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You forgot the key lesson of drug running, ‘Don’t get high on your own supply’
I’ve never claimed to be a bull or a bear because I regard those categories as more fit for traders and not committed long term shareholders like myself.
I have been bearish in sentiment often because unless NWBO management changed their ways things would stay flat or go down and the issues they created continually overshadowed the science story.
When management started showing signs of improving on communication I was ready to embrace that, partly because you don’t encourage good behavior by ignoring it.
As the weeks have passed and we got another Bog Biz show appearance (a sign of their old ways as in September 2020) yes, I will become more ambivalent and what I say will reflect that.
I still think that they’ll make my more generous timeframe of October 31, 2023 because I know they stink at estimates so I helped them out.
The buying opportunity becomes more lucrative but also riskier in a corresponding degree with each day that passes with no NWBO PR. If for the sake of a hypothetical one said no news in the window most use (up until October 13th) then most lucrative but also riskiest buying opportunity would be between October 14, 2023 and whenever we find out that either NWBO was merely late or we get some kind of October 5th scenario (the latter being highly unlikely).
I still believe that NWBO is going to treat their shareholders right with submission and that buying more under $1 is a reasonable risk as is holding rather than selling the existing position.
You disagree and while NWBO history is unfortunately on your side, common sense and the negative impact of not following through that will hurt them business wise for months or years is in my side.
Nothing bad has happened yet and while I wish this buying opportunity would just close already and we would rocket into new territory, it is still a buying opportunity.
I think you are right but I am giving them until COB October 31, 2023 just to be fair and because this is NWBO and when folks with a poor history of punctuality try to clean up their act, the universe almost seems to conspire to screw them, especially if being late one more time would cause them to face severe consequences.
I am betting that won’t happen in this case but one lingering concern I have is that at the last minute NWBO management might be tempted to delay for some perceived advantage or to avoid some problem. That’s another reason to give them until month’s end instead of demanding total punctuality.
At least with respect to month’s end, they to need ignore that devil on their shoulder and actually follow through, even if submitting on time means some short term pain or the loss of some benefit only they seem to ever see.
Rebuilding trust with their shareholders and markets will really encourage more shareholders to hold instead of sell out if we have another run up after news so it’s not about appeasing some loud long term shareholders but about what makes good business sense. That is worth more than any advantage from failing to PR as ‘anticipated.’
Was he ‘upbeat’ as well as rested? In all seriousness 1 PR on submission is worth one hundred of these Big Biz appearances but if he can just speak clearly and not muddy the waters on the time frame then that would be enough and if going on there makes him feel good then fine, as long as NWBO keeps to their anticipation.
On 8/29 NWBO management started doing what other shareholders and I had reasonably asked them to do for many years which included providing a clear time frame for executing on a catalyst.
If they have even partially given in and said “Yes, we’ll finally give you a reasonably clear time frame on the core issue you care about and not some side-quest” then I have to take Yes for an answer because they have partly answered by sincere and deeply sought after desire.
So it should be no surprise that despite the bad blood between their self-appointed (and hopefully not paid) surrogates and I, NWBO management deserves a chance to either make a fool out of me as they did this time 3 years ago when I had started to trust them again or to prove by deeds and not words that they’ve changed this time around.
I have bet that they have learned something and I hope I am right.
Unfortunately, there is no mechanism for enforcing these bets so while what you said is funny, it hardly matters.
With that bet the Captain’s at the bargaining stage, not acceptance. In all seriousness, I hope he doesn’t have to quit posting because they don’t let him (or the rest of us) down.
Sadly, no. I guess this one thinks that asking NWBO to move in a timely fashion was some form of reverse psychology that caused them to go even slower. There’s probably more using than running going on to support that kind of nutty thinking.
I am giving them until October 31, 2023 to see if we get a trick or a treat. That covers approximately. The market may not be as generous.
Mostly right though I think your grade on communication is a bit too generous though if they follow through on what they said in their August 2023 PR then it would be more reasonable.
The impatience is somewhat reasonable though individually I will only be concerned once the time frame NWBO has set forth has actually closed and we have heard nothing back. I even added until COB October 31, 2023 just to be extra fair.
If NWBO fails to deliver by the end of October 2023, I can largely leave it others to debate the issue as my NWBO holdings crash in value (again). At least the popcorn and leftover Halloween candy will be good.
I am still betting and have bet with incremental small purchases, that NWBO is not playing us for fools again.
After seeing your post I saw that the SP was 91 cents. On what basis are you making this prediction?
