to offset multiple losses. Time horizon 2 years
Pure traders are not invested in the company and follow price/volume momentum and other indicators to enter and exit trades. Many large and skilled traders in this stock some who no doubt have made out very well.
Investors have a longer time horizon of 5 years or more. Believe in the company, it's management, pipeline and some of the speculative events but are prepared to stick it out and dollar cost average in over many years.
Many here claim to trade around "a core" but is the core a speculative core or an Invested Core?
One might ask themselves if the unthinkable happens and the 12 week data is not well received and the stock price tanks what will they do? (I firmly believe that it will be good but I have seen small caps take big dives on outstanding data- witness Infinera upwards earning surprise late last year met with super drop in share price) A speculator might get a bad case of "get-even-itis" and move to the next hot money play.
A trader might sell all and hope to buy back lower and sell again on the bounce off the low, or some technical pivot point. An investor might cost average down and load the boat "knowing what they own" and not be focused solely on A2-73 realizing as they knew in the beginning that this is a very early stage biotech, one that should be held until the original thesis fails, five years or more.
One might ask them selves what if stock skyrockets? I think most all would take some off especially after being conditioned by the last parabola. But what if it continues to rise based on some catalyst (like BP partnership, etc.) quick on the heals of spike?
I am not suggesting or advising anything nor making any value judgments or predictions, just food for thought or discussion.
I am now on IndoChina Time so I miss most of the intra-day action. GOOD LUCK TO ALL! And Go AVXL!
Yes make the cause effect relationship clear in the 12 week results so can not put negative twist on it. However it seems likely if not clear to most astute observers as yourself that the slam down after the 5 WEEK data was not a result of the neg articles by AF Jf and such but rather those neg articles provided cover for neg price manipulation by naked shorting, HFT and spoof ask orders and concerted action in timing of short sales. So should one expect more of the same after release of the 12 week data? Why or why not?
When you sell covered call you dont lose them is they go over the strike price. Say it is $10 then if over 10 then you are forced to sell at 10 so you get 10 plus what ever you sold them for. Also to sell calls there must be someone buying them they could have short shares so by buying calls they protect their account in the case of a blue sky tornado such as happened with CPXX.
Yes these drops by cry babies selling are certainly a gift to instys and other INVESTORS adding. Just listen to them "I want my 12 week data (ba ba)"
AVXL seems to be in an upward channel on daily charts. If one assumes that much of the intra-day volatility is driven by day-traders then it would be safe to assume that there would be end of day selloffs especially on a Friday. IF day-traders are the ones providing liquidity then one could assume that they are out of shares to sell as they would have exited on Friday therefore may be net buyers in the morning at the low end of the recent channel Bo Band.
Xena I have commented in the past that I think you use technical analysis forensically, what is your feeling on the extent of the intra-day volatility attributable to day-trading? Since Feb 11 I feel that the stock has traded quasi-normally (though manipulated as many others)except for a plethora of day-traders. It seems AVXL has become a favorite vehicle of day traders, witness the appearances of Clay Trader who has a following among day-traders and the "round trip" patterns of intra-day price action and relatively low volume. ( as opposed to abnormally high volumes during short attacks)
Does not really matter to me as I do not sell but make periodic buys to accumulate for a long term investment. I do not try to "time the market" but I try to get the best price on a day I am adding. Therefore if the intra-day price action is driven to some extent by day-traders end of day purchases near the bottom of the bo bands might be the time to add on any given day.
Lead plaintiffs will get ZERO! Try fighting Germans and Greeks with no ammunition. Highly unlikely Germanic management and Greek major shareholders will ever settle the case. They might as well be sueing the Donald. Plus they have no evidence. Plaintiffs and scummy law firms will likely give up as litigation expenses mount. It is time to make a stand against these parasites. Just my f...ing opinion.
