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I agree with you.
It is frustrating there was $2m as a 3rd party loan while toxic notes were used. It looks like they gave priority to the new production plant and were hoping to get the bank loan sooner to accelerate receivables. That arrangement took 6 months to organize while the notes matured and created this situation. I am looking forward on this point since it is too late for anything else!
Lets see if a PR informs on how the current assets and revenues will be deployed. Hopefully, the 10Q for the second quarter will show that $7.5m USD first order reported next month.
we already had status of convertible debt on march 23rd from Def14c. I did not check the difference for that week since too much has occurred since then. I think the dilution since then may have since paid off just over $1million for 4 convertible notes.
You can see the volume the last few days is much lower which so far means near the end of month saw the end of dilution in time for the filing preparation. We need to see the status for June 30th and an update on cash settlement they put out in a PR on April 8th. We also need to see the OS update later today since I see it still shows for June 29th.
Likely due to EDGAR Technical Difficulties
The OTC disclosure for June 30th indicates KWBT filed the latest quarterly on time. Hopefully the EDGAR technical issue is resolved for our ticker soon. I just emailed IR to ensure they escalate this matter for KWBT.
https://www.sec.gov/filergroup/announcements
This update by CEO is OTC Disclosure & News only.
It confirms that the company filed with the SEC for the most recent quarter. It also confirms we are good to remain on OTCQB despite the current low stock price. We are still waiting for the notes status update with a 10Q or PR. SEC website shows nothing new.
https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?CIK=kwbt&owner=exclude&action=getcompany&Find=Search
CEO confirms OTCQB Certification on June 30th
We have some activity but we are still waiting on 10Q from Edgar system and a follow-up PR.
Section 2: company is current in its reporting and has posted to SEC Edgar System.
Section 8: Exhibit A is status of debt at end of March
https://backend.otcmarkets.com/otcapi/company/financial-report/251138/content
Unusually OS count also did not update yesterday.
With dilution since March 23rd, I hope KWBT paid off $1076122 for 4 notes
565250
222872
153000
135000
https://www.otcmarkets.com/filing/html?id=14058100&guid=4SgFUpnke4u3Cth
Presumably the company had time to update the 10Q for note payoff on Friday. Volume is falling significantly yesterday and today compared to previously.
KWBT receives $2million proceeds from 3rd party loan maturing today. This alone covers the $750k needed for Labrys and TFK 2020 notes.
10Q for first quarter results is late.
TLSS had their late 10Q on ihub by 06.41, over 4 hours ago, while OTC still shows "Delinquent SEC Reporting".
In over ten years, I do not recall seeing this delinquent filing status for KWBT, so I am not concerned it is their fault.
10Q should be automatically updated on this website and hopefully today. The report should contain the latest on the convertible debt payoff.
Direct link to SEC filing is here:
https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?CIK=kwbt&owner=exclude&action=getcompany&Find=Search
It is good to see but I will wait until tomorrow to confirm it lasts.
It is hard to believe the large volume yesterday had no dilution in it but of course the lower OS, the better. The company can always step up too and buy it to reduce OS.
Trading today is still unusual and perhaps there is some shuffling of blocks of shares between market makers as an overhang from the large volume yesterday.
It would be good to see the Q1 tomorrow.
and then we see this bid/ask
0.0083 / 0.0085 (4935100 x 9520083)
Real-Time Best Bid & Ask: 11:29am 06/25/2020
this trading is very unusual in terms of volume leading up to the expected Q1. I think that is the biggest bid/ask I have seen.
I expect 25 or 26 million dilution, which might close off GRR/Morningview notes.
Volume starting off about 5 times lower than previous days.
I am looking for the first quarter 10Q by Monday since no extension has been filed yet.
Not sure since there is a chance Labrys was already paid off.
I would expect that Labrys was paid off by last Friday with a final 40k allocated to them. We saw an apparent change of market maker activity and ALPS/PAUL appear less active now. I am starting to think the additional dilution since Friday might be to pay off USD (Fri 35, Mon 65, Tue 84, Wed 104)k against GRR and Morningview notes, both of which were started together in Oct 2019 and had balances on Dec. 31st 2019. If these two were completed yesterday with about an additional 25 million dilution, we should see a big change in trading today since the management PR to pay off new notes in cash (375k each) should certainly apply to the two Labrys/TFK notes taken out in February.
If we are at about 451m OS, then the stock should go near 0.22 with confirmation of notes paid off.
