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Stingman,
I don't want to get into any back/forth with you, but in response to your incorrect assumptions I will tell you that I am not "short" nor do I wish to "drive the stock down." Rather, as early as March 2015, to more urgently since the secondary last year, I've been buying every share I can, and have told many others to buy, and am aware of at least 100k long that I own or others own upon my recommendation.
I am also NOT new to this board as you incorrectly assumed. I have posted many times, but do go weeks if not months without posting (please don't hold that against me). A cursory check would have shown you my earlier posts on this board.
In respect of the board, I have finally had time to research what I saw but quickly ignored that led you to your response that began with "I don't know where you come from." With the info in hand, I apologize to you and the board for what has turned out to be my error. For those that care, I had set up Google alerts (earlier this month) for the first time on several stocks I own (and other items of interest) and one of my first, if not my first alert received on CTSO was a "downgrade" that when I received the (first) alert coincided with the first down day since we peakedjust under $15. Because of the uproar, I went back today and found the alert. It was from BidAsk and issued on AUG 6th. Which means it wasn't current and frankly an irrelevant source. I didn't realize (as a new alert receiver) that some of them were days if not weeks old info (when you first sign up).
So I apologize to the board for my error, but do wish I would have been treated a little more respectfully, and hope other longs, true believers like me, aren't so quickly insulted for making a first timers mistake.
Tim
I got an alert that one firm cut them from BUY to HOLD. That was all. I laughed and ignored it.
It mainly seemed to be b/c the stock got to within 5 cents of the firm's $15 short term target. The stock sold off to near $14 minutes after I got the alert, and I laughed some more.
Then I bought more.
Good trading for the longs Friday as work was done in the previously weak $14 - $14.25 range. We caught a couple insider sells (noise - routine), a brokerage downgrade, with both being what you'd expect as the stock approached $15. Not sure how long it will take to blast above $15 but shorts must be getting very nervous after the stock held $14 all Friday afternoon. It's just a matter of time.
Now that CTSO has their new plant online, I'm wondering if we should continue to expect the same product revenue ramp next few quarters of 60-70% year over year and 10-15% sequentially, or can we expect that to bump up next few quarters to closer to 20% sequentially and near 100% year over year? Can the lower ramp get them to operating profitability by Q4 (along with expanding margins)?
I didn't hear any questions on recent conference calls discussing any specifics and the company only offers the general "second half sales will exceed first half" comment. One clue will be when they expand their new $40M plant to make $80M in product (good PR), which would imply they see quarterly revenues soon exceeding $10M. Is that Q2 or Q4 of 2019?
I thought the sales numbers this past report (Q2/2018) just barely eclipsing $5M were a nice touch, and hinted that If they could have made it (in their old plan ($20M annual production)), they could have sold it.
GLTA
I was glad to see the size (today at $14.85), but no idea from where. It moved around through several market makers but never sold. A day of momentum building under $15 to kick off the weekly chart was probably needed. Agree it might really take off once it cracks $15 so I'd like to see the stock break out from here without going crazy (unless major news merits it).
This lift off above $15 may never be retested, especially if we can break out smoothly (no gaps), with institutions (and lots of shorts) buying on the way up thereafter.
Makes sense as there was a big short interest jump around that time. It looked like they tried to follow through the next day and shoved the stock down to almost $10, but the stock reversed on them and hasn't looked back. I watch the stock trade most days and I just don't see how they established such a large short position without a big chunk in that end of day index adjustment where I think about 2.4M shares of CTSO crossed at the close. If not, then they've been shorting every day to get there, PLUS the company has been selling shares into the open market and might have done so again this week. Hard to believe we got to $15 under all that pressure, but I'm not complaining as it shows great relative strength and likely higher prices soon.
