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This stock seems to trade in correlation to marijuana stocks. I think that is the most likely explanation for the action right now.
Looks like the exercise of the warrants is the best explanation for the decline. Can’t blame them for taking profits. I am a buy and hold investor here. My average price is about $1.50 and my time horizon is long. I’m not concerned at all.
Long term prospects have not changed. GLTA
Companies go into “quiet periods” before earnings announcements, so we are actually in a quiet period now until earnings are released. That is quite meaningless, however, since the company is still required to disclose material events if any happen. The quiet period just means they can’t have meetings with analysts or investors until the earnings release is public.
Yes. I would like to see them work with hops. I posted that on this board a few weeks ago.
Either way, it looks like we are entering exciting times with this company.
GLTA
I’m eager to hear the plan. I’d like more details on their plan to commercialize vln “within 90 days of fda approval.” Maybe hints of a partnership with a bigger company.
As for the “third franchise,” I have no idea, but I think gmo hops would be interesting.
The Reg. D filing is required for unregistered securities offerings. This looks like it is related to warrants given to HC Wainwright as part of the compensation for the recent registered private offering of shares. Those warrants are not subject to much regulation.
As far as I can tell, Sabby did not get warrants in the most recent round. Good sign. Might mean nothing ultimately, but good sign.
Unless there is a leak of a potential partnership, I think this run has to do with their 3rd drug candidate, BP1003 targeting STAT3. The preclinical data is very good for treating pancreatic cancer, which is a bigger market with less options than AML or CML. Pancreatic cancer has terrible survival rates. BP1003 can change that. That’s worth billions, if they can achieve it.
Now that the stock is not worthless, they can reasonably ask for millions of dollars a year from a potential partner. Part of the problem in the past was the value of the entire company was less than the needed investment from a potential partner. How can you negotiate for tens of millions of dollars from a partner when your market cap is $3 mil?
Now the market cap is around $60 mil. They only need 5-10 mil a year to advance these drugs. Hopefully they don’t give away the farm to get that cash.
Strong buy; Long term hold
Imagine if they announce a partnership with big pharma.
Looking at pre-reverse-splits pricing, this stock is still single digits.
North of $1000 is not unreasonable with the right developments.
The abstract for the poster presentation is available:
https://www.abstractsonline.com/pp8/#!/6812/presentation/1367
BP1003 has very positive pre-clinical results.
I'm not sure if that is what's going on today, but this upswing is a good start.
I’m glad to see new people here. Thanks for joining backstabbed!
At some point we will get an update on the phase 2 trial. We know they are dosing patients. We know the delivery system works. We know people have positive responses to prexigerbersen, with a certain percentage achieving complete remission. Hopefully that percentage increases with the new protocol.
Still holding long
I like and the price and volume action, but I wish I knew why it’s moving right now. Is this just a technical swing off a low? Shorts closing positions? Or do people know something that I don’t?
Good news needs to come out to sustain this swing to the upside.
Some insider buying would help too.
It’s not a scam. You can call the research centers where the clinical trials are happening and ask them about biopath and prexigerbersen.
We do have a huge problem however; we need at least $5mil to complete phase 2. We really need at least $10mil to get to commercialization.
An investor buying $10 mil of our stock will require a price around 0.50-0.60 per share. That would give this investor a controlling interest in the company. I’m not sure how BPTH will raise money, because they won’t make a deal like that.
$5mil @ 0.80 is 6 mil shares. Not quite a controlling interest but close. That also assumes they can get that price. A deal is more likely at a lower price.
Any amount of shares will cause dilution preventing a deal at the current price. To get the money we need, BPTH needs to practically sell the entire company.
Unless a licensing deal happens or they sell prexigerbersen itself, I think we might literally run out of money.
Nice! That explains the 15% price rise in one day.
Did anyone notice they rewrote the slide presentation? There is more info in it, but I'm not sure if any new info. Either way, it's a better presentation than before.
Maybe they bring in four more research sites to get to the 10 expected sites. With the interim results, we should be able to attract a few more cancer centers for this research. Then patient recruitment should go faster. This might depend on getting the protocols settled. Does anyone know anything on that front? Is that supposed to be a quick process or can we expect significant delay in getting the amended protocols?
When you google Bio-Path Holdings not much comes up outside of their own website and general stock market news sites. This message board, however, does come up in the google results. New investors are likely to google the company and they will find this board. I think this board does have an impact on the stock price, not much, but some impact. This small influence would be quickly counter-acted by institutional buying (who won’t care about anything any of us say). Until that institutional interest comes back, however, I’m on board with tempering the negativity for a while.
