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Interesting. I guess if one still has shares of XLPI it will go 1 for 50.
Did I read it right that the restricted shares they are planning on issuing are going to the Now Enterprises shareholders and the Royalty Program Participants? Would rather not have any more restricted shares of spinoffs in my account.
You make some good points and who knows, the stupendous market cap losses may just be indeed temporary. This time it just feels different to me, I can't put my finger directly on it. But, again, no one can predict the future and one can't let one's day-to-day observations of the stock's behavior inform feelings about possible events 4-5 years out. I was a little more dogmatic and sure of myself than normal yesterday and that's not like me. I certainly hope for the current stakeholders that things turn out well but it's going to take a long time and the Wall St ingrained attitude toward energy is going to have to be severely shaken apart (along with a major rebound in oil)..
Agree that it's a critical component. I also believe that the writing is on the wall for all to see. Just look at the tremendous market cap losses to any one of these offshore drillers in the last few years, accelerating exponentially this past year. Wall St. will never value these companies highly ever again (think coal) and the majors will eventually buy up all or nearly all of what's left of them in the next 4-5 years and simply fold them into their overall operations, saving themselves huge costs. It's a new world and IMO there won't be a recovery in these drillers.
I think the target is $10.00 from $15. I believe that by early Fall at the latest RIG will slide into the single digits. 2016-17, again, IMHO, will see a huge change to the face of the offshore industry--i.e., there will be major mergers and acquisitions and probably some co's that go away. The industry won't die completely but it will be a shadow of its former self by the end of the teens.
This thing will retest if not exceed the low area from March--$13.18. I think it's quite probable that it will touch into the single digits sometime later in the summer/early fall. Just too many headwinds, Greece, Iran, Eurozone, constant downgrades and negative sector outlook, etc. The whole of Wall St is trying to move the energy sector into extreme lows. If I were contemplating a long position in this I would wait at least until the RSI dips into the teens, at least for a short bounce. All IMHO.
per year
Your smart friend is right. You should avoid any major investment here probably until late spring/summer or later, if ever. First the div will get cut or eliminated, you can be sure of it. There will be lower revenue forecasts and, as oil keeps dropping, so will the EPS estimates for RIG and all of the drillers. I would say this stock will probably flirt with the upper single digits sometime this year before it can make any kind of recovery. And there's no guarantee there will be one. It could just be a single-digit midget till kingdom come. So much technical damage has/will be done to the stock plus all of the credit issues/belt tightening, hugely lowered outlook and forward EPS forecasts that, IMHO, Transocean will probably be lucky to ever see the mid-20's again, even if oil eventually recovers to the 70-80 range.
This year, 2014, will be remembered as the year when oil stocks started their "new era" of a radically shrunken business due to the glut of oil and dropping demand. The company's business models and stocks will be hugely negatively impacted by the plunging price of crude and the resulting collateral damage to the overall world markets will be the big theme of 2015. Oh and FYI, Transocean is a Swiss company and is incorporated in Switzerland.
Good God, haven't looked at the oil patch for a while but holy moly! Are these stocks, RIG, NE, ESV, DO, SDRL, are they all going bk due to the price of oil and frackers? You'd think so from these PPSs. I thought the miners drop and the coal stocks were bad, and they are/were but these driller companies are trading at tiny PEs and are half book or less. It reminds me of a going out of business sale and since they're all pretty much trading with similar hopelessness (DO looks to be the exception--seems they have a deep pockets benefactor) I wonder what the next 6-12 months will look like. All I can say is wow.
All the offshore drillers were having a second decent day til the overall market bled into their bounce.
Maybe yesterday was the turn, good day for all the drillers today too.
Nice chart. Looks like an official decade low for RIG. And getting lower by the second. Thanks for posting.
I drew a simple channel line down the top of the candles going back to the Mar high at around 5.80 to today's close of 3.11 and we're at a real inflection point here. If it can manage to break above 3.20 or so, there's a chance that it can get above the upper channel line, start an upward trajectory and establish a new trend. Stock is overdue for good news.
Until this anyway, we'll have a bit more downside to go it seems. Can't believe this co let this go. Wow.
http://biz.yahoo.com/e/140613/znga8-k.html
What do you think? Is this a bottom?
Morgan Stanley upgraded it from Underweight to Equal-weight.
