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<< Given the interest in FOB's and cost containment in the healthcare industry and GTC's obvious assets (ADCC advantage, scalability, low cost) I have a difficult time understanding why the pharmaceutical industry isn't beating down the doors of GTC now that the FDA has unequivocally shown that it has no problemo with the platform.>>
In fact i think it is arrogance. in fact it is passing a point of no return, in fact it is what has been stated before, bigger revenues on bigger investments etc.
It will take some time but the winners will overtake the stainless steel vats and the winners can be found in China and the far East.
History is repeating itself yet on another level. This time it is the size that matters.
After miniaturizing the optical industry, (from a scolarship at Leica in the fifties, students transferred the optical technology to Japan where Minolta, Ricoh, Pentax duplicated the camera's, and due to the fact that the Japanese had so an enormous alphabet a teletypewriter was impossible they transferred the optical techn. into fax and later on to laser, thus enabeling the copier to be born and a semi conductor pattern to be be minimized to a chip) the time has come to conquer the medicine world industry. It is the size that matters. China has as much as bright students as America has students. I'm negative in casu BP. the fact they run out of inventions and patents tells the story.
Is there is a FDA or EMEA in China? They just counterfeight what covers their needs and before you know wave goodbye. Give or take a decade and western BP is decimized to sp.
<The prospect of transgenics becoming controlled by the French industry is nuts!>
What do you mean by this?
You can say a lot of the French (arrogance, chauvinists (what they are not) but they sure are innovative.
Rufus, no offence ment just my thoughts.
With the dispute between JL and Vinny it is clear we are comming to a moment that it is obvious that something is on the brink to happen.
I see you both arguing in a way a BOD is discussing this.
(I think that medium sized BP and small sized BP is not interested ( and probably can not afford) the losses of Biotech’s start ups and companies like GTCB).
Jesse I can understand your point of view regarding the initial start ups (pleonasm?) and their links to cell culture. I think that’s a fact. So ok forget these start up’s. If a company is willing to take a certain risk all parameters of the small biotech will be taken into account. So be it; entrepeneurs.
But I think it’s a fact also what Vinny states. If you are to discuss where to put your money as BP the slide of consensus in a board room is, or will alter towards what is or will be in the medium run so let say 4/three years, profitable. Not as to diversify and broaden the portfolio (I don’t think this is a niche market, it requires a separate unit under the holding of a company) but as a strategic move.
The approval in this scenario is (was) of the same importance as the legislation towards FOB and FOBB will be.
I don’t think is a mere coincidence that Ovation is taken over the day after approval, and the next step whitin this scenario lays the hands of the legislation. As soon they shift towards cost reduction, and that moment maybe not so far seen the exploding costs of handling the credit crunch, GTCB has signed a contract yet.
<<it's been trading like shit for four years>>
No 3 years ago in august shorts covered, and the price spiked to 2.2. So four years minus two days to be exact.
groet uit het rivierengebied
<<relevance to gtcb????>>
If Crucell is taken over by Wyeth, and Wyeth is taken over by Pfizer, i think other BP will search for partners and NPPP's as well.
IMO Pfizer's bid forms the start of new round of take overs this year, in which production is an essential part.
Thus my remark size matters.
Size of global production (China, in spite of proprietary aspects) and speed of production capacity (breedings from mice, goats or even cows)
http://www.crucell.com/Research
Crucell's PER.C6® production line is an excellent system, but soon in hands of Wyeth (maybe Pfizer) or maybe Sanofi Aventis.
It's a shot in the dark how things change after Atryn approvel for GTCB, but seen from the (re)esthablished big Pharma companies, there is a plausible chance that a NPPP will be an essential part of their activity. The question remains how many small biotech's besides Pharming and GTCB offer these platforms.
The question remains will it be GTCB or the French gouvernment to enjoy the advantages.
V (with a T after basemen)
Thanks for updating:
Lipitor Pfizer 2011
Seretide Glaxosmithkline 2010
Plavix BMS/Sanofi Aventis 2011
Nexium Astra Zeneca 2014
Diovan Novartis 2012
Zyprexa Eli Lilly 2011
Singulair Merck 2012
Seroquel Astra Zeneca 2011
Risperdal Eli Lilly 2009
Norvasc Pfizer expired
Note these are European names. Not clear in which way they differ from US brands.
More comments please.
V.
<<OK Wyeth.>>
enfour,
are you referring to Wyeth/Pfizer?
