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blockman I'd say waiting for GBDX to come in might proove to be a real trial. The setup sounds good, except for the nationality of the principals. I've seen too many movies, for sure, and I just KNOW those Ruskies are subversive rascals who've figured out another way to bring down capitalism.
reeltime I thought the same thing when I looked into this company. The burn rate compared to the cash on hand makes this a real cliffhanger. What will happen to get the company beyond the current financial situation? I am on the sidelines watching developments. Next week's 10K should make interesting reading for those who look at the numbers on the bottom lines.
A comment on Netflix vrs Reeltime: at Netflix, if you know a DVD exists, you can be pretty certain you will find it. Also, the brief summary of a movie obtained by passing the cursor over the title or image is very helpful in determining if renting an unknown movie might be worth while. Of course, these two aren't direct competitors except in the new Netflix fling into web viewing, which I haven't tried yet. Since I will have to watch on a relatively small screen with headphones on, I'm not in a hurry for my first experience.
Internet TV startup Joost raised $45 million in a venture round of financing, the company will announce this evening. Investors include Sequoia Capital, Index Ventures, CBS Corporation, Viacom and Chinese billionaire Li Ka-shing.
The company has not previously disclosed any financings. Joost was started by Skype founders Janus Friis and Niklas Zennström in 2006; presumably seed funding came directly from them.
Viacom and CBS have also signed content deals with Joost, so this looks like it will be their main online TV play. News Corp./NBC Universal formed an online TV joint venture earlier this year, which is still unnamed and has earned the nickname “Clown Co.”
Sequoia was also the venture backer of YouTube, which is indirectly a competitor.
Joost is currently in private beta and is rumored to be launching within days.
MWM I am doing what I said I would, reading the posts, watching the trading action, waiting for news from the company. Pessimism is a point of view, not a character trait. If I have been overly wrong I can still enjoy the show.
All Right. Someone posting like an actual investor. You're here to make money. Shout it from the roof tops.
What a party drooper. And you guys think I'm a wet blanket.
I've been contemplating the post from the weekend that showed the chart giving evidence of support at .08. It is a convincing chart, although the Pinkies have a way of confounding chartists. Still, while I'll be reading the posts here with an open mind, it's the pps chart and volume flow that will tell the story over the next few weeks. If this current downtrend can be stopped at this point with no news and no improvement to the website, and no sight of the Lions Gate content, I'll start believing in this as a good entry point.
tokamak Thanks for the reply. Getting the patent in place would be a major step. Hopefully if there are lawyers involved they are actually communicating with the Patent Office, which would mean someone there is actively considering the application. I have a feeling that getting to that stage requires the longest part of the wait.
Tokamak I know I'm seen as some sort of badash demon for posing contrary opinions here, but this is a straight-forward question from one who has waited, as an investor, for patents to be approved for a small biotech company: you say that lawyers are working on RT's "Patent Application,"--have you heard an estimate of how long you can expect to wait for final approval?
It is great for a small business to be in control of its technology and not have to worry about being sued for infringement on another company's tech--but the wait can be hell, if it means that licensing to others will have to wait as well. In biotech, it can take up to 3 years for approval. I don't know if electronic/internet tech takes more or less time. And I don't know if they put themselves at risk if they try to license the tech before it is patent protected. Have you discussed this with the company?
MWM Actually all I've seen here is that ReelTime has major movies because Lions Gate is involved. But I knew something good would come from posting my cautionary words on this board: near the end of your movie list is Atlas Shrugged, which I didn't know was a project anywhere. I couldn't find anything recent on Google to tell me that last fall's plans for a production start this spring are actually happening. So the list you posted isn't entirely accurate as to what is available now from Lions Gate. I'll be sure to check out the company site when the content from LG is available to subscribers.
Tokamak Thank you for a thoughtful reply. I have printed it out and will compare your projections to what plays out in the future.