12 week data is opportunity for bashing. BP might like the fact that if A2-73 if approved would likely be RX'd for life. So it might be that the 2 year extension is much more important for positive share price than the 12 week data and almost impossible to twist and bash. It is just as likely to tank on the announcement of 12 week data as it is on not announcing the 12 week data maybe more so. No one expects a miracle but if not outstanding could lead to bashing. But the two year extension merely drills home the realization that if approved will likely be RX'd for life making it a potential blockbuster commercial success. Jmho
Looks like next news on this front will be that the Rhett Syndrome foundation will fund the trial. It would seem thatvthe duration of such a trial or the top line results would be available PDQ as it will either work or not and the effect would be easily measured or demonstrated. Dramatic results would mitigate toward accelerated approval thereby validating the platform across the board for the various indications.
One message or take a way from such a funding would say to market in effect "Who needs BP partnership our drug is so novel and so effective that funding for AVXL trials will come from foundations and grants no need for Partnership or secondary offering or even the LP credit facility" Also validates A2-73 as an upsteam curative agent not a pallative treatment as are all the current nuero drugs are pallative only many with dangerous side effects. Safe effective not just on symptoms of various Neuro indications but curative. THIS IS BIGGER THAN IT SEEMS AT FIRST BLUSH. Consider the logical extension of what this would indicate if A2-73 is effective on Rhetts and again if it works they will know soon and results could be dramatic.
Shares have been trading normally in that it seems. There is little risk in long positions in that we have held $3.30 area three times. Been there done that and survived all those attacks. It would seem that volume has been too light as of late to allow significant short covering. There is a real possibility of a blockbuster PR or a mid day SEC filing on any number of catalysts that could explode the share price. No chance to cover for shorts and no chance for swingers to re establish the long position they relinquished. If we pull back we have some targets and supports we can be somewhat confident of. No real sellers at this point and as of late no sustained buyers. Odds seem to be stacked therefore the palapable fear evidenced by the high level of tricky soft bashing and outright trolling. Positive developments have potential distroy the shorts but the longs have proven they can weather the attacks. Time is on thevside of the longs. Of couse sooner the better to trap the greedy shorts in their ultimately untenable position.
God Bless to All. Luck is no longer needed this has the earmarks of fiat accompli timing is now the only question in my opinion.
So get in get out
I do not think you are missing anything. One would assume if they are showing continued improvement the patients would want to continue on the optimized dosing regimen as well as the Doctors tending to the patients and the Company.
One possible senareo is that it may be planned the these remaining 30 patients become part of the 300 plus cohort for the Phase 2/3 pivotal study. Which has not been announced but has been announced that AVXL will go forward with that study. It could be that it is not decided yet as of yet if they will or will not part of that cohort. If they will be then extension of current study would be moot. If it is decided they will not then maybe they can seek compassionate use or extension. So you may get your answer in conjuntion with the announcement of the pivotal study.
Also there maybe a logistics and supply issue in that one would suppose that they do not have a huge supply on the shelf. For the Phase 2/3 the Company must arrange for contract manufacturing of at least 10X of current capacity.
I think your concern is valid but I believe it will be resolved positively.
From a purely paranoid share price perspective if they announce extension before the announcing the Phase 2/3 the market participants may react negatively as a sign there will be a delay in starting that next study. This whole subject might be a clue that the Phase 2/3 announcement will come soon.
I do not have much knowledge in this arena just trying to view the issue from all angles.
Good Luck to all and God Bless all and especially the important work that is being done by the Company and it's independent researchers and of course the patients themselves.
Xena uses TA for forensics Tom123 for TA target zones both are extremely valuable to this board. I tried to respond to a well respected poster on this board that thought I should be fitted for straight jacket but his post and my response were both deleted I will not repeat response to him because I think most people will realize the second half of my "rant" was qualified as a what if "black swan" . 9-11 type.
I still hold to the short term thesis that we are out of the woods as far as short attacks are concerned and I will defer to Xena analysis that they either ran out of ammunition or as I think redeployed elsewhere.
This is a WTF what if this could happen type scenario. The first part about the market spike down as a result of Boeing dragging down the market is shared by respected main stream non-straight jacketed analysts.
Will we ever know? I do not think so SEC does not have the security clearance to engage this factor in MHO
Are conspircies rare? Yes statistically they are black swans extremely rare but the effect is extereme so they need to be accounted for in a different fashion. Every possible permutation of outlaying rare event needs to be investigated. Even if it seems the rant of a lunatic whom sees some possible connection with other events.
