Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
I tried to help enforce the bet from December 2023 as I said I would try to do, got pushback as I suspected in advance that I would and so I decided enough was enough and I stepped down.
I can’t speak for Dr. Bala.
Indications.
As I recall Direct was tried in the Phase 1 trial on multiple types of cancers and they were supposed to drill down a few for the Phase 2 trial but like many expectations we were given as investors that vanished into thin air. He could also be referring to UCLA working with Direct to get to 15 but maybe it was all in the Phase 1.
Who cares? The delay with L has sucked away all the available resources and Direct has stagnated.
Until L gets approved and our SP gets high enough to allow us to raise funds, it’s academic and anything he says about Direct is going to be discounted down to nothing.
Time is an aspect of keeping an expectation one gives out to shareholders (NWBO makes few promises at this point that are enforceable).
After long enough, time becomes nearly as important as the quality of what is (eventually) delivered.
If I tell the 70+ year olds and 80+ year olds here that NWBO will hit $50 a share suddenly but not for another 5 years, then the time factor makes the quality of the outcome far less impactful. Even the 50+ year olds 60+ year olds are losing prime years to enjoy the money.
That said NWBO shareholders can, after each delay, just decide to keep lowering their expectations in terms of the eventual payout and how long it will take to get there. While they don’t get voted free shares like management they can ante up more and lower their dollar cost average a bit, though being overweight in NWBO that is not risk-free as time is a factor.
Patients, well, patients don’t have that luxury, not the ones who need L and not the ones who need Direct though by the time Durect ever hits the market most of the patients in dire need will sadly not be concerned at all.
Hopefully 2023 is the last year we ever have to have this discussion but that’s up to NWBO and what kind of relationship they’ve built with regulators. Hopefully their slowness and silence (beyond what the law requires) earned many brownie points with FDA and MHRA they will finally cash in.
My issue is not so much with the Big Biz show per se but with the fact that this anemic effort represents practically the only visible attempt by NWBO at media and investor relations. Well that and the fact that since September 2020 a Les appearance on the Big Biz show has been a harbinger of less than great things to come.
If NWBO feels some weird loyalty to this venue and wants to go on there fine but they need to go a lot of other places if they are serious about getting traction.
Also when people hear that great things will be happening and you come around to the same place and say ‘great things will be happening’ and they don’t happen (as measured by the SP) you come around to the same place with the same SP folks tune it out and are in ‘Show me first and then I’ll take you seriously.’
Thus clear communication is crucial but so is execution.
It’s really emblematic of NWBO’s communication that we have to try and date a video of an NWBO executive like we did when another video was smuggled out of Tora Bora.
Still based upon the prior history here, the fact that he is appearing on the Big Biz show suggests that nothing great is happening ‘soon.’ Hopefully the pattern will be broken.
NWBO is a biotech company and not a lawsuit company and we were always going to live or die by DCVax-L and Direct technology and how execution and communication about that technology takes place.
So while this cannot be recast as a victory for the company neither is it a very meaningful defeat for shareholders.
Instead of just thinking it might be and hyping possible news go create a PACER login and find out. It’s easy enough to use and unless you are constantly searching for documents use is free.
Well you can start enforcing the bet you have in your signature line and I’ll help.
Have we confirmed whether Ex actually bet or not?
No which is why I said that would an uncharitable view. Still the fact that shareholders have to get an informant to get them information about what is really going on is pretty crazy, as is having to threaten other shareholders who criticize the governing regime.
I would be fine with the current leadership team changing their ways but after the events of Fall 2020 and again in Fall/Winter 2023 they are who they are and we have to hope that eventually the science story can finally overshadow everything else. It’s up to NWBO management to change their ways and the situation and not for us to say it’s okay.
While your point that nothing improved is true, there is no way we get new leadership so that’s not worth discussing. Even if we did, the new folks would probably screw existing shareholders over as they restructured and probably feel virtuous doing it as they had ‘saved’ the company and were entitled to do with NWBO as they pleased.
Only approvals by RAs or a BP making the current management team an offer so lucrative they can’t refuse will improve things.
