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I agree with this post. However due to emotional reactions of FOMO and short covering I see at least the possibility of a $20 to $35 million market cap based on M&A activity in Biotechs in the last few years. If no buyout or partnerships putting that higher floor in then if it substaintially holds through approval then the professional investors/institutions will assess the new risks of execution of business plan post approval. This might manifest in a price drop after approval and NWBO might be rated according to how well they are doing as a revenue Company together with potential expanded indications.
Many or a predominate number of Biotechs have the largest percentage increases in value prior to approval based on "Market appriecation" of potential.
A striking example of this was seen in Biogen Market cap rise when BIIB did an about face on the Alzheimer's drug and switched from shelving the program to reviving it. Now know as Aduhelm it faces huge execution risks.
DD you read the article as I did. It was intended to echo a ludicrous claim that Linda Powers built out the factory located in Sawston UK with NWBO funds for the benefit of Linda Powers and not NWBO. These are just child like fears or fear mongering of complex business development plans involving several parties. The article was to further promote that fear mongering.
One needs to recognize what are emotional responses to their investments. Complaining about delays and dilution when they are one of the most common traits of pre-revenue biotechs might be an emotional reaction especially when the complaining will not change anything in regards to what is complained about.
Are emotions especially negative emotions suitable for ones investments.
When delays or temporary setbacks cause the stock price to fall a logical reaction might be to reassess the Investment and if still has the viability that previously that made it attractive at a higher price then the logical reaction would be to buy more at the lower price not sell in a fit of anger or disappointment.
Accumulating NWBO...Large and Long Term.
To get up to speed to replace FDA as far as drugs go and leave food and tobacco with FDA. One can hope.
NWBO PRs are now super charged. Look at all the recent ones. They are coming in fast and low like Ukrainian Mig-29s defending Ukraine. 10 shot down 6 by one pilot in a single day.
Bread crumbs with plauable deniablity. Perfection unleashed. Victory Lap for only the Loyal shareholders that are paying attention. Let it Bleed!!
Welcome back Flipper44. You are exactly right. NWBO clearly states "More Effective" where before was "Designed to be More Effective"
Love all you have done over the years glad to have you on back on deck in the Command Bridge.
Rules of Karma state you should be fully invested for the Victory.
The ideal situation for NWBO would be to get a cash infusion from a partnership with Merck or other BP on a combo that gives credibility and the required shareholder equity to up list to a major market before the release of TLD. I can not place any probability on such a scenario but it would seem extremely advantageous for many reasons if it could be done.
This is really good stuff in this post!
Well at least we will be armed with your definition of the meaning "animal spirits".
A mechanical explanation of why stocks seem to decline after a reverse split is the margin requirements of short sales. A normal margin account must hold $2.50 cash for margin at a minimum for each share sold short so one can use more margin leverage after the reverse split. Holding $2.50 cash per share short on a $1 or $0.50 priced stock ties up a lot of cash so negative leverage. When $5 or above one can short with positive leverage with the same amount of cash.
Interesting idea but impossible. US has never shared a single B-52 not with NATO not with UK and can not. It is a Nuclear Capable Platform. The airplane to counter armour is the A-10 Warthog ground attack aircraft. Ukraine still has most of their Mig 29s but those are to be used to ensure Russia does not gain control of the Air War. Ukraine is being supplied Javelin anti-armour ground launched missiles and Stinger shoulder launched anti-aircraft missiles. Those are most effective especially in this type of War. I MO.
And now enrollments are completed for the Alport syndrome trial.
In the business world there are two categories of executives. The Ican and the Icant. Linda Powers is a powerful Ican Icon. Resilience of the CEO leads the Company to the outcome that the CEO has determined.
Good point. What I am seeing is a build up on on fronts especially logistics that might be prelude to a shock and awe type rapid advance on TLD plus Journal.
Never value undeveloped real estate for what it can be liquidated for today. Follow the development plan then if successful the vision is realized. In the case of NWBO one does not have to do anything as a business Shark and a Medical genius is doing everything for you. Relax. $1 means nothing except cost more to accumulate more shares. Any expense incurred by shareholder would be to get a bigger slice by buying more.
Think big think positive. This has a extreme positive risk/reward ratio. No real estate taxes to pay on ones holdings. Instead plan on minimizing future tax by Roth and backdoor Roth.