(Dutch Crucell is in Wyeth's spotlight, but Wyeth is in Pfizer's spotlight: big and bigger fish)
- Pfizer's Lipitor expires 2010-
- Crucell's vaccin production system is called PER.C6®-
I wonder how many biotech's with a production system remain.
Size matters, not one paricular pipeline drug IMO.
V.
<<Old student: c'est la vie....>>
to which should be added "say the old folks
It goes to show you never can tell".
(Chuck Berry).
Or (Berra, Sam Goldwin, Bohr, De Mille): it's tough to make predictions especially about the future.
Best wishes for 2009!
V.
<<Form to submit ideas:
http://change.gov/page/s/yourstory >>
As I am living on the east-side of the Atlantic can someone provide me an adress what I can use to post my opinion and idea for change.com. I need a zip Postal code. Any code will do.
Or can someone post my idea:
as I'm as an European following your health debate I would like to recommend to your attention the case of a small American biotech comp. called GTCB. This company is about making Follow-On-Biologics out of milk from cow's and goats. (and many more difficult to express proteïns).
Now,that, what is called Big Pharma is only interested in producing money, (ok a bit exaggerated) this firm is on the treshold to be aquired by a French national owned organisation called LFB.
Though I'm Francophile I think that the US must in some form protect their (national) IP. Improvement from credit crunch and fatalism is to my humble conviction possible only by elan and "flip"innovation. And that is exactly what GTCB is about.
Thank you for your attention. You can find GTCB at www.gtcb.com
TIA
Voodoo in my basement, and you know what it means.
<<Is not the price low enough??? Why don't you close your position and move your whining to another board.>>
do not misunderstand me, your reaction is mine (Is not the price low enough???) As I'm SH in Pharming as well as in GTCb (since '04 and holding!) I see equal patterns in both companies. Today PHARM was up 8% on good news at 10 A.M, and immediately it went down where it was. For the BOD it forms a tour de force to get the Co. where it belongs, so my reaction.
PS together with the wailing dollar i'm down with GTC on average 65%. This position does not hurt me so much and i'm waiting and reading this board with interest. It makes no sense to recommend another one since i'm what in a nondescript way is meant: "a believer" Bye Caiostro!
voodoo in my basement
<<Yes Dr. Cox could be doing just that. The rosy prediction of a partner for Atryn by the end of 07 is perhaps an example of the type of fiddling while Rome burns that could be occurring. I hope that is not the case but the days are ticking by and cash is burning. The previous actions of GTCB on the financial side do not inspire confidence which is the reason for the languishing PPS. Please Geoff don't be a Dick Fuld.
Dr. Cox isn't Dick Fuld. I think mngt is fed up by the way some shareholders are making small e.g. 3, 4, 5% profits at sudden occasional spikes, and in the meantime bash the the company down the sink. It will take a long, long time to restore the pps. in this way. If i were in the board my goal would be to go private as soon as possible. This is frustrating.
V.
From the Timesonline
<<The statement is the latest twist in the growing row over decisions by Nice. Earlier this month Nice caused an outcry in a preliminary decision when it rejected the use of Avastin (also known as bevacizumab), Sutent (sunitinib), Nexavar (sorafenib) and Torisel (temsirolimus) as too expensive to treat kidney cancer.
“The alternative to these drugs for many patients is death,” said Jonathan Waxman, professor of oncology at Imperial College, London. “Nice is making terrible mistakes.” >>
Is this J. Waxman the same as the one who is involved in the "Waxman act" in the states? It was the Waxman act though, a sort of tribunal by which the industry, researchers, PhD's, patients etc, were heard concerning rising health costs.
full article:
http://143.252.148.161/tol/news/uk/health/article4538256.ece
voodooinmybasement
<<The 30-day period mentioned in GTC’s PR on the Ovation deal is based on the default waiting period for Hart-Scott-Rodino review.
It’s barely possible that in this case the regulators asked for additional information on the deal. If this is the reason for the holdup in closing, it’s not GTC’s fault.
On the other hand, if the holdup in closing is a disagreement between GTC and Ovation on the closing terms, that’s an altogether different animal.
Ovation says that they signed a definitive agreement with GTC the 23 june. Can it be suspended or withdraw by the Hart-Scott-Rodino review?
V
1) Almost out of cash
2) Much too high cash burn
3) Too much broken promises and lies
4) Atryn revenues Europe very very modest
5) Warning Nasdaq delisting
6) Reserve Split
7) Probably another dilution
8) DIC results Phase II by Leo postponed again
9) Very bad management and Public Relations
10) Growing amount shareholders who lost faith in GTCB
the gospel of the hidden agenda
come on it's weekend spend some time with your family
V.