I also revisited the reeltime site and checked out again the movie catagories I have some hope of evaluating for "known" films--drama, action/adventure, sci-fi. Didn't see much outside of the historical selections, although I admit to wanting to click on "Charade" for a trip down memory lane. I also went to Lionsgate to see what they offer there, then went back to reeltime to look up a couple of popular recent titles. Reeltime doesn't seem to have all the Lionsgate films, so it is somewhat misleading to say "We have Lionsgate on Reeltime." Whether things like the "Saw" series show up later on Reeltime may depend on the success of PPV. I also noted considerable overlap in the drama and adventure catagories, so there are fewer total movies than it would appear. I don't think of that as deceptive, by the way, just a way to make sure a browser sees what might interest him/her.
Your analysis depends in large part on the success of the company in increasing subscribers. At the time of the most recent SEC filing, now 4+ months old and due for an update next week, there was revenue to support the thought of a small subscriber base. Until there are posted facts to support belief in larger numbers I don't know if it is realistic to believe in a 25,000 subscriber base, let alone by the end of the summer. Drawing in businesses for training films and such may also work, but unless I read things incorrectly, that it still a small part of current business.
Niche offerings may work. Expanding all the content catagories may work. Everything may work. There are certainly enough initiatives in progress to yield the result current investors hope for. And I'll definitely agree that when there is a bottom line showing a profit, ReelTime will do well in the stock market.
Dr. J Interesting prognostication, in that you expect the market to value this company at over $120,000,000 based on having a catalog of stuff that costs them nothing to have available to subscribers. A lot of it old or niche products, some non-blockbuster movies--and maybe some porn, soon to be posted. Let's see, given the company's burn rate, how many subscribers will they need to turn a profit, let alone one to justify the $120M market cap you envision?
Taking the market by storm after the major news issued after market hours yesterday. I would be very concerned by this reaction if I owned shares.
I'll admit that today's news makes the stock worth watching tomorrow. If the new eyeballs don't end up pushing the subscriber list over the magic 10K mark, it will be the absence of a followup PR that will be most pronounced.
Mr. Munch I figured, what the hulk, and called the number you gave me, got MG, asked him about the cash on hand currently, and he said: "I don't have that information." Hiding my surprise, I asked if there were any plans to raise funds by selling stock, and he said there wouldn't be any of that at these share prices.
Considering that the 10Q will be due in less than 2 weeks, the pressing question of company cash will have to wait for fulfillment of SEC requirements.
As an addendum, I asked if he could tell me the subscriber base at this point. He said they wouldn't release exact numbers, but it is currently below 10,000, and when they reach that number, they will issue a PR.
I hope you find this helpful.
mr munch I have stated before that I have no stock in this company. I am not trying to scare anyone out of their strongly held shares. I am posting questions and opinions I formed while investigating this company and reading posts on this thread over the past couple of weeks. It may surprise you to know that I'm actually interested in the responses to tough questions.
The main guy says money isn't the problem? Has he said how much is left in the coffers after 4 months of burn since the 10K, and how he plans to keep the burn rate going? The remaining unissued shares are not going to go far if offered to a private buyer when the open market ask is .08. Private sales usually involve a significant discount to the market rate.
OldE You might want to look at the 10K numbers regarding revenues and cash burn. It looks to me like an incredible gulf between the two, requiring an order-of-magnitude increase in revenues to come close to paying the monthly bills.
Regarding the providers of content: are the licenses exclusive, or can they put their content on any website willing to list them for the perusal of the subscribers? Seems like any website could strike a deal with these content providers, if they thought the content would interest their subscribers. There goes the niche.
And please don't accuse me of trying to shake the proverbial tree in order to get cheap shares. As far as I can see, shares are as likely to be available again for .01 as they are to surpass .25, no matter how strong the hands of those posting here. There are an awful lot of outstanding shares, and unless they were issued with restrictions on selling, all the shares are potentially part of the float. .08 seems low only when viewed through rose tinted glass.
OldE You have put the positive case very well, but I wonder how you account for the burn rate detailed in the last SEC posting, the year end filing.
