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Thanks Jack2479
Call Les Goldman.
I've been off the board for awhile as I stopped getting much out of it. I think several posters on here try to cause long term shareholders cognitive dissonance and shake us out of our positions. I just glanced at your post and it felt like I could have written it myself. IMHO the science works now we just have to have LP & co. execute! Good luck to all longs.
Good luck and all the best to you and your wife.
An interesting link which may mean nothing or a lot:
https://urology.ucsf.edu/people/eric-small
On board of Milken backed Prostate Cancer Foundation
https://www.linkedin.com/in/christine-yonemura-b5a9931/
Kidney care nurse at UCSF
This video is worth a watch:
https://www.facebook.com/lewishineofficial
Dr. Q is a member of the NWBO scientific advisory board:
http://www.doctorqmd.com/dr-q/
In addition to the staggered repayment schedule what I find interesting is that the notes are no longer convertible. In theory Whitebox could have demanded all shares for repayment of the $11mn. For sake of argument let's use a a price per share of $0.375 which equals over 29mn shares or 18% dilution. Instead they have only diluted by about 3%. Yes they still owe money but if they manage to get another loan there is the possibility of no further dilution from this note.
Is the trade of the year long NWBO and short NITE?
Think that is just about sorted and then next up is the Yonemura case on the 17th. I hope the person/people she is a beard for gets revealed when NWBO goes public with results of the investigation or if the SEC ever brings charges.
The $3mn they raised through debt prevented about a 6.5% dilution:
Current shares outstanding = 153mn
Price per share = $0.37
Assumed issue price of new shares = $0.30
New shares need to raise $3mn = 10mn
% of existing capital = 6.5%
Issuing debt is a good result for shareholders. In addition they have 6 investors willing to lend them money without any strings attached - no shares or warrants.
Sorry to hear of your family's loss and my sincerest condolences.
Probably less shares will be issued as there will almost certainly be the results of the P3 trial announced sometime in Q2/Q3. If, as most on this board expect positive outcome, fewer shares will be needed due to a higher stock price. In addition, as you point out, the cash burn should be less.
The MRHA can also approve drugs for use in the U.K.
Dr. Robert Prins of UCLA giving a two hour presentation entitled "Personalized immunotherapy for Glioblastoma"
http://www.abstractsonline.com/pp8/#!/4292/presentation/12558
I stand corrected, the ADCOM did not reverse it's decision the FDA did not act on it's recommendation. However, from my understanding this decision was not based on adequate manufacturing. But, if that was the case you must be very happy that Cognate has bought all those new clean rooms to ensure that there is adequate manufacturing capacity for DCVax.
Good analogy but if the trial is a success, as many of us hope, the shorts will likely look for ways to undermine the result. This is what they did with Dendreon and though Provenge was initially recommended for approval by the FDA Advisory Panel by a vote of 13-4 it was subsequently attacked and the decision reversed. If you have not done so already I suggest you read the Deep Capture report about the lengths the shorts went to to keep Provenge off the market. It would not be surprising if a similar thing happens to NWBO which makes the work of RK and Biosecinvestor battling accusations of poor trial design so important and though at times tedious it is unfortunately needed.
Knight Capital Group released their 10-K on Friday and I found this bit interesting:
"In the normal course of business, we maintain inventories of exchange-listed and other equity securities, and to a lesser extent, fixed income
securities and listed equity options. The fair value of these financial instruments at December 31, 2016 and December 31, 2015 was $2.54 billion
and $2.44 billion, respectively, in long positions and $2.05 billion and $2.11 billion, respectively, in short positions."
That's a massive short book.
The naked shorts won't be able to control the price when they are taken out of the game through various legal moves.
Very interesting and thanks for posting.
Very good points and agree LL is setting herself up for something big. It would be great to have her working for the company.
If L gets approved does LL join NWBO?
The other thing that may favor release of information under this scenario is a capital raising. Some have said they've been told by Les they have enough cash to last them until mid-year but given the recent cash burn which I estimate at around $3mn a month that makes a March/April funding event likely. Given that Linda now gets diluted along with us she will want to do this at the highest possible price and the only thing that will really get this stock price moving is news on the P3.
ASCO Submission Dates:
A preplanned analysis must be scheduled after February 7 but before March 16, which is the deadline for the final, updated late-breaking data. The policy is not a mechanism to allow for updated data to be submitted later when preliminary data are available by the abstract submission deadline. Phase III clinical research trials for which the final data are not available by the March 16 deadline may be granted an exception to submit up to two weeks later; however, the initial trial information MUST be submitted by the February 7 deadline. Later submission may have a negative impact on placement in the program.
