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Never wonder why NWBO management has zero credibility even with their supporters in that even their supporters would tell you not to hang your hat on their PRs.
Remember when I said that it was worth paying attention that NWBO refused to use ‘will’ but stuck with ‘plans’ when describing that they would PR the handoff to the publisher?
Turns out I was right to note that they were giving themselves wiggle room and refused to speak straight even when it would help the SP and start to rebuild their credibility (provided they kept their word).
Now are we left to wonder:
Will we get another PR when they submit everything to the publisher and not just a partial?
Will they submit everything to MHRA or are we going to have to parse that PR too?
At least shareholders got something to work with if they are asked about their investment tomorrow at Thanksgiving. Based upon the several weeks estimate we can kiss submission to MHRA goodbye but we expected that by now.
Several is a very vague term and can mean a lot of things. It could well be that we get submission to MHRA by late December but it is also just as likely we’re once again looking towards 2024. This is assuming there are no hidden dubsteps between the publisher completing the package and NWBO actually and finally submitting it.
I can see is long term shareholders around the Thanksgiving table dodging questions about ‘that dancer stock’ and not even bothering to say ‘2024 will be the year for real this time I swear!’
Unless you brought some spiked Kool Aid as the festive bowl of punch for the whole family to drink, they are not going to want to hear another contorted explanation of why it is normal Ave not a big problem that we are 3 years out from data lock and have yet to apply to even the smallest and most friendly regulator when we have a safe treatment for a fast-killing disease with no other treatments on the horizon.
Thanksgiving should have been a great Word of Mouth opportunity for shareholders who could have talked about a submission that will be getting an up or down decision within months.
Instead it’s wasted or probably is a negative especially if some families stage interventions.
The publisher has not received the MAA as of today.
So if the publisher needs 2-3 weeks then that means that even if they received it tomorrow, November 20, 2023 it would be too late to see submission in November 2023 as 2 weeks (the minimum time) is 14 days and the month ends on the 30th.
This means that unless a near first in NWBO history, wherein NWBO (and those they outsource work to) comes in early, happens, NWBO has effectively already come in late.
I’m surprised that some are not floating the thin reef of hope that NWBO has combined the announcement of sending to the publisher with that of submission to the MHRA without warning us beforehand (they did not use binding language and are free to change plans yet again with no repressions other than anger from powerless retailers).
7 months (more than half a year) is not ‘a few months.’ 5 months would barely be a few months as it is close to half a year.
What does a few months mean in concrete terms?
I would say two to five months.
If you are getting to half a year that’s more than just ‘a few.’
Hopefully someone can rebut this analysis with facts instead of name calling because it looks like we could be delayed until 2025 for meaningful commercialization in the UK if you’re right.
NWBO is not getting fed, that’s the whole issue.
And if there is double super secret pressure from regulators really exists then NWBO created the problem by buying a cut rate technology and giving out the idea that the process could be automated when the last 3 years show it was not ready for prime time.
If there was no Flaskworks then the regulator would have to accept DCVax-L as is or nothing and patients keep dying.
They would accept good enough and then, with a better market cap that comes with approval we could explore automation from a stronger position.
Instead we have yet another open ended process tacked onto even starting to get DCVax-L priced correctly by the market.
Is there a law or regulation that states that NWBO could not explain this issue to shareholders?
Assuming there is no law or regulation, the ‘regulator will get mad’ does not suffice as a reason at this very late date when TLD is public as is that JA we had to wait forever for.
I doubt they are harsh enough to condemn thousands of patients (more) to death out of spite by imposing arbitrary delays or rejecting DCVax-L.
The price is not going to remain sub-$1 once the clock is running on and up or down in RA approval.
Let’s say NWBO attains at least $1 a share with no more pullbacks (very realistic heading into a binary event after submission is PR’d).
That’s a 15% gain right there, which is nothing to sneeze at.
In fact many non-committed investors apparently buy, harvest the gain by selling and then rinse and repeat.
NWBO leaves things ambiguous and at this point it’s hard to argue that it is not deliberate.
