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Of Watchers and billions
When Watchers come out, they do that in numbers
A beautiful thing, not unlike a groupdance
They polish their mojo, it no longer slumbers
Required a leader to utilize that chance.
A leader has vision, persists in his planning
Not flustered to peaces by simmering hearsay
He reports as required, is subject to scanning
Do this correctly then be there to stay.
Next stop?
Only week(s) from pivotal Sunworks newsrelease, the window is closing.
I don't consider myself educated enough to assess any such documentation properly and therefore leave this to the patent office. What I do know is that Jim Nelson has been open about his application. His innitial optimism, later altered, but still being worked on, which is not abnormal for any patent application. This latest development can only be interpreted as possible positive for the technology.
Sounding worked up is not the right strategy. Makes people think that you are worried. Really, not smart. I can give the phonenumber.
This is all about ownership
Observation : Jim Nelson is building a efficient machine and is moving away from obscurity and previous underdog position.
Prediction : The intensity will increase, objection will become louder, because this sector is extremely important and Sunworks is making an impression. Q2 will be pivotal.
Advice : I have some advice for those that are saying ‘Ludicrous’to the cell-technology.
My grandmother was a wise person. Not as bright as Albert Einstein, but smart enough. She used to say : “If you want to move a donkey, don’t push its behind, grab the tale and pull.”
Means act counter to the obvious, it might have a suprising result.
Here’s my suggestion:
If you say Jim Nelson’s claims are outrageous and surreal , give him the patent! I say “make him prove it!” It will be a win situation for you in every way. If Jim is right, you should also be happy as everybody else, because it would bring a solar panel with substantially improved efficiency. You could say you contributed and it would even benefit your own situation. If Jim is wrong, then you would have proven your point. He would only be spending money on nothing.
So, you should be in favour of granting the patent to Sunworks. In fact you should shout it from every rooftop. Slamdunk.
There is one minor catch. If you really are afraid he’s right…. Ah well, then you’re in trouble, in a state of conflict. But that’s not the case, right? So, just be smart and avoid a possible embarrasment in August. Just friendly advice.
Window is closing
State of play
I think we are moving towards a later stage in the game of Sunworks moving from unknown startup to mainstream company. Why call it a game you might ask? Well, because that’s what it is. A serious game containing a lot of money, but a game none the less. A game of buying in cheap and establishing substantial ownership in future growth in a booming industry which will continue to do just that. This game is being run by people with substantial resources and this is about important markets for the direct future (just a personal opinion). In the mean time the real world is that of every day business Sunworks performs in and reports about, obviously.
Let’s take a look once again at the state of its affairs in random order :
The celltechnology is real and alive. It has presently no priority because of present market-opportunities to find a manufacturing partner and the integration business needs considerable attention if you want to do it successfully, which is understandable. The patent state of affairs might also have something to do with it, but we don’t know this for sure. In August (or later) though, we can speculate that it might possibly be together with Q2 results, there is major development expected in the China application. A succesfull grant will also have impact on the other 3 applications (Singapore, India, USA). This might already be the case (speculation).
Business results are ever improving. During conference calls Jim Nelson has been reporting about it as he is obligated to do. Profitability being a important ingredient, because it is important and it sets him apart from competitors. On top of that he has been telling us how he is improving efficiencies continuously. Rightly so, because establishing this company as major competitor means creating an efficient delivery machine. All this is actually not unimpressive.
Dilution has been real and was explicitely presented by the company as part of their growth strategy. It appears to be working.
Expansion has been top priority. Latest development is establishing a foothold into Oregon and the company is in talks with three takeover candidates. Having the ambition to acquire all three. Development of the shareprice has a profound effect on that, it is a the linking pin. Believing in the growth leads to shareprice increase, which leads to more growth by acquisition. Making Sunworks a more attractive partner. Belief/doubt is key for succesfull buying in cheap, which is the game going on. Isn’t that cute.
Utilizing a proprietary racking system as additional revenue stream is under construction.
All in all impressive, don’t you think? Well, I think so. I think Sunworks is on its way to becoming a major player. Obviously Q2 results will be telling and planned as another step on that road to mainstream, making it harder and harder to deny. Ever improving results combined with major development in bringing the cell technology to market will be irresistable. Which brings me to the conclusion that the window for deeper pockets to buy in cheap is closing, because there will be less and less opportunity to cause doubt in the muddy market.
What to do about Tom & Dick?
This is a good question. As investor you should never restrain yourself from new information, surely. Discussions between Tom and Dick do sometimes bring precisely that. But, there are certain bounderies you shouldn’t go beyond. Number one naturally is never let emotion rule your assessment. That guarantees failure. Number two is not listening to untruth, especially sources who have a history of delivering untruth. Not helpfull. Next to these obvious rules, I think a handy approach looks something like this:
Comprehension :You need to have some understanding about the item, have a clue so to say. Otherwise, it would be wise to obtain some understanding first.