On peut commencer avec le Franglais.
Avec des mots et expressions simple comme
"otdok" et "eppy ouwer".
mes meilleur voix pour la prochain annee.
Happy new year, beste wensen voor '08.
Voodooinmybasement
Novartis Builds Its Antibodies
LONDON - Biotechnology companies usually have to renew contracts every two to three years. Therefore it's not surprising that shares in German antibody research company MorphoSys shot up after Swiss drug maker Novartis announced a 10-year contract with the company worth over $1 billion.
http://www.forbes.com/2007/12/03/morphosys-novartis-antibody-markets-equity-cx_vr_1203markets09.html?partner=msn
That's one. The next step, to me and correct if wrong, will be the aquisition of a production infrastructure.
Voodoo in my basement
Re. <<GTCB + 9.29%
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=GTCB>>
It went up 9% with a mere 95k; how much was needed to touch the low 90's on tue/wednesday? Am I right (if my memory serves me well) was it 280k?
Very good indeed: http://razorland55.free.fr/friend01/Question_Mark2.jpg
Black Swan?
V.
That's presumably the answer to msg #5163.
Right, but the surplus of money in the market generated bij the abnamro take over by fortis cs, looking for investments on wednesday, forms a north heading factor also Imho.
indication
Do not quite get the itallic.
Is the indication for Hae the same using Rh C1-inh as C1-inh made by Lev?
V.
Concerning Orphan Drug Act in relation to Lev/Pharming
Can someone expertise on this item.
Is market exclusivity granted for the first product in a class licensed for the treatment of a rare disease?
HAE is considered to be a rare disease under the Orphan Drug Act, and companies may obtain orphan drug status for therapies that are developed for this indication.
http://ir.10kwizard.com/filing.php?repo=tenk&ipage=4537451&doc=1&num=12&total=96&...
as: The 1992 amendment:
More than one sponsor can receive designation for the same drug for the same use; the seven-year marketing exclusivity is given to the first sponsor to file a complete NDA .
http://www.orphanxchange.org/OXC/cgi-bin/oxc_about_drug.php
Excusez le copie/colle
my sense of humor regarding matters of manipulation has been dulled to the point that I can't tell if you are joking.
Or to put it straight forward:
are these facts figures and logics
or lore legend and magic?
In any case, the stuff is useful for another Dan Brownesque, P2-, Pope John Paul I, Blackfraiers bridge code plot.
Voodooinmybasement
Just my attempt at a little satire, if it made anyone smile
then thats just a good thing. :^)
Sigh, write a book!
<<Partnering isn't a cake walk evidently, it seems to be quite difficult. I'd like to gain some insight that's all.>>
Apart from:
a. the fact that i'm not fluently English
b. the lady speaker during the CC very distorted tried to explain how to pose a question (which i could not decipher "press the control key and 1"??)
I'd better asked CEO Cox during the Q&A about this "insight".
But this completely aside
V.
Thanks Dew,
yes before " feb. 2006 "
<<I do not understand your question. Please clarify.>>
Would not suppose it's a mere reciproce question about the size of the pocket.
Other aspects (OK maybe way out) such as linking your name to a new production platform could form a barrier as there will be contracts between b.e. Novo Nordisk/Wyeth and the blood plasma industry.
So what could form a hurdle (excuse me for the direct way of formulating) as the advantages are more or less clear.
Partnering isn't a cake walk evidently, it seems to be quite difficult. I'd like to gain some insight that's all.
V.
<<From Dr. Cox’s remarks on the 2Q07 CC (emphasis added):>>........
<< large, well financed, commercial partner is an important objective for GTC to achieve the market presence and opportunity which we believe ATryn represents, and I look forward to updating you on our progress.>>
Dew et all,
not that much forecast value;
but at which stage was partnering in Europe announced?
Was it end of phase II or just before/after filing?
What are the assets both for partner as well for the company?
V.
<<Let your secret sympathies and your compassion be always with the under dog in the fight - this is magnanimity; but bet on the other one - this is business.
Mark Twain>>
Wise...
at first glance one would catagorize CTCB as underdog
Voodoo
<<Just hit 99 cents. Unbelieveable this stock price is so low. Something is really really not right here.>>
Its obvious an anti-lobby.
