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Hats off to Justin for taking action.......Shareholders have rights and if there were by chance another deal to help finance & build this mine with plenty or little to no dilution, it should have been presented to the shareholders who have invested their hard earned bucks in this project....Many longs lost out by holding on and waiting for such, only to be sold out from management/special committee etc at a loss...If the only thing that gets accomplished is a big X on resumes, it would be worth it...If some financial support is needed in future to help the case, count on me...I would totally pay up!!!
they can do this...
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20150130/pdf/42w978glslfxg7.pdf
Does Africa even use SOP??? I know the largest user of SOP is China....So maybe Allana target China again like they used to with MOP??? Kinda sounds like that is already in the cards..
Not sounding to good......
Potash prices to fall to lowest since 2007, says Macquarie
15:32 UK, 11th Mar 2015, by Agrimoney.com
World potash prices are poised to fall to levels not seen since 2007 - a decline potentially fuelled by the break-up of the system of annual contracts with China and India, which act as key industry benchmarks, Macquarie said.
The bank forecast potash prices, as measured in the port of Vancouver, dropping to average $270 a tonne in the last quarter of this year, down from a current level of $305 a tonne.
By 2018, the potash price will fall further, to average $250 a tonne.
"We see no upside for potash prices over the next four years," Macquarie said.
Supply surplus
The bank highlighted the likelihood of a drop in demand this year, by 7.1% to 54.35m tonnes on its forecasts, after importers last year rebuilt inventories, buying more of the nutrient than they needed.
Global potash consumption rose 9.7% to 58.51m tonnes last year, but still remained 4.36m tonnes below output, on Macquarie estimates.
"In our view, much of this [surplus] is sitting in producer and consumer stocks."
The bank also noted weakness in currencies of major producing countries, notably Russia, allowing for softness in values of a product which is denominated in dollars.
"With key producer currencies falling, we fell pricing may have to move towards $250 a tonne on a spot basis to see any meaningful, sustained supply reaction," to curtail oversupply, Macquarie said.
'Contract system may not survive'
Furthermore, there is a growing likelihood that the system of annual contracts between potash exporters and China and India, which set prices for other buyers, will collapse, the bank said, noting the apparent impasse in current talks between negotiators from China and the major importing countries.
Producers such as Uralkali are reported to be seeking increases of some 10% from current prices of $305-335 a tonne, while Chinese negotiators are holding out for potentially a discount.
"Our view is for the balance of power to be skewed further towards the Chinese buyers for every day of delay, as the position of global potash producers weakens.
"High buyer inventories will… ultimately weigh on pricing."
With the views of buyers and sellers "increasingly divergent", there is an "increasing chance that the contract system itself may not survive 2015".
Share price implications?
The end of the contract system would be particularly damaging for producers, in reducing certainty over earnings which is likely reflected in stockmarket ratings.
After the end of the annual contracts in iron ore, Rio Tinto shares have traded at a ratio of 5.1 times earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (ebitda), compared with 6.7 times for the last five years while the system was still in place.
Shares in Brazilian miner Vale have fallen to 3.5 times from 4.7 times, on the same basis.
Macquarie's comments follow an acknowledgment last week by Oleg Petrov, head of sales at Uralkali, of the potential for China to seal only one contract this year with exporters, rather than the two it has often agreed.
"Given the fact that the contract has delayed, I would say that there is a risk that there will be only one contract this year and… volumes might be less than we saw last year," Mr Petrov told investors.
India vs China
There were in fact "chances for India", unusually, to settle a contract ahead of China, given that India "does not have a lot of inventory and there is a need for the contract to be signed".
And if India does sign first, this could put upward pressure on the values that China eventually pays, given the role of contracts from the two key importers in ending market uncertainty, and encouraging demand from other buyers.
"We believe that the one who is going to be the second will pay a high price because of the effect which the first contract creates," Mr Petrov said.
China's potash inventories start this year at some 4.5m tonnes, up from 3.0m tonnes a year before, on Macquarie estimates.