Either way, we should find out on or before Monday with the Q1
China opinion piece on agriculture (Bloomberg)
"It matters, though, that popular concern over issues, including tainted soil and dirty water, plus official awareness of the cost of ignoring them, means that a new domestic push has a chance of being far less destructive than before. Food safety worries have only heightened of late. Physical constraints like water scarcity will play a role in limiting those aspirations and shape more sustainable policy."
https://www.straitstimes.com/opinion/post-covid-19-china-faces-rice-bowl-dilemma
I think you are suggesting conversions related to some form of payoff for the promissory note.
The Def14c confirmed the 6% note with FirstTrust was paid off
https://www.otcmarkets.com/filing/html?id=14058100&guid=So4FU61MkzSmLth
and the payoff of the 6% convertible note with FirstTrust was discussed here:
In January and February of 2020, the Company issued a total of 13,773,125 common shares to FirsTrust Group, Inc. for the conversion of convertible note. According to the convertible note agreement, the conversion price is based on a 40% discount to the average of the lowest three days trading price of the Company’s common stock on the OTC Bulletin Board over a 20-day trading period per the convertible notes agreement. As the carrying value of the notes and the intrinsic value of that conversion feature equaled to the fair value of the 13,773,125 common shares at $0.01 per share, no gain or loss were recognized upon this conversion."
https://www.otcmarkets.com/filing/html?id=14186191&guid=So4FU61MkzSmLth
Company has been accelerating receivables over recent months with new bank loan, is booking a 7.5million first order by June 30th and is due to receive over 2m from a 3rd party loan on June 30th. There are other large current assets also. From this, company has funds to pay off expensive debt such as FirstTrust and the 2020 notes.
data collected by new poster negos are most likely the best on this board.
using this data, calculations and latest dilutions suggest the two 2019 notes have been paid off.
it would not be surprising to see the stock rise ahead of Q1.
they could do so but have they?
8k said 45 days since may 15th. we are on day 40.
Regarding the upcoming Q1 results, this stock is not valued on revenues. if it were, we would be at 0.25.
if OS increased from here to 500m, we should be near 0.2.
CEO confirmed sales in Q1 at about 80% of standard levels, not a bad performance at all and certainly not a disaster. People need to eat and fertilizers form an essential service.
It is unclear which notes you think are being paid off given the dilution that has taken place already. I am patient to wait for the Q1 to get more clarification.
We had 50m shares absorbed yesterday. Admittedly, some of that could be dilution. Activity has picked up in anticipation of something and as you acknowledge, Q1 is due to report soon right?
Essential Fertilizers Ride The Coronavirus Storm
"The biggest impact for China was on phosphoric acid which is used to produce phosphate. Fertilizer facilities in Hubei province account for up to a third of the country’s total capacity. Because of this, China turned from the largest exporter of diammonium phosphate (DAP) to a net importer.
But as China started to ease its way out of lockdown, the flow of all fertilizers has recovered very quickly and life is getting back to normal again."
"As the pandemic spread across nations, many countries started to feel the full impact of the deadly virus at a time when fertilizer application was at a seasonal high, particularly for the northern hemisphere.
Indeed, during March, demand for all fertilizers was healthy and the value of feedstocks and nutrients held steady and in some instances firmed.
There was pressure on pricing in April-May but the fertilizer sector most certainly did not experience the sharp and dramatic price falls seen in related markets such as gas, oil and petrochemicals.
In June, sentiment has turned and most fertilizer prices have increased."
https://www.agprofessional.com/article/essential-fertilizers-ride-coronavirus-storm
10Q for Q1 should be released soon e.g. Monday
"For the same reasons, the Company will be unable to timely file its Form 10-Q Quarterly Report for the period ended March 31, 2020 which is due on May 15, 2020. The Company expects that it will be able to file each of its Annual Report and Quarterly report within 45 days of the due date of each respective report."
https://www.otcmarkets.com/filing/html?id=14110886&guid=ol4FUeZf97cS-Zh
Hopefully, the report will reveal how close the stock is to eliminating convertible debt to stop this dilution and allow the stock to move to fair value based on growing revenues.
Hopefully the apparent automated trading on higher volume is anticipating or preparing for a good move in the near future. PAUL/ALPS again are not involved today. Lets see what the high volume yesterday does to OS when confirmed later today. It seems like trading has changed but hard to say what is going on. It is not in any rush currently while we are waiting for news to appear soon. I hope we get back near 0.02 by Friday, confirming the double bottom seen better on a 2 year chart. 200 day MA is now 0.087. The revenues and improved cash flow need to impact this stock soon and put it on a growth trajectory.
