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Both ARWR and AVXL were in the same place as CYDY is now. Anyone who took a substantial share hold position in Avavex after they fired Cameron Durant (current HGEN CEO) and hired Christopher Missling when AVXL traded below a dollar and was supremely bashed on all side like CYDY made millions of dollars when AVXL recieved "Market Regognition" and rose 25X in 18 months. This was done without partnership or approval or even a completed Phase 3 trial. AVXL was an OTC stock back then as well. The similarities are that both AVXL and CYDY have an outstanding drug candidate. But Leronlimab is light years more valuable.
It takes titanium cohones to be successful in pre-revenue biotech battleground disruptive companies. Also experience of seeing it finally playout positive on other stocks. Been there done that. The "Market" is a liar or blind it these stocks. Five Prime and Anavex Life Sciences are recent examples as well as Arrowhead 18 months earlier. All supremely bashed by naysayers. CytoDyn is bigger than all in potential. Adam F. called Arrowhead CEO the worst in biotech in the next 18 months it went from $200 mil market cap to $7 billion with no approvals. ARWR was a big winner as well as the "Fire Dr Missling" super bashed AVXL. AVXL rose 25x in 18 months just recently. BTW AVXL rose up from OTC and rose 5x within weeks of up listing
Five Prime was beaten down from $30 plus over 3 years to below $5 and rose to $38 in under 5 months.
These things take time. It is a hard road termed the "Regulatory Desert" where water ( funding) is scarce and disruptive companies are beset on all sides by naysayers, heartless and jealous enemies.
The Anavex drug is still unproven but it has finally been "Market Recognized ".
Resulting in a proper market cap. AWRW spent more than 20 years in the regulatory desert and might be a future Regeneron and holds a market cap reflecting "market acceptance" market cap with important BP partnerships. Buying CYDY now is like having the foresight to buy AVXL at $1.26 or ARWR at $2.60.
With Nader gone things could move quickly on the partnership front.
When I bought ARWR and AVXL in the $200 market cap range I had a current "fair market cap" valuation of $1-3 billion on "market recognition". The goal is not Regulatory Aporoval it is "Market Recognition".
The market recognition value, I place on CYDY is $3-7 billion just as it sits now on potential alone but will require an up list.
For an example of an Arrowhead type stock than spent more than 20 years in the Regulatory Desert and completely and consistently bashed see NWBO.
As a long you have to endure a London type blitz and emerge fighting accumulating all the while.
One must be willing to hold 5 years or more during the down turns and be confident enough in your own DD not to sell to soon in the 18 months of the "worm turn" of the "market acceptance " rapid upward valuation curve.
Know What You Hold!
U.S.A. pharmaceutical consumers HAVE to pay more than anyone else because BP drug companies here have the expense of exerting influence on the FDA so FDA can be captured to protect BP profits here and abroad.
Five Prime market cap was below $250 million before BPs started to take interest in FPRX cancer drug after Phase 2. Prior to even the start of Phase 3 it was bought by Amgen for $1.9 billion.
Know what you hold.
Amgen bought FPRX not even in Phase 3 for $38. FPRX traded below $5 five months earlier before the bidding war started. FPRX drug of interest for the buyout was a immuno- cancer drug for Gastric Cancer.
Amgen bought out Five Prime FPRX in a bidding war in April 2021. Five Prime was not even in Phase 3 but their immuno-cancer drug was Phase 3 ready. FPRX traded below $5 five months earlier after a three year decline in share price.
Retail shorts are by definition of short holding on margin of $2.50 cash margin per share and 99% of longs hold the stock in non-margined positions.
I do firmly believe CYDY can remain solvent long after these types of shorts are forced to cover. One piece of awesome news overnight someday could wipe them out. Either they are very brave to continue to hold as short as the worm has likely turned or they do not know which way is up. I would think the the professional shorts would likely cover to take profits at this point.
Line up of positive news flow going forward might include.
a) New CEO pharma industry vet
b) awesome 700mg Nash data
c) BLA for HIV
d) partnership with cash infusion
e) well subscribed secondary offering
f) enrollments in trials
g) end of SEC investigation where focus squarely on Nader and not company.
Watching Time & Sales today. Looks like >80% on buy side. MM are feeding the buyers shares not sure where all those shares are coming from but 5 million shares traded first half of day and the log jam @$0.60 now broken. We will watch the rest of the day. Hoping for continuation of good news flow.