Watch the 9/11 World Trade Center news feed again and listen to REM "ITS BEEN A BAD DAY" it might put one in the mood to be vigilant which is not the same as being paranoid or a conspiracy buff. Nice to be able to sleep well at night but we are far from out of the woods on that shit.
IMHO AVXL is out of the woods on short attacks. This Xena is brilliant as far as that goes. If I am not mistsken it is her belief they will have a hard time to cover. I concur. While Tom123 is struck with fear my thoughts are that the decreased volume will make it exteremly difficult shorys to cover in the short term due to drastically decreased trading volumes. They may be able to avoid a squeeze but I doubt they will be able to effect a deep spike down as Tom123 fears. Xena is an analyst that look at past trading forensically I trust them both. I do not see any evidence of disception on either. Tom123 swing targets have been accurate to a degree that supports his thesis also shared by Xena that the price action has been CONTROLLED. These are two very knowegable TA analysts who might not come from GS or MSSB but I trust. NO AXE TO GRIND.
As far as my suspicions of Russian Mafia involvement in the markets.
I will just share one axiomatic saying of my late Phi Beta Kappa Law Partner. "Pigs are at the trough when the money is green"
As crazy as it seems someone must chase the "RABBIT DOWN THE HOLE" when the Security of the United States is at risk.
I knew on last Thursday AVXL was in the clear for sustained attacks. That could change. I have 20x in Boeing and never worry. I now have no worries for AVXL in 15 years all of you brilliant and brave MIGHT (froll I said might) have a split adjusted cost basis sub $1 post in a well respected mid to large cap biotech. That said volatility is extereme and risk could be considered by some to be off the charts. Some might consider the risk/reward profile daunting but as Boeing showed us last week even the Bluest Chips not immune from the SEC being played like a cheap fiddle. TA good for price point day to year Sentiment 3 mo to 2 years. FOR FUNDAMENTALS 5 YEARS. I plan to accumulate AVXL up to the cusp of the first binary event then sell some or half to reduce risk if win buy on Tom123 type retacement from spike. If lose double down if we still have viability on other indications.
I think Tom123 and Xena are both right on. I favor Xenas take because like I said in the first part of my "rant" I beleive that the macro market picture is improving. Even if we have to double bottom again we will hold again at the last low as will the general market. Now we have normal volume and price point actions consistent with market conditions. Avenex IR said it email to Tob at some point the shorts would move on to other targets. I think they have and I think Xena can offer forensic evidence.
My respect to you all.
My Dear fellow shareholders: This is our Planet these are our People! You Will Make a Difference in the lives of others trust in yourself trust in God.
How is the price of AVXL stock affected by the price of Tea (or airplane orders) in China! and Oil ministers meetings as well.
Macros in market turned positive last Thursday! Look at daily candles of IBB XBI $DJI COMP BA AVXL go ahead look now you will see that first 4 look alike last to slightly different. This is why H.Opinion is that we are out of the woods for now and market fight of AVXL is on an open range with support from tutes and well healed investors. Money is coming back into the market and biotech. Boeing is recovering from what I speculate was a concerted short attack culminating in a SEC investigation announcement last Wens 2-11-16. Sound familiar?
Boeing bounced back and at the Barclays Investors Conference this morning at least partially debunked the slowing China myth with airplane orders of high margin 737s from China and gave robust growth projections from China India and Asia in general.
Oil meetings are steadying the markets worldwide.
What this means is cash is coming back to stocks and biotech included see IBB XBI charts. Wide spectrum funds like Vanguard like to own a little piece of everything AVXL included whether biotech sector funds or most every stock of the COMP index. Also individuals interested in AVXL but afraid of market in General were sidelined to some extent throughout this latest correction.
Why do I speculate that Boeing may have been attacked? Because it fit my thesis: RICO activity in the markets specifically Illegal short selling to make quick outsized profits and wash trading between accounts to launder money.