The selloff in early August was not surprising. The stock was trading above $14 for a bit after the news, which was a dollar plus gap higher from the close. So it was buy the rumor, sell the news, and also some insiders exercised options, AND the company had just filed a $150M shelf. That is what drove the stock down, but only for a few weeks. It was smart of the company to file the shelf then and allow the stock to cool off, and I would not be surprised if they were asked to do so by a few market makers.
The reversals off exhaustion gap selloffs (coincident with great news, especially earnings related) can be powerful -- and we've seen exactly that.
I remember all the boo birds with that selloff. They were the ones selling in small lots as if they were waiting on the news of a big revenue ramp to sell the stock. The LAST thing we needed was a dollar gap in price that would have had to fill at some point. We got exactly what we needed for the long term.
Let's focus in on what news are they going to release on Tuesday ahead of two big conference this week, including presentations and investor meetings. Anyone?
I almost can't believe the language. Exactly what we've been waiting to see from respected outlets. Frankly, I've waited so long as a long that I was starting to doubt myself late last year. But this thing is really going to happen. And it seems to be getting better by the day.
It's been a long ride longs but feeling good tonight as the story unfolds. With near term operating profitability (minus charges) a certainty we are seeing the due rewards. This CAR T angle seems to be playing well with large traders.
My main concern now turns to how big this is gonna get quickly. One would assume something is on the horizon re: partners, cap investment, additional mgmt. Also, HemoDefend is sounding pretty huge and I wasn't counting on having that (or a 2.5M short position) when buying more than a year ago.
I presume revenues are going to (or now can) ramp in many other countries now with new plant? Hello Italy! Are they really going to state (at some point) that they are "expanding" for $80M from $40M product sales (current capacity)? In any case my math has next two quarters being pretty big blowout numbers with the long awaited headline.
GLTA
The volume is exactly right. Technical chat reading has its flaws in prediction, just like hoping the fundamentals of a company will be and remain good while you are invested in it.
But make no mistake - the volume and the chart patterns since the mid June lows are nothing short of perfection. This stock is no longer being driven by fluff pieces. Large, deep pockets have stepped up and the action today breaking through $6.3 was particularly noteworthy, and sets the stock up to dash to $8 in a matter of days, if not certainly weeks.
My take is the fundamentals are good or even great, and once cash flow positive is within sites, the stock will pop to $12-$15 easy. I think we could see such a surge before/with the next Q report if they show product revenues over $4M and total revenues near/above $4.5M. We just need an acceleration of the product sales trend. If revenues are ramping in Germany like they indicate we should be getting to $5M/quarter within 2-3 quarters - so all eyes now on the early NOV Q3 report.
That said, I think the big money has stepped up b/c of our link to Baxter and their CRRT work. Up/down volume the last two months has been impressive. Following the latest fund raise, we won't need to sell shares below $8 ever again with cash flow positive Q reports on the horizon.
I didn't sell any 7.5 puts short recently, but I'd be sweating it out, after today's action, if I had.
-T
The stock is trading with technical perfection - filling all gaps/weaknesses on the chart -- and impressively so the last 10 days in the absence of any "news." That is the reason why folks likely got in on the days you focus. But some of us bought way before during the $3.5 and below dip after the last offering. The Baxter link now seems confirmed by the trading, with big buyers gobbling or nibbling during short term bases since we bottomed out in mid June.
So that would be my answer, and no -- it's not stopping anytime soon. Long here - bigly - and seeing the train leaving the station is a pretty thing to behold.
I'd like to see a partnership with Baxter or something similar. We need a big name partner. And the start of Phase II trials.
Things are heating up, but you'd never know it from this board.
The dip recently to once again below $4 was painful for the longs, but fortunately some of us bought even more. The funding round was coming and some insiders knew more $3.25s would be issued. I certainly hope that is the last time we'll see $3.25s - with just the $5.50 warrants above them.
The stock is impossible to trade a decent large block. Nibbling, even slightly, takes the sellers off the ask. It's been like that since it got back up above $4. Before the dip, you could hit the ask and eventually they'd lower it - getting it down so the $3.25 new warrants didn't look too much like a big give away.