It is great to have no debt, the ultimate business killer, but the alternative is to turn unissued shares into issued shares in exchange for money--and the reserve of unissued shares has been trimmed back considerably, also detailed in the 10K. Do you not sense a day of reckoning looming?
rickj And I was thinking that being a shareholder means accepting that others create the value that allows you to make money on your investment. You don't know them, you don't know what they are doing day by day, and you don't know if they're trustworthy until they pull the rabbit out of a hat. How frustrating to be in such a position. So few can be there with equanimity.
I sense a little circularity to the reasoning here: the major studios can charge to have their fare available because they have what the majority of viewers want to see. The company can only afford the offerings of the majors if they have a much larger subscriber base. It will cost the company a significant amount of $$$ to acquire enough subscribers to make the addition of content from the majors possible. Yet the company would appear to have very little cash after 4 months of burn since the most recent accounting, and little ability to raise more through stock sales because there are so few shares left in the coffers. How will the company acquire the subscriber base to make it possible to pay for the content of the major studios?
This looks like a stock play based on the hope that the company will be acquired for its technololgy, not because the business plan will yield significant revenues any time soon, let alone show a profit. This is a pink sheets stock that isn't going to generate investor interest just by continuing as it has.
Has anyone asked management how much money is left and how they intend to expand into the content that will attract significant subscribers?
I don't know--at today's opening price you have a company valued at about $10 M. There is a little wiggle room left in the unissued but authorized shares, and the cash burn rate vrs $$ on hand at the end of the year looks like some kind of wall is just ahead. Where are the revenues to indicate that this company is acquiring the paying base of customers that will help keep the doors open when unissued shares can no longer be traded for operating funds?
You guys on this board have a lot of enthusiasm and I've seen some interesting marketing ideas on this thread. But it seems to this neutral observer that the biggest draw for the new customer would be access to popular movie titles, which is not what the company provides. Sorry, but political documentaries will not be a major draw, nor will decades old TV shows and small budget movies resembling the youtube offerings. The technology for delivering content may be the next big thing, despite the nearly daily announcements of major companies entering the content delivery space--but without the big audience attractors, it will go unused.
I have no axe to grind, and wish investors here the best. It just seems something is missing.
I'm interested to see if this new contract creates even a blip on the chart. I'm doubting the market cares at all.
lucky I believe you are correct. None of the recent communications, after mid-Feb., are available. I don't know whether this is suspicious or not.
shouldasold Had to track you down to say thanks for the message on the LFMI board. I sorta figured that the noise makers were hounding a specific poster--they'd respond to my post with a message for another guy. Some crew.
So what's with your loyalty to GBDX. Is there a "gem" hidden somewhere in the company info that is being ignored by the market [the pps chart is less than inspiring]. I've put this board on my reading list and will look for your reply. And I'll see if I can figure out whether to put a little down at these prices.
oh the high of mind just can't stop illuminating for the rest of us, taking 5 posts to say very little and 10 to say even less.
yes yes your vision of the future based on your misinterpretation of the past oh yes we must have a most meaningful discussion based on your stance your indignation your highminded openness and inquiring ever striving yearning for truth with your recent arrival to this board your friends in high places and your short selling proclivities and your takenoprisioners pronouncements.
The reverse split made the current company from a useless shell that hadn't done business or traded in half a decade or more. Any half intelligent reading of the website makes it clear that the current director was the cameraman for several hit movies, and that actors are anxious to work with him. The company has successfully made a movie that has wide distribution as a DVD. Results will be made public about the revenues when enough time has passed to have results.