It said this:
Journal Publication
published 02 May, 2023
Everyone has different experiences and I am not saying you are wrong. I can only speak to what I am familiar with dealing with them. It could be they handle different customers differently and I doubt I am their top priority. Variances like that could explain why 3 different NWBO shareholders report 3 different things about the same company.
You make a good general point though Schwab allows purchases of new NWBO shares to add to an existing position. I am not sure if they are letting folks start new positions because that could be a different matter.
I am aware that they charge for buying an OTC stock and that they impose basically a four or five business day lockup on newly added funds before you can buy NWBO with them.
My shares are in an account that does not use margin so cannot be lent out. Thus as soon as I bought them they had to be delivered in the same way they would have if I converted them to certificates. Now if you want to claim that a major brokerage is engaging in fraud and allowing shares to remain loaned out without my permission then I can’t help you.
As I said wrong, and I never gave an absurdly low number that for my share count.
I have tens of thousands of shares bought at over $11 at the highest down to 17 cents a share at the lowest and my position was accumulated over the last 10 years (longer than you have been invested).
If people want to do the certificate thing then they can do it.
I wish you nothing but the best and am praying for you to make a full recovery.
No you got it wrong but I think you knew that.
The harm is that when one takes one’s shares out of a brokerage selling them becomes more cumbersome, and cannot necessarily be done on a dime.
Illiquid investments are undesirable compared to liquid ones, all things being equal. Whether it’s a a big harm depends upon whether one ever needs to sell quickly (as nearly happened to prominent NWBO enthusiast some months ago).
True believers in the tech like myself might well stick through to BO or BK and if we decide to sell some after a huge and permanent rise it could be done in days or weeks without being an issue.
The problem is that we need NEW investors to get our SP out of the sewer system.
Convinving new investors that any shares they just bought or might buy might be counterfeit and that they had better make their NWBO investment illiquid just to ensure that they have real shares is an idea likely to scare folks off. If folks want to buy an investment that could be fake they’ll just stay in crypto so we want to avoid making them think NWBO is that kind of Wild West stuff when it’s not.
As a long term shareholder who has never sold I am the perfect shareholder for not caring about liquidity issues and transferring to certificates but most of shareholders and especially new ones are not in that category and if they get the idea they can’t safely stay with a broker they will likely stay away..
Maybe I’ll transfer some just to see the process but I think this is not something to scare everyone into.
BP is well known for buying growth but they are also not above buying a competing treatment, not to stymie advancement as some would claim (everybody including BP execs can be stricken with cancer at any time after all) but because they already have a ‘better’ platform they believe in and want to avoid distractions. If their product fails after all, well then they have other IPs to go back to because they bought it. Really this should be an anti-trust issue since oligopolies and monopolies creating ‘efficient markets’ can be positive in some respects but overall is bad.
Every new dollar that is printed reduces the purchasing power of the dollars you already have because the a greater number of dollars chase the same number of goods and services at least until production can catch up.
Anyone paying attention from 2020 to now should hav learned the consequences of running the printing press and how it results in rampant inflation and the diminished value of dollars.
The same goes for NWBO shares, until the company gets media coverage or somehow brings in a lot more buyers an ever higher number of shares are chasing the same retail investors who are tapped out and can’t afford to keep risking money. Yes retail still generates buying pressure which is why this stock is not at 20 cents but we get no backup or support from the company and the traders sap any momentum we build and the printing of shares does the rest.
That’s fair enough and those types of examples the fact that NWBO could not get a real partnership or a buyout long ago was hard to understand. I chalk it up to the apparent desire by NWBO management to retain total control at almost any cost.
That need to retain control was, if one wants to be charitable was to ensure a BO did not mean that DCVax-L would be buried. Once MHRA approval is obtained burying DCVax-L is much harder so hopefully that puts NWBO in a position to play nice with others on ways they apparently could not or would not before.
I agree with you that we could get a much higher valuation with a partnership or other big investment.