The last two days have been telling. Eight weeks to get through $6 last time -- this week it took about 4k shares to breach the level. And lastly we saw a 40cent uptick in the last minute today on about 12k. The A/D line is pretty impressive.
My big question is how quickly can OCX generate meaningful revenues from international distribution and partnerships while they pursue US reimbursements? It's nice that hardly anyone follow this board b/c it means I'm ahead of the party. But can any one of the five of you reading this board talk about my question above?
I am counting on OCX having at least one announcement lined up with an international partner to be signed and released following the completion of the two outstanding validation trials. So how quickly will partnerships come once they are clear to make and sell?
With that said - I look forward to the day when we have 1000 messages on this board. Then we'll know the word is out. I am stunned by how so few folks are following or even aware of this nifty unique investment opportunity.
Good luck to all longs. We've got a phenomenal management team working for us and I for one am getting excited about how well they are delivering.
Tim
I think the "too many balls in the air" argument is valid. Those that have been in for years have cause for complaint, but finally it is coming together. With high margins and low cash flow requirements, we are 12 months or so away from them burning nearly any cash so no more cheap secondary offerings. While taking awhile to mature, the management have been very careful about share count which is impressive. I do wish they would have bought more shares during the last few months as we dipped to as low as $3.30.
So within 12 months or so, everything is in place for the next three to five legs to come into clearer view. The market will pay up as revenues grow sufficiently to pay for most of the R&D and trials, as we see each big new addressed market slowly begin to generate revenues.
That said, I'm expecting the company to show us the advertised meaningful revenue ramp up no later than with their NOV Q3 report. Germany sales should be surging based on past guidance, so would expect Q3 product sales to be at least 10% over Q2, and hopefully a good bit more.
Tim
Andy - I am long CTSO. Was invested in late 2014 through early 2015 when they stumbled with their revenue ramp. I sold and took an average loss on my holdings. Then decided to watch the corporate developments and buy after their next offering (which due to the Bridge Bank loan took longer than I expected).
But finally in late March of this year they did the secondary, and I started buying again. My last add was on June 27th at which point I owned 34x the number of shares I owned in early 2015. GO CTSO!
I see major alignment here from a number of unmet billion dollar medical areas, and the sepsis link is very exciting. All we need is a little more revenue to get full lift off and this week was a good start.
Tim
ESICM 2017
Postgraduate Course, L2
23.09.2017, 09:00 – 10:40
State of the art in sepsis management: Sepsis recognition
Chairs
Chair: Jan De Waele, Ghent, Belgium
Sepsis, the clinical syndrome
Speaker: Yasser Sakr, Jena, Germany
09:00
Key issues in microbiological diagnostics
Speaker: Michael Bauer, Jena, Germany
09:20
Immune-monitoring
Speaker: Massimo Girardis, Modena, Italy
09:40
Update on sepsis biomarkers
Speaker: Pedro Povoa, Lisbon, Portugal
10:00
Discussion
10:20
ESICM 2017
Postgraduate Course, L1
23.09.2017, 14:00 – 16:00
State of the art in sepsis management: How to assess (Workshops)
Chairs
Chair: Yasser Sakr, Jena, Germany
The septic patient; Case-based discussions
Speaker: Jan De Waele, Ghent, Belgium
14:00
Volume status
Speaker: Jean-Louis Teboul, Kremlin-Bicetre, France
14:30
Cardiac function
Speaker: Daniel De Backer, Braine L'Alleud, Belgium
15:00
Microcirculation and peripheral perfusion
Speaker: Zsolt Molnar, Szeged, Hungary
I guess it's pointless to ask the board if anyone saw the poster on Friday at SABCS?
I think we saw some warrants exercised and so there was some selling of them on the way up and then on the way back down. This is common after the kind of insider fund raising that they did in late August. I took the opportunity to double my holdings at prices around $4 in the last couple weeks.