After seeing the effects of these short attacks on smaller scale I thought they would test the nuclear HF Algos and Short/Distort campaigns on a larger target, I had thought it would be AAPL or BA. Why? Because either one could bring down the whole market.
It was Boeing leading down the $DJI and $SPY. Now since last Thurs. 2-12-16 has been leading them up. Can you imagine what the markets in General would have done if BA collapsed to $65? Or is AAPL lost half its value? Think Lehman Bros 2008.
Who might be doing this or is it all a coincidence? Someone should be on high alert (some might say slightly paranoid) Ask a major crime detective if they believe in coincidents.
Is RICO involvement in the USMarkets a National Security Risk or a Risk to our Economy? What if that RICO was the Russian Mob which some believe contains a radical core of the old KGB?
One might find connections to all this from a squirrelly little punk currently in custody.
Why do I speculate that there is at least a possiblity it was connected to Russian Mob ? Because it was Boeing under attack not Apple and there is a least some possibility that the SEC is being played like a cheap
fiddle. Most direct way to do that would be threat do what we say or we kill your whole family. But I suspect that it would be more cunning like forgery and subterfuge Black Ops campaign.
Good Luck to all you brave longs in AVXL. If you see any dots that I missed let me know I will try to connect them and include in my fictional ? account of this.
LOL. Relax and enjoy we are all about to take a "nice long ride."(The good kind)
God Bless and Good Luck and Cheer to All.
110% agree with your statement. News of all the unprecidentedly rapid development will compressed together in time the next few months. Yes I do believe this Dog can Hunt.
I agree. With both statements but I have never viewed it as a Cessna but it get the analogy,very descriptive. One could also make a analogy to a Elon Musk SpaceX BFR with one failed launch but still promisingly disruptive new technology. BTW $3.92 pre market last I checked.
Xena makes an extremely cogent statement. AGAIN! At some point all of the various positives will reach critical mass and AVXL might explode again. However I would prefer to have a controlled flight upward. The best timing for the next PR would be Monday on the heals of this MS conference. On second thought an explosion might be good to blow up the shorts although if it is Organized shorts as some suspect they may have a contingency plan. One might look for unusual increased interest on call options.
Damm Right. Today looks like could be a huge up day in the general market. Oil is right now surging ahead of the Saudi Russia meeting. AVXL came out of the woods last Thursday and we are now fighting on an open range. JMHO. Looks like we are getting some close in support from 'tutes and well healed retail. Boeing which has been a recent drag on the Dow could get a big boost today on its appeal decision today to DoD on the bomber program deal to Northrup Grumann.
This would be the best possible day for a positive PR. Good luck and God Bless all you smart and brave AVXLarmy.
Tom you were right on on the support step at 3.40 flat lined there most of morning on a beat dow of market today. Then blew up from there on huge volume spike as a watched big asks get slapped in fell swoops. Little volume in the holding collar between the big bids at 3.37 and big asks at 3.43 until the 25k share ask slap. 3.40 looks like fairly strong support for at least a few days. In your comment " I do not know how 200ma can not be hit." Of course you mean from a purely technical standpoint in a total vacuum of fundamental reasons.As short term tech traders for the most part completely ignore fundamentals. I am not saying that is bad and might be good for short term and especially day traders. But there are many fundamental reasons that may not happens some so strong no amount of short attack could stop such as positive fda action partnership govt. Grant ect. maybe others not envisioned at this point. We know the 12 week data will be released before the end of March if recent lows hold until then well then they may get left in the dust of time as the company is radically revalued by the market.
Do not worry on market crush. Will be time for well healed investors as yourself to move in. It seems we have a Corps of investors that are Intelligent and brave. I am not worried. I will 2x or 3x holding this year. Added today. When have FDA approval will load boat just like an insty
Forget Inst. Ownership we need more strong indsys. We have a strong Corps right here
Be as Airborne Rangers we Are pinned down low on ammo and supplies. Just How we we trained to adapt and overcome. One billion MC is by Law of Agency and Fiduciaries is where many can trusts and insurance companies can invest. Not advice I have not practiced Law for nearly 10 years. We are one trip of a trigger to get there
Myself I will invest here at whatever price. Not selling blue chips yet to buy more Anavex but intend to triple may holdings this year. I bought some today at 4.30 Not a trader but when Boeing is 122 not inclined to trade out of blue chips. Not inclined to sell GILD but when the time comes.