A Reverse Split with surprise uplift to Nasdaq on the news of good 700 mg Nash with partnership in Nash and the resulting infusion of cash to meet the minimum shareholder equity requirements of Nasdaq up listing would be great. Lots of stars would have to align for such a black swan event but I have seen it before in a stock I hold.
I will hold based on slow and steady forward progress. I am not looking for short term price appreciation and consider this a two to five year journey to profitability.
A change for the better in management is a very fundamental improvement.
New CEO might be a VP or Science/Regulatory Officer from a partnering Pharma. A BP I hope.
The market for CYDY stock jumped when Nader's webcast was canceled. So now the CEO is cancelled so no more of these webcast to delight the sellers. This likely signals the end of those to be replaced with quiet professional C-Suite. CytoDyn can keep the sellers guessing and just report news when it happens instead of fluffy promises. The meat is all taken off the bone of the short ribs so we may get a sustainable rise in share price as sellers move on to other companies to short sell. No More Fluff out of CytoDyn. Time to move LL forward quietly with deliberate speed.
New dawn. Always darkest before the dawn looks like sun maybe shining soon on LL and CytoDyn. Even if Nadder had not made mistakes and mis-steps it was time for a CEO with Pharmaceutical experience.
This makes me think that the SEC focused on Nadder and not the company. The SEC may have communicated concerns the maybe Nadder was over enthusiastic in some of his statements. If this results in a much better CEO with Pharmaceutical experience and signals the end of the SEC investigation in regards to CytoDyn it would be a double positive.
No worries. It is the logic and discernment of arguements that count.
Seriously manipulated biotech stocks that have been price suppressed for years can and have moved 600% on no news what so ever that was directly related to the stock such as trial results, approvals or buyout. No news Zip! One of my holding in Summer 2020 moved up from $5 and $300 million Market Cap to peak at $30 share in a matter of just a few days. It was a heavily shorted battleground stock like NWBO that had a cadre of persistent and prolific naysayers. Just like NWBO. 18 months earlier in Dec 2018 it traded as low as $1.26.Today it trades at $13 handle having persisted for many months at $14-18. Arrowhead did the same thing a few years earlier. Before any approvals went from $3 to $70 plus in less than 18 months. Also look at Cassava. There are many such examples I just named the ones I owned and followed. One should not discount the power of Wall Street and the Market to supercharge Biotech stocks. One big whale like Ark Investments or Baker Bro taking a position can 10x the stock in days before you have time even to think "who done it or what happened" Sometimes when the downward manipulation pressure is removed the stocks just flash over to a 5-15x higher valuation.
BTW a curious feature of most of these flash over biotechs have in common is they were heavily criticized by Adam Funkstain or whatever that disengenous journalist name is.
After following daily the intraday. charts of some of these battleground stocks that are price suppressed by high frequency algo trading there is what I believe to be a characteristic "upside down smile" pattern of short cover short. A sufficient amount of day trading could also manifest in such a intraday chart. Today and yesterday are classic examples of algos dominating the trading.
Anak Krakatoa - Son of Krakatoa! Born from the Caldera of the father. Vulcanologists predict it will have the potential to be even larger than the original. Vulcanism of this magnitude has the potential to reverse global warming.
A good example of a "Gap and Trap". MM Algos use this against short term traders and naive believers of efficient markets. The idea is that the news causes or the MM cause the rise in premarket when volumes are thin then short it all day knowing the news is out and unlikely for follow on news for at least a few days. Traders buying the spike get trapped and the short termers might bail with a loss. Investors might take a few days to do analysis then add or take a starter position and add over many months. MM algos beat traders over the short term. The advantage fundamental long term investors have is the long term hold periods where technicals and algorithms lose their sway.
You will have no arguement from me, Sir! ;)
Watch while a BP buys out Regnum and gains the distribution rights for LL in HIV.
What will be the consensus sentiment for CYDY be in such an scenario?
ViiV
CytoDyn may have a catalyst hidden in plain sight. Connect the dots.
Long CYDY!
In a battleground stock good news is sold down. If what you fantasize comes true then bad news out of the way could start a short cover rally as bad news out of the way much like good news is sold down as it is out of the way.
Paradoxical. But not really as stocks go through phases when Wall Street wants to "distribute" stocks to retail it cause a steady months climb where it is sold to retail. When Wall Street wants a position in a stock it is sold down to the buy point where it is accumulated. This cycle is most evident in blue chips but more easily done in smaller caps.