Based on the April 8th PR, a follow up in the next Q1 report on the 2020 convertible notes hopefully confirms they have been eliminated using cash payment.
Mr. Man Yun, CFO of Kiwa Bio-Tech commented, “It is the first time that we have utilized bank lending facilities in nearly 20 years. This credit facility will enhance our cash flow and enable us to accelerate production and sales. At present, we have several convertible notes in the United States of America which mature in the current fiscal year and we have started negotiations with these convertible notes holders regarding repayment. We are striving to reach agreement with these creditors and repay these convertible notes in cash by the end of April 2020.”
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/04/08/2013408/0/en/Kiwa-Bio-Tech-Announces-100-Million-RMB-Loan-Program-To-Boost-Agriculture-Production-in-China.html
It should also be possible to see the extent of dilution used to offset the 2019 notes.
Based on the 10K, there is a current asset of a 3rd party loan of over $2million available to Kiwa Biotech in one week.
Ideally, CEO & CFO discuss all this in a press release by next week.
I thought 10Q deadline is next Monday on June 29th.
We know revenues will be at about 80% of the normal sales due to COVID19 but all eyes will be on the convertible debt. There should be a section in the 10Q on the latest convertible debt, if any.
Once this is cleared up, the business opportunities ahead can come into the investment thesis.
Restoring China's Environment: June 20th on CGTN
Good start to the week.
6.5M shares within first hour tells the story that this is heading back up. Bids will need to be raised to keep accumulating shares. I don't suppose many retail would want to sell now one week out to clarification on financials with Q1 report.
I agree we can expect a final increase in OS (hopefully between 380k and 390k) today, enough to end the dilution from last 2019 note. Valuation based on price to sales is still 10x from here.
Just need a follow up PR on the notes. We might see that before the Q1 if notes have already been paid off, as I think they might be now.
Just to add, using your numbers to offset the 2019 notes balances (per Def14c on march 23rd) but excluding the small dilution on 15th June for employee restricted share dilution:
Labrys TFK
72579 17885
39138 23250
76726 45570
70821 42315
87313 63710
179221 33087
525798 225817
With the split above by date, TFK 2019 note was closed off in April and then the OS remained constant for about 6 weeks. I would say this shows company effort to end this in April, as per the PR. It is possible Labrys started closing off its 2019 note on June 1st (with negotiations with this lender failing) and Friday may have added $40000 to end the Labrys note.
The company may have known we were near the end and got some restricted shares on 15th June. Then we see T-trades in the same week.
I hope this ends soon.
Thanks for the analysis, which confirms the notes may be almost put in the dustbin of history. Friday may have finished off this but it looks fair to say we should be very close.
There is one week remaining before Q1 financial report might clarify matters with the notes and the dilution holding the stock down. Nobody will care much about the operating performance during COVID19 (we can expect 80% sales level).
I hope we then get a follow up with shareholders on the April 8th PR regarding cash settlement of the new (2020) notes.
Big buying in T-trades gives us confidence in both the financial strength of KWBT going forward and perhaps anticipation of the end of dilution.
The stock has taken a hammering over the past 6 months. I am hoping for a short and sharp recovery of KWBT in the coming week and then a jump towards the long term moving average.
Agreement with Huaxialitai Co., Ltd will be on the books within 12 days.
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/03/30/2008164/0/en/Kiwa-Bio-Tech-Announces-Agreement-with-China-State-Owned-Enterprises-to-Develop-New-Fertilizer-Market-Areas-Including-An-Initial-Order-of-at-Least-Seven-Million-Five-Hundred-Thousa.html
The revenues with the customers are audited. If still unsure, did you try contact the auditor? Friedman LLP: https://www.friedmanllp.com/
Your statement that management intend to allow new convertible notes cause dilution is counter to their April 8th PR regarding the negotiations to pay them in cash.
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/04/08/2013408/0/en/Kiwa-Bio-Tech-Announces-100-Million-RMB-Loan-Program-To-Boost-Agriculture-Production-in-China.html
There are a few interesting current assets on the books:
"On October 10, 2019, the Company loan approximately RMB 14.3 million (approximately US$ 2.0 million) to Yangling Sankang Agriculture Development Ltd. The repayment date is June 30, 2020, the monthly interest rate is 1% after January 1, 2020. "
China considers new law on promoting rural vitalization
"China's top legislature on Thursday began reviewing a draft law on promoting rural vitalization, a move to speed up the development of the agriculture and rural areas and ensure the country's farmers to live a better life."
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-06/18/c_139149146.htm
The Standing Committee of the 13th National People's Congress (NPC), China's top legislature, will convene its 19th session from June 18 to 20 in Beijing.