Is something happening today or tomorrow the rest of us would like to know about that will guarantee $1 or higher closes from now on?
Ultimately if regulators are hostile they’ll find a pretext to reject the trial. If they are neutral or friendly they’ll realize that no effective treatment for GBM is within half a decade of approval and so they’ll approve and reserve the right to revoke approval if the efficacy isn’t good enough. If NVCR with their numbers could get and stay approved do can NWBO’s product.
Unless you can show where NWBO had to address this alleged issue (which you have raised at 1 minute to midnight) in the recently approved pediatric trial, regulators seem to have no issue here.
Fair enough.
After seeing your post, I got curious and looked on their side of the fence, where I don’t go since I have no shares in their company.
What I saw made me feel worse for their retailers because if one just scrolls through their board one finds they are getting hammered by some very familiar folks from here who probably aren’t shareholders of that company too and yet they are there spouting off. Also I saw some who are upset at folks coming on the NWBO board and root against a cancer treatment doing the same to NVCR shareholders on their board. Go figure.
The NVCR investors even get to see the same person with a lot of heart who flip-flops every day in one liners.
At least over here with NWBO we’re about to get good news after so many bad years whereas NVCR investors enjoyed what is good for so long and must now have their share of what is bad.
Submitting an application to MHRA at this very late stage is a matter entirely within their control and so no, NWBO would get no pass from me.
They chose to do a PR and could have specified any time frame they pleased so it’s on them if they do not follow through.
By November 1, 2023 we’ll know one way or another.
This is still a buying opportunity for NWBO. New investors can build a position with greater confidence than past investors had and only at a modest premium compared to the lower risk.
No one can time the market and guarantee getting the lowest price or avoid the stock going down more after purchase, but any price under $1 is a great deal in the medium and even short term.
We’ve also heard that time is running out for about a decade as well.
I’m betting this time it’s actually true, though like all the other milestones we’ve had, it might be best to not inflate expectations for what it will mean when time does run out. All the boasting of short squeezes etc. might apply to other stocks but not here.
I am expecting that when NWBO announces submission there will be a new floor under the SP that puts up between $1.25 and $2 with the ability to move up in anticipation of regulatory approval thereafter.
Whether RA approval results in a huge a permanent SP increase depends upon how well management has learned about how to work the media and investors. We’ll see then but that’s probably in Q1 2024. It’s likely though to help a whole lot as approval allows future revenue to be projected and not just speculated.
Lowered (reasonable) expectations are best for one’s sanity and not to turn a success into a failure and good times i to bad.
Anyone who was here and thought 3 or 4 years ago that NWBO was working behind the scenes with regulators and that great news could come any day (on approval no less!) has slinked away now or doesn’t bring that up. TLD was good but not what the boasting would have had everyone believe in advance and the effect on the SP was the opposite of expectations that had been held for a decade and more. No one predicted it would be rolled out by a 3rd party with little media attention though retroactively it is made to sound inevitable. More examples like the impact of the two JAs could be cited but folks were either here and remember or choose to remember the excitement or not.
It is another buying opportunity unless one believes that NWBO will fail to follow through on submission and PRing submission. I do not believe they will be that awful this time around.
I hope it’s a misquote but as long as NWBO keeps to their time frame for the submission (and presumed PR) of submission then today is a huge annoyance but no more than that.
No one knows except NWBO management but I seriously doubt Les Goldman went on the Big Biz show to say ‘coming weeks’ and then have news come out tomorrow.
Mr. Goldman is apparently coming on the show next week and hopefully it will be to talk about next steps after submission because submission will be in the rear view mirror.
NWBO shareholders remember his appearance in September 2020 and what that turned out to mean for us on October 5, 2020 and while I bought more on speculation that appearances not withstanding they will not do a repeat of 3 years ago, I think everyone with a brain would prefer that NSBO had released the submission PR or at least shut up instead of having Mr. Goldman go on that I’ll-opened show.
Still, maybe management just wants to give us another buying opportunity. It’s hard to figure out how they think yesterday was going to help the rally shareholders had created out of their August 2023 PR.
Current buying opportunity. I bought a few hundred more this morning.
NWBO went up dramatically in the last few weeks because NWBO in writing gave us close as they would ever get to saying that they were going to submit to regulators within a clear time frame.
This appearance by Mr. Goldman is hopefully a blip, and does not represent a regression to their old ways of vague communication.