Importance : Assess the importance of the item in your investment equation. Not important ? No further need to give it your attention.
Knowledge : This is about your own knowledge. Simply put: if you know better, no further need to give it your attention.
Agreement: Establish if Tom and Dick are in agreement about the item. Giving it a status better than a single opinion.
Add : Add the item to your own investment equation and decide what to do next. Does it alter your previous decision?
I think you could do considerably worse than going with Sunworks. In my opinion this company is going places. Be well and watch your G-spot.
Typical conversation in front of Sunworks solar designcenter
Meet Tom and Dick..
Tom : How big is your Sunworks Solar system?
Dick: 6000
Tom : What?
Dick: Exactly!
Tom : I don't understand..
Dick: It's what you said..!
Tom : I didn't say anything!
Dick: Yes, you did!
Tom : What did I say?
Dick: Exactly!
Tom : You're crazy, I asked you how big your system was..?
Dick: .....etc.
The Sunworks discovery…
I believe the short-term window of opportunity on Sunworks is closing. That is why I decided to write down my thoughts in some different words. Stepping away from your normal routine sharpens the mind and it’s more fun that way.
My slightly different contribution:
Today I thought I saw a hummingbird, my heart just jumped
My whole village cried out “YOU FOOL, they don’t exist”
Your imagination is playing with you, it’s got you pumped
Well, repetitive denial never phases me, I simply persist.
My nephew, little investor, questioned me true
The village is in turmoil, he said, like crazy season
Tell me little investor, I replied, would I lie to you?
He didn’t know, which was exactly my reason.
I think the village will recover, less quarrels no diddle
I expect it will prosper and live with the bird
It’s there to stay and will nest in the middle
Denying that future will truly be absurd.
The Sunworks discovery has opened my eyes
It provokes my imagination, I’m following its progress
Major attention would definately be wise
It shouldn’t attract anything less.
One more time...
There are business results and there is muddy Wallstreet where a lot of misinformation is floating around, with people taking advantage of that fact. Which culminates in a disconnect....every time.
Reason: We are dealing with a startup.
This company is going places.
These are trying times, but also very exiting times. What to do as investor?
Well, if I may make a suggestion:
I would rely on what I know to be true. Some food for your thoughts
The renewable energy revolution is exploding all over the world. The signing of the Paris agreement was only last december and the evidence of explosive developments since then is overwhelming.
Ttraditional fosil fuel companies are increasingly in a tight spot. With companies going bankrupt, other companies sacking large parts of their workforce (example: Shell just announced the sacking of another 2200 people, bringing the tally of announced redundancies over 2015 and 2016 to 12500. The reason given was to stay competitive)
All this while the smarter companies in the renewable sector are growing like mad.
It’s becoming more clear what the right businessmodels are for this revolution and there is more and more reporting in the media about it.
Sunworks is a company which uses the right model and is also being mentioned in those media.
All the rest is a bit muddy if you ask me.
If I were you, I would not listen to anything but common sense and that voice in the back of my head. Remember, there is a lot of noise in your ear because there is a tremendous amount of money involved.
I think this company is going places, but that’s just me.
Never use a single source and although you don’t want to admit it, you have a tough task and you are vulnerable. We all are by nature Gullible creatures, susceptible to yelling especially when you don’t know enough. Take care of your G-spot. Good luck.
Could this have anything to do with their serious talks with three takeover candidates, one of them possibly east coast? I'm just guessing... (I am pretty new to this game....maybe one of you can explain it to me?)
This company is going places part 2
The Sunworks ship has left the harbour and is well on its way, doing pretty well as a business. That much, I think, has been established. To contribute a little clarity to the situation, I would like to try and describe the muddy waters called Wallstreet it is sailing in. In danger of being called ‘shallow’, I do like to keep it simple. It just works better that way and otherwise I probably wouldn’t understand my own thinking anymore. Which would not be good.
There are basically three parties involved on Wallstreet.
The first party is the company, in our case Sunworks represented by its captain Jim Nelson, presenting its case to you the investor. Hoping you will climb aboard.
The second party is the investor, that’s you. You are trying to decide who the hell captain Nelson is and what his ship looks like.This is hard for you as I hope to establish a little later on in this text. You need help.
The third party is a larger party. It contains all the people offering opinions, information and non-information to you the investor. It’s a bit shady group and consists of many different characters. Some call it the fifth column, but that would deny the diverse nature of the group. As it is the third party, let’s call it the third column.
For now I would like to talk a little bit more about the most important party of the three, the investor. You.