NWBO they never said they would PR, they merely ‘planned’ to update us.
This distinction matters with this company in way it might not with most other firms.
NWBO is infamous for not adhering to plans and changing them to our detriment, with little or no warning and for reasons seldom (if ever) made clear.
So as long as they are able to use ‘forward looking statements’ and are not under the gun of ‘let’s keep our word this time or we get sued’ one cannot rely upon what they said, emotionally and certainly not financially and the share price reflects the market discounting what they say very heavily indeed.
I suspect they did not skip the PR for the publisher step and instead the same apparent fecklessness that caused the consultant to be unavailable to NWBO at a critical juncture earlier would also cause the consultant not to work with little seeming urgency now (assuming the consultant is back as ‘expected’ and we aren’t waiting for nothing and the clock isn’t even running yet).
The week ends Saturday so we have today, Thursday, Friday and Saturday left to work with.
I really wish these folks would quit going down to the wire on every damn deliverable.
How’s Lopezzz doing?
When the folks caught red handed using two accounts return here to pump that’s not a good sign as a dump will follow and because it suggests no good news is expected in the next few days or we could not be set up for that dump.
I don’t think less than $1 a share represents approval being priced in and what happens post submission in December or January will prove that. The market is presently heavily discounting approval because there have been too many false dawns. The market is pricing this as “We’ve heard enough big talk that takes forever. Come back to me when you actually earn approval. Then we’ll fully value this.”
Please define slightly missed in terms of days. I did back in October when I gave NWBO more time because I realized they might need it (though even what I have then was not nearly enough).
You are one of the dark forces if you sold us out for a profit while acting like you supported DCVax-L and this technology.
You don’t get to brag about trading this stock and make fun of us bag holders who did not sell and rebuy at the right times and then act like one of the good guys.
Talk is cheap and I hear a lot of people talk good about NWBO and then we find latter that they quietly sold after they couldn’t help themselves and started bragging.
What counts is not talk but what you invest and as importantly, what you keep invested when times are tough is what counts.
We had the damn rug pulled on us but when it comes to NWBO we never pulled the rug on them. Far from pulling the rug, we made Godot a freaking red carpet but he just won’t come.
Hopefully they will follow through. If they do, I am happy to give them space to work until approval.
I expect it to but it should not be saved around in our face any more than Neville Chamberlain waved around that treaty. NWBO can and gas flipped the script and without satisfactory reasons or at least ones they have been willing to share, even years afterwards.
Probably they will do as they said or rather they said they planned but until it happens we can’t take it as something certain and argue that those skeptical that they will follow through are wrong.
I am arguing that as long as they hide behind forward looking statements we can only believe something after it happens and you keep acting like they said ‘will’ when they didn’t, they said ‘plan’. If they hadn’t used such wiggle room to let us down before then I’d be pointing out a distinction without a difference but their track record as recently as Friday the 13th speaks for itself.
Maybe this time will be different.
Unless we start seeing real revenue to NWBO coming out of Advent’s operations (which should have happened by now) or we get transformative news like an approval (even submission is probably not enough) the CDMO/Cognate Redux narrative will keep resurfacing.
Alternately at the upcoming ASM, Linda Powers could address that concern directly (without hiding behind the forward looking statement) but hell will probably freeze over first.
Right now shareholders have to wonder what is legally and otherwise to stop history from repeating itself.
It’s not really pumping by Bio because if the low revenue is really explained by NWBO simply giving away treatments for hundreds of patients at our expense without telling us is an issue and speaks to a lack of business sense. Spending that kind of money even for a good cause would effect existing shareholder equity since it comes from dilutive financing.
I am all for offering discount on a sliding scale but even with that we should get more than $400,000 in revenue. Two patients at full price would presumably bring that $400,000 about so what could many patients at reduced price do?
Still I don’t think Bio is right or we wouldn’t have GBM patients from the UK rattling the can for donations as one post yesterday showed, they would be talking about how NWBO generously helped them.
Will they be ‘upbeat’ for us when we each individually have to call for information?
What a joke.
Anything they can say to one retail shareholder should be said to all.