We’ll all know by November 1, 2023 which is a date that gives them ample wiggle room to follow through and covers any reasonable interpretation in ‘approximately’ in their last PR.
NWBO publicly anticipated a fairly clear time frame for submitting to MHRA and that time frame has not yet past.
How about this?
If All Souls Day 2023 arrives and NWBO management has not at least PR’d submission to MHRA then no independent shareholder should attack you for unloading on management for that delay, even if they prefer to stay silent on the issue themselves.
But before that date, I would suggest giving management the chance to prove they are changing their ways and putting a stop to successive delays.
It’s up to you of course.
Every dip is a buying opportunity and while the requirement to use fully cleared cash puts a cramp on many retailers and artificially tamps down demand, any shares that become cheap are still getting scarfed up.
Saying things like that is not consistent with the science. There is no effective treatment for GBM and the compliance issues with the helmet make it impractical except as a stop gap to buy patients tule for something like DCVax-L.
It’s better than nothing and I will not trash the helmet just because I have a financial interest in DCVax-L succeeding and NVCR not being a competitor but I will call it as I see it.
We are getting approved, at least in the UK and that will put pressure on the FDA.
Sounds good to me.
I’ll sure feel a lot better if NWBO would just get that submission PR out there and have done with it.
The anticipation PR was a glimmer of hope that I am trusting despite my better judgment because I have to believe they have some humanity not treat us again like September/October 2020. That was and will remain cruel.
The sooner they address the issues a number of us have with them by actions as well as words the sooner I can leave them to it. It’s been too many years and if they are really, finally listening to us, it will be good to just enjoy the gains and see what kind of ends they achieve to justify the means they have used.
My expectations are low enough at this point and I will work to be satisfied and happy to just take what we can get if they would just start giving it to us already after so many years. No more delays. No more detours.
Hopefully they won’t milk that ‘approximately’ and will just have the human decency to PR within 45 days of their anticipation and not make us sweat it out by even looking late.
As always they will do what they do.
Of course NWBO cannot be on the list of approvals if we haven’t even applied. Thankfully NWBO has anticipated when they would apply and that time is not yet here.
I am not sure what your point is.
The big talk that a bunch of great stuff was happening behind the scenes and that RA approvals would come out of the blue was something many seasoned NWBO shareholders like myself dismissed and we have been proven right by NWBO’s own BBC statement of how things are anticipated to proceed.
So in that context, again I’m not sure what you’re saying here.
I agree it is stupid to be short NWBO and that anyone who stays short is foolish and taking a risk for little comparative reward.
149 days us still less than most NWBO investors (by far) but I take your point.
You are debating a point I never made.
I never said credit cards had the same rate of interest as the shorts pay and further it is worth noting that high interest rate for the shorts is something that happened recently too.
Rather I am saying that NWBO shareholders are likely to stay in their positions far longer than shorts and so if some of them are living with other debts to avoid selling NWBO those shareholders could end paying out more in interest overall.
A lot of people come into unexpected expenses and are not spendthrifts or gamblers who are bad investors who happened to find NWBO. Indeed in the last few years at least one prominent NWBO long publicly faced a choice of selling a lot of their NWBO position to come up with funds for one reason or another though they subsequently indicated that they avoided selling after all. I am assuming they managed that without taking on debt or filing to pay off debt but just as many would potentially turn to debt to avoid selling right before big news.
Assuming 115.68% is a yearly and not monthly interest rate then that is not as impressive as it looks since I doubt they are keeping positions on a volatile penny stick open that long.
In a bitter irony I suspect that at least some of the more economically constrained NWBO shareholders have probably kept credit card balances so that they didn’t have to sell their NWBO shares to pay bills and these folks might have (in effect) paid more in interest to be long NWBO than others have to be short.
Regardless, like other long-term NWBO investors I never held anything on my account on margin or took the option to use margin so they can’t borrow my NWBO shares.
To paraphrase Lenin I don’t want anyone to be able say that ‘the NWBO shareholders will loan us the shares to short them with.’
Unfortunately true though anything over 45 days will evoke memories of what it was like from October 1, 2020 and October 5, 2020 and I am betting that NWBO management gave the time frame they ‘anticipated’ a lot of advance thought and also that they have the basic human decency not to pull a repeat again.
A lot of retailers who buy and hold probably know enough not to let the cash that clears burn a whole in their pockets and are timing their purchase to patterns they’ve seen for years. As long as we end in the green at all, today is a great day.
The run up we all want is the one that happens after news is released and taking that news into account as it is less likely to be so easily given back.