Anyone on this board has any info on what was Dr Stubb's role with NWBO? Was he consulting on the selection of the external control arm data? Also, when was the external control arm data finalized? 18 months ago before unbinding or after? i.e. does the SAP summitted prior to unbinding already had the external control arm data?

Is the day over yet? Still waiting.

I still don't understand your take on spreads. To me a spread is neutral. It has a short contract in one month and a long contract in a different month.

Tomorrow morning is May WTI contract expiry. Trading volume on May contract is very thin on the last few days of expiry. Algos can spike up the May contracts very easily with buying few contracts and then short larger volume of June contracts for a good profit. In a few days, they will bring down the June contract to cover their shorts. Rinse and repeat the next month.

Not sure how you got the +29,455 for OR

I think it will be a draw this time as well but a smaller one. Transcanada pipeline outage will balance out the increased exports.

I think EIA will report a draw as well but slightly lower draw. Transcanada pipeline shut off due to leak. Brings 500,000 barrels/day. Imports from Canada will be down in this report as well as the next. This is not really a draw. Oil being stored in Canada instead of in US.

$37 WTI holding, being supported by the raising USD.

Okay. we just have to wait for the import numbers tomorrow

Yes when it suites your view. Is it a net draw? How much crude is needed to create a build of 2.7 million in distil.?

Trans Canada pipeline outage. Carries 500,000 barrels per day. So the draw is likely due to drop in imports. I am hearing that the pipeline is still out so likely another draw next week. Does not mean there is less inventory. It means that the build is now being stored in Canada instead of in the US.

Looks like WTI may break $35. Approaching oversold territory but it went way too high way too fast. Waiting to go long UWTI at $15.

Anybody know what the Genscape reported for Cushing inventory change? Thanks.

Iran oil minister rejects Saudi call to curb production

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/iran-oil-minister-rejects-saudi-call-to-curb-production-2016-04-03

Here is the $WTIC chart. Looks red to me unless I am color blind.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24WTIC&p=D&b=5&g=0&i=0&r=1459475935534

If EIA monthly actual numbers tomorrow is bullish, WTI will likely pop back to $39. I don't see it breaking $40 though. Short squeeze is over.

Why the sell off after the report? I did not think the report was bearish. Looked neutral to slightly bullish to me. Looks like this short squeeze is over and MM are now fading the spike. If WTI paints a red candle today after decent API and EIA reports, that would be a very good confirmation that the squeeze is over and time to switch bets to the other side. IMHO.

Thanks.

Could someone in the know post the Genscape number reported today for cushing? Thanks

I think EIA will report a sizeable build around 3 million barrels. Last week, imports were lower due to fog and should catch up in this week. However, 3 million build is not bearish enough to trigger a sell off and the short covering Seems to be tapering off based on today's action. I am expecting sideways action for the next three weeks into the Apr 17th meeting.

Any thoughts on the Greenscape Cushing inventory report? Inventory draw of 500k at Cushing. But the market did not react by much. Is Greenscape usually close to EIA report on Cushing inventory?

Not sure anyone posted this. I have been away from this board for a while. There is an update on Kat's facebook page regarding her wait for DE-Vax. Update was on March 17th.

$41.14 tested on the May contract and failed. Down we go. If $40 is broken then we can go all the way to $34 by end of this week.

Last 3 day's action feels a lot like Feb 1st to 3rd. Big drops Monday and Tuesday followed by large gains on Wednesday erasing the previous two day losses. What happened after? Check out the $WTIC chart.

I did not include spreading since it will me a pair of long and short contracts.

Here is a visual of last 1 year of MM positions in WTI futures

http://cotreport.cmegroup.com/ChartImages/BANTIXWFENLB01/COTDET_000021.png?bba2cefd-5675-45e2-abe8-1ed4499f822a

What makes you think short covering is not done yet?

We will see sub $30 before April contract expires, could be even by this Friday.

I read somewhere yesterday (can't find the link) Genscape reported a 640,000 build in Cushing last week which is less than 1 million build the week before. I expect the inventory numbers to come in at around 5 million build for crude.

Also EIA might show a drop in the rate of production decline or even a slight increase in production as some are speculating the last couple of weeks of production drop was weather related.

I never shorted before. What is the current interest rate to short UWTI?

In the short run, CLDX news is going to pull all immunotherapy stocks down with it. Both with immunotherapy focused funds selling off and further doubts of immunotherapy ever succeeding against cancer.

What is everyone's take on the OS of placebo of 21.1 months? Everyone is living longer?

How would this compare to what we can expect of the cross over arm OS?

Here is 10 year COT Swap Dealer positions reported. What is your interpretation of this chart?
Notice the large short position that started to fall at the same time oil started to fall and followed the same path as oil to date. Now their net position is long because the short positions fell below the long positions.I originally thought the number of long positions increased above the number of short positions.

http://www.cmegroup.com/tools-information/quikstrike/commitment-of-traders-agricultural.html

SWAP Dealer position in WTI Futures & options

Trying to make sense of the net long position SWAP Dealers currently hold. It started from a net short -200,000K contracts to now +63,000K contracts, steadily increasing as the oil prices fell

http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?sym=CLJ16&style=technical&template=&p=DN&d=X&sd=&ed=&size=M&log=0&t=BAR&v=0&g=1&evnt=1&late=1&o1=&o2=&o3=&sh=150&indicators=COTDLC%2813369344%2C26112%2C153%2C16750848%29&chartindicator_4_code=COTDLC&chartindicator_4_param_0=13369344&chartindicator_4_param_1=26112&chartindicator_4_param_2=153&chartindicator_4_param_3=16750848&addindicator=&submitted=1&fpage=&txtDate=#jump

Look at the green line in the chart. Can the ETFs & ETNs account for that much long position? Managed Money and Other portable trend lines are relatively stable. Producers are increasing their short position and the banks (swap dealers) are taking the other side of the bet. Any thoughts?

Thanks for the reply. Confirms my understanding.

Most refineries here are not built to process lite sweet crude. So they need to mix with heavier crude so they can process them. Too costly to re- tool the refineries. So we need imported oil to mix.

Second reason is Saudis have their own refineries here in the U.S. to process their crude so crude coming to us to be proceeded in these refineries are imports.

This is how I understand;

You are correct that UWTI is an ETN so it is a liability on Credit Suisse's balance sheet. However, they do own corresponding current month WTI futures contract in the asset side of their balance sheet.

Daily Balancing: In any day a there are more new money coming in (buy) than redemptions (sell), new contracts needs to be bought for the difference. If new money coming in is less than resumptions then contracts need to be sold. This daily re-balancing buying and selling does impact the Futures market but not minute by minute.

Starting on the 5th business day for the next 5 days, Credit Suisse will roll over 20% of the near month contracts they are holding to the next month.

I need to do more research on when and how they do the daily rebalancing. If someone already know, please post.

I had a related question earlier on how these contracts Credit Sussie is holding is reported in theCOT report. I am pretty sure now they are reported under swap dealer. I am currently trying to figure out who/what is behind this net long swap dealer position showing in the COT report. Net long ETN holdings alone is not large enough to explain this. Someone else is behind the long side of the swap position that is being hedged with long futures contracts by the swap dealer.

COT report question

In the disaggregated COT report, where does the ETN positions such as UWTI show up? Are these positions treated as Swap dealer position or managed money position?
Credit Suisse is a swap dealer and also the manager of the velocity shares ETNs. I am guessing all CS positions are accounted as swap dealer position in the COT report but want to confirm

Thanks.