Selling 80k. in a nervous (European) market is pointing to a system to lower price and get GTC tank and us scammed. That's my opinion.
Who it is (Genzyme or another biotech, hedgefunds, smart European traders eager to smoke out that bunch of stupid goat-believah skitrow visiting canmen) and why ($$ or defending existing ways of protein production) let's speculate, but it's a waste of time.
&&
In contrast to everything forementioned are counterforces which must not be underestimated:
From the webcast:
A sevenfold expansion of income over Q2 in comparison to 2006.
Filing Atryn for HD in the US next year.
Reimbursements from Leo (Atryn and DIC), MM, PharmAthene, LFB.
Ceazing property rights for Pharmaceuticals and Biotechs and the need for affordable generic biotech drugs (Mabthera etc)will, in combination with GTC's production infrastructure lead to new liasons. Not if but who.
The ongoing Waxman debate concerning FOB
The idea of simultane filling for Atryn AD (FDA, EMEA)
Japan and Atryn
&&
Balancing these two is up to you, but i try the the second option.
Voodoo in my basement
you know what it means
If only we could get press releases like this for gtcb
No No this is good,
Imo it's a matter of reciprocity, and it adds to the rumor around the block reg. Pharming and GTCB.
V.
From a conceptual world, which differs from the real one, seen the share price, and with all respect to future, to hedgies, to take overs or what else;
if GTC starts to cash, on Leo sales, I'm wondering if the u turn will be sudden and bouncing or nice and slowly.
Or:
can we expect neglection of revenues of .(point)20$/S in favor of research costs, fees, cash burn etc. etc.?
Is the image of GTC in the real world made of clay?
Shape it in the form that fits your purpose.
All I can find is that Marathon Asset Management is sometimes adressed to as a direct hedge fund.
http://tinyurl.com/35su6w
(Under may meetings)
Whether this is substantial or is only referring to alternative energy.... ??
Later
Voodoo in my basemen, tea please
Happy new year everybody (here in Holland 3 more houres to go)
We're consuming the pink Champagne which was initially purchased for the spike after approval.
(Got to get me a few new bottles)
Dew, I'm toasting to you and all other GTC longs
V.
>One question is whether everyone in the trial has sepsis or only some of the patients do.<
The latter, I remember now that the initial reason for hospitalisation was Pneumonia. And it was on this indication that the proposal for participating in the trail was made. Sepsis occured later.
Since we didn't agree with the trail seen the negative results published on the web heavy antibiotics were administered.
All links with negative results concerning Tifacogin are removed, or inaccessible now.
So the slides on the Novartis webcast probably tell the truth.
Regards
V.
Oddly, the Tifacogin program appears to have been expedited. NVS’ webcast slides today show it as a planned NDA submission in 2008, a year earlier than NVS’ prior presentation materials. I will attempt to get clarification.
Spring this year, as Tifacogine still was part of the Chiron pipeline, it was proposed in a trail here in
Holland. Ins and outs are painfull for me, but the case was evidently sepsis. It has to be administered with Heparin to control trombosis.
V.
<<I’m not sure I understand what you are driving at.>>
From my mediocre knowledge of GTC's pipeline I intend to analyse what kind of a partner GTC was in need for. Your reply was to the point as it confirms that there is in the short term no need to associate with a partner.
<<There is no need for a U.S. partner for FVIIa during the next few years. GTC and LFB have ample resources to pursue preclinical development of the compound.>>
The diagram you have posted a while ago on Factor VIIa showed an augmeting green field for Trauma/burns from 2007 on (hope I don't mess up Atryn and FVIIa). Is preclinical research covered by the LFB deal?
V.
<<I think they have been reliable as far as their word has gone. Let's hope they remain this way. I have a gut feeling that another major partnership is around the corner.>>
Agree, but these two ( e.g. communicating the strategie for marketing Atryn in Europe and not communicating a possible partnership "around the corner") are more or less in contradiction to each other.
What kind of a partner is GTC in need for? (Factor VIIa in the US ?)
Forgot it, but did LFB came out of blue?
Greetings
V.
My guess:
<<In a conference call in August, Dr Cox told analysts that the EMEA had so far raised no concerns about the transgenic nature of his firm's product. [See #msg-3737145 for more color on GTCB’s conference call.]>>
By date: august 4 2004. (small spike)
Rereading old messages it's striking how strong GTC's management projected (and followed) path- and timelines.
E.g. concerning a distribution partner in Europe, DIC and sepsis.
V.