CEO said things are looking great for the year, chart is oversold, what's not to like? Oh yeah, the "smart money" is cashing in their "winners" on the NAZ and everyone suffers, regardless.
CONN looks like it's making its move along with lots of options activity.
CONN pinching massively on daily
Is that a bottom--9.85 intraday on 9 Dec??
This one is as oversold as it is hated.
Does this EVER bottom? Still at it two weeks after your post. Looks like renewed heavy selling for the past couple of days. Does someone know something? Wow!
50 Day MA (5.38) giving this thing trouble as usual.
Today's action is really making me start to think that the analysts are truly anticipating some good numbers coming from the company. To be acting this way in a down market is pretty remarkable for this stock. The volume isn't great but the sellers just seem a lot less interested.
Next resistance areas are 5.45, 5.50, 5.60 and 5.75 (roughly the top of the current ascending channel), then blue skies and 2011 levels. Not saying it's going to get there but that's the basic technical setup.
RF Micro Devices recommended on strong Spreadtrum numbers at Northland
"Northland recommends buying RF Micro (RFMD) on strong Spreadtrum (SPRD) numbers and said RF suppliers will benefit from strength in low-end Chinese smartphones. The firm adds that Omnivision (OVTI) and InvenSense (INVN) should benefit from strong image sensors and gyroscope volumes."
Maybe this stock can now follow through for more than one day.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/rf-micro-devices-recommended-strong-132459912.html
Another Charter Equity Upgrade link:
This gives a bit more insight into the "Strong Buy" component:
http://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/RF+Micro+Devices+%28RFMD%29+Wins+Content+in+iPhone+5s+-+Analyst/8402696.html?si_client=st
Not a clue. But didn't DA Davidson have a target of 7? Maybe in that neighborhood or a little higher.
Here's the note from their website:
"Big wins on iPhone 5S will likely boost prospects in 2H13. Upgrade to STRONG BUY. (June 10, 2013)"
http://www.charterequityresearch.com/Coverage/RFMicroDevicesRFMD/tabid/65/Default.aspx
yep looks like today's presentation was received with the usual who cares? so the lower part of the channel is looming. Dropped below the 50 today so it's all downhill for a while.
Looks like this one is starting to go opposite of market now--it should have recovered and bounced with the NAZ but didn't. Funds are hitting the bid in a major way. Look for a possible pullback to the 5 area. Just can't find enough buyers to offset the profit taking.
Chart looks like it's setting up. PSAR flipped positive, MACD looking to maybe crossover positive and it's above the zero line. Stochastic on an upward trajectory.
Stock just got an upgrade to Buy with a $7.00 PT from DA Davidson, Hmm...what else, ADX (not pictured) green line crossed above the red line. Price is now solidly above the 50 day SMA.
Stock ended in the green on a very bad market day and would probably have had a solid white candle had the market been positive or less negative.
Might just about be there chart-wise, RSI, MACD, Stochastics in the dirt, volume fallen way off.
Wondering...
Started looking at this as the chart is so oversold...will this news be good for the PPS?
Gold Stocks: Its Time To Be BRAVE!
Some food for thought:
http://www.themarkettrendforecast.com/forecasts/gold-stocks-its-time-to-be-brave/
Chart
The daily, weekly and monthly stochastics are uniformly "in the dirt". From a purely TA perspective, this is the time to buy or scale in. Rarely do you see all 3 time frames so consistently oversold. Amazing to see though how stubborn the sellers/shorts still are. No telling when the turn happens but TA is saying it's here or nearly here.
He bought a bunch of GDXJ calls and increased holdings of GDX.
It would also appear that a new all-time, split-adjusted low is coming.
Spinning Top
Anyone notice the perfect little spinning top candlestick on NUGT today? Good time for a trend change, maybe we'll see some follow-through.
These miners are going to have to go the route of the nat gas suppliers--simply cut production and wait for supply and demand to kick the price back up. It's obviously hopeless for the POG for now.
Chart saying 18 again.
Ughhh
Gold is just getting annihilated.
ABX struggling to stay above the 10 day SMA of 20.04 but I'll predict that we're in for yet another round of pain here. I wouldn't be surprised to see this thing head back into the 18's and maybe new lows sometime in the next couple of weeks. And no I'm not short just looking at the chart and the new "strong dollar" MSM yakking that's no good for POG.