Wow is right!!!! Could possibly be reasons why soft commitments have yet to be inked and why SOP is getting all the attention at this time...Also kinda explains why management has taken a haircut with pay....and why maybe ICL needed 6 more months or so to make their decision as to further committing to monies etc....I think with potash pricing falling and not much recovery in sight , kinda making it hard for lenders to ink such deals....and then with the large potash companies and their announced plans/monies for expansion...could get really ugly...
Our view is for the balance of power to be skewed further towards the Chinese buyers for every day of delay, as the position of global potash producers weakens,” Macquarie said.
“In fact, we believe there is an increasing chance that the contract system itself may not survive 2015.”
The System Is Falling Apart
“We think the benchmark contract system in China will fall apart sooner or later anyway.
“We see no upside for potash prices over the next four years, given the premium paid above the cost curve, with key producer currencies falling we feel pricing may soon move toward $250/t on a spot basis to see any meaningful, sustained, supply reaction.”
http://www.forbes.com/sites/timtreadgold/2015/03/10/wave-goodbye-to-another-commodity-cartel-as-potash-goes-the-way-of-oil/
I don't subscribe.........but I just noticed Industrial Minerals put out an article today on Allana......
IM Agriminerals News in Brief 3–10 March
By JAMES SEAN DICKSON
Published: Tuesday, 10 March 2015
Allana Potash returns positive PEA results; Highfield secures electricity supply for Spanish potash project; CRP continues to pursue offshore phosphate project development; JDC Phosphate improves new phosphate production process.
Toronto-listed Allana Potash Corp. has announced positive results on the preliminary economic assessment (PEA) for its Danakil sulphate of potash (SOP) project in Ethiopia, suggesting a project capex of $787m and a total FOB loaded opex cost of $130/tonne SOP.
Prepared by ERCOSPLAN Geotechik and Bergbau GmbH, the 1m tpa potash...
Share bonus plan
In December 2011, the shareholders of the Company approved a share bonus plan whereby an aggregate of up to 2.5 million
common shares of the Company have been reserved for issuance to officers, directors and employees of the Company.
On January 28, 2013, the board approved the issuance and allocation of up to 1,845,000 common shares pursuant to the share
bonus plan, subject to the terms of the share bonus plan and final approval by the President prior to issuance on the following
dates:
April 1, 2013 - 461,250 common shares (valued at $0.46 per common share)
July 1, 2013 - 461,250 common shares (valued at $0.48 per common share)
October 1, 2013 - 461,250 common shares (valued at $0.45 per common share)
January 1, 2014 - 450,000 common shares (valued at $0.37 per common share)
On October 29, 2013, the board approved the issuance and allocation of up to a further 666,000 common shares pursuant to
the share bonus plan, subject to the terms of the share bonus plan and final approval by the President prior to issuance on the
following dates:
January 1, 2014 - 166,500 common shares (valued at $0.37 per common share)
April 1, 2014 - 166,500 common shares (valued at $0.435 per common share)
July 1, 2014 - 166,500 common shares (accelerated and issued on April 1, 2014, valued at $0.435 per common share)
October 1, 2014 - 166,500 common shares (accelerated and issued on April 1, 2014, valued at $0.435 per common share)
Pursuant to the share bonus plan, accelerated issuance was triggered by the ICL transaction for July 1, 2014 and October 1,
2014 scheduled bonus share issues. Total of 499,500 bonus shares were accelerated and issued on April 1, 2014.
The share bonus plan stipulates that in no event the issuance of both bonus shares and stock options combined shall exceed
10% of the Company's issued and outstanding capital.
During the year ended July 31, 2014, an amount of $413,980 (July 31, 2013 – $290,813) is included as stock-based
compensation expense related to the fair value of the portion of shares vested during the period for directors, officers and
consultants engaged at the corporate level. During the year ended July 31, 2014, an amount of $238,970 (July 31, 2013 –
$142,762) is included in the consolidated statements of financial position as exploration and evaluation asset related to the
fair value of the portion of shares vested during the period for officers and consultants engaged at the site level.