Sounds to me from the conference call after the close last night that the abstract for the big breast cancer readout is gonna be available some time Monday. They said in the call that the data was "very strong."
There were just barely any shares hitting the bids today and so it ticked up 10%. I'm so impressed with this leadership team and what they are doing. It sounds like the science is also working out, so if they get good data for breast to go with lung and bladder (cancer biopsies) can we say there could be some excitement?
We shall see. Enjoy the weekend longs!
Tim
I'll take today's 22% gain any day. This time let's hope the stock holds. Chart is right for a major move and the company could have a couple nice pieces of news in the coming weeks.
Another 10% today on even higher volume than yesterdays. Still no news to be found anywhere. Looks like the warrants are just being exercised as shares are listed/sold on the orderly way UP. Keep it coming!
Tim
There seems to be something good under the hood. Today's 13% move up came as big buyers had no choice but to push it higher to find shares. Two days ago the daily volume was 1.6K. Today was saw 1190K cross the tape. So Wednesday's volume was 75 times Monday's. No news to be found.
Today's volume was the second highest daily UP volume since the company's IPO/spin off from Biotime (BTX) in late 2015. On 4/4/16 OCX traded 218K on this headline (ONCOCYTE AND THE WISTAR INSTITUTE ANNOUNCE POSITIVE RESULTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BLOOD-BASED LUNG CANCER TEST)
We now know the science works and they are simply validating excellent standard of care worthy results (for lung cancer liquid biopsy test) due JAN 17. In DEC 16 we get early data for breast - same platform. They are already working a larger breast trial (hint -- good enough early data for them to continue for breast as the total platform looks strong).
Follow the money? The volume says buy, but no one seems to be here yet. Will they ever come?
The float is thin. BTX will likely sell some of their 14M shares and insiders have loaded up in late August on shares and reasonably priced options at $3.25. This should help the stock consolidate briefly after each leg up as we near late/early year data.
This is certainly a speculative play but results being validated were undeniably strong. So I've been wondering how the stock would trade in the silence as we near more data. I am presuming insiders are very confident as they could not dump shares easily if they suddenly had to, given the small float.
So given all that a 13% high volume pop today with no apparent news seems like a strong indicator -- and a buy signal, at least short term.
Tim
I'd rather us open flat and then surge. Gaps are rally killers - if not for entire runs, certainly for days.
A close look at the tape shows a stock under MASSIVE accumulation. The last 12 trading days have been quite telling. We've got a winner, but it will take time to play out. Even still, the buying is really impressive. I look forward to seeing how the volume swings once we break $4.75.
Tim
At Aegis Growth Conference today it sounded like there was one guy in the audience but you got an earful if you listened to the company presentation (on their website soon I'm sure) and all the questions.
CEO said the data from their breast biopsy tests were obviously "exciting enough" to have them quickly start up a larger clinical trial. This data is embargoed now but will be announced in early December. Sounds like company has a big one-two punch with big data events in both DEC and JAN next. Then first product launch is on schedule for Q2 2017 which will begin to generate revenues.
Tim
Big breakout today - up nearly 10% at the close. Volume was impressive.
Earlier this month the company announced this:
ONCOCYTE TO PRESENT INITIAL DATA ON ITS BREAST CANCER DIAGNOSTIC TEST AT THE PRESTIGIOUS SAN ANTONIO BREAST CANCER SYMPOSIUM
http://investors.oncocyte.com/news-releases/2016/09-08-2016-110057092
The event is DEC 9th. The release was a full 90 days before the presentation. That and the use of the word 'prestigious" seems like a big signal the company has great things to say, and with the validation of their successful data from the lung cancer study coming in JAN 17, the next few months could get very exciting. The market potential for their products seems substantial to me. I wonder if the Aegis investors that will hear them tomorrow (late) will think the same thing?
http://investors.oncocyte.com/news-releases/2016/09-20-2016-113014061
Importantly, where most bios are a total crap shoot - and nearly all fail at some point, this one seems to have success already in the bag -- at least on their lung cancer biopsy offering.