Prexigerbersen, so far, has demonstrated an ability to improve results for elderly patients suffering from AML over and above currently available treatments all with no toxic side-effects. We also have good pre-clinical and early clinical data showing therapeutic effect for CML and solid tumors. Eventually, Prexigerbersen will make it to the market and make a lot of money. I will be more confident when I see a partnership formed with a larger company. I think it will happen.
Agreed. They lack focus.
BPTH could make a business model out of what they have been doing: identifying protein targets and handling all pre-clinical and early clinical trials. This would be a valuable service to big biotech firms looking to expand their pipelines. Prexigerbersen has sufficient data at this point that a deal could be made. Unfortunately, we have such little cash that any deal right now would be lopsided. I don’t see a viable alternative, though. We need cash and a partner that can commercialize our products. I don’t really know, but perhaps that cash and partnership would cost 90% of future prexigerbersen revenue, maybe more? At this point, I think that is fair and I think the market would respond very positively to that sort of a deal. Perhaps $25 -$35 million paid out as milestones are reached? That doubles our current market value and provides a viable path forward for the company.
BPTH is supposedly looking for partner(s). I pray that a partner is found soon.
Still holding long.
Here is some good information about treatments for elderly AML patients, including LDAC and Decitabine:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3917925/
Technically, they far exceeded the primary end point of the interim analysis: They only needed 5 patients to respond to the therapy. The data was presented poorly. 17 instead of 19 is thinly veiled manipulation of the ratios. Of course being able to say almost 50% responded with stable disease or remission sounds better than more than 30%.
The problem is the lack of cash and lack of prospects for more cash. That's the bottom line job of the CEO, CFO, and President. Especially when those three are one person.
In their position they have no leverage in negotiations with investors or potential partners. Prexigerbersen has a billion dollar annual revenue potential, but what would it do to the stock if they sold prexigerbersen for 50 million? That's an immediate increase of market cap! That would be a good deal in these circumstances. That should not be a good deal! Management has fallen short so far. I hope they don't fall short in the future.
The science continues to perform, which PN did not invent. Let's see if the science will eventually win out. I continue to hold. This is not yet a sell.
Did you guys see this article:
http://www.drug-dev.com/Main/Back-Issues/DNA-THERAPEUTICS-DNAbilizeING-Antisense-1445.aspx
Even though we might still be in the shitter, at least it's not spiraling down.
That could be shorts covering who were hoping BPTH would be kicked off Nasdaq. Since it's clear that's not happening and the stock isn't moving downward anymore, I think some shorts just exited their positions. I did not, however, review any short interest information.
Continued delays with this company will eventually lead us right back into that downward spiral. I continue to hope something good happens.
Holding long.
Don't give them ideas!
Just kidding. I think the shorts need some sort of event to create enough volume for them to cover safely. I don't see such an event happening in the near future.
I'm glad to see some new names here. Perhaps that is a good sign. I remain hopeful.
Correction to my earlier post: Apparently they are presenting at BIO CEO conference on Feb 12th.
This new BOD member is an M&A lawyer. I think there is a deal in the works or maybe even ready to go, pending interim trial results. This is just a guess on my part, but a few things lead me to this guess. First this new BOD member - they need someone internally to manage a merger and make sure the paperwork is all good. Second, they stopped doing investor presentations. The BIO CEO conference is coming up where BPTH used to present, but they are not presenting this year. I’m not sure when the last presentation was, but BPTH seems to have lost any incentive to participate in these conferences - maybe because they found a suitor. Also, whoever is looking to acquire BPTH may have their Wall Street goons shorting us to the ground to keep the price down. I think a deal is in the works and maybe in the late stages.
Just a theory.
I think there is one more scenario where the stock can break through resistance caused by short sellers: partnership with an established biotech company. I'm not sure how likely or unlikely that is in the near term. I really hope they find a good partner.
It was in April 2015. The stock was in a downtrend and hitting about $1.25. They announced the orphan drug designation and about 6 mil shares pushed the stock over $2.00 in one day. I think the shorts then beat back down to the $1.00. That shows that the stock can move 50-60% in one day on good news. If the shorts were out of the way, then that rise could have continued.
Let's hope next time the it continues.
Bio Path's certificate of incorporation authorizes issuance of a maximum of 210 million shares. About 120 mil are currently issued, I think. So there are about 90 mil authorized but unissued shares. These are not actual real shares with value. The reverse split does not change the maximum authorized shares. So after a 10:1 rs, we will have 12 mil issued shares and 210 mil maximum authorized shares. That is normal and does not effect shareholder value, in and of itself. The market cap is measured by issued shares. Authorized but not issued shares don't really exist and thus have no value. It's not wrong to keep the max authorized shares the same after a rs.