It does matter ...........It really does...when they get those performance "Bonus" shares, it dilutes the shareholders.........It's kinda like reaching into the investor's pocket.........Maybe we should refer to it as "profit sharing" cause many investors are sharing their profits with management :0)
These insider buys that are listed are more Freebie shares(BONUS), where the actual insider besides ICL paid nothing out of pocket to get these shares.....well, a few coughed up a few dollars for some cheap options and Ricky bought a few shares on the open market once..........
came across this article Feb 13,2015......
http://circumminerals.com/sites/default/files/Mining_Journal%E2%80%93_Brad_Mills_Stephen_Dattels_reveal_potash_progress_0.pdf
So this of course is reason for Financial Advisor.....exciting :0)
volume has picked up and .385's almost all gone now........
I am not referring to the MOP...If it was in best interest to spin off the SOP as per Financial advisor to maximize shareholder value, best way to do it is to get an AIM listing....
No.....Not seeing this as a negotiator whatsoever........I would think to use a financial advisor to maximize the value of SOP potential for shareholders would be for reasons such as an AIM listing....the reason why I am leaning this way is because they never mentioned the name of the advisor which is unusual for companies when releasing such info........To Get an AIM listing they would need a PEA and some money and a Financial advisor......
It's quite healthy to see a quick pop at open and then the fall in sp with profit taking....It allows for a new cycle of shares to bring a new rally....the volume this morning on the profit taking speaks this :0)
On such a great PEA announcement, it seems to be lacking direction.......Are they going to do FS or not???? Are they planning to produce both MOP & SOP from the same brine??? also sounds like the AST is complete, so more news coming??? Also sounds like they are still evaluating alternatives to maximize the value of both MOP & SOP.......
Allana has retained a financial advisor to assist the Company in its evaluation of various options to maximize the value of the SOP potential for Allana shareholders."
Try again... two things that stand out in the PEA NR.........
In the PEA, ERCOSPLAN recommends additional flotation testwork and an additional solution cavern to produce brine for further evaporation testwork, to facilitate a Feasibility Study evaluating the potential to concurrently extract both MOP and SOP from the same brine field. Additional studies currently in progress including an Aquifer Stress Test (AST) and Solution Well #3 (SW3) will provide valuable information for this evaluation. The AST is intended to confirm the viability of Allana's long-term water supply by pumping water at greater than planned production rates from one of the projected water supply fields for an extended period, now complete. SW3 is a production-scale solution well currently in operation to supplement experience from the pilot-scale solution well work from the Feasibility Study, and to produce brines from the Kainitite horizon through to the Sylvinite horizon to optimize solution mining configurations for the Project.
and
The SOP operation provides an option, if a second feasibility study incorporating SOP proves positive, to complement or expand upon the MOP operation and various production scenarios will be under evaluation.
So, a couple of things that caught my attention in the NR this morning
In the PEA, ERCOSPLAN recommends additional flotation testwork and an additional solution cavern to produce brine for further evaporation testwork, to facilitate a Feasibility Study evaluating the potential to concurrently extract both MOP and SOP from the same brine field. Additional studies currently in progress including an Aquifer Stress Test (AST) and Solution Well #3 (SW3) will provide valuable information for this evaluation. The AST is intended to confirm the viability of Allana's long-term water supply by pumping water at greater than planned production rates from one of the projected water supply fields for an extended period, now complete. SW3 is a production-scale solution well currently in operation to supplement experience from the pilot-scale solution well work from the Feasibility Study, and to produce brines from the Kainitite horizon through to the Sylvinite horizon to optimize solution mining configurations for the Project.
and
The SOP operation provides an option, if a second feasibility study incorporating SOP proves positive, to complement or expand upon the MOP operation and various production scenarios will be under evaluation.