A big investor is still a possibility I think the Cathie Wood talk is like the old references to Warren Buffet more hype and desire for it to happen more than anything solid. Still at least Wood is in the technology space and unlike Buffet she could really use a winner at this point. If she takes even a modest stake and NWBO explodes she looks like a genius again.
My concern is that while we’ve been able to keep Bigger around and that reduces concern that NWBO can’t play nice with others. Bigger was a long time ago and with a product that is pending an up or down on approval we are in a different place whatever the SP says.
NWBO actually gave a number for the reps they would need but I don’t have it close to hand. They did not say ‘no infrastructure’ and gave their reasoning. As far as patient support, even now patients can call NWBO and get information and that responsiveness has been an area I don’t have to knock them on.
I am not a shareholder who bought the Merck / Duffy narrative but since you mentioned it I gave my opinion on what could happened.
I guess I believe in NWBO’s boasting about their market of doctors being small enough they don’t require a huge sales force.
I am not counting on Merck but remember if you think Merck is involved and if that is publicly known post approval then that is a conversation changer as well, especially if NWBO starts relearning IR and PR after taking from sometime in 2015 to 2023 off.
NWBO can start projecting revenue once they have approval and concrete discussions of revenue change the conversation. Those other milestones were really like PFS substitutes for the OS which is approval and commercialization. Also at least in theory, NWBO. Can talk about their product as an approved product.
Naturally there’s management risk and if they are over cautious in communicating even after approval etc. much of the benefit could be blunted.
$10 a share right now, with no more waits and no risk of getting screwed would count as decent.
With real estate prices being what they are what I would get is no longer a fortune even compared to 2 or 3 years ago or ‘life changing money’ and would not be wholly ‘worth it’ as an exchange for 10 years but at least the drama would be over.
The longer this has dragged on the more and more it takes for this to have been worth it.
A full buyout lower that $10 a share would be a real let down though giving away an equity stake but not the whole thing for $5 or even $2.50 a share might make strategic sense to raise funds. Plus having the credibility BO brings is worth a lot to the SP.
A full and near term buyout $20 a share would be amazing and worth it but I just don’t see that happening without additional years and years of waiting and of course the risk that like what we see now, the day or reward retreats ever further into the future.
Submission was hyped too much this fall and then delayed so the fact of a late 2023 submission lost its luster and was (largely) baked into the share price cake by the time it arrived. The fact that NWBO actually followed through (though very belatedly) created a brief burst of positive sentiment followed by the profit taking traders bringing it down. That’s the calm explanation.
We have a good chance of steady appreciation as we get closer to anticipated MHRA approval and now that the clock is ticking at the regulator there is going to be more support for the SP at around this level until the next catalyst.
I think we’ve heard the ‘moving forward’ with Direct story before and nothing materialized so that’s just raw speculation. Despite not running a pivotal trial NWBO sure burns through cash so I don’t think Direct is needed to explain dilution. They can consume a lot just limping towards MHRA approval.
I have little use for their leadership and especially their style of communication since the Buzdar situation but even from my perspective as a longtime shareholder who remembers when the SP was regularly counted in dollars and not cents, NWBO management have not done anything criminal.
NWBO management seems to have a very flexible definition of the word annual in ASM. Even their most dogged supporters cannot deny this, it’s just a debate about whether it is okay or not.
It is unlikely NWBO will hold two ASMs in 2024 just get back on a regular schedule. Being very late will remain in the corporate DNA even though 2024 should be a better year for us than we’ve had in ages. It is what it is at this point and no one can make these folks improve.
It is inaccurate to say Linda Powers hasn’t made a public appearance in decades. Maybe she’s barely done so since the Buzdar controversy but even that was still within the last decade.
If it acts as a catalyst that sharply and permanently raises NWBO’s share price then like any other catalyst with that effect it could help create conditions for Big Pharma to make a decent offer.
Most NWBO catalysts have been underwhelming as far as SP impact and so it is hard to project what this one will do or not do. If NWBO can change its media posture and get eyeballs on the fact that its lawsuit passed an important hurdle then maybe it will matter.
It’s not skipping so much as being very late but I see your point.