I agree. In my experience and from my less than exhaustive research the largest moves in market cap in disruptive Biotechs come before approvals . They come before approval on one overriding factor based on sentiment the most powerful factor that moves stocks , perseption and recognition. I call this the "Market Acceptance" phenomena. Once TLD is released together with a laudatory Journal evaluation of the science what follows is rapid cognition that approval is fait accompli. As the risk of failure approaches the zero asymptote the stock price goes parabolic and the HFT Algos of trading servers placed within a few blocks of the trading nodes in New York, Chicago, Philadelphia, San Francisco and Kansas City get lit up. The result is that the stocks trade so much so fast and wash traded so fast that often times the stock trades multiples of all outstanding shares in a single day. I have watched in stocks I have held and many I was just watching. Halt reverse halt reverse again halt halt reverse again. It peaks then will retrace predictably approximately 50% from the peak to where it started. The nimble HFT shorts will cover on the way up and reshort thousands of times. Hand off! The computers are in control. The Clay trader type day traders can jump in and out several times a day and have a good day. But make no mistake super risky as halts will reverse and trap. The super computers are in complete control. I am fairly confident the new trading range for NWBO will settle in after one of these "revaluation" events and that this has a high probabily to occur at TLD with Journal.
Buy before not on that date unless one is short. Ha Ha
Yes. Clearly.
I appreciate this reply. So, Survivor, it seems you are not only true but very brave. You were very close to leaving Earth but you are still here. There must be something for you to do here still on this Planet, even if only as an example of fidelity and courage. A Company like NWBO that has brave and steadfast management is likely to have loyal shareholders cut from the same cloth. Such as yourself and the other fine posters on this message board that give honestly and fearlessly to this endeavour.
It is an honor to read your story, Sir.
Long NWBO.
That is helpful. Thanks for sharing. You are true blood, Survivor.
You are welcome. That is one of the main ways the game is rigged. Many of the rules do not apply to the big shots and the rules that do are rarely enforced.
Excellent.
Investors like Bigger or any entity with account over $25 million are exempt from SEC regulations governing margin requirements. They can leverage as much as their Wire House Broker allows them.
Dr. David Fairbanks Welch PhD.E
CEO and Founder of Infinera (laser optical transport see Ciena)
Founder of 4-Good Ventures LLC.
www.4-good.com
Investing to further the Grand Challenges to leave the World a better place.
Was this the wealthy California Investor alluded to in past CytoDyn presentations?
Looks like CytoDyn has a heavy weight benefactor in their corner now.
Well said.
Completely sure of what to think of Matt Stafford. Completed 10 of first 11 passes and won Super Bowl. SMH.
God bless her and praying for her return to health.
My personal opinion as experience informs me is that NWBO might balloon in price before TLD on no news. When either the Market accepts the Long Thesis or Short Sellers are faced with a liquidity crisis from another one of their short basket stocks when it balloons in price on News. The major wins I have had all come out of the blue where the stocks shoot up on no news at all not approval and not Phase 3 data. I call it the "Blue Sky Tornado" effect where supremely undervalued stocks readjust to closer to FMV in a matter of days on no apparent news.
NWBO fits all criteria for such a surprise move. One needs to place there own value on the asset much like undeveloped real estate but much or volatile.
NWBO is worth at least $10-20 billion market cap right NOW before release of the data from what we know as facts and recent buyouts of companies and drug assets with not even completed Phase 3s.
Good point. Thank you. To say otherwise would be illogical.
Not far fetched. Happens enough to make it a possibility. I can give you several recent examples where stocks of this size market cap 10x or as much as 25xed explosion upwards in 18 months from below $2 after being manipulated for years at a low price and it was never on a buy out or an approval. Just market acceptance of the investment potential. No doubt that IHO that the drug has potential it just needs to make it through the regulatory and financing desert.
If you believe hold. If you believe do not sell or the break even point or even a double. Everyone has there own considerations and it is not advice from me. If one averages in over a few years than would it not make sense to average out over a few years?
The manipulators want to condition you to sell too cheap after the fortunes of the company shift upwards by psyc-ops of holding the stock at depressed prices for a very long time.
Great. Thank you. There might be a possibility that after the patent is allowed that Merck could step forward with financial backing of some sort as partnering on the further Keytuda combo trials footing the bills and possibly paying upfront and milestone payments with % royalties.
In my experience the big moves in these types of biotech in this type of situation happen before TLD of the pivotal trials.
I call this the "Market Accepance Theory"
When this happens the company is revalued by the Market and the stock can 10x in just a few weeks. A partnership with Merck would do just that. The influx of upfront cash might allow up listing to major exchange. Subsequently NWBO could finish with the TLD and Publication but the Journal would be not as necessary as the Merck would lend a tremendous amount of credibility to NWBO. This would be one of the best ways to realize the fair market value of NWBO shares and allow the Institutions to get in early at $5-10 BEFORE TLD.
It looks to be a patent covering at a MINIMUM they combination of DCVAX with drugs of the class of Keytuda.