There, now you have several clear statements allowing for minimal confusion and you can proceed to confuse them.
wmo Thanks for the post about your conversation. Good questions, and good to know that they were answered openly. I'm new to this investment, and am encouraged by the recent turn of events. If this doesn't come to pass after all the postive developments in the past couple weeks, I'll have to join all the seasoned longs who have been disappointed by trashed expectations. For now, I wait in a positive state of mind.
ezmoney Please come back. Your posts at least offer a wry sense of humor. These morons who have stolen this board are about to put me to sleep with their pseudo-analytical droppings. Has anything as tedious happened here in recorded history. They post and post and it amounts to back slapping and tongue kissing and bent over postures of those who must look in the mirror to appreciate life. Maybe they will do as they promised and go away until pps drops to their pre-arranged buy-in level.
hoops This may be some kind of "quiet period" affectation on the part of the companies involved. Closing down an unofficial information board for the duration seems a bit much, considering that accurate information is being gleaned by posters on this and the CDCH board from insider sources. They call it "chatter," and it hasn't done anything for the pps of either company. I'm hoping this affectation means that the current talks are more likely to reach fruition than those of last summer.
geoly Thanks for the work as intermediary. Property agreement it is.
Mr. Hound (or YO, Blood) Nice find. A few others come to mind as well. Obviously my local paper is deficient is economics commentary such as this.
The amazingly resilient LFMI rebounds from yet another plunge into unprofitable pps territory to end the day with no change, exposing the stated "float" as woefully understated. Has anyone heard an explanation from management that would account for the number of shares being traded these days?
WMO You started a series of posts with a fair number of possible explanations for the "acquisition" word. I'd guess most of us just skimmed over the phrasing. There are definitions of the term that could be extremeley profitable to longs. Here's hoping management has something in common with investors.
wmo Nice pickup regarding the wording of notice. "Acquisition" does spark some inquiry as to just what is being communicated here. The final agreement could make for some interesting reading.
Mr. Shorts Sounds good to me. Looks like those who have been reporting "chatter" have been right on. I REALLY want to see the final wording of the agreement, in a big fat PR.
Gotta say, given that Durante was an old geezer the first time I ever saw him, I never knew he was a crooner in his heyday. Since I found this out from the company PR, I'd have to think there may be a song or two in between dramatic episodes. I'm not a great biopic fan, so I don't know the formulas involved in creating a bio flic--but I suspect they'll find a way to weave the story in an appealing manner. I'm sure Adrian Brody can lip sync one of the old ballads.
Gee, a day after they option the script and they've already failed in casting the lead in the film. You must be a real expert on things movie-related to know all the different ways Leonidas will fail on a project 1 day old. Maybe they should hire you to plot the script for a startup movie company that goes down because they couldn't see all the different ways they could fail.
How about Adrian Brody--he's got the schnoze already in place? A little makeup and he's aged 50 years for the deathbed scene.
Cody I think it's more: offer enough to make a deal, then turn it over to the lawyers to make sure the final wording is the same as the working documents. If the posters here who claim to know what's going on inside the company are correct, we'll be seeing the final wording soon enough.
EZ Hate to rain on your carefully crafted responses to all things Leonidas, but a quick check of my local upstate New York Circuit City revealed that they carry actual DVDs of the Pleasure Drivers in the store. I would guess that this means the Sunday fliers were not in error, and that Circuit City stores everywhere have the DVD in stock.
Doesn't ensure stock market success, but it's not a bad sign, either.
And about the script option--maybe you could tone down the rhetoric a bit. If they've chosen to option the script, then they are going to take the next steps to bring it into production. And if it made into a decent movie, which seems likely, then it will appeal to people who might not know about Durante. As amazing at that may seem.
nuoa If the company gives you an accurate update on the float, my guess is that the past week's volume has at least doubled it, to 8M shares. Who sold and why may not be easy information to get hold of. If some kind of financing move was involved that ended up with new shares being sold on the open market after being bought by financiers in a private placement, both the Outstanding shares and the Float will have increased.
nuoa If the MMs are doing it, it probably benefits the MMs. Watch out for certain assumptions. Yesterday there appears to have been a 1M share purchase as well as two large blocks sold.
If this is to be the low, MMs benefit by gaining a large supply of stock, which can be sold during times of high demand for high percentage gains.
And it appears that an insider is moving out of a position in a major way. What other explanation is there for large-block sales in a small time spans? Naked shorting? As they say in the old country, whao back.