If they suddenly issue a bunch of shares to themselves or one investor after the rs, for a low price or as "compensation," that would destroy shareholder value and we would have to sue them for breach of fiduciary duty. I don't expect this to happen, but of course I could be wrong.
I do expect good results soon, maybe 2 - 4 weeks from now - the dosing should be done by now on at least 19 patients. I'm not sure how long it takes to deem them evaluable.
Remember the spike in share price when they announced orphan drug status? I know it was short lived, but imagine the spike if FDA approves an accelerated process.
This is a good point. The University of Texas is the largest shareholder here, because the tech was invented there. It would be interesting to hear what they think about all this. Not sure how to get in touch.
Does anyone know if the people running the trials at MD Anderson were part of the original team that developed what is now called DNAbilize?
I agree with Run. No scam here, and lawyers are a waste of money at this time. If certain events or transactions transpire that wipes out the remainder of the value here, then we get lawyers.
Does anyone not expect interim results this quarter? Does anyone not expect those results to be good?
Put the guns down for a couple months, we don't need them yet, and hopefully we won't need them at all.
Also, Pat's synopsis, I believe, is spot on.
I expect we get an update on or around the meeting on the 21st. PN already stated that they have 19 or 20 patients enrolled on the last conference call. The full evaluation will take more time and bring us into the first quarter.
The drug has been working. No evidence to suggest, so far, that we have efficacy issues.
This company is tight-lipped. That is not necessarily a bad thing, because other development stage biotechs who were not tight lipped have been accused of pumping the stock artificially or some other wrongdoing.
Our low stock price reflects the limited resources BPTH has and limited progress made over the past 3-5 years. If we can show 40% complete remission rate in the interim analysis, than we should be able to solve both problems. The safety segment had a 50% complete remission rate. The comparison remission rate is 18%, I believe.
Hold on a few more months to see where we end up.
It is legally irrelevant that the number of shares authorized to be issued stays the same. Companies always have far more issuable shares and issues shares. That never means the company will automatically dilute shareholders.
If they actually issue so many shares that it substantially dilutes our value, then we can claim a breach of fiduciary duty. This company is very cautious; overly cautious, in fact. They won't simply dilute the company through excessive issuance of shares. That would also destroy the value of the 3.8 million shares held by the University of Texas where MDAnderson is based. That's not going to happen.
That provision, however, gives them a poison pill to prevent a hostile takeover.
Nevertheless, I voted no on everything up for a vote.
The timing of this stock dump and the number of shares is interesting. The notice of effectiveness for those 4.4 million shares was issued right before this started tanking (most recent tanking). The total number of shares traded over the past couple trading days is suspiciously similar to the number of shares covered by those new warrants.
I'm guessing Sabby, as the owner of the warrants, is playing a straddle trade. They already own some shares and the warrants for the long position, now they just opened a short position protected by the warrants. No matter what happens with the phase 2 results, they will make money.
Good question! I'm not sure.
If I understand it correctly, they just registered the underlying shares, not the warrants. I previously assumed they had to, but given the information you are presenting, it may not have been required and they initially did not intend to register either the warrants or the underlying shares.
Generally, once restricted shares vest, rule 144 no longer applies and they can be freely sold in the market. Perhaps there was some triggering event we are missing here? Or perhaps some side deal was made where BPTH agreed to register the shares. I don't know.
I'd have to look this up, but I still think BPTH is required to register the underlying shares. I don't think they have to register the warrants.
Anyway, warrants are a bad deal for any company. They generally encourage short selling or normal selling whenever the shares exceed the private offering price. Warrants allow an investor to get into a speculative stock virtually free of charge.
They issued these new warrants back in May as part of deal to get the warrant holders to exercise their old warrants, which brought in proceeds of about a million dollars. Those original warrants had an exercise price of .38. The new warrants have a exercise price of .60. They wanted the investors to exercise the warrants, but BPTH is not in a position to dictate terms. The resulting deal is that we replaced the old warrants with new ones for equivalent number of shares, but at a higher strike price. It's not a great deal, but we got the cash from the exercising of the old warrants and increased the strike price. The higher price could decrease shorting, because the higher price makes it more risky to use these warrants to cover the short. We are not getting fleeced, but again, not the best deal.
"This prospectus relates to the resale from time to time of up to 4,411,764 shares of our common stock, par value $0.001 per share, which are issuable upon the exercise of certain warrants held by the selling stockholders named in this prospectus. We are not selling any common stock under this prospectus and will not receive any proceeds from the sale of shares listed in this prospectus. We will, however, receive the net proceeds of any warrants exercised for cash in the future."
I believe the warrants were previously issued, but for some reason they needed to file this prospectus related to the underlying shares. BPTH may receive proceeds when the warrants are exercised.
But you still own shares, Snug9?