So last possible date of submission is March 30th.
If we're right on that as well as a significant amount of naked shorts out there then the trade is long NWBO short NITE.
And they've failed. Let's hope any further tries meet the same fate.
As if all the other attempts haven't been fairly to really nasty, lol. :)
Agree on data and L&L but if the end game was squashing the technology and/or buying it for a song then they haven't won. This is what makes me think there will be one last attempt which could be fairly nasty.
Do you think the shorts will role over without one last ditch attempt to bring the company down? If they make one more try any idea what it could be?
A few months ago I revisited the DeepCapture piece about Dendreon to find what the doctors mentioned in the piece were now doing and if any had possible links to NWBO. The only one I could find with any possible tie was Dr. Eric Small who works at UCSF:
"Dr. Eric J. Small is co-director of the Urologic Cancer Service and director of Urologic Oncology Research. His patient care and research focus is prostate cancer, immunotherapy and the mechanisms of resistance to standard therapies. He is a member of several professional medical societies including the American Society of Clinical Oncology and the American Urological Association. He is a member of the Therapy Consortium of The Prostate Cancer Foundation, the largest private source of prostate cancer research funding, and on the board of directors of the American Prostate Cancer Foundation."
https://urology.ucsf.edu/people/eric-small
I found this interesting as the leading plaintiff in Yonemura vs. NWBO is one Christine Yonemura who is a Ambulatory Care Clinical Kidney Transplant RN at UCSF Medical Center.
These are the mentions of Dr. Small in the DeepCapture piece:
"With the exception of big pharma, there are only a few biotech firms that have received significant publicity for developing treatments for prostate cancer. One of these companies, Cougar Biotechnology, was, until last month, controlled by this Lindsay Rosenwald, who aside from running D.H. Blair in cahoots with people tied to the Mafia and Milken’s former national sales managers, is also a close friend of Milken himself. While Rosenwald was in control, Cougar Biotechnology’s scientific advisory board included four individuals affiliated with Milken’s Prostate Cancer Foundation – Dr. Eric Small, Dr. Michael Carducci, Dr. Philip Kantoff, and Dr. Howard Scher."
"The Prostate Cancer Foundation continued: “The PCF first provided funding to Dr. Eric Small...to support clinical research around measuring immune responses in patients treated with Provenge...”
"As for Dr. Small, he too was on the advisory board of Cougar Biotechnology. The Prostate Cancer Foundation did indeed give him funding to measure immune responses in patients treated with Provenge, but it is not at all clear that Milken’s “philanthropic” outfit was keen to see Dr. Small’s study yield positive results. When the study did yield positive results, Dr. Scher, the chairman of the Prostate Cancer Foundation’s Therapeutic Consortium (referred to in the above press release as the “Clinical Therapy Consortium”), spun them as negative results."
It is also interesting that Michael Milken is one of the largest backers of Juno Therapeutics. One can draw their own conclusions about these links but they certainly strike me as odd.
So does this mean no waterboarding?
Not to my knowledge which is why Canada had it's own trial of DCVax-L. Australia has it's own regulatory body Therapeutic Goods Administration. Aside from this I know little of how they work except they are totally independent from the U.K.
U.K. = Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales & England.
Agree but wouldn't that also hold true for the NICE application itself - what information do they have to base a decision on? A few days ago there was a post from I believe Highwayman showing that the FDA and MRHA share information. If the FDA has all the trial information, which has been suggested, then they could provide it to NICE and the MHRA.
The PIM designation was granted in Sept. 2014 but apart from building out the Sawston facility until the NICE application was there was no further news on the U.K. regulatory front. We even know that U.K. patients were forced to go to the U.S. to get the vaccine made (see Kat's Cure). So my guess is the company decided to forgo the EAMS. They were/are in no position to give away the treatment for free. I believe there are about 2,000 newly diagnosed GBM patients per year in the U.K. If they made DCVax-L available under EAMS who would they decided to treat? Wouldn't it be unethical to offer it on a limited basis? If so then the NICE application is a precursor to full approval and not EAMS.
Totally agree. The thing is when we hopefully get the news we expect and the stock runs the same morons in the the press who attacked the company and him will lionize him and say what a great investor he is for not cutting and running.
Dr. Linda Liau who has access to more data then he does tells us everyone is living longer.
Not only are there billions at stake here (as LG says) but there are also any number of jobs too.
Great find. So do you think that this means the FDA will provide data for the NICE application?
The MRHA is responsible for approving drugs for the U.K. and not the EMA. There are drugs that are approved for use in the E.U. which aren't in the U.K.
Do you think the company realize this? If not maybe send it to them?