SOC for squamous cell head and neck cancer is Tomographic directed radiation combined with cisplatin or other chemo. Since it takes following each patient for 5 years to see if recurrence then study of this new methods of delivering the radiation with these Alpha seed radiation admitting particals improves on SOC. Squamous cell carcinoma located in head and next regions are one of the most successfully treated cancers where most patients are effectively cured. At what cost is the treatment? Will the cancer centers just mothball their expensive GE Tomoradiation machines they might still be paying for? Abandoning a treatment just developed in 2007 where they have had outstandingly success in effectively curing greater the 90-95%? Also these trials can not be randomized to placebo.
Then who would sign up for the trial when they can be effectively cured with SOC.
At best the Alpha seeds would be an improvement of radiation delivery. There is a similar technology used for prostate cancer for a number of years but has not been used for other cancers yet that I have heard of. The Alpha seeds might be a useful advance of radiation therapies but in no shape or form would it compete with DCVAX. IMHO.
Gary sorry to learn that you lost your sister. May she be with the Lord forever and forever in your heart.
Unequivocally YES! Absolutely. I have not followed NWBO for as long as many here but have followed followed since approx 2008 and the number of short and distort followed by what seemed to be coordinated short selling attacks immediately on the release and sometimes just hours or minutes before the release of some hit piece by Adam F of the Street.com or Citron or its ilk is astounding.
This might get Political as well. If the Biden Aminstrations newly relaunched Moon Shot vs Cancer gets behind NWBO after TLD the Public might want to know why NWBO was so delayed and hamstrung in its efforts and forced to walk though "The Valley of Death" beset on all sides by the tyranny and inequities of evil criminals. Moon Shot vs Cancer with NWBO and a Captial Riot type DOJ dragnet against criminal short sellers equals a tremendous amount of Political Capital. Midterm elections are around the corner. Buckle Up or Bug Out depending which side one is on. Long or Short.
Good news for Companies beset by short sellers especially ones where illegal and collusive actions were used by the likes of Citron and Culper. The DOJ is engaged in dragnet operations against Sixty short trading firms. A particularly high profile among these sixty short and distort firms is Citron and it's principle Andrew Left. News broke today from Bloomberg that the FBI has seized Andrew Left's computers.
Things are heating up and not in a good way for the network of collusive and therefore illegal short trading trading firms.
There has been evidence or reputed connections in these networks that include certain unsavory offshore entities including illegal drug cartels and Russian Organized Crime masquerading as "Family Office" funds.
This investor is 100% behind NWBO and clearing out some of the Racketeering on Wall Street.
There is an investigation by DOJ involving 60 trading firms Citron seems to be top target. He computers were seized. 99.9 chance he will serve a mandatory prison sentence. CytoDyn is not a trading firm so not one of the 60 but they were a top short and distort target of A. Left's Citron.
Ok I will leave to to the reader's to do their own deductions of this evidence. So Nader stock selling looked bad and in fact could have been motivated by improper however it could also have been perfectly legal and protected by following SEC Securities Regulations and forward looking statements. In other words afforded Safe Harbor protection. No safe harbor for outsiders who illegally conspire to manipulate stocks for personal gain, motivated by hate or financial terrorism.
DOJ has gotten a handle on these mass prosecutions that threaten National Security like the Capital Hill takeover riot. Mass manipulation of the Financial Markets are no less a threat to National Security.
Those with some involvement in this bragged about crime from June 30 2020 or connected in any way to the short sellers currently the target of this international dragnet might think about cooperation with the DOJ to lessen possible penalties. These crimes have mandatory prison sentences meaning the Judge has no choice but to issue prison sentences. No probation. The only way out is full cooperation with FBI and Federal Prosecutors.
Sorry to spoil anyone's fantasy about CytoDyn being the target.
So the DOJ Investigation now shows by having FBI seizing computers of suspects who the targets are. If the Feds seize computers you are a target. Did they seize CytoDyn or Nader's computers. No? Well then maybe they are not targets and never were or the Investigation exonerated them before they needed the computers for evidence.
No wishes no illusions. Two to five year timeline.
Ha Ha talk about early I was into both Plug Power and Gilead in 1999 held and held. GILD WAS a bitch as it was so slow. But Haha PLUG it is close to break even. Not good to be early unless GILD ARWR SAGE AVXL CYDY NWBO.
The last two have more as much potential as Gilead. Arrowhead has more potential than Regereron at @$50 ARWR wow the best bet.
I expect to buy 200000 two hundred thousand share of CYDY over the next 6 months. Whatever the price.
CytoDyn is entering to low ebb of a 5 to 7 year turn to massive market cap.
I second this nomination for sticky post. Flipper's post maybe the clearest vision and most profound post in years.
Wow! Bravo Flipper! Excellent summation of the brilliant work of NWBO to get this important cancer treatment litterally to the very door step not only of approval but wide spread availability to patients and Doctors/Hospitals.