The float is so small, and most shares are tightly held, so like today -- any sign of aggressive buying pushes it up nicely. insiders have been big buyers lately and they are already handsomely rewarded.
Tim
Now that we know their tech works -- at least for this first tested indication -- even with slightly less robust numbers in longer read outs, they still will go to market (easily and perhaps quickly) as THE new standard of care -- since current treatment is to send them home for total home care. Early 2a trail results see these patients becoming able to take care of themselves. It's night and day.
Sure it is early -- but we have so much more than we expected --- perhaps even at much later points in the current 2a trial. Based on the conference call, I would think they should see as good if not better results with the new cohort (partial spinal fractures, not total). And they can work long term toward giving everyone 20m cells - the newly approved number that they have yet to use. That seems to be the most impressive thing here - better, earlier results and not even using the max dosage yet. Hard not to get excited.
It is early in this trial. But this is a platform drug opportunity where it looks like their first go (trial paid for partially by partner) is going to be a winner. Great management as well so I was buying with them and hoping, and frankly it didn't take long, but some summer days kinda sucked!
Everybody is smiling big today. if you doubt, just look at the recent volume. The move from $3 to $4 came after the video of one of the patients came out where he is now lifting weights -- in 90 days. Talking, eating, writing. This guy signed his trial consent form by holding the pen in his mouth and others moved the paper.
Today's move up and strong close was because of the data. More to come.
Tim
I own BTX, AST, and most recently OCX. I have owned BTX since it was BTIM trading below a buck. I think the latter two and therefore the "mothership" are going to do well over the coming years. As you likely know, all three have done fairly large cash raises in recent weeks, and each seem to be on the verge of rapidly ramping revenues as early as 2017. It has taken quite a while to get here. The data from AST (48% owned by BTX) this week was nothing short of astounding and that is a platform drug opportunity. With OCX, the data seems already conclusive for their lung cancer test, so we just have to await verification and then product ramp. Seems like everybody will want to use this new technology given current invasive and uncertainty issues with current standard of care.
Tim
Nice late day action following a couple days of consolidation. The data we got this week merits a higher market cap for AST before JAN17 next data - and other potential corporate developments are likely along the way. The 71k block at the close was a sign of good things to come next week.
Glad I found this one early. Like the favorable risk/reward chances for 2017 approval of their first (lung cancer test) offering with lots of other potential markets to follow. Recent finance raise and warrants from mainly insiders and others (Bailey is a big plus) means they have plenty of cash to get there without any other cash raises. I think this one is a hidden gem and any good news at all will send the thinly traded stock surging.
Would recommend everyone listen to their after hours conference call today. Analysts on the call sounded really impressed as was I. Company and partner reps on the call could barely tame their enthusiasm
http://asteriasbiotherapeutics.com/asterias-biotherapeutics-announces-positive-efficacy-data-in-patients-with-complete-cervical-spinal-cord-injuries-treated-with-ast-opc1/
http://wsw.com/webcast/cc/astb12/
There is big WOW factor in their data - very early, just 7 patients through 90 days. But they have already met their 12 month study goals in less than 90 days. This with lower dosages than they are now approved to give (20 million cells versus 2 and 10 million in early 7 patient group).
The data should only get better with them now looking into partial spine fracture patients and not just total fractures (first 7 patients). This is a platform drug offering that may address other unmet needs and management has a history of delivering big.
Check out slide 10 on the link below. The UEMS scores at DAY 90 range from (0-50) where a score of 50 represents full upper body motor recovery (I had to listen to the ear popping conference call after hours tonight to get that answer). They are seeing early patients scores surge to around/above 40 (50 is max) in less than 90 days. This is far better and far earlier than even their previous hopeful high expectations based on early trial data (mainly in animals). It works!!!
http://asteriasbiotherapeutics.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/Wirth-ISCoS-14SEP2016-talk-FINAL.pdf
Can someone explain what is happening? I see it halted, yet it is up 8% on 250k? I'm sure it has to do with the switch to NASDAQ, but this seems a bit odd (not complaining since it is up).