"The draft law on promoting rural vitalization stipulates measures for the enhancement of agriculture"
http://www.china.org.cn/china/2020-06/17/content_76173803.htm
China strengthens financial support to enterprises
http://www.china.org.cn/business/2020-06/18/content_76176486.htm
China Signals Further Reserve Ratio Cut to Spur Bank Lending
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/china-signals-further-ratio-cut-004756671.html
China's Cabinet: Will step up monetary policy to support real economy
https://www.fxstreet.com/news/chinas-cabinet-will-step-up-monetary-policy-to-support-real-economy-202006171135
best chance is something from CASI first in China
This article suggests $5.4m for Marqibo and Zevalin in 2020. Hard to know what part of that is Marqibo.
"We are reducing our 2020 revenue estimate from $20.8 million to $12.5 million to account for the move away from the ANDA portfolio. We forecast $7.1m in Evomela sales for 2020 and total sales of $12.5 million assuming approval and commercialization for Marqibo and Zevalin."
https://scr.zacks.com/News/Press-Releases/Press-Release-Details/2020/CASI-A-Change-in-Strategy-article/default.aspx
That figure of 350m was put out by another but the point about audited revenues and deep undervaluation is still valid.
The upcoming financial statements should help reevaluate to amount of Labrys note remaining (formerly $565k on March 23rd).
Your figure of 500million OS gives a valuation based on revenue of about 0.2. So we are in a stage of between 0.2 and 0.27, lets say, in terms of valuation.
This is tiring to watch. I think the company can sort this out soon with cash flow improving.
Previously I saw May 2021 for clinical trials with marqibo. Perhaps COVID19 is delaying this study until December 2022?
https://clinicaltrials.ucsf.edu/trial/NCT02879643
OS is now showing as 355,966,370.
The increase of 8million is less than the mentioned 12.5 million T-trade. Not sure what that means but not all of it, if any, can be dilution.
So we have now had about 73million diluted since May 29th. I think about 30% of the volume has been dilution.
Market cap = $3,440,742
Expected 2020 Revenue = $48 million
June 29th
Hopefully 10Q for first quarter gives information on Labrys note
June 30th
$2.05m note due to be received. I hope they immediately close off the convertibles with current year maturity
Apart from the mandatory financials, I think this might be first company activity visible since the april 8th PR regarding negotiations on the notes.
Correct me if I am wrong.
I do not think they would give employees shares if they thought the shares were worthless !
yes, any change and company activity is a good sign!
It certainly looks to be turning with high volume for today
Some good bids sitting on L2 currently.
I hope it stabilizes near 0.015 today to start us off well for the week ahead.
Thanks. Interesting.
We had over 17m shares traded yesterday.
Just needs an 8k and PR to make it happen.
with ALPS/PAUL gone, we may be near the end of dilution? Two weeks also to the 10Q. There is a good risk/reward now with KWBT if one remembers the April 8th PR and we have not seen an announcement of a change in plan since then.
"Mr. Man Yun, CFO of Kiwa Bio-Tech commented, “It is the first time that we have utilized bank lending facilities in nearly 20 years. This credit facility will enhance our cash flow and enable us to accelerate production and sales. At present, we have several convertible notes in the United States of America which mature in the current fiscal year and we have started negotiations with these convertible notes holders regarding repayment. We are striving to reach agreement with these creditors and repay these convertible notes in cash by the end of April 2020.”"
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/04/08/2013408/0/en/Kiwa-Bio-Tech-Announces-100-Million-RMB-Loan-Program-To-Boost-Agriculture-Production-in-China.html
China to see bumper summer harvest, wheat yields and quality up
"BEIJING, June 15 (Xinhua) -- China will see a bumper harvest of grains this summer thanks to stable grain acreage and improved crop yields, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said Monday."
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-06/15/c_139140956.htm
3,235,000 trade at 9.41am was a big trade right near the start of trading.
I wonder if that was retail.
Neither PAUL or ALPS are doing anything today so far.
This might step up again to 0.014 gradually, as we did on Friday.
China's industrial output up 4.4 pct in May amid further recovery
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-06/15/c_139139867.htm
I agree that the company looks in much better shape now than ever before and positioned well for new and growing markets.
Despite this, the stock price is heavily discounted on account of the recent conversions (near 250m OS added) while waiting on a PR for cash payment of notes with maturity dates in the current fiscal year.
2020 expected revenue is $48m (20% increase over 2019).
2021 could indeed see a larger increment towards $65m with the new plant