I think of you my dear fellow AVXL investors as true and brave.
Wolfwayne is the Army Ranger and we can not be Rangers but we can learn and survive adapt and overcome to push through to the objective like a Ranger Division.
At Avavex they call CEO Dr. Christopher Missling "the Cris" why they say that I do not know
My point dear people is you are the most important investors in AVXL you are our 101. Starved out and low on ammo.
This will take all our sage CBD's patience and perspective and then some. Please fight on. This will all happen in its proper day.
(OH and when you sell at 20 plus I will be buying I think everyone should know 4 for 1 forward is in the cards)
Yes George is 1000% RIGHT He decide what it will be 5 to 15 years
We have a geometrically explosive issue. Marketcap of 6x will make us fund investable. One billion MCap not $5/sh but 1 bil mc One may be surprised .
Once twenty handled well maybe take a while. Just get It If you like it. 80% loaded
If you are speaking of Martin Skrelli 5th amendment plea it was completely within in his rights and also consistent with a survival instinct. He does not have a witness protection package yet. That can not come until after plea or conviction and the bargain for testimony. My guess is much will be said but little acted on for months then they will round up hundreds of others but not tell the public that they are connected Same as Madoff. Sorry to say but poor fall boy Martin smart kid from Armenians getto in New York will take the hit himself or die.I suspect that no matter what he will be killed by the same mob that Madoff worked for. Madoff had a family to protect. Keep quiet or all die. Skrelli could care less about anyone so can not control him with treats on family. He will be killed while on witness protection but it will never be realeased to public. Actually very sad story of some briliant kid from getto in NY came across some seemingly on the level hegde fund and was converted to evil. But hey if one is a sociopath can always find a way to f u c k other people on the planet. The only way Skrelli can pull this off is make him self a hero again. He has to make him self such a star as a witness and come so clean so as to be resurected in public opinion
That way if he is murdered at least someone hears about it. Otherwise his death will go unrecorded except as a footnote in a witness protection profile. I am thinking USA government knows Russian Mob kills people. Haha
F him and all the fs he is involved with
But I hope they make a Frank Abignail type guy out of him he Is to young to die. His sins seem venial compared to others in that milieu
So I say if as a Government of the people we prosecute him we must protect his existance at least for the time we have him on custody. I judge as sociopath but he never killed. I do not wish him ill. Rather I wish he will find the strengths within himself or through God to redeem himself while still on earth.
Nice charts Tom thanks. You asked what power to move market like that. Looks like swinging $500k can do it. There was 58k share block ask that egdx was moving lower and lower only 1600 of them looked like they were sold werevthey naked shorts shorts or actual closing long shares I do no know. Put that 58k rook piece with a lot of little 1 to 10k bids and asks along with some spoofs controled by hf algos and it seems they can make a game of it with $250k to $500k to manipulate market for this low float low priced stock. Question is where do they want to go from here? A three day smack down to 3.60/3.50/3.30 as has been the pattern of late? Or are we too close to conference and 12'week results?
At this point I do not put anything past these manipulators. Does AF release his weekly bio blog on wensdays? I wonder if he will take a jab at AVXL for a cover for another extreme smack down. Seems like today may have been a weapons test to see how their HF Algo weapons were working in this current market enviroment. Looks like they are working very well. For real news I expect them to run it up skyhigh then pull the rug and try to crash it. After that fiasco today I am half stock half cash. I usually do not flip but have been conditioned like Plavlovs dog to expect a smack down so sold all in the morning no where near the HOD then bite my nails to get back in under 4.20 near EOD to buy back half. Will buy the others back when see which way from here. Might be caught chasing maybe get some cheap shares. My suspicion is that there is some Psycological warfare in trying to convert buy and hold retail into swing traders where they get caught chasing. Just about happened to me today and try have loosened my adversion to trading a little to avoid some smack dlooowns. The problem for the retail is we do not know when they will switch to algos from pump to dump. I thought a saw them switch at around 11.30 but was head fake that caused me to sell then they continued run up till exactly 1pm. If there is collusion then the mm manipulators may already know and disseminated the plan on when algos switch to dump. I am guessing if there is another Positive PR tomorrow the rally will continue if not or a bash maybe back to the lower part of the trading range. At least we broke through the last high at 4.81 so if nothing else expanded the trading range and if it reverses from here and holds above last low then making higher highs and higher lows.