As I said before, you have a difficult task. To make things even more difficult, there is one important element which usually is not mentioned. It has everything to do do with you being a human being. I call it the G-factor. As a human being you are by nature Gullible. Especially in situations that are new to you. That’s not a insult but just a well established observation. When you have no information or not enough information or, even worse, wrong information, you will be easy prey. The Gullibility-factor plays a important role on Wallstreet. In fact, you could call it Wallstreets G-spot. For you, as investor, this is important to know. So, when I yell ‘SHARK’, it’s important to not run away immediately. You should first ask yourself: Can this be? Where did this information come from? Is it credible? And if it is a possibility, did you know there are over 500 types of sharks swimming around. The vast majority is definately not lethal. On top of that, the amount of shark attacks are a lot lower then you might think. I looked it up in Wikipedia. Relying on a single source from the third column is never a good idea.
In this framework I will now come to a question: Do I think captain Nelson is deceiving everybody? Is he a shark about to attack? Well, no upto now I don’t think so. I think he wants to operate his ship for a lot longer, and he just started. I also think, as a human being mr Nelson should be and will be kept honest. We all need help in this. If you decide to become a shareholder, you do have some tools for that. As a matter of fact, if you do have real questions about this, you should probably ask him. He himself will most likely be a bit busy, but he does have a handy group of people working for him. It’s called investor relations. Call them. That would be revealing. They are also obligated to not lie to you. That would be very detrimental to the ship once it comes out. Don’t forget to tell everybody your findings. As fine point I should also mention that the people from the third column are not bound by those rules.
My last remark for now is about the phrase ‘the market is always right’… Taking into consideration the three parties the market consist of, I think this is highly debateable.
By the way, I am not Jim Nelson, nor do I work for him. Your gonna have to believe that. But, technically I do belong to the third column because this is my opinion.
Next time I want to talk about that third column. There are interesting things to say about it and result probably in food for discussion. Good luck and take care of your G-spot.
This company is going places.
I love the phrase that something or someone is going places. It’s promising something, it’s about being successfull. It tells you a lot, has a very positive sound to it and at the same time it tells you absolutely nothing. But it makes you curious, it makes you want to find out: Where is this going?
Way back in the stoneage people had to be self-sufficient, otherwise they would not survive. So, energywise, people made their own fire. After centuries in our modern world I believe energy in the form of electricity in the end will become free again. There is no sane argument against the contention that the sun belongs to nobody and therefor everybody should be able to use it for free. It’s like the air that we breath, simple as that. Energy has become a convoluted topic because in the energyworld there were and are too many people getting very rich taking advantage of the situation. And this has been going on for a very long time. Now with solar becoming real, the goal of free energy can only be reached by making people self-sufficient again, becoming their own supplier. That is because, again, there will be a lot of people trying to take advantage of the situation. Wretched little things people are, but this is how it is. If you ask me, I would prefer by far the company who is being upfront about its actions and making me self-sufficient at the same time. All this leaving the climate change argument aside for the moment obviously. It only adds to the argument.
The residential installation business is without a doubt a race for becoming the most efficient delivery machine. The companies who can not keep up, will be left by the side of the road. Sunworks is now telling us that they are delivering twice as fast as before. This is of substantial importance. It is a double-edged sword. Not only gives this the customer a improved experience of receiving the purchased product much quicker, this doubles the installation capacity of the company. I don’t care who you are but as a customer, if you deliver the same product twice as fast as the other supplier, I will take your product every day of the week and twice on Sunday. Jim Nelson and his team know all this! Compare this with any other final customer facing industry and you will see the same thing: Speed is a key for success. Delivering that fullfilling product to the customer as quickly as possible.
Another side of this venture is that being successfull in the businessworld and being successfull on wallstreet are two different things, right? In our world, in a lot of cases, the two are married to each other. Its a marriage with a lot of hickups. On wallstreet its all about perception. How investors perceive your case and this is muddled by all sorts of available opinions of people, all with their own agenda. Very muddy indeed, especially with startups and in my opinion Sunworks is to be seen as precisely that, despite the fact that the the individual parts of Sunworks have been in business for much longer. Making a startup grow is not easy. In a interview Jim Nelson gave on Fox News the host, Neil Cavuto, opened up the segment with a remark that Sunworks might be the next poster child of solar energy. I don’t know if Jim Nelson realy wants to be just that, nor do I know if he wants to become the biggest solar integrator. For the moment he surely is not. What I do know is that he wants to become the most profitable one while delivering exactly what his customers want and he is letting us know this too every time he gets the opportunity. Some people believe he does this too much. Lets say this is a personal view. In actual fact he is not doing too badly on the profitability part, especially in comparison to his peers. To make it even more challenging, now he is beginning to give us insight into his operation. Well, this is either very silly or a confident move. For the moment and this is my perception of the situation, I will lable this as confident because I simply don’t have any evidence to the contrary. That makes it marketing 101, saying what you will do and actually doing what you say. The oldest and well travelled way to going places. Stay tuned for what will follow, I surely will. For the moment all cudos to Sunworks.