Case in point Boeing Feb 2016 the stock spiked down to $112 on the Goldman Saks short and then rose to over $400 in the next 18 months through Institutional accumulation as well as a $50 Billion Boeing stock buy back. On information and belief international organized crime RICOs are involved in many of these as are the Wirehouse Firms. There is not enough meat on the bone of CYDY for these large players to mess with. So amateur pisants like Andrew Left and little Timmy Sykes organize shorts attack on these little stocks as will as Hedge Fund shorts who short a plethora of small cap biotechs. Easy money for them. Very unlikely that the rare OTC survivor blows up that short position of the portfolio of a large number of stocks shorted. Anyone that picks individual stocks to short is holding wet dynamite especially if their account is less than $25 million as they must hold $2.50 per share cash as margin for every share held short.
The Wire House Firm that manufactured the short shares and loaned them to the short seller wants the short borrowing the naked short shares to do well because then they can pay the vig and continue to be a customer of borrowed naked shares. If the short seller gets wiped out then the account of the short seller is liquidated and transfered to the Firm that manufactured the phantom shares. Pure profit as the Wire House never borrowed the shares so no one to pay back.
Shall we play Russian Roulette with CytoDyn stock?
Good one I did not think about that. It might create quite the gap as shorts buy-cover in Germany to try to avoid getting wiped out on Tuesday in USA. New buyers and short covering it could be a complete stock revaluation at who knows how high.
A Holiday on a Monday would be the best time to release topline data if the Journal was scheduled for online preprint on the following Tuesday.
Booth trumps Tote Bag! HaHa Coming Soon!
Thank you excellent!
A stratospheric rise like Amgen or Intuitive Surgical back in the day driven by ever increasing revenues? If so maybe good to never sell ever and hold forever. Live well on the dividends.
Nor would they have any motivation or desire to do so. No where is irritating and utter ignorance accepted. Even here.
$30 per share or $30 billion market cap is actually very likely given the $21 billion Gilead paid for Immunomedics a cancer drug company with a faction of the potential of DCVax/NWBO. So I view your estimate as based on empirical evidence but consider it conservative or FLOOR PRICE. $30 at a MINIMUM.
Good job. Wait a year or two.. They just are using knowledge learned from 1st candidate with 2nd better candidate. Could be 10 bagger in 2-3 years. I have time to Wait. Well managed and this is a BP supported roll out type company like MRUS.
Too big of a move for a technical bounce 36% in less than 3 hours. Wall Street whispers. Are partnering of buyout suitors allowed to buy on open market before they buy the rest by tender offer or buy 50-100 millions of shares in a partnership deal?
The Gates Foundation took a position and partnered with Vir Bio today. Things maybe in the works. VIR was up big yesterday before the news today and pulled back a bit on the news. Buy the rumour sell the news because the Big Boys hear of it before it hits the PR wire.
Did Big Wall Street types catch a whisper of a positive development? That is what the price action could mean.
Looks like a short cover rally or technical traders or both. CYDY could explode upwards if a positive news is announced or fade if not.
Dead cat bounce or the start of major recovery. Time is on side of longs. By definition short positions are always on margin and could have forced buy in margin calls if a major positive catalyst. Stay tuned, longs positions are secure they can either enjoy the recovery or patiently hold longer if nothing develops.
Down gap to fill at $0.70.
RSI is about to break up above 30% a technical buy signal for tech traders.
Question for the technically astute posters. What is the probable magnitude and ferocity of a move in a stock when the RSI is below 24% and a major positive catalyst is announced? Also the sequence counter array will be at 9 down bars on FRIDAY 1 14 2022. Shorts are having a party but rarely does such an over sold contidion last for more than 2 weeks.
The the 10k also was reporting as of Nov 30th and did not include the Paulson raise. The cancellation of the Q&A could be for many reasons. The good news not ready yet or there is some bad news. If bad will be PR Friday after close. If good news will be when it is ready. Shorts can make bank by covering after the bad news or wait and lose a lot of unrealized gains or get blown up on the CYDY news if it is partnership. If no news after Friday close then chance of good news delayed rises exponentially.
Well the Market is digesting the 10q. So that news is out of the way. If there is supstaintial short interest they may want to start to cover before the next news which could be good.
WTF? Selling shareholders had 96 million shares of I assume warrants and option so now they can dump for .28 or is it because they are registered so they can be sold in a buyout or after some horizon event? I do not have a clue what is happening with the big dump in price other than that selling sharehold DEC registration. They do not dilute further because they were already out there. Not newly issued shares and not sold yet so wondering what is up with the 7% slide in SP.
Yes 4.20 easy. Do not even have to be smoking suppin
RGMP stock up 210% on CYDY deal.