Thanks for consistantly posting cogent charts Tom. Good luck to all I hope AVXL smokes it tomorrow and leaves me chasing the shares I did not buy back today. I hate to play defense especially with a stock that I feel should be valued geometrically higher right now at current state of drug development. I am in agreement with the many intelligent posters here that think sky is the limit but it will be a bit bumpier and more twists and turns then most because of the low float and possible RICO involvement manipulating the stock.
GOOD LUCK AND GOD BLESS TO ALL.
Anyone care to venture an honest guess as to how far they will walk this back down. Edgx showing ask 56k sh @ 4.55 was 58k @ 4.6
Excellent ideas. I would urge caution and backtesting of the 2x and 3x sector ETFs and the BEAR 2X and 3X. I used the 2x bear financial sector ETF in the 08-09 rape and plunder of America's retirement investors. They did not work as advertised because I assume the mechanism of derivatives do not work well with extreme volitility
The derivatives can not be traded fast enough. Back study those 2x and 3xs and one will see that they all deteriorate over time bc of transaction costs and time value portion of the options they use for leverage. I do not use 3x and if I did would not hold overnight. They deteriorate quickly. The 2x are best held for very short term. Days or few weeks at most. The non leveraged may have less sizzle but perform better over time and do not suffer the same deterioration over time.
If one had suffiecient cash reserves and did not mind holding the cash one could short the long 2x3x bio ETF to get the sizzle and have the natural deterioration of the derivatives work in one's favor as well. I do not have nor would I want to hold cash reserves to cover short positions so I use the non leveraged bear ETFs. As I said I tried the leveraged ones in the financial rape of 2008 and they failed miserably.
I think your idea is fantastic but one should consider the option of shorting the long 2x etf or just using the non leveraged bear etf.
I favor picking a particularly fundamentally week bio to short as a hedge long AVXL. However I am not hedged AVXL except with cash as I am prepared to accumulate over the next several years averaging up and down as I feel AVXL is an excellent investment for a long term 10-15 years. In the unlikely event that there is some bad news that dives the price way down I will double down. I plan to double holdings over next several months and double again in 2017.
If one considers what will be the market cap of AVXL In 10 to 15 If successful one might be less apt to fret paper losses. 1999 Gilead traded with a 10 handle recently a 100 handle but split 2 for 1 five times over the years which puts each original share at $3200. AVXL is targeting a geometrically larger indication will AVXL be successful? Those probabilities are what I believe the market is under appreciating.
Also I agree 100% regarding being underexposed to the many near term catalysts for this company. A number of which have the potential to ignite a blue sky tornado appreciation in the stock price/market cap.
Good luck to all and thanks to the many great posters here I read all the posts and they are getting better with the exception of a few short clowns/trolls.
Great post. The market is there. Numbers do not lie. The main variable is AVXL probability of commercialisation which increases with every step of good data.
Spot on. I agree 100%. Also the Adaptive Trial design is cutting edge and may be misunderstood by the market. Serious investors here see the potential also serious traders see the volatility.
I agree could be an easy double in a matter of weeks. The charts and candles seem to be signaling a bottoming pattern. Sector and sub sector down hard especially small caps. Look around at other promising small companies they are all down hard. This looks like a nice loading dock price as it seems just BOUNCING around on the bottom. JMHO
Your reasoning would be sound had some of the most presigious scientist in the field had not looked at the data so far and found it to not just be good but used some specific superlatives to describe their findings. It also does not take into account the new testing protocols from FDA namely Adaptive. But I agree that the statement about "knowing by Missling" is pure conjecture as he has no way to be assured of final success.