I am not happy about this last minute title change for the first poster. Many of us were no doubt buying late this week based on the originally advertised and accepted poster titles. With title in hand, the slowly eroding pps Friday seemed more attractive. Sure if the pps is above $10 on great news next week you won't hear me complaining, but I could have done without this.
I'm impressed when you can get 10% on an "average" daily volume (30 day average). I take this to mean that it would take fewer shares in a coordinated attack to drive it back down, but it also signals that you do that at your peril IF the volume suddenly soars back to "HEAVY" on any "big positive" news.
Does anyone have an opinion on the volume trends? I would have expected slightly higher volume the last three days given the resistance levels we broke through, but I'll take it. I look at 4/8 and 4/25 when we gapped up and traded more than 8M and 7M shares respectively so I'm surprised we broke through those levels on barely more than a million shares. In any case, the chart looks very good -- and this is all occurring in silence from the company.
Tim
With the recent run up in the stock, now coupled with the good Doctor's extension and options structure through mid 2019, It is clear to me that he intends for AVXL to remain a unique entity until the pps is $400/share or more. Then he will split the stock 1:4 to give super long longs just as many as we came with - with many (including me) buying most of those shares below a buck.
Then and only then will Dr. M entertain a buyout - at a further increase in share price well above the (split adjusted) $100/share. By this time you won't be able to count the zeros.
Since this is a platform drug targeting small and enormous unmet needs, why would any of us settle for anything less? And I'm betting neither will our CEO.
See you in 2020 or sooner at the split party - let's go some place nice!!
Need some big bids to start showing up like this past Tuesday and it will tick up.
Funny how things are so quiet before 10am, on this board and with the stock (even though it has ticked down a dime this first 30min of trade - like nearly every day the last month).
Thanks to those in the meeting for posting whatever you might hear.
Tim
Today's action really settled my stomach down. I'm over the the big gaps that can't hold on news not in a PR.
But today - up on a down market day - bounced off the 50 day SMA - and no news to account for the gains. Happy Day! And this after yesterday's hit piece that seemed to be part of an orchestrated effort to fill some big buyers just above $5.
I will be real surprised if Friday comes and we get zero PRs the rest of this week, but count me as being wrong before.
Tim
What is with all the big bids moving up the price today? I thought this was a P&D?? Somebody call GeoInvesting - time for a follow up article!
Market is down, XBI is down, and one of the most hated stocks in the universe is up. How can it be?
Big buyers were already set up at $5.10 or thereabouts - so they were ready given news came out right at the open. Perfectly timed for perfect manipulation.
Hearing GeoInvesting out with negative article. They have "helped" us in the past. If history serves, this is the "big" hit in this cycle, filling the gap, and the stock will now right itself and go into rally mode either later today/this week.
I'm a little tired of giving up 20% gains time after time but I guess that is the nature of the beast and an even bigger reason to trade around your core.
Tim
Given slower HyperSound revenue ramp (perhaps better news on May 10th report) I am thinking this stock is dead money for the year. It may pop to near $2 on any one PR, but I would be inclined to sell into any strength. I wish they would spin off HyperSound back into it's own company. From moment one this merger has been a total dog.
Apple buying Beats awhile back took all the hype out of other headset options - and so we languish. And no, I don't like any options going out at these prices -- especially that kind of size. Lost confidence in management along time ago.
Tim
I think we get 1-2 more PRs before the annual meeting, and while the data may come around mid May, the PRs before will be tied to or teasing near term corporate developments -- but you'll have to read between the lines.
Dr. M has been doing a great job of telling us (hinting) where things are going -- as long as you can connect the dots.