FDA has already cleared A2-73 for ph3 DBlind with placebo controled which will determine FDA approval or not. However the results of the current Ph2 Adaptive might be robust enough to reach sat-sig. This might result in a radical revaluation of the company based on analysis of increased probability of success same as any other clinical stage biotech. There are many other potential catalyst that could cause a drastic revaluation. Govt. Grant. BP partnership. Start of new trial. Significant institutional interest. and others forseen and unforseen. All well In advance of Ph3 completion.Charts and candles likely show a bottoming here so if one likes to gamble long on biotech could be great entry or add point. JMHO But I act on it have been buying and holding for a long time and consider these prices of late to be very attractive to available cash. Good luck and thanks for your post. There is no way Missling "knows" it will be successful but I think one can surmise he is very encouraged as are many in the scientific community.
Bullish Dragonfly doji daily. Verybullish tweezer bottoms forming on weekly chart. Swing traders have got to love this on the long side. Key it seems would be to close the week close to $4 or above would make it a very bullish reversal signal. It seems like a poor short from here. No overiding reason to sell except market drift in indexes. However it seems as if bio indexes reversed intraday if so may mean the broad indexes will reverse soon as well. intraday AVXL had some strength even as a small reed in a terrible wind. Looks good for stability and sprice going forward. We may just enter the eye of storm but looks like we can weather it. I expect a high pressure storm soon rather than these low pressure down drafts we have suffered lately. Good luck to all I am adding and holding do not expect to trade because I have 2 year minimum time window until ph3 completion and any number of events could cause a geometric revaluation of the company. Potentially could happen tomorrow. Good luck and God Bless.
Looks like a good loading zone for adding here. Looks like mostly paniced retail sales and sell offer spoofing. Longs do not take loss until they sell. Unfortunately retail does not understand and panic sells at the lows. So makes me think we are close to a bottom. I am expecting an explosive move off this bottom and very soon
An easy double from here in a matter of weeks.
I agree. These prices are nice entry or add point for long term investors. Good as comes early in year for contribution limits for ira and 401k. My timeline 5 or 15 years not three days or a few months like traders. AVXL just might be a long term winner.
Yes the Goldman Saks fine was as getting a parking ticket while robbing a bank ...just pay ticket but keep the robbery money. Ha ha
Chances of very good 12 week results 80% based on the rigorous statistical analysis of the 5 week dosing data. If the data keeps coming as it has better everytime then everyone will change the tune. What this company is is a collection of top biotech and patent executives of a decisive and determined breed supported by the creame de la creame of research and clinical testing in many areas including Alzheimer's Parkinson's Epilepsy and experts on clinical design and testing with many big phama contacts. That is the company.
This is the stock ticker AVXL. Micro cap 150 mil. Small float 54% held institutions. I have no idea if those trade or not. Company was pumped by Agora to sell high price subscripion bc it has potential and of course they want to sell subscriptions. Stock skyrockets on 5 week data goes parabolic and pulls back hard on its own. Shorts jump on the momo train to drive it down further and have exerted influnces in a variety of manner ever since.
Now 12 week data is on deck. Parabola and steep decline correction or will the scientific community and public see that this is the resl deal and result in a huge gap up the does not back fill. Then what if that presentation is followed by grant or partnership deals soon after. No gap fill no shorts only longs and swingers with their core.
GLTA especially the Longs and the Corps.
AVXL keeps including statement about a new trial in a different indication targeting cognative impairment. It makes me think that news of partnership or funding for that will be released anyday now for Parkinson's or other. Good luck to all. The PR this morning was great news but this next one should be a bunker buster. I sort of suspect something again tomorrow.
Agreed. Charts do not tell the direction or path of the company. That was my point. Development of the company ultimately determines share price. But when TA chartists are saying doom and gloom. Many posts. When chart looks like boom none. So.... look at chart now and ask ....
Boom or doom haha I say boom and I stand on that.
TA set up for massive rally. Hammer harami. I expect follow through Monday on Friday midafternoon reversal. CMF turns positive. All is good. Where are the